Group 1 - The Shanghai gold spot price on July 17 was quoted at 772.80 yuan per gram, showing a discount of 3.48 yuan per gram compared to the futures main price of 776.28 yuan per gram [1] - The U.S. June PPI year-on-year was reported at 2.3%, below the expected 2.5%, with the previous value revised from 2.60% to 2.7% [1] - The U.S. June core PPI year-on-year was reported at 2.6%, below the expected 2.7%, with the previous value revised from 3.00% [1] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 95.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 4.1% [2] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in September is 43.7%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 54.0% [2] Group 3 - The recent U.S. PPI data was unexpectedly low, primarily due to a cooling in service prices, which alleviated market concerns over the previous CPI rebound [3] - The market remains cautious about future inflation trends, with the potential for the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts if the labor market remains stable [3] - Precious metals are expected to maintain high volatility amid uncertainty regarding inflation rebound and economic weakness risks [3]

Inflation Data - The US June CPI year-on-year increased to 2.7%, matching expectations, while the previous value was 2.4%[7] - The core CPI year-on-year was 2.9%, slightly below the expected 3.0% and up from 2.8% previously[7] - Energy prices saw a month-on-month increase of 1.0%, reversing from a previous decline of -2.4%[7] Economic Outlook - The strong inflation data suggests that the Federal Reserve may not lower interest rates in Q3 2025, increasing the risk of "stagflation" in the US economy[5] - If July's non-farm employment and inflation data diverge again, the Fed may face a choice between stabilizing employment and controlling inflation[5] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, US stock markets remained flat, while US Treasury yields and the dollar index rose, and gold prices fell[5] - The market's expectation for a rate cut in September has decreased, with the probability now at 53.5%[10] Sector Analysis - Core goods prices increased year-on-year from 0.3% to 0.7%, with apparel being a major contributor[7] - The housing market continues to cool, with housing prices year-on-year dropping from 3.9% to 3.8%[7] Risks - Risks include potential inflation expectations rising due to US tariff negotiations not meeting expectations, and a downturn in the US economy and employment exceeding forecasts[6]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed would likely have adopted a more accommodative monetary policy if not for the tariffs imposed by Trump [1] - The Fed has maintained its key lending rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% since December of the previous year, with potential for two rate cuts by the end of 2025 according to the dot plot [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut in July are low, with over 76% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged [1] Group 2 - President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Powell, calling for rate cuts and suggesting that Powell's actions have been detrimental to the economy [2] - Trump believes that lowering rates to 1% to 2% could save the U.S. up to $1 trillion annually, arguing that the current economic conditions do not warrant high rates [2] - Powell has reiterated his intention to remain in his position and has stated that he cannot be forced to resign by the President [2] Group 3 - Following the Fed's June rate decision, global market risk appetite has improved, but volatility is expected to remain high due to ongoing uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and inflation risks [3] - The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 29-30, with a 23% chance of a rate cut and a 78% chance of a cut in September according to CME Group's FedWatch tool [3] - A potential rate cut to around 2% could have significant and far-reaching impacts on the global economy [3] Group 4 - Historical trends suggest that Fed rate cuts often exacerbate financial market volatility, as lower funding costs may lead to increased acquisition of undervalued assets globally [6] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices indicate that expectations of rate cuts provide important support for non-yielding assets like gold, with COMEX gold prices nearing $3,350 per ounce [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **U.S. inflation data** for April and its implications on trade negotiations, particularly with **China**. The focus is on the impact of tariffs on inflation and the broader economic outlook. Core Insights and Arguments - **Inflation Trends**: April's CPI data indicates moderate inflation, with energy prices rising due to increases in natural gas and electricity, offsetting some declines in oil prices. Retail oil prices remain stable, but the processing and distribution sectors face significant price pressures [1][2]. - **Core Goods Performance**: The overall month-on-month growth rate for core goods in April was approximately 0.06%, indicating no significant tariff pressure. However, prices for goods closely related to exports from China, such as entertainment products, sports goods, and toys, have shown notable rebounds. Additionally, furniture and household goods have also seen expanded month-on-month growth rates, suggesting that tariffs on Chinese imports are beginning to exert supply-side pressure [1][2][4]. - **Core Services Resilience**: Rent remains resilient, contributing to the rise in core service inflation. In contrast, other service categories, including entertainment, airfare, and hotel prices, continue to decline, indicating a cooling in the service sector and labor market [1][3]. - **Tariff Impact on Inflation**: The transmission of tariffs to inflation remains unclear, but merchants are adjusting prices in response to disrupted expectations. The outcome of U.S.