Core Insights - Dassault Aviation's Falcon commercial aircraft orders have declined to a five-year low due to tariffs initiated by President Trump, which have caused assembly delays and led investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach [1] Company Summary - The decline in Falcon aircraft orders indicates a significant impact on Dassault Aviation's business performance, reflecting broader industry challenges [1] - Tariffs have introduced uncertainties in the supply chain, affecting production timelines and investor confidence [1] Industry Summary - The commercial aircraft sector is experiencing headwinds from geopolitical factors, particularly tariffs, which are influencing order volumes and market dynamics [1] - Investor sentiment in the aviation industry is cautious, with many choosing to hold off on investments amid ongoing uncertainties [1]

通用汽车(GM.N)CFO：预计2025年能抵消至少30%的关税影响。预计今年关税带来的影响至高达50亿 美元。 ...

可口可乐(KO.N)：仍预计关税影响可控。 ...

通用汽车(GM.N)：仍预计2025年关税带来的影响为40亿至50亿美元。 ...

Group 1 - Domestic GDP in Q2 showed resilience, with a slight decline from 5.4% in Q1 to 5.2%, while nominal GDP growth decreased from 4.6% to 3.9% [1] - The economic data in June indicated a strong supply but weak demand, with industrial growth rebounding, retail sales growth slowing, and investment decline widening [1] - The market strategy for bonds showed a tightening followed by a loosening of liquidity around the tax period, with short-term bonds performing well while long-term bonds lacked direction [1] Group 2 - A-shares maintained a positive sentiment after surpassing 3500 points, with internal growth sectors rotating upward, and external risks from the tariff war diminishing [2] - The second quarter GDP growth exceeded expectations, which may slow the pace of growth-stabilizing policies, but liquidity and risk appetite remain favorable for the market [2] - In the Hong Kong market, the inflow of southbound funds remained active, with high risk appetite expected to support strong performance in a liquidity-rich environment [2] Group 3 - Oil demand is expected to be weak in 2025, with continuous supply release putting downward pressure on oil prices, while geopolitical changes may cause short-term fluctuations [3] - Economic policy uncertainties from tariffs and doubts about the dollar's credibility are likely to support a long-term bullish trend for gold prices, although short-term volatility is expected [3]

斯泰兰蒂斯(STLA.N)CFO：预计上半年关税带来的影响为3.3亿欧元，下半年这一数字将会翻倍或更 多。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to provide an outlook on the impact of recent tariffs on the Japanese economy this month, but the tone will be less pessimistic compared to three months ago [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is likely to address the economic effects of recent tariffs [1] - The outlook will reflect a more optimistic perspective than previously expressed [1]

智通财经7月18日电，日本央行对近期关税影响的悲观程度有所下降。 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan may hold a less pessimistic view regarding the recent impact of tariffs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the US dollar index is attributed to higher-than-expected US CPI data, which reduces the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. This has led to a mixed performance of the Chinese yuan against the dollar, with the yuan's middle rate reaching a low of 7.1461, while the spot trading price has shown a depreciation trend [1][5][10]. Group 1: US Dollar and Economic Indicators - The US dollar index has seen a continuous rise, with a cumulative increase of over 2% as of July 17, marking the longest upward trend this year [1]. - The US June CPI data exceeded expectations, with core inflation at 2.9%, which is still above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [5][6]. - The likelihood of a rate cut in September has decreased, with current market pricing showing only a 53.5% chance of a cut, down from 59.3% [5]. Group 2: Impact on Chinese Yuan - The Chinese yuan has shown signs of weakness against the dollar, with a depreciation of over 200 points in recent days, despite the middle rate signaling stability [1][10]. - The yuan's middle rate has deviated from model predictions by nearly -240 points, indicating a potential adjustment to strengthen the yuan [10]. - The future exchange rate of USD/CNY is expected to follow the dollar index's movements, but the depreciation of the yuan may be less pronounced, with estimates suggesting a 1:5 ratio of dollar index strength to yuan depreciation [11]. Group 3: Tariff Effects and Inflation - The impact of tariffs is beginning to show, with significant price increases in home goods and appliances, which are key categories affected by tariffs [6][7]. - There is a concern that as inventory levels deplete, inflation may rise due to the need for businesses to restock, potentially leading to cost pass-through to consumers [8]. - Labor shortages in key industries due to immigration policies may also contribute to upward wage pressures, further influencing inflation [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs remains high, with potential for increased actions from the Trump administration as tariff revenues rise [12]. - Concerns exist regarding the sustainability of the US fiscal policy, with expectations that the costs of new fiscal stimulus may outweigh its economic benefits [13]. - The forecast for US 10-year Treasury yields is projected to reach 4.9% in Q4, influenced by ongoing budget deficits and market volatility [13].