东 海 研 究 东 海 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年5月12日 [Table_Title] 4月通胀环比回升且符合市场预期 [table_main] [Table_Report] 4月CPI同比降幅维持不变且符合市场预期。上游端国际大宗商品价格总体有所下降，但 内需型商品价格在基建以及消费等内需政策支持下整体有所改善，价格中枢短期变化不 大，PPI降幅高于市场预期；4月份，消费政策刺激加强而且由于食品价格以及服务价格回 升，CPI环比上升，同比降幅维持不变且符合市场预期，但短期通胀仍旧较低。目前随着 天气回暖，基建项目开工有所加快，钢材、水泥等需求逐步恢复，但房地产需求仍旧偏弱， 国内工业品需求整体偏弱；短期随着美国对中国加征高额关税，内需型商品价格在消费等 内需政策支持下整体有所改善，价格中枢短期变化不大。国外由于及OPEC+增产以及美国 关税政策导致需求预期下降，原油价格整体下降；海外商品需求上升、美元走弱以及美国 加征关税导致成本上升，有色价格整体震荡反弹；但4月之后随着美国"对等关税"政策 落地，美国进口成本大幅上升，海外商品价格中枢整体上移。整体来看，上游国际大 ...

Core Insights - The main factor driving the decision to vote is the progress of domestic inflation rather than U.S. tariff policies [1] Group 1 - The focus on domestic inflation indicates a prioritization of local economic conditions over international trade issues [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the export sector, focusing on companies like Longxin General, Chuncheng Power, and Taotao Vehicle, among others, in the context of the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the Chinese and Southeast Asian export supply chains [2][3]. Key Company Insights Longxin General - Achieved record high performance in Q1 2025, with net profit accounting for 73% and a dividend yield exceeding 4% [1][4]. - Revenue from the European market's infinite business grew over three times year-on-year, with a growth rate exceeding 130% [1][4]. - The company is expanding into South America and Southeast Asia through its "One Plus N" strategy, anticipating greater overseas growth this year [1][4][5]. Chuncheng Power - Increased overseas production capacity, successfully ramping up production in Mexico [1][6]. - Plans to launch new 625V dual-cylinder and 500 four-cylinder entry-level products, focusing on Italy, Spain, and emerging markets like Argentina and Colombia [1][6]. Taotao Vehicle - Reported a revenue growth of approximately 20% for high-performance electric golf carts, with profit growth nearing 70% and sales doubling year-on-year [1][12]. - North American inventory reached over 20,000 units, with minimal impact from anti-dumping tariffs due to new models being produced in Vietnam [1][12][13]. Integrated Drive Company - 90% of orders are produced in Malaysia and the U.S., with less than 10% from China, thus limiting the impact of U.S. tariffs [1][10]. - Initiated price negotiations, expecting customers to bear 14% of tariffs while the company absorbs 10%, with a potential profit impact of approximately 30-50 million yuan for the year [1][10]. Yindu Co. - Experienced a revenue decline in Q1 2025, but profit growth was influenced by non-recurring gains [2][17]. - Implemented a phased price increase of 10% to cover tariff costs, expecting net profit to improve [2][19]. - Entering large chain customer lists, which expands market size and enhances profit margins [2][22]. Additional Insights - The U.S. tariff policy has created significant uncertainty for companies, particularly those with high exposure to the U.S. market or those with production in high-tariff countries [2]. - Companies with strong performance guarantees and low U.S. exposure, like Longxin General and Jiechang Drive, are better positioned to navigate these challenges [2]. - The overall profit forecast for 2025 is optimistic, with expectations of reaching 1.8 billion yuan, despite uncertainties from U.S. tariff fluctuations [2][8]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights the resilience and strategic adaptations of companies in the export sector amidst changing tariff landscapes. Companies are focusing on expanding overseas production, launching new products, and adjusting pricing strategies to mitigate the impacts of tariffs while aiming for significant growth in emerging markets.

