Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report was released on August 29, 2025 [2] 2. Researcher Information - The researchers are Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, and Peng Jinglin, with their respective contact information and futures qualification numbers provided [3] 3. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is judged to be prone to rise and difficult to fall, with a support level of 78,500 yuan, as the fundamentals still support the copper price during the domestic off - peak to peak season transition, and macro - level fluctuations present buying opportunities for downstream players [10] 4. Content Summary by Section 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper prices declined due to negative macro - factors such as Trump seeking to remove Fed Governor Cook and threatening an economic war against Russia, which raised market risk - aversion. The main contract of Shanghai copper dropped to a minimum of 78,650 yuan, and the spot copper price fell 355 yuan to 7,9190 yuan. - The spot premium rose 35 yuan to 205 yuan as lower copper prices stimulated downstream purchases. Social inventories increased by 0.41 tons to 12.71 tons this week with more imports arriving. - The profit of the spot import window widened to 330 yuan, but the buying sentiment for Yangshan copper was average. The warehouse receipt premium rose 2 dollars/ton, while the bill of lading premium decreased 2 dollars/ton. - The short - term fundamentals show a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas markets, with LME inventories being transferred to China. LME inventories increased slightly for two consecutive days to 15.8 tons, and the inventory increase in August was lower than expected. Attention should be paid to the potential return of COMEX inventories [10] 4.2 Industry News - Canadian mining company Hudbay Minerals restarted its copper - gold mine in Snow Lake, Manitoba on August 22 after the authorities lifted the mandatory evacuation order. The mine is expected to resume full - scale production in early September and is still expected to achieve its annual production target in 2025. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) stated that the global refined copper market had a significant surplus of 251,000 tons in the first half of the year. Mine production increased in Peru by 2.7%, in the Congo by 9.5%, and in Mongolia by 31%. Chile's production grew by 2.6%, while Indonesia's production decreased by 36%. Global refined copper production increased by 3.6% driven by a 6.2% combined growth in China and the Congo [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in gold and oil prices, highlighting the factors influencing these markets, particularly the weakening US dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - As of August 29, the spot gold price slightly retreated to around $3410.37 per ounce after reaching a five-week high of $3423.02 on August 28, driven by a weakening dollar [1]. - The dollar index fell by 0.3% to 97.85, marking its third consecutive day of decline, which made gold cheaper for international buyers and stimulated demand [1][2]. - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and the influx of safe-haven funds have contributed to the rise in gold prices, with the market anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut in September [2][4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies - The technical analysis indicates that gold has broken through the significant resistance level of $3400, suggesting potential for further upward movement, although a correction may be expected soon [2][4]. - Short-term trading strategies recommend buying on dips around $3405-3408 and selling on rebounds near $3438-3440, with specific stop-loss levels set to manage risk [4]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring key economic data, such as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which could influence market sentiment and gold prices [2][4].

Group 1 - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 2.5 basis points to 4.215%, while the real yield decreased by 3 basis points to 1.785% [1] - The U.S. dollar is under pressure due to President Trump's actions to influence monetary policy, including attempts to remove Fed Governor Cook, who has filed a lawsuit against Trump [1] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a market expectation of over 87% for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September [1] Group 2 - Gold prices have risen above $3,400 per ounce, reaching a five-week high, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid the Fed independence dispute [2] - If gold surpasses $3,438 per ounce, the next target will be the June 16 high of $3,452 per ounce, followed by the historical high of $3,500 per ounce [3] Group 3 - The daily chart for gold (XAUUSD) shows a bullish bias with resistance at $3,422 and support at $3,300 [4] - The daily chart for the euro against the dollar (EURUSD) also indicates a bullish direction with resistance at 1.1673 and support at 1.1637 [5] Group 4 - Key economic indicators to watch include Canada's June GDP, U.S. July core PCE price index, U.S. July personal spending, Chicago PMI, and Michigan consumer sentiment index [5]

Group 1 - The demand for safe-haven assets, particularly gold, has increased due to concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and easing inflation data, leading to a rise in gold prices [1] - As of the market close, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.82% to $3,476.9 per ounce, while the China Gold ETF (518850) increased by 0.29% and the Gold Stock ETF (159562) surged by 4.51% [1] - The U.S. second-quarter GDP annualized revision showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.3%, surpassing the expected 3.1% and the initial value of 3% [1] Group 2 - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for the second quarter was revised to an annualized quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.5%, consistent with the initial value but below the expected 2.6% [1] - A lawsuit was filed by Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook against President Donald Trump, challenging his attempt to dismiss her based on allegations of lying in a mortgage application, marking a significant dispute regarding the independence of the U.S. central bank [1] - Analysts from Baocun Futures noted that Nvidia's third-quarter guidance was not optimistic, which may contribute to a risk premium for gold [1]

