. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/6/11 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Vujicic stated that it is currently unclear whether the U.S. tariff policy exerts deflationary pressure or inflationary impetus [1] - The ongoing turbulence in U.S. policy is prompting investors to shift their focus towards the European market [1] - The ECB is considering waiting for new economic forecasts and data before taking further action [1]

Core Viewpoint - Methanol futures have shown a slight increase in price, with a weekly fluctuation of 2.49%, while inventory levels are rising both domestically and internationally [1][2]. Market Overview - As of June 5, methanol inventory at East China ports reached 292,600 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from May 29 [2]. - Domestic methanol production facilities operated at 74.52% capacity, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points from the previous week, but an increase of 5.09 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Institutional Insights - According to Guotai Junan Futures, the macroeconomic environment remains uncertain due to U.S. tariff policies, and the market is entering a seasonal low demand period [3]. - Ningzheng Futures noted stable coal prices and high domestic methanol production expectations, with port inventories continuing to rise [3]. - The short-term price forecast for methanol futures suggests a range of 2,220 to 2,320 yuan per ton, with potential resistance at 2,290 yuan [3].

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 125,000, and aligning closely with the average monthly addition of 149,000 over the past year, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [1] - The private sector contributed significantly to job growth, adding 140,000 jobs, with the service industry being the largest contributor, indicating a solid foundation for economic growth [2][3] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations, reflecting strong wage pressure in the labor market [2] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on Employment - The manufacturing sector, particularly those sensitive to tariffs, saw a reduction of 8,000 jobs, marking the largest decline this year, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The actual unemployment rate slightly increased, with approximately 71,000 more people unemployed in May, indicating a rise from 4.187% in April to 4.244% [4] - A notable decrease in labor supply was observed, with about 625,000 individuals leaving the labor market, contributing to a decline in the labor force participation rate [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic impact of tariffs is becoming evident, with a slow and mild growth deceleration trend expected to continue unless significant unexpected events occur [5] - The labor market remains relatively stable despite the challenges posed by tariffs, with the Federal Reserve focusing on the unemployment rate as a key indicator for economic health [3]

当地时间6日，意大利国家统计局发布2025至2026年经济前景展望，预计2025年该国经济增长0.6%， 2026年增长0.8%。报告称，美国关税政策将对全球贸易和经济增长前景产生负面影响。意大利国家统 计局预测，到2025年下半年，美国关税不确定性将有所缓解，但当前依然对企业信心构成影响。2025年 全球经济预计将出现放缓，随后在下一年趋于基本稳定，主要原因是美国贸易政策持续变化带来的不确 定性，以及严重的地缘政治紧张局势。(央视新闻) ...

放眼全球市场，自美国关税政策调整后，整个运动行业都受到了强烈的冲击。耐克2025财年第一季度北 美市场收入在汇率不变基础上同比下降11%；阿迪达斯2025财年第一季度北美地区的销售额仅增长 3%；彪马2025年第一季度北美地区销售额下滑11.1%；Geox健乐士2024年财年业绩中北美市场营收下 降11.9%...... 21世纪经济报道记者 高江虹 实习生 魏琳 北京报道 6月6日，加拿大运动品牌lululemon（纳斯达克证券代码：LULU）发布了2025财年第一季度财报，展现 强劲的增长势头。在第一季度，公司全球净营收同比增长7%至24亿美元，在各个渠道、品类，以及包 括美国在内的所有市场均实现了增长。其中，国际业务净营收增长19%，中国市场业务净营收同比增长 21%，在固定美元汇率基础上，净营收同比增长22%。 值得注意的是，尽管财报数据显示美洲地区净营收增长3%，但受到美国新一轮关税政策带来的风险， 美洲地区的可比销售额下降2%，按不变汇率计算下降1%。 而从纵向对比来看，这已不是lululemon第一次在北美市场上业绩表现不佳，2024财年全年美洲地区净 营收增长4%，显示出美洲市场消费疲软。Lu ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Co-Creation Turf (605099.SH), has experienced a significant stock price increase, with a 58.00% rise over five consecutive trading days, which is notably higher than the Shanghai Composite Index [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company's products are primarily export-oriented, with an expected 88.62% of revenue coming from overseas in 2024 [1] - Revenue from leisure turf and sports turf for 2024 is projected to be 2.052 billion and 594 million respectively, accounting for 69.93% and 20.25% of the main business revenue [1] - Domestic business revenue constitutes 10.8% of total revenue, with leisure turf being the main source of income [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The company is closely monitoring the uncertain U.S. tariff policies and will assess their specific impacts, taking flexible measures in response [1] - The recent increase in interest in the Jiangsu Province urban football league is noted, but the company believes that domestic football events will not significantly impact its operations and performance [1]

奥地利央行预测奥地利2025年的通胀率为3.0%，明年为1.8%，但警告其预测存在"较高的风险"，原因 是"不稳定"的美国关税政策。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that CounterPoint Research predicts Huawei's smartphone shipments will increase by 11% year-on-year in 2025 [1] - The uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies has led to a downward revision of the global smartphone shipment growth forecast from 4.2% to 1.9% for 2025 [1]

新华财经上海6月4日电（葛佳明）近期，大类资产市场走势出现了一系列与传统定价机制相悖的状况。 黄金与美债传统收益率的负相关关系失效，美债收益率持续走强，美元则走弱，而美股却在美债收益率 不断上升的状况下持续上行。 美国"股债汇"定价模式转变背后，可以窥见美国的短期通胀问题与长期债务风险，投资者对于美国信用 的担忧，进而令美元承压，而对美股来说，投资者可能更关注市场中的流动性状况，定价的"锚点"正脱 离传统利率水平。 美元、美债走势大幅背离 从历史上看，美债收益率与美元走势通常呈现出同向波动的情况。当美国经济运行良好时，企业盈利攀 升，推动股市等风险资产吸引力上升，使得美债需求下降，美债收益率攀升。在上述情况下，美元也会 同步受益于美国经济的强劲状况，国际资本进一步涌入，增加美元的需求。 但自今年4月以来，因美国关税政策反复，美国10年期国债收益率已从4.16%升至4.42%，而美元指数则 下跌超5%。美元汇率与美债收益率之间的关联性降至近三年最低水平。 一方面，2025财年（2024年10月到2025年4月）以来，美国财政赤字规模整体超预期，而关税以及美国 总统特朗普的减税法案则会对未来的赤字路径产生影响，预 ...