Group 1 - In April, China's total goods trade imports and exports increased by 5.6% year-on-year [7] - The e-commerce logistics index in China continued to rise in April [9] - The number of exhibitors at the Fourth China-Central and Eastern European Countries Expo is expected to reach a new high [10] Group 2 - The first national standard for evaluating the brand value of the elderly care service industry has been released and implemented [12] - The seventh batch of new occupations and job types has been announced in China [11] - The Yangtze River fishing ban has achieved phased results [13]

Core Viewpoint - The confidence of small business owners and consumers in the U.S. is declining due to the current U.S. tariff policy, which is significant as small businesses employ two-thirds of the American workforce [1] Group 1 - Dan Nathan, head of the investment consulting firm "Risk Reversal," highlights the negative impact of U.S. tariff policies on small business confidence [1] - The decline in confidence among small business owners is a critical indicator of broader economic health, given their substantial role in employment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. tariff policy has a minimal impact on the overall business of Liancheng CNC, as the company has few direct customers in the U.S. [1] Group 1 - Liancheng CNC stated that its projects in the U.S. are proceeding normally and have gained significant market recognition [1] - The company's project in the U.S. is the largest investment in the photovoltaic industry, which enhances its negotiation power for future market expansion [1] - The excellent performance of project equipment will support the company's future growth in the U.S. market [1]

最近，作为全球第三大运动鞋零售商、两度入选《财富》500强的斯凯奇（SKECHERS），其退市消息于2025年5月空降微博热搜，引发市场 震动。 2025年4月25日，斯凯奇发布的一季度财报成为退市导火索：中国市场销售额同比下滑16%，全球营业利润下降11.3%，创下新的季度营销 纪录，同时，该公司取消了今年的业绩指引，原因是美国的全球贸易战颠覆了企业的计划。 公司撤回全年业绩指引，斯凯奇在一份声明中称："由于全球贸易政策带来的宏观经济不确定性，公司目前不提供财务指导，并撤回我们在 2025年2月6日发布的2025年年度指引。" 同时，斯凯奇在SEC文件中明确警示，全球贸易政策变动对其业务构成重大风险。斯凯奇称，美国市场占斯凯奇全球销售额的38%，但其进 口产品超六成来自中国、越南等亚洲国家。关税政策导致采购成本大幅攀升，挤压利润率。 斯凯奇表示，关税推高终端价格，削弱价格竞争力，可能会减少消费者需求并影响销量。财报显示，2025年一季度，斯凯奇美国市场增速 (6.9%)已落后于国际市场(7.2%)。 4月29日，斯凯奇联合NIKE（耐克）、ADIDAS（阿迪达斯）等76家美国鞋企向白宫联名致信，要求豁免 " ...

Group 1: Commercial Real Estate Investment Trends - The Asia-Pacific commercial real estate investment in Q1 increased by 20% year-on-year to $36.3 billion, marking the highest first-quarter investment since the start of the 2022 interest rate hike cycle [1] - All real estate sectors, except for industrial and logistics properties, saw increased investment, indicating that investors are making rational decisions based on objective fundamentals [1] - In Hong Kong, commercial property transactions over HKD 50 million totaled $850 million, a decrease of 17.8% year-on-year, with the investment market remaining subdued due to high interest rates [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Investment and Market Outlook - The Asia-Pacific region recorded $8.6 billion in overseas capital inflow in Q1, a significant increase of 152% year-on-year, the highest for the same period since 2019 [2] - Japan remains a favored market for foreign investment, attracting $13.7 billion in foreign capital in Q1 2025, a 20% increase year-on-year, despite rising interest rates [2] - The investment sentiment is expected to remain subdued in the short term due to high borrowing costs exceeding investment returns, although potential U.S. interest rate cuts and economic stimulus measures in China could improve investor confidence [2] Group 3: Economic Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies - U.S. tariff policies are anticipated to impact the economies of several countries, particularly those heavily reliant on exports to the U.S., such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and South Korea [3] - The weakening economic growth outlook in the U.S. may lead to reduced leasing and investment activities in commercial real estate, affecting demand for office spaces and retail performance [3] - Despite challenges, structural trends such as rising e-commerce penetration and an expanding middle class are expected to support internal trade in the Asia-Pacific region [3]

