投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 10 月 21 日） 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 宽幅震荡 | 短线资金止盈意愿 VS 中长期政策 利好预期 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：宽幅震荡 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡小幅上涨。沪深京三市全天成交额 17513 亿元，较上日缩量 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - A股主要指数收盘普遍上涨，三大指数全天高开后维持震荡态势，沪深两市成交额大幅回落，全市场超4000只个股上涨，行业板块普遍上涨，通信、煤炭板块大幅走强，有色金属板块逆市领跌 [2] - 海外方面，特朗普在关税政策上的松动对市场风险偏好有一定修复；国内方面，经济基本面有喜有忧，政策端市场关注二十届四中全会对“十五五”规划的安排，预计以发展新质生产力为主线 [2] - 9月工业生产支撑经济，通缩压力减缓，通胀预期回升有提振作用，但中美贸易问题困扰市场，宏观层面不确定性大，前期估值偏高的中小盘股面临回调压力，建议暂时观望 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: IF主力合约（2512）涨至4506.8，环比+22.2；IH主力合约（2512）涨至2970.4，环比+8.8；IC主力合约（2512）涨至6909.2，环比+44.2；IM主力合约（2512）涨至7059.2，环比+35.0 [2] - **Futures Spreads**: IF - IH当月合约价差为1547.8，环比+16.2；IM - IC当月合约价差为165.6，环比+25.6等 [2] - **Futures Positions**: IF前20名净持仓为 - 27,364.00，环比+774.0；IH前20名净持仓为 - 16,222.00，环比 - 185.0等 [2] - **Basis**: IF主力合约基差为 - 31.4，环比 - 2.4；IH主力合约基差为 - 4.5，环比+0.3等 [2] 3.2 Market Sentiment - A股成交额为17,512.95亿元，环比 - 2031.13；两融余额为24,293.85亿元，环比 - 278.11等 [2] 3.3 Industry News - 前三季度国内生产总值1015036亿元，同比增长5.2%；9月规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.5%；1 - 9月全国固定资产投资同比下降0.5%等 [2] - A股主要指数收盘普遍上涨，海外特朗普关税政策松动，国内经济基本面有变化，政策端关注二十届四中全会 [2] 3.4 Key Data to Focus On - 10月24日15:15 - 16:30关注法国、德国、欧元区、英国10月SPGI制造业PMI；20:30关注美国9月CPI、核心CPI；21:45关注美国10月SPGI制造业PMI [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, Sino-US frictions have deepened, which will affect the stock index trend, especially high - valuation technology stocks. The stock index is expected to undergo an adjustment, but the decline may be weaker than that in April, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic. In the long - term, the domestic market is driven by liquidity, with a continuous influx of incremental funds, so there is still upward momentum [3]. - The US is entering a new interest - rate cut cycle, which is beneficial for RMB appreciation and the return of foreign capital, bringing new incremental funds [9]. - Current policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, and the bottom line of the stock index is clear. New technologies and new consumption are promoting the stabilization and recovery of economic expectations [9]. - After the risk - free interest rate drops to a low level, the entry of medium - and long - term funds and residents into the market will enter a new cycle [9]. - In the future, attention should be paid to trading volume. If the trading volume of the two markets can remain above 2 trillion yuan, the market can still maintain relative strength. It is recommended to focus on semiconductor, AI computing power and other technology growth tracks with profit certainty, and also pay attention to the rotation allocation value of low - valuation defensive sectors such as finance, securities, and consumption [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices declined, with the ChiNext and STAR Market experiencing significant drops. For example, the STAR 50 index fell by 6.16%, and the ChiNext index fell by 5.71%. Among global indices, the NASDAQ index rose by 2.14%, and the Hang Seng Tech index fell by 7.98% [12][17]. - By industry, the trends of the 31 Shenwan primary industry indices were divergent this week. A few sectors such as coal, banking, and food and beverage rose, while sectors such as media, electronics, and telecommunications led the decline [17]. Liquidity - In September, government bonds supported social financing, the return of wealth management products promoted the recovery of M2, while M1 remained sluggish. The M1 balance decreased by 7.4% year - on - year, with the decline rate widening by 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month, and it has been in negative growth for 7 consecutive months. The "gap" between M1 and M2 continued to narrow [15][16][18]. - The core support for the increase in social financing in September came from government bond issuance, while the weakness of RMB loans was the main drag, indicating that the recovery of real - economy financing demand still takes time. In September, the new social financing increment was 3.76 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 372.2 billion yuan. The balance of outstanding social financing was 402.19 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%, with the growth rate slightly declining by 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month [18]. - The funds rate (DR007) remained low, and 300 billion yuan of MLF was injected in September. The yield of 10 - year government bonds was around 1.7% [18]. Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, the trading volume of the two markets decreased, and high - priced stocks adjusted. The average daily trading volume (MA5) decreased to around 2 trillion yuan. Liquidity is an important factor supporting the current index and needs continuous monitoring [28]. - From January to August 2025, the number of new accounts opened showed fluctuations. For example, 1.57 million new accounts were opened in January, and 2.86 million in February [28]. Index Valuation - As of October 17, 2025, the absolute valuation of the index was at a low level. For major stock indices, the valuation quantiles were in the order of CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > SSE 300 > SSE 50 [36]. - The stock - bond cost - performance ratios and their quantiles of major stock indices such as SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and SSE 300 were also presented, providing a reference for investment decisions [42]. Index Industry Weights - As of June 30, 2025, in the SSE 50 index, the weights of banking, non - banking finance, and food and beverage were relatively high, at 21.34%, 15.48%, and 13.88% respectively. The electronics industry became the fourth - largest weighted industry [45][46]. - In the SSE 300 index, the weights were more dispersed, and the top three weighted industries were banking, non - banking finance, and electronics [46]. - In the CSI 500 index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - banking finance [46]. - In the CSI 1000 index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computer [46]. Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - Domestic policies: In 2025, the government work report and the Two Sessions in March set an economic growth target of 3% and a CPI increase target of around 2%. A moderately loose monetary policy and a more proactive fiscal policy were implemented, with a planned deficit rate of around 4% and the issuance of 1.8 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. In May, the deposit reserve ratio was reduced by 0.5 percentage points, the policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, and the provident fund interest rate was lowered by 0.35 percentage points. A 500 - billion - yuan loan for service consumption and elderly care was established. In September, the achievements of the financial industry during the 14th Five - Year Plan were summarized, and further reforms in the capital market were promoted [51][52]. - US Federal Reserve policy: The US is about to enter a new interest - rate cut cycle, with a 25 - basis - point cut in September. As of October 19, the probability of another rate cut in October exceeded 30%, and there are still two expected rate cuts within the year [53]. - Sino - US relations: China's implementation of "long - arm jurisdiction" and strengthened rare - earth control exceeded US expectations, and Trump countered by imposing additional tariffs. A video call was held between China and the US on October 18, which may affect market risk appetite in the short term [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, Sino-US frictions deepen, affecting the stock index trend, especially high - valuation technology stocks. The stock index is expected to adjust, but the decline may be weaker than that in April, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic. In the long - term, the domestic market is driven by liquidity, with continuous inflow of incremental funds, and still has upward momentum [3]. - The US is entering a new interest - rate cut cycle, which is beneficial for RMB appreciation, foreign capital inflow, and bringing new incremental funds [9]. - Current policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, with a clear bottom line for the stock index. New technologies and new consumption are promoting the stabilization and recovery of economic expectations [9]. - After the risk - free interest rate drops to a low level, the entry of medium - and long - term funds and residents into the market will enter a new cycle [9]. - Future index performance depends on trading volume. If the trading volume of the two markets can remain above 2 trillion yuan, the index can maintain relative strength [9]. - It is recommended to focus on semiconductor, AI computing power and other technology - growth sectors with certain profitability, and also pay attention to the rotation allocation value of low - valuation defensive sectors such as finance, securities, and consumption [9]. Summary by Directory Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices declined, with the ChiNext and STAR Market falling significantly. For example, the ChiNext Index dropped 5.71% and the STAR 50 Index dropped 6.16%. The performance of global indices also varied, with the Nasdaq rising 2.14% and the Hang Seng Technology Index falling 7.98% [12][17]. - Among the Shenwan primary industries, the trends were differentiated. A few sectors such as coal, banks, and food and beverages rose, while sectors such as media, electronics, and telecommunications fell significantly [17]. Liquidity - In September, government bonds supported social financing, the return of wealth management funds pushed up M2, while M1 remained sluggish. The "gap" between M1 and M2 continued to narrow. By the end of September, the M2 balance was 209.48 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, and the M1 balance was 82.82 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% [15][18]. - The core support for the increase in social financing in September came from government bond issuance, while weak RMB loans were the main drag. In September, the new social financing increment was 3.76 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 372.2 billion yuan. The balance of outstanding social financing was 402.19 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.0% [18]. Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, the trading volume of the two markets decreased, and high - priced stocks adjusted. The trading volume (MA5) of the two markets decreased to around 2 trillion yuan, and liquidity is an important factor supporting the current index and needs continuous monitoring [28]. - The number of new accounts opened showed fluctuations. From January to August 2025, the number of new accounts opened was 1.57 million, 2.86 million, 3.06 million, 1.02 million, 1.555 million, 1.6464 million, 1.9636 million, and 2.6503 million respectively [28]. Index Valuation - As of October 17, 2025, the absolute valuation of the index was at a low level. For example, the latest PB of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.51, with a percentile of 82.67, and the latest PB of the entire A - share market was 21.95, with a percentile of 83.75 [36]. - The stock - bond ratio and its percentile of major stock indices were also presented, which can be used to evaluate the investment value of stocks relative to bonds [42]. Index Industry Weights - As of June 30, 2025, in the SSE 50 Index, the weights of banks, non - bank finance, and food and beverages were relatively high, at 21.34%, 15.48%, and 13.88% respectively. The electronics industry became the fourth - largest weighted industry [45][46]. - In the CSI 300 Index, the weights were more dispersed, with the top three weighted industries being banks, non - bank finance, and electronics [46]. - In the CSI 500 Index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - bank finance [46]. - In the CSI 1000 Index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computers [46]. Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - Domestic policies: In 2025, the government work report and the Two Sessions in March set an economic growth target of 3%, a CPI increase of about 2%, and proposed a moderately loose monetary policy and a more proactive fiscal policy. In May, the reserve requirement ratio was cut by 0.5 percentage points, the policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, and a 500 - billion - yuan loan for service consumption and elderly care was established. In September, the "14th Five - Year Plan" achievements in the financial industry were summarized, and further reforms in the capital market were proposed [51][52]. - US Fed policy: The US is about to enter a new interest - rate cut cycle, with a 25 - BP cut in September. As of October 19, the probability of another rate cut in October exceeded 30%, and there are still two expected rate cuts within the year [53]. - Sino - US relations: China's "long - arm jurisdiction" and strengthened rare - earth control exceeded US expectations, and Trump countered with additional tariffs. A video call was held between China and the US on October 18, which may affect market risk appetite in the short term [54].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The Sino-US relationship is currently in a stage of game, and attention should be paid to the leaders' meeting at the end of the month. The market is supported by funds actively propping up heavyweight stocks, leading to a rebound in the broader market index. In the short term, the trends of large and small-cap indexes are differentiated, and the small and medium-cap indexes may continue to fluctuate and digest [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Regarding the Sino-US relationship, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to multiple hot issues, expressing an open attitude towards equal consultations on the basis of mutual respect. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned possible extensions of tariff exemptions and a potential meeting between leaders. In the spot market, A-share indexes closed in the red, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.10% to 3916.23 points and the ChiNext Index up 0.38%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets dropped below 2 trillion yuan to 1.93 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes closed down, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.65% to 45952.24 points. In the futures market, the basis of the current-month contract converged upon expiration, and the trading volume and open interest of the IH contract increased [1]. Strategy - The Sino-US relationship is in a game stage, and attention should be paid to the leaders' meeting at the end of the month. In the market, funds are actively supporting heavyweight stocks, driving the broader market index to rebound. In the short term, the trends of large and small-cap indexes are differentiated, and the small and medium-cap indexes may continue to fluctuate and digest [2]. Macro - Economic Charts - The report includes charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A-share trends, US Treasury yields and A-share trends, RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, US Treasury yields and A-share style trends [5][10]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on October 16, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.10%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.38%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.26%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.59%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.86%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.09%. There are also charts on the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets and the margin trading balance [12]. Futures Market Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are provided. For example, the trading volume of the IH contract increased by 5009, and the open interest increased by 6373. The basis data of different contracts in different periods (current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter) are also presented, as well as the inter - period spreads between different contracts [16][38].

