"我们将向其他国家加征关税，让美国人富起来！" 2025年1月，美国总统特朗普在就职演讲中，曾如是声言。 从年初到入夏，美国政府一直试图向选民兑现竞选承诺。但事与愿违，这个夏天，美国经济恐怕要"凉 凉"了。 毕马威会计师事务所最近发布的一份消费者调查显示，受关税影响，50%的美国消费者正在削减购买 量，49%的消费者正在积极寻找优惠和折扣。许多美国人表示，这个夏天他们虽然还会选择旅行，但在 其他方面已经削减了个人支出。 第三"凉"，凉在信心。 第一"凉"，凉在旅游业。 英国牛津经济研究院下属的旅游经济学公司发布数据显示，受美国政府"对等关税"等政策影响，2025年 美国国际入境旅客数量将下降8.7%，国际旅客今年在美国花销将比去年少85亿美元。旅游分析机构的 最新报告显示，这是自2013年以来，美国面临的最严重的夏季旅游低谷。 旅游不仅是一张门票，餐饮、交通、住宿，还有周边产品背后的制造业，都与旅游息息相关。《财富》 杂志认为，外国游客赴美人数下滑，或将使大量工作岗位和重要税收收入面临风险。 美国政府的边境管控和滥施关税的举动早已招致大量贸易伙伴的不满，美国的国际形象受损严重，外国 游客将美国从海外旅行目的地 ...

Leadership Changes - The International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) announced significant leadership changes, including the recommendation of John Denholm CBE as the new chairman candidate, succeeding Emanuele Grimaldi, with Denholm set to officially take office after the ICS annual meeting in June 2026 [4] - Three new vice-chairmen were appointed: Dr. Gaby Bornheim from Germany, Mr. Carl-Johan Hagman from Japan, and Mr. Claes Berglund from Sweden [4] New Secretary-General - Thomas Kazakos has officially succeeded Guy Platten as the new Secretary-General of ICS, having previously served as the Secretary-General of the Cyprus Shipping Chamber [5] Membership Update - The Malta International Shipowners Association has been upgraded from an associate member to a full member of ICS, reflecting Malta's growing importance in international shipping [6] Industry Challenges - The board meeting addressed increasing geopolitical uncertainties and emphasized the need for clear and unified leadership in the global shipping industry to tackle evolving challenges [6] - Key topics discussed included new greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction measures expected to be formally adopted at the upcoming International Maritime Organization (IMO) special meeting, the impact of global protectionism, supply chain security, and seafarer welfare [6][7] Commitment to Resilience - The ICS board reiterated its commitment to fostering a resilient, inclusive, and forward-looking shipping industry, emphasizing the importance of global collaboration and representation [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article critiques the United States' approach to trade, particularly its emphasis on "reciprocal tariffs," which the author argues is a double standard that overlooks the significant service trade surplus the U.S. enjoys [3][5]. Trade Balance - The U.S. service trade surplus is projected to reach nearly $300 billion in 2024, highlighting a significant imbalance in how the U.S. discusses its trade position, focusing on goods trade deficits while ignoring service trade advantages [3]. - The U.S. often claims to be at a disadvantage in goods trade, yet fails to acknowledge its substantial gains in service trade, which is seen as a selective narrative [3][5]. Global Trade Dynamics - The global service industry now accounts for over two-thirds of GDP, with high-value services like finance and IT predominantly controlled by the U.S. and other developed nations, raising questions about the fairness of the U.S. trade narrative [5]. - The article suggests that the U.S. is not genuinely advocating for free trade but rather seeks to maintain a system that benefits itself while imposing restrictions on others [7]. International Reactions - The European Union, particularly Germany, is expressing concerns over unilateral trade actions and the need for stronger multilateral coordination to avoid a trade war, indicating a shift in sentiment among global partners [7]. - China's recent statements at the WTO are framed as a call for a more equitable global trade environment, challenging the notion that might makes right in international trade [9]. Future Implications - The article raises concerns about the sustainability of the U.S. trade strategy, questioning how long it can continue to operate under a logic that demands reciprocity while maintaining flexibility for itself [9].