-China trade negotiations will be a critical variable affecting this transmission process. Current tariff levels are approaching the peak seen during the Great Depression, raising concerns about stagflation risks in the U.S. [1][3][4]. - **Trade Negotiations**: The U.S.-China trade negotiations are highlighted as a significant focus for the future, especially for consumer goods heavily reliant on Chinese imports. The imposition of higher tariffs on these goods will likely have a direct impact on consumer prices, such as CPI and PCE. The U.S. has imposed higher tariffs on Chinese goods compared to other regions, making the negotiation outcomes crucial for future economic pressure transmission [4][5]. Additional Important Content - **Federal Reserve's Stance**: The Federal Reserve remains in an observation phase, with no significant issues in hard data like non-farm payrolls or GDP. If June's non-farm data shows resilience, the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the first half of 2025 may be low, although the market anticipates potential cuts starting in September [2][3]. - **Potential Economic Impacts**: If tariffs continue to suppress consumer purchasing power, this could further affect service demand and employment growth. The balance between trade policy changes and economic performance will be critical for the Federal Reserve's future decisions [3][4].

Group 1 - The A-share market sentiment has improved, with major indices opening higher following constructive progress in the China-US trade talks [1][11] - In April, China's exports showed resilience, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1%, despite a significant decline in exports to the US [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April turned positive, driven by rising food and travel prices, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) continued to decline [3] Group 2 - The Chinese government has introduced a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the capital market, stimulating domestic demand, and supporting the real estate market [6][7] - The People's Bank of China has implemented a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate reductions to lower financing costs for enterprises [7] - The US Federal Reserve is maintaining a wait-and-see approach, with no immediate plans to change interest rates amid rising economic uncertainties [11]

Domestic Macro: Important Dynamics and Focus Points - The Politburo meeting at the end of April indicated that incremental policies will be introduced based on the situation, with potential for timely reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [1] - Attention is needed on whether relevant policies will be implemented, as well as the impact of significant overseas data releases and changes in US trade policies during the May Day holiday on domestic markets [1] Overseas Macro: Key Data and Policy Impact - The US continues to signal trade easing, with new trade policy signals being closely monitored for their market impact [1] - During the May Day holiday, the US will release GDP data for Europe and the US for Q1, along with April non-farm payroll and PMI data, which are critical as they represent the first monthly data following US tariff policies [1] - The potential cooling of the economy could either bolster optimistic rate cut expectations, enhancing global risk appetite, or raise concerns about US stagflation risks, putting pressure on risk assets [1] Stock Indices: Mixed Signals and Range-Bound Expectations - The A-share market has recently rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around 3300 points, driven by increased external demand pressure and the implementation of domestic policies [1] - The resilience of the index is supported by macro policies aimed at stabilizing employment, but there are concerns about insufficient domestic fundamentals and ongoing disturbances from US tariff policies [1] - The market is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations influenced by performance disclosures and the interplay of policy expectations, trade policies, and earnings reports during the period from late April to mid-May [1] Gold/Silver: Market Disturbances and Uncertainty in Trends - The easing of the US-China tariff conflict and potential agreements in the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical situation have reduced risk aversion, leading to alternating rebounds in risk asset prices and high adjustment risks for precious metals [1] - However, enhanced expectations for US rate cuts and the continued low levels of the US dollar index and real yields on US Treasuries provide some support for precious metals [1] - The upcoming release of key US economic data during the May Day holiday will be crucial, as it could influence rate cut expectations and subsequently impact gold prices, with potential for fluctuations based on market sentiment regarding US stagflation risks [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the commodity futures market, maintain a long - term bullish view on gold, while prices of coking coal and polysilicon are under pressure [1]. - In the stock index market, the A - share market is expected to show a volatile and slightly upward trend in the short - term, with a clear upward trend in the long - term [2]. - The bond market is expected to trade in a range, with optimistic sentiment but high