Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range to 4.00% to 4.25%[3] - The committee expects a total of 75 basis points in rate cuts for the year, aligning with market expectations[3] Economic Outlook - GDP growth forecast for 2026 increased from 1.6% to 1.8%[5] - Unemployment rate forecast adjusted down from 4.5% to 4.4%[5] - PCE inflation forecast raised from 2.4% to 2.6%[5] Market Reactions - Following the rate decision, the US dollar index and 10-year Treasury yields initially fell but later rose, indicating a hawkish interpretation[6] - Gold prices experienced a similar pattern, initially rising before declining overall[6] Committee Dynamics - Only one member, Stephen Milan, advocated for a 50 basis point cut, highlighting the independence of the Federal Reserve[4] - The majority of the committee supports the current 25 basis point reduction, reflecting a consensus on the need for cautious monetary easing[4] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected resilience in US inflation and a more severe economic downturn than anticipated[9] - Employment conditions may underperform expectations, adding uncertainty to the economic outlook[9]

基本面分析： 行情回顾： 黄金周三（9.17）最高上探至3707.47美元/盎司，最低触及3645.9美元/盎司。收盘于3658.47美元/盎司，周四（9.18）开于3658.74元/盎司，截至目前最高上 探至3672.15美元/盎司，最低触及3651.1美元/盎司，行情小幅回撤，现报价3653.8。 1，美联储传声筒：鲍威尔避免了激烈分歧 努力证明美联储独立性 "美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos：当美联储周三降息时，表面上看这像是例行的货币政策操作。市场反应较为平淡，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔也基本避免了因这一决 定而引发的激烈分歧，尽管这一决定出现在前所未有的政治对抗背景下。鲍威尔在周三降息中开启的政策转向，可能代表他最后一次努力证明——一个独立 的美国央行依然有能力在复杂的环境中引领经济，而不是在更符合特朗普总统优先事项的官员获得更大控制权之前放弃独立性。鲍威尔的主席任期将在明年 春季结束。在其任期内的第三次，鲍威尔尝试着一个极其微妙的操作：降息并非因为衰退迫在眉睫，而是为了防止衰退发生。 2，美联储于当地时间周三批准下调利率25个基点，这是过去九个月来的首次降息。官员们判断，近期劳动力市场的疲软态势已 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve restarted interest rate cuts by 25 basis points, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.00% to 4.25%[2] - The Fed's guidance indicates a potential for three more rate cuts within the year, adjusting the median rate forecast down from 3.9% to 3.6%[14] - The meeting's tone was dovish, reflecting concerns over employment risks and a shift in the balance of risks[3][8] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.3%[4] - The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 2 basis points to 4.06%, and the 2-year yield rose by 1 basis point to 3.52%[4] - The market's expectation for a 50 basis point cut was not fully met, leading to a mixed reaction in equities and a rebound in bond yields[3][7] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Non-farm payroll data was significantly revised downwards, with a reduction of 91,100 jobs over the past 12 months, intensifying rate cut expectations[5][6] - The Fed's economic outlook was upgraded, suggesting that rate cuts could stimulate durable goods consumption and real estate investment[8][14] - Inflation pressures are expected to remain manageable, with the Fed indicating that the current economic conditions do not warrant aggressive rate hikes[21][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that Powell is engaging in a high-risk policy gamble by choosing to cut interest rates without clear signs of an impending recession, marking his third attempt at such a delicate maneuver during his tenure [2][3]. Economic Context - The decision to lower interest rates is largely attributed to a significant slowdown in the labor market, with revised data showing that the average job growth for three months in August dropped from an initial report of 150,000 to 29,000, indicating substantial underlying weakness [3]. - Some economists believe that the Federal Reserve's actions, including the recent 50 basis point cut, are not aggressive enough to address the current economic challenges [3]. Structural Changes and Risks - There are concerns that the Federal Reserve may misinterpret structural changes in the economy as temporary cyclical weakness, which could lead to excessive rate cuts [4]. - Policies from the Trump administration, such as immigration restrictions and increased tariffs, may be permanently altering the economy's production capacity, raising fears about the risks of over-lowering interest rates [4]. Political Pressure and Consensus - Powell faces significant political pressure while trying to maintain consensus within the Federal Reserve, which is a major test of his leadership [5]. - Despite differing views on the economic outlook, Powell has managed to keep the consensus intact, with three regional Federal Reserve bank presidents supporting the recent rate cut [5]. Future Challenges and Opportunities - The Federal Reserve is likely to face more contentious debates regarding interest rate predictions, with some members believing no further cuts are necessary this year [7]. - Powell acknowledges the dual risks of labor market weakness and persistent inflation, indicating that there is no risk-free path forward [7]. Historical Context and Potential Outcomes - The article outlines three potential outcomes of Powell's policy gamble, including the ideal scenario of a "soft landing" similar to the mid-1990s, the risk of igniting inflation similar to the late 1960s, and the historical failures of rate cuts to prevent recessions in 1990, 2001, and 2007 [8].