Group 1 - The S&P 500 futures declined by 0.77% at the end of trading on Thursday, October 16 [1] - The Dow futures fell by 0.73% [1] - The Nasdaq 100 futures decreased by 0.50% [1] - The Russell 2000 futures dropped by 2.22% [1]

Group 1: Index Trends - On October 15th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.22% to close at 3912.21 points, with a trading volume of 961.552 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73% to close at 13118.75 points, with a trading volume of 1111.306 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.5% with a trading volume of 403.798 billion yuan, opening at 7384.01, closing at 7483.45, with a daily high of 7484.05 and a low of 7315.48 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.38% with a trading volume of 397.459 billion yuan, opening at 7205.74, closing at 7294.0, with a daily high of 7294.0 and a low of 7153.42 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 1.36% with a trading volume of 157.106 billion yuan, opening at 2962.75, closing at 3001.35, with a daily high of 3003.0 and a low of 2958.45 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 1.48% with a trading volume of 607.326 billion yuan, opening at 4544.24, closing at 4606.29, with a daily high of 4608.82 and a low of 4526.83 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 110.3 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceutical biology significantly pulling up the index [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 99.15 points from the previous close, with electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceutical biology sectors significantly pulling up the index [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 67.23 points from the previous close, with electronics, power equipment, and non - bank finance sectors significantly pulling up the index [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 40.25 points from the previous close, with non - bank finance, non - ferrous metals, and electronics sectors significantly pulling up the index [3]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 average daily basis was - 10.46, IM01 was - 103.63, IM02 was - 188.68, IM03 was - 409.38 [12]. - IC00 average daily basis was - 8.59, IC01 was - 90.05, IC02 was - 145.37, IC03 was - 306.52 [12]. - IF00 average daily basis was - 1.45, IF01 was - 15.46, IF02 was - 25.74, IF03 was - 47.9 [12]. - IH00 average daily basis was 0.53, IH01 was - 2.86, IH02 was - 2.45, IH03 was - 1.31 [12]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 73.02267, IM00 - 02 was - 259.4522, etc. [28]. - For IC, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, such as at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 68.64222, IC00 - 02 was - 225.568, etc. [29]. - For IF, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, such as at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 12.31678, IF00 - 02 was - 41.14122, etc. [24]. - For IH, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, such as at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was 0.707, IH00 - 02 was 1.4593333, etc. [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index futures is "bullish", and for treasury bond futures is "sideways" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market fluctuated strongly throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3,900 points. The Sino - US trade dispute may impact the index in the short term, but there are still many uncertainties. Before the important meeting on October 20th, the index may be in an adjustment phase. Some domestic securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratio of some individual stocks from 60% to 0, which may affect the valuation of technology stocks if leveraged funds leave the market in the short term. However, the long - term upward momentum of the index mainly comes from internal policy expectations, and the short - term decline in IV may be a buying opportunity. One can deploy small - position out - of - the - money call options for November. For treasury bond futures, the central bank's operations have led to a marginal loosening of the capital market, and the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war has increased risk - aversion sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 15, 2025, IH was at 2,997.4, up 39.0 or 1.32% from the previous day; IF was at 4,576.4, up 69.2 or 1.54%; IC was at 7,140.2, up 130.2 or 1.86%; IM was at 7,275.2, up 129.4 or 1.81% [3] - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai 50 Index was at 3,001.3, up 40.2 or 1.36%; the CSI 300 Index was at 4,606.3, up 67.2 or 1.48%; the CSI 500 Index was at 7,294.0, up 99.2 or 1.38%; the CSI 1000 Index was at 7,483.4, up 110.3 or 1.50% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 15, 2025, TS was at 102.38, unchanged; TF was at 105.73, down 0.045 or - 0.04%; T was at 108.13, down 0.04 or - 0.04%; TL was at 114.58, down 0.18 or - 0.16% [3] 3.2 Market News - **Overall Trend**: The market fluctuated strongly throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3,900 points. Over 4,300 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets rose, and the trading volume was 2.09 trillion yuan. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.36% [5] - **Industry Sectors**: Robot, innovative drugs, automobile manufacturing, and smart grid sectors led the gains, while shipping ports, agriculture, lithography machines, and rare - earth permanent magnets sectors declined [5] - **Popular Concepts**: Robot concept stocks strengthened, with many stocks such as Sanhua Intelligent Control and Wuzhou Spring hitting the daily limit. The innovative drug sector rose, with Anglikang and Lianhuan Pharmaceutical hitting the limit. Automobile manufacturing stocks soared, with Zhongtong Bus and Haima Automobile hitting the limit. The data center power supply concept was active, with Heshun Electric and Jinpan Technology hitting the limit. On the decline side, lithography machine concept stocks continued to adjust, with Xinlaiyingcai falling more than 10% [5] 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, including the trends of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures closing prices and their basis [7][8][9][10][11] 3.3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides charts of the trends, yields, basis, inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures main contracts, including the trends of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts, yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds, and related basis and spread data [14][15][16][17][18][20] 3.3.3 Exchange Rates - The report provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates of the US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the yen [23][24][26][28][31] 3.4 Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with futures qualification number F3060829 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0015271 [32] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index financial report analysis, and market capital tracking, with futures qualification number F03087149 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0019537 [32]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 futures rose by 0.43% at the end of trading on October 15 in New York [1] - The Dow Jones futures experienced a slight decline of 0.02% [1] - The Nasdaq 100 futures increased by 0.76% [1] - The Russell 2000 futures saw an increase of 0.89% [1]

Group 1 - The main contract of the CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) increased by 2.00%, currently at 7160.0 points [1] - The main contract of the CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) surpassed 7300 points, with a daily increase of 2.12% [1]