美联储发布美国经济状况褐皮书显示，由于关税等因素导致经济不确定性增强，多个地区的前景明显恶 化。 ...

美联储理事库格勒：经济不确定性并非来自美联储。 ...

IMF：自去年秋季以来，由于经济不确定性加剧，全球金融稳定风险已大幅增加。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - European stock indices opened cautiously after the Easter long weekend, with the DAX index down 0.3%, CAC 40 down 0.2%, and FTSE 100 nearly flat, reflecting fragile market sentiment [1] - Investors are grappling with economic uncertainty stemming from President Trump's unpredictable trade policies, which have created a tense market environment [1] - In the week ending April 16, investors net bought $11 billion in European stock funds and $3.6 billion in Asian stock funds, while U.S. stock funds saw an outflow of $10.6 billion, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards different markets [1] Group 2: Economic Policy and Central Bank Actions - U.S. major indices fell sharply as Trump raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, calling for the replacement of Chairman Jerome Powell and advocating for "preemptive rate cuts" to avoid economic slowdown [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in March, seeking "greater clarity" before making any adjustments, while Powell noted that tariffs could likely lead to a temporary rise in inflation, adding to market confusion [3] - The European Central Bank (ECB) recently cut rates for the seventh time in a year to support the struggling Eurozone economy, which faces significant impacts from U.S. tariffs, leading investors to bet on further rate cuts due to the region's weak economic outlook [3] Group 3: Corporate Developments - Roche announced plans to invest $50 billion in the U.S. over the next five years, expected to create over 12,000 new jobs, including nearly 6,500 construction jobs, marking one of the largest foreign investments since Trump's new tariff policies [4] - Mercedes-Benz launched a new all-electric luxury van segment called "Vision V," showcasing the company's innovative efforts in response to market changes [4] - Tesla is anticipated to release its earnings soon, with expectations low due to competitive pressures and backlash against CEO Elon Musk's far-right political stance, making the earnings report a focal point for market attention [4] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices rebounded on Tuesday after a significant drop the previous trading day, with Brent futures up 1.2% to $67.04 per barrel and WTI futures up 1.4% to $63.27 per barrel, despite ongoing cautious sentiment due to global economic uncertainty from U.S. trade tariffs [5] - Both benchmark oil prices had previously fallen over 2% as Iran and the U.S. agreed to begin expert-level discussions on a potential nuclear agreement, reflecting the complex and volatile nature of the global economic landscape [5]

金十数据4月22日讯，富国银行分析师周一表示，根据他们打探到的行业消息，云计算巨头亚马逊 (AMZN.O)也开始推迟部分租赁数据中心的承诺，这也被视为经济不确定性影响科技公司支出的最新征 兆。今年早些时候微软(MSFT.O)也被多次传出取消数据中心租约。 亚马逊被传放缓数据中心扩张 ...

美国反复无常的关税政策不仅严重破坏国际经贸秩序，干扰企业正常生产经营和人民生活消费预期，更 让包括货币政策在内的宏观政策调控，在面对经济不确定性前景下显得无所适从、反应滞后。 美联储主席鲍威尔近日在芝加哥经济俱乐部发表讲话，传递出对货币政策可能陷入既要遏制高通胀又要 支持经济增长的两难担忧。他感慨生活瞬息万变，做判断非常艰难。美联储的抉择隐忧，与当前贸易环 境面临高度不确定性有很大关系。美国政府宣布所谓的"对等关税"不仅大超市场预期，政策的反复无常 更是让市场信心急转直下。对于厌恶不确定性的金融市场而言，应对不明朗前景的做法就是规避潜在风 险。美国金融市场近期出现的"股债汇"三杀，正是全球投资者对美挑起的关税战投下的否决票。 美联储对经济前景的担忧，也是市场的普遍担忧。不安的深层原因是当前世界政治经济格局正在经历深 刻变化。 当前，货币与通胀、增长、就业之间的关系更加复杂，金融市场剧烈波动与国际局势、各国经济政策调 整复杂互动，这也让各国央行的前瞻发力难上加难。一个明显的变化趋势是，主要经济体央行的货币政 策调整更多体现为宏观数据依赖，在宏观数据明朗之前，即便一些结构性数据已经反映出经济变化的苗 头，但一些央 ...

日本央行行长警告美国关税政策将加剧不确定性 金十数据4月14日讯，日本央行行长植田和男周一表示，由于美国的关税政策，全球和日本的经济不确 定性已大幅上升。"美国关税可能会通过多种渠道给全球和日本经济带来下行压力。"植田和男对国会表 示。"日本央行将从可持续实现2%通胀目标的角度出发，适当引导货币政策，同时不带预判地评估经 济、物价和金融形势。"植田和男说。 ...

智通财经4月9日电，日本央行行长黑田东彦称，由于美国关税的影响，国内和海外经济的不确定性正在 加剧。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the industry, indicating that the industry stock index is expected to perform in line with the benchmark [35]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% and will slow the pace of balance sheet reduction from $60 billion per month to $40 billion per month starting in April 2025 [1][4]. - Economic growth forecasts have been downgraded by 0.4 percentage points to 1.7% for Q4 2025, while inflation forecasts have been adjusted upward, with the PCE and core PCE rising to 2.7% and 2.8% respectively [4][12]. - The uncertainty surrounding economic growth has increased significantly, with the labor market showing resilience despite some soft data indicating a slowdown [3][4]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Overview - The Federal Reserve's decision reflects a cautious approach due to rising economic uncertainty and inflation concerns, with a focus on monitoring economic indicators closely [1][3]. - The employment market remains stable, with low layoff and hiring rates, indicating resilience in the labor sector [3]. Economic Forecasts - The Federal Reserve has adjusted its economic forecasts, lowering GDP growth expectations while raising inflation and unemployment rate predictions [4][12]. - The committee's projections indicate a higher risk of downward pressure on growth and upward pressure on inflation, reflecting a more cautious outlook [13]. Monetary Policy Guidance - The Federal Reserve has signaled a potential for two rate cuts in 2025, but the timing and extent of these cuts will depend on economic performance and inflation trends [3][4]. - The committee's focus on economic uncertainty suggests that any significant changes in monetary policy will be data-driven [20][21].