valuation pressure [2]. - Precious metals are expected to trade in a high - level range due to high macro uncertainties [2][4]. - Non - ferrous metals are generally expected to trade in a range, with different influencing factors for each metal [3][4]. - Lithium carbonate and silicon energy are expected to be weak, with a supply - demand imbalance [5][7]. - Black metals are expected to trade in a range before the holiday, with the focus on the implementation of the crude steel reduction policy [7]. - Coke and coking coal have different trends, with coking coal in a supply - surplus situation and coke in a price - increase negotiation stage [8]. - Soda ash and glass are expected to be weak, with soda ash having short - term support but a long - term downward trend, and glass facing increasing inventory pressure [8]. - PTA is expected to have limited upward price movement due to insufficient demand and cost support [9]. - Crude oil is expected to trade in a range due to multiple uncertainties [10]. - Methanol and polyolefins are expected to decline, with factors such as supply and demand changes and approaching option expiration [10][11]. - Rubber is expected to be weak, with a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Futures - **Gold**: Due to the increasing risk of stagflation in the US in the second quarter, hold the previous long positions of Shanghai Gold AU2506. The long - term upward drive of gold is clear, and it is recommended to hold the previous long positions of AU2506 and sell out - of - the - money put options AU2506P752. Silver also has strong support, and it is recommended to hold the sold out - of - the - money put options AG2506P7500 [1][4]. - **Coking Coal**: With limited downstream restocking and high coal mine inventory pressure, hold the previous short positions of coking coal JM2509 [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Due to the expected weakening of the fundamentals, hold the sold call option positions of polysilicon PS2506 - C - 40000 [1]. 3.2 Stock Index and Bond - **Stock Index**: Before the holiday, funds are cautious. The A - share market has a short - term policy support and a long - term upward trend. IC and IM have greater elasticity, while IF and IH are relatively stable [2]. - **Bond**: The bond market is strong, with loose funds and no clear incremental policies. There is no bearish expectation in the macro - aspect, but high valuation pressure exists before the clear easing of monetary policy [2]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is expected to continue a wide - range oscillation pattern due to uncertain tariff policies, a tight supply at the mine end, and cautious mid - term demand expectations [3][4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The alumina has a clear upward pressure due to the unchanged over - supply pattern and potential cost reduction. The Shanghai Aluminum is expected to continue to oscillate with limited fundamental driving factors [4]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is in a range - bound pattern with upward pressure and downward support. New orders are recommended to wait and see before the impact of the Indonesian policy becomes clear [4]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate is loose, and the strategy of selling call options should be continued [5]. - **Silicon Energy**: The silicon energy industry is in a supply - surplus situation, and the low - price state will continue [5][7]. - **PTA**: The PTA price has limited upward space due to insufficient demand and cost support [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price is expected to oscillate due to uncertainties in trade, geopolitics, and production decisions [10]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price is likely to fall, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [10]. - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin price is expected to decline as the demand enters the off - season and production increases [11]. 3.5 Black Metals - **Rebar**: The rebar price will continue to oscillate before the holiday. The focus in May is on the crude steel reduction policy and the marginal change in the supply - demand structure. The option strategy is better than the single - sided futures strategy [7]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The hot - rolled coil price is expected to oscillate before the holiday. The focus in May is on the marginal change in exports and the crude steel reduction policy [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price will oscillate before the holiday. It is recommended to hold the sold out - of - the - money call options and wait for a clearer production - limit policy [7][9]. 3.6 Coke and Coking Coal - **Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal is loose, and the previous short positions can be continued, with cautious investors taking profit before the holiday [8]. - **Coke**: The coke price is in a price - increase negotiation stage, and the futures price is expected to bottom out [8]. 3.7 Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash has short - term support but a long - term downward trend. It is recommended to hold the previous short positions of the 09 contract and adjust the stop - loss line [8]. - **Glass**: The glass price is expected to decline gradually, and it is recommended to hold the previous short positions of the FG509 contract and lock in some profits [8]. 3.8 Rubber - The rubber market has a supply - increase and demand - decrease expectation. It is recommended to continue the strategy of selling call options and pay attention to consumption - stimulating measures before the holiday [11].