6月16日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍5月份国民经济运行情况。从主要指标来看，工业、服务业、消 费、投资等均保持增长。外贸顶住压力，保持平稳增长。 其中，消费和服务业两项增速比上月有所加快，显示出在一系列促消费政策带动下，国内消费潜力得到 释放。工业增加值平稳较快增长，固定资产投资继续扩大。房地产继续朝止跌回稳的方向迈进。 全年即将过半，上半年GDP将于下月中旬揭晓。"作为数据生产者，又来进行预测，本身是存在一定矛 盾的。"国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖表示，统计部门一般不做这方面预 测，但从整个经济运行情况来看，全年经济仍有较好支撑，上半年有望保持总体平稳、稳中有进的发展 态势。 宏观政策持续发力，为经济平稳运行提供支撑 主要指标中，消费和服务业两项增速均比上月有所加快。5月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%， 增速比上月加快1.3个百分点。全国服务业生产指数同比增长6.2%，比上月加快0.2个百分点。 "从5月份相关指标看，宏观政策持续发力，为经济平稳运行提供了重要支撑。"付凌晖表示。 以消费品以旧换新政策为例，在政策带动下，5月份，家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类、文化办公 用品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of the "Trump 2.0 era" signifies a fundamental shift in global dynamics, rather than a temporary phenomenon, with significant implications for the future of the U.S. and the world [2][3]. Group 1: Global Dynamics and Geopolitical Changes - The current global situation is characterized by three key trends: Protectionism, Politicization, and Polarization, which are reshaping geopolitical and economic rules [3][4]. - Non-aligned third-party countries are rising in influence, moving away from the binary "us vs. them" mentality, and engaging in diverse partnerships across various regions [7][10]. - The U.S. is rapidly losing its global standing due to its current policies, which are leading it towards a developing country status [3][10]. Group 2: Economic Implications for China - China's GDP growth is projected to reach 5%, but underlying issues such as corporate debt, consumer confidence, and employment pressures remain [21][22]. - To transition into a consumption-driven economy, China must address social security issues and shift focus from production to consumer support [22][23]. - The current global economic landscape presents a "golden opportunity" for China to enhance the international status of the Renminbi, especially as capital flows away from the U.S. [24][25]. Group 3: Technological Advancements and AI - The impact of AI is expected to be more profound than the Industrial Revolution, presenting both opportunities and challenges for developing countries [5][31]. - Countries must adapt their education systems to prepare for the skills needed in an AI-driven economy, ensuring that they do not fall behind [31][33]. - The rise of AI necessitates a collaborative approach among nations to address global challenges, rather than fostering competition [38]. Group 4: Corporate Strategies and Market Positioning - Chinese companies expanding overseas should prioritize localization and identify their core competitive advantages to avoid pitfalls associated with price competition [17][18]. - The need for a shift in competitive thinking is crucial, as many Chinese firms face narrow profit margins and must innovate rather than imitate [17][18]. - The concept of "mayor economy" highlights the importance of local government support in fostering private enterprise and driving industrial growth [28].

【环球时报报道 记者 肖震冬】第51届七国集团（G7）峰会于当地时间15日至17日在加拿大艾伯塔省卡 纳纳斯基斯举行。在美国总统特朗普再度返回G7峰会时，"他已经带领全球经济经历了一场过山车式的 起伏"，彭博社13日报道称，而这一次，美国关税政策在国内外遭遇了日益增长的反对，"再次深刻地提 醒人们贸易战的高昂代价"。 同时，美国政府的关税政策也在挑战其作为多数国家主要经济伙伴的角色，及对全球经济议程的影响 力。彭博社的研究模型显示，美国关税政策可能使其在全球贸易中的份额从22%降至16%。这在亚洲市 场尤为明显，当前中国已是该地区多数国家最大贸易伙伴。原TPP成员国（亚太地区）对华贸易占比 23%，对美贸易仅占13%，关税政策可能将美国份额压至11%。 特朗普退出TPP的后果在8年后的今天仍然体现在盟友态度的转变上。 特朗普的关税也打击了许多美国 盟友的经济。随着出口下滑，加拿大等贸易伙伴正面临陷入衰退的可能性。日本和德国标志性的汽车行 业也面临着生存威胁。目前有三个G7成员（加拿大、日本和英国）已加入TPP的"继承者"《全面与进步 跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（CPTPP）。报道援引日本内阁府前高级经济学家川崎健 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent joint statement by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and representatives from 53 African countries criticizes the United States for its unilateralism and economic bullying, calling for fair and reciprocal solutions to trade disputes [1][3]. Group 1: Context and Background - The joint statement follows the U.S. imposing high tariffs on several African countries, with some reaching as high as 47% [3]. - The timing of the statement is significant, occurring immediately after the conclusion of U.S.-China negotiations in London, indicating China's firm stance on trade issues [3][7]. Group 2: China's Position and Strategy - The statement serves as a counter to U.S. claims of aiding Africa, highlighting that while the U.S. imposes high tariffs, China is genuinely assisting African nations through infrastructure and agricultural projects [5][9]. - The declaration aims to strengthen China's influence in the Global South, expanding its diplomatic relationships and positioning itself as a more reliable partner compared to the U.S. [7][9]. Group 3: Implications for International Relations - The joint statement is seen as a strategic move in the ongoing U.S.-China rivalry, with China leveraging this opportunity to assert its moral high ground and agenda-setting power in future negotiations [7]. - The document reflects a broader effort by China to reshape the current international order, moving beyond traditional platforms like G7 and WTO to engage with developing nations [7][9].