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical risks and economic decoupling are reshaping the global commodity market landscape, necessitating precise market trend predictions for companies to seize opportunities during transformations [1] Group 1: Event Overview - LSEG will co-host a high-profile industry seminar with LME on May 19, 2025, focusing on U.S. tariff policies, global supply chain resilience, and the upgraded role of Asian markets [2] - The event aims to analyze core drivers of the metal market, technological innovation pathways, and potential growth spaces, gathering authoritative figures from the metal industry and trade sectors [2] Group 2: Agenda Highlights - The seminar will include guest registration, opening remarks, and a networking session, starting at 15:00 and concluding at 19:00 [4][5] Group 3: Data and Insights - Commodity data is a valuable resource, and obtaining the right information at the right time is crucial for success in commodity trading [7][8] - Each data point, from oil storage levels to grain quality in the Black Sea region, adds critical information to global trading decision-making processes [9] - Utilizing structured approaches to leverage fundamentals, supply and demand, vessel tracking, reserves, and alternative data sources can provide traders with a competitive edge [10] Group 4: Trading Solutions - LSEG offers specialized trading software and insights into energy, agriculture, and metal markets, enhancing competitive advantages in commodity trading [11][12] - The company has one of the largest commodity databases globally, supported by a strong analyst team and exclusive partnerships, streamlining the end-to-end workflow in commodity trading [13] Group 5: Sector-Specific Solutions - Energy trading solutions cover a global ecosystem of oil, gas, electricity, coal, and carbon assets, supported by exclusive partnerships with major data providers [15][16] - Metal trading solutions utilize comprehensive data and analysis methods, including machine learning and AI, to predict market trends across various metal markets [17][18] - Agricultural trading solutions leverage robust fundamental data and alternative sources to forecast price trends, ensuring reliable information for soft commodity trading [19][20] - Shipping trading insights are provided through a team of maritime experts, offering unique perspectives on global shipping transactions [21] Group 6: Data Aggregation and Digitalization - LSEG specializes in standardizing and structuring multiple data sources to generate actionable insights, ensuring reliable solutions for global trading companies [22] - The company ensures access to required information in any digital format, integrating proprietary or third-party data flexibly [22][23]

【环球网科技综合报道】5月8日消息，混合动力汽车的强劲需求预计将支撑丰田的稳定利润。据路透社报道，这家全球汽车制造商将于周四公布年度收益， 但投资者仍将高度警惕任何可能受到美国关税影响的迹象。 路透社表示投资者将密切关注丰田将如何应对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税对其未来利润的影响，这些关税政策将对在美国开展业务的汽车制造商造成沉 重打击。 该估计并未考虑特朗普关税带来的更广泛影响，包括潜在的美国经济增长放缓，或丰田汽车从加拿大和墨西哥向美国出口的影响。据了解，丰田在这两个国 家设有生产基地，生产一些最畅销的车型。 另一个值得关注的点是丰田将如何评价丰田工业公司。此前，该汽车制造商上个月证实，正在考虑投资收购这家关键零部件供应商。 东海东京情报实验室高级分析师杉浦诚司表示："重点在于截至2026年3月的财年指引。我不知道特朗普的关税是否会被纳入考量。" 根据伦敦证券交易所调查的七位分析师的平均预期，丰田第四季度的营业利润将同比增长 2%，达到 1.13 万亿日元（78.6 亿美元），这将是该公司三个季度 以来的首次营业利润增长。 但杉浦诚司表示，受关税政策影响，丰田汽车对美出口业务或将产生波动，该公司 2025 ...