金透财经 | 何圳 美东时间9月17日，美联储货币政策委员会（FOMC）会后决定将联邦基金利率目标区间从4.25%至4.5%降至4.00%至4.25%，降幅25个基点。这是今年以来 美联储六次FOMC会议首次降息。美联储主席鲍威尔在随后的记者会上重申，美联储坚定致力于维持自身独立性，不对政治事件置评。 美联储独立性的坚守 鲍威尔在记者会上明确表示，美联储的决策完全基于数据，不考虑政治因素，这是美联储内部根深蒂固的文化。对于联储理事Lisa Cook与美国总统特朗普 之间的官司，鲍威尔认为不适合发表评论，同时也不会针对美国财长贝森特的讲话发表任何意见。他强调，在追求最大就业和物价稳定的双重职责方面， FOMC仍然是团结一致的。 针对新的联储委员会成员Steven Myron保留白宫职务的情况，鲍威尔指出，委员会在追求双重使命目标上仍然是团结一致的，坚定地致力于维护美联储的独 立性。他表示，美联储的决策机制基于数据和经济形势，不会因个别成员的背景而受到影响。FOMC有19位参与者，其中12位在任何给定时点拥有投票权， 这种轮换制度确保了决策的广泛代表性，没有哪一位投票委员能单方面改变结果。 货币政策的稳定与调整 ...

新华财经上海9月18日电（葛佳明）在北京时间18日凌晨结束的9月议息会议上，美国联邦储备委员会 （Fed）宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至4.0%-4.25%，为时隔9个月后首次降息。 从美联储的政策措辞以及最新经济数据来看，通胀风险相对缓解，政策重心逐步偏向劳动力市场。 中金公司研究部董事总经理刘刚表示，鲍威尔本次讲话与其在8月杰克逊霍尔央行年会上的表态基本一 致，把此次降息描绘为"风险管理式"降息：一方面，其认可就业市场弱化的趋势，并新增"就业下行风 险已经上升"的判断；另一方面，鲍威尔依然提示通胀风险，措辞上加上"通胀走高"，并认为关税对通 胀的传导还会持续一直到明年。 虽然鲍威尔整体表态偏"鸽派"，但其同时表示点阵图不是政策预设路径，未来利率路径仍取决于数据。 9月公布的"点阵图"显示，美联储年内还有2次降息，2026年1次降息，但在未来降息路径上，分歧明显 加大。 一方面，"点阵图"预计2025年年内还有两次降息，但从19个票委的投票分布显示，9人预计年内再降息1 次甚至更少，9人预计再降息2次，另有1人预期再降息125个基点。 刘刚认为，市场判断特朗普的经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephe ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year, aligning with market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Fed's dot plot indicates the possibility of two more rate cuts by the end of the year, each by 25 basis points [1][2]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management" decision, emphasizing the need to respond to a cooling labor market [1][3]. - The Fed's economic forecast report slightly upgraded GDP growth predictions for 2025 and 2026 to 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively, both up by 0.2 percentage points from June [2]. Group 2: Employment and Inflation Outlook - The Fed is prioritizing employment over inflation, indicating a higher tolerance for inflation in the short term [2][3]. - The projected unemployment rate remains stable at 4.5% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026, unchanged from previous forecasts [2]. Group 3: Internal Disagreements and Future Projections - There is significant division among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts, with 9 out of 19 voting members supporting two more cuts, while others are more cautious [3][5]. - The dot plot reflects a lack of consensus, with some members advocating for only one additional cut or none at all [5][6]. - The Fed's decision-making process is reportedly unaffected by political factors, as emphasized by Powell [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The FOMC resolution was in line with expectations, with a dovish tone focusing on employment risks. The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points in September 2025, the first rate cut of the year. The statement showed concerns about economic downside risks and employment, and there was internal disagreement mainly on the speed of rate cuts [2]. - The dot - plot indicated two more rate cuts this year, but Powell's speech at the press conference was hawkish. He emphasized data - driven decisions and that the current policy was not misaligned, and the exit of restrictive monetary policy remained uncertain [2]. - Powell's hawkish remarks reversed the initial market reaction. In the short term, the US Treasury yield curve may show a bull - steepening pattern, and the US dollar may remain weak. The Fed's rate cuts are beneficial to China's external environment, opening up space for aggregate monetary policies [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 What to Focus on in the Fed's Interest - Rate Meeting 3.1.1 FOMC Resolution Starts to Focus on Employment Downside Risks - The September 2025 FOMC resolution had three points of focus compared to July: adding descriptions about rising unemployment in the fundamental assessment, highlighting employment downside risks in the risk assessment, and only new Fed governor Milan voting against the resolution, preferring a 0.5 - percentage - point rate cut [7]. - The market's immediate reaction to the resolution was mild as it had almost fully priced in the rate cut before the meeting. The S&P 500 rose 0.19%, 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields declined, gold prices rose, and the US dollar index weakened slightly [9]. 