Global Economic Outlook - The World Bank forecasts a significant slowdown in global economic growth, predicting a growth rate of only 2.3% in 2025, the lowest since 2008 [1] - Nearly 70% of economies have downgraded their growth expectations due to escalating trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainties, and rising protectionism [1] Regional Performance - The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is expected to perform relatively well, with a projected growth of 2.7% in 2025, accelerating to around 4% in the following two years [1] - Morocco shows strong economic resilience, with GDP growth expected to be 3.6% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026, surpassing the regional average [1] Economic Recovery Factors - Morocco's economic recovery is attributed to macroeconomic stability and a rebound in the industrial sector, particularly in construction and energy infrastructure investments [1] - The country benefits from declining inflation and a rebound in domestic demand, although this recovery is heavily reliant on stable food and energy prices, export growth, and relative geopolitical stability in the region [1] Challenges and Risks - Morocco faces high public debt pressure and limited fiscal space, with tax reform effects yet to materialize [2] - Global monetary policy tightening, capital flow volatility, and increasing regional security risks could impact Morocco's economy [2] - The World Bank warns that ongoing global protectionism may suppress investor confidence and reduce foreign investment inflows, posing new external risks for emerging economies like Morocco [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese home furnishing industry is transitioning from being a "manufacturer" in the global supply chain to a "definer" and "leader" at the top of the value chain, facing significant challenges such as trade protectionism, rising costs, intensified competition, and lack of brand awareness [3][4]. Group 1: Breakthrough Battle - The "breakthrough battle" has commenced, emphasizing the necessity for a green revolution in the industry [4]. - China has become the world's largest furniture producer and exporter, with over 10.43 million home furnishing enterprises nationwide, and Guangdong alone has 1.045 million, contributing to 40% of the national output [4]. - In 2024, China's home furnishing and accessories export value is projected to reach 483 billion RMB, a 7% year-on-year increase, while the global home furnishing market value exceeded 500 billion USD in 2023, with China's furniture production accounting for over 35% of the global total [4]. Group 2: Environmental Compliance - The industry must confront increasingly stringent environmental regulations from Europe and the U.S., including the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and anti-dumping investigations [5]. - Chinese home furnishing enterprises are shifting towards using natural materials and increasing investments in environmentally friendly and biodegradable materials, transforming compliance into a core competitive advantage [5]. - In 2024, there were no incidents of Chinese home furnishings being returned due to non-compliance with global standards, establishing a benchmark for sustainable home furnishing [5]. Group 3: Brand Strategy - Chinese home furnishing companies are moving away from a "one-size-fits-all" approach, focusing on niche markets such as smart home products, health sleep solutions, outdoor leisure, and designer brands [6]. - By leveraging clear strategies and precise positioning, companies are building unique brand images and narratives, utilizing social media and collaborations with KOLs and KOCs for effective content marketing [6]. - There is a concerted effort to promote traditional Chinese furniture and craftsmanship, creating integrated online and offline brand communities to cultivate loyal customer bases in Western markets [6]. Group 4: Digital Transformation - Digitalization is being positioned as a core strategy across the entire value chain of design, manufacturing, and marketing services in the home furnishing industry [7]. - The industry boasts the most complete supply chain cluster globally, with a large pool of engineers and craftsmen, aiming to become the definers of global home furnishing consumption trends [7]. - The goal is to cultivate 5-10 globally influential home furnishing brands within the next five years, increasing the market share in the mid to high-end segments to over 35% and steadily raising the share of global home furnishing trade to over 40% [7].

Core Points - The European Union (EU) has proposed sanctions against two small Chinese banks, claiming they help Russia evade sanctions, which comes shortly after China's Minister Wang Wentao promised to facilitate rare earth exports to Europe [1][5][9] - This situation highlights the complex geopolitical dynamics, where the EU is caught between the need for Chinese resources and pressure from the United States [11][16] - China's response emphasizes the importance of mutual respect in international trade and questions the EU's double standards regarding trade with Russia [21][23] Group 1: EU's Sanctions and China's Response - The EU's sanctions target two small Chinese banks, marking the first time sanctions are directed at Chinese financial institutions [5][9] - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticized the EU's actions, arguing that they violate international trade norms and questioning the EU's own trade relations with Russia [21][23] - The sanctions come at a time when China is attempting to strengthen ties with Europe through rare earth exports, which are crucial for various industries [3][5] Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The sanctions reflect the EU's struggle to balance its economic interests with the pressure from the US, particularly in light of recent high-level visits from French and German leaders to China [11][16] - The EU's actions may be seen as an attempt to appease the US while risking its own economic relationship with China, which is vital for accessing rare earth materials [16][30] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions suggest that the EU's strategy of trying to please both sides may ultimately lead to unfavorable outcomes for its own interests [35] Group 3: Economic Implications - The trade relationship between China and the EU is significant, with bilateral trade expected to approach $800 billion in 2024, indicating deep economic interdependence [25][28] - China's dominance in the rare earth market, controlling approximately 60% of global extraction and 85% of processing, makes it a critical player for European industries [23][25] - The potential for long-term repercussions on the EU's access to essential resources is evident, as any sanctions could disrupt supply chains and increase costs for European companies [25][30]