3.1.2 Dot - Plot Shows Two More Rate Cuts This Year - The Fed's September 2025 economic forecast showed a slight decrease in the risk of stagnation and an increase in the risk of inflation. GDP growth forecasts were raised, unemployment forecasts were slightly lowered, inflation forecasts were slightly raised, and the median federal funds rate for 2025 decreased, indicating two more rate cuts this year [11]. - The narrowing of the central tendency suggested that the Fed believed the predictability of the economy was increasing [12]. 3.1.3 Press Conference Speech Is Hawkish, Reinforcing the Fed's Data - Driven Inertia - Powell's speech at the press conference was hawkish. He emphasized the Fed's independence, stating that decisions were based on data and economic understanding, and individual influence was exerted through persuasion [19]. - He also emphasized that the current restrictive policy was still applicable, the rate cut was a result of risk balancing, and future decisions would be data - dependent [19]. - The market prices were affected by his hawkish remarks. The S&P 500 fell, US Treasury yields rose, gold prices dropped, and the US dollar index increased [20]. 3.2 How to View the Market - In the short term, the US Treasury yield curve may show a bull - steepening pattern. The market may further price in the remaining rate cuts this year, with the 2 - year US Treasury rate expected to fluctuate between 3.44% - 3.84% and the 10 - year rate between 3.9% - 4.3% [21]. - The US dollar index may remain weak, possibly falling below 96. The Fed's rate cuts, weak US economic data, and policy uncertainties contribute to this trend. The Fed's rate cuts are beneficial to China's external interest - rate environment, allowing for the possibility of aggregate monetary policies [23].

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20250918 9 月 FOMC：重启降息——2025 年 9 月 FOMC 会议点评 2025 年 09 月 18 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 执业证书：S0600124120013 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《特朗普干预美联储独立性的三个途 径》 2025-09-15 《供需分化的三个结果——8 月经济 数据点评》 2025-09-15 东吴证券研究所 1 / 9 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：9 月 FOMC 如期降息 25bps，点阵图指引年内还有 2 次降 息，基本符合预期，但同时指引明年还有额外 1 次降息，相比市场预期 明显偏鹰。发布会上 Powell 对于就业和通胀的观点与 8 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024 [1][2] - The Fed's decision comes amid slowing economic activity, rising unemployment, and persistent inflation, with the committee acknowledging increased downside risks to employment [2][5] - The Fed's projections indicate a potential further reduction of 50 basis points by the end of the year, with an additional 25 basis points cut each year for the next two years [2] Group 2 - Following the Fed's announcement, the U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 260.42 points (0.57%), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices experienced slight declines [2] - The dollar index initially fell by 0.4% but later recovered to show a 0.3% increase after Powell's press conference emphasized inflation risks [3] - Analysts suggest that the Fed's rate cut could trigger a global wave of central bank rate cuts, potentially benefiting the Chinese stock market and leading to a second wave of upward momentum [5][6]