Report on Investment Analysis of Multiple Commodities 1. Core Views - **Overall Market**: The market for various commodities shows a mixed picture with different factors influencing each commodity's price movement. Some are affected by supply - demand dynamics, while others are influenced by geopolitical events, policy changes, and economic data releases [1][2][4]. - **Short - term Outlook**: Most commodities are expected to experience short - term price fluctuations, with some showing a tendency to trade within a range, while others may have a slightly bullish or bearish bias depending on their specific fundamentals [1][4][5]. 2. Summary by Commodity **Metals** - **Gold**: A lawsuit by Fed理事Lisa Cook regarding the Fed's independence could impact the market. If the Fed loses, concerns about US stagflation may increase, which is positive for gold. Fed rate - cut expectations have led to a short - term gold rebound, but the medium - term trend needs further observation [2]. - **Silver**: US Q2 GDP growth was higher than expected, and inflation was lower than expected. After the data release, risk appetite increased, and combined with Fed rate - cut expectations, silver is expected to trade with a slightly bullish bias [6]. - **Iron Ore**: With increased end - of - month production restrictions at Tangshan steel mills, iron ore demand has decreased. Overseas shipments and arrivals have declined slightly, and port inventories are expected to increase. The price is expected to trade in a range, supported by post - parade restocking expectations [4]. - **Steel (Rebar)**: Rebar production has increased, inventories have risen for five consecutive weeks, and apparent demand has slightly recovered. The supply is high, and demand is weak. However, with compressed steel mill profits and improved export orders, the rebar futures may trade in a narrow range [5]. - **Copper (not mentioned in the text, but for completeness in metals category)**: No relevant information in the provided text. **Energy** - **Crude Oil**: Short - term price movements are uncertain due to the Russia - Ukraine situation. In the long - term, the oil market faces significant supply pressure. Currently, the production increase expectation is pitted against stable inventories, and the price is expected to trade with a slightly bearish bias in the short - term [11][12]. - **Natural Gas (not mentioned in the text, but for completeness in energy category)**: No relevant information in the provided text. **Agricultural Products** - **Soybeans**: Due to expected increases in new soybean production and a weakening futures market, the spot price of soybeans is expected to face downward pressure in the short - term. Policy regulation and terminal restocking demand need to be closely monitored [8]. - **Palm Oil**: Crude oil prices have dragged down the entire oil market. Despite high - volume low - price replenishment in the market, the price of palm oil is expected to experience a short - term correction and trade with a bearish bias [8]. - **Corn (not mentioned in the text, but for completeness in agricultural products category)**: No relevant information in the provided text. - **Wheat (not mentioned in the text, but for completeness in agricultural products category)**: No relevant information in the provided text. - **Rice (not mentioned in the text, but for completeness in agricultural products category)**: No relevant information in the provided text. **Others** - **Coking Coal**: The fundamentals of coking coal have not changed significantly. Supply is restricted by over - production checks and heavy rainfall in Shanxi, while demand is under pressure due to pre - parade environmental production restrictions at coking plants and steel mills. The price is expected to trade in a range [1]. - **Long - and Medium - term Treasury Bonds**: Multiple small and medium - sized banks have cut RMB deposit rates, which is beneficial for liquidity. In the context of increased risk appetite and a strong stock market, long - term bonds are expected to trade with a bearish bias [5]. - **Rubber**: Supply is in an increasing phase but is affected by weather, resulting in slower - than - expected growth. Demand is weak, with a decline in tire production and high inventory pressure. The price is expected to trade in a range [12]. - **PTA**: PTA production and social inventories have decreased, and downstream polyester demand has shown a slight recovery. However, the sustainability of the demand increase is uncertain. Given the weakening PX supply - demand and crude oil prices, it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach [13]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production has increased, downstream demand is stable, and port inventories have continued to accumulate. The inland market is weak, while the port market has stable basis and acceptable trading volume. The price is expected to trade in a range, and short - positions should be held with caution [10]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The price of LLDPE has been weak, production has decreased, and downstream demand is expected to improve. Cost support has strengthened. The price is expected to trade with a slightly bearish bias in the short - term [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The production of soda ash has decreased, and inventories have also declined slightly. The float glass market is stable, and downstream demand is mainly for low - price replenishment. The price of soda ash is expected to trade in a range, and it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach [9]. - **Live Hogs**: The shrinkage of farms has led to a slight improvement in low - price transactions. With the current low price, there is a growing sentiment of expecting a price increase. The price may rebound in the short - term, and it is recommended to take short - long positions. Farmers can choose the right time for hedging [6].

一场前所未有的政经风暴：特朗普解雇美联储理事，撼动百年独立根基 一、清晨推特引爆"金融风暴" 想象一下，如果有一天，美国总统突然解雇一位美联储理事，那会是怎样一番景象？这并非天方夜谭，而是真真切切地发生了。一声令下，现任美联储理事 丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）即刻走人！这绝非演习，而是美国政经领域的一场"地震"级事件。 然而，这真的是真相吗？早在2022年库克进入美联储时，国会就已对这一事件进行过详尽调查，当时并未发现任何问题。如今旧事重提，难免让人觉得这是 在"找借口"，背后另有隐情。 二、为何说这是一步"险棋"？ 美联储的特殊地位不容忽视。自1913年成立以来，它一直强调其独立性，不受政府直接干预，自主决定货币政策，自主管理理事任期。尽管美国总统有权提 名理事，但要想中途将其解雇，却难如登天。 2025年8月25日清晨，当许多美国人还沉浸在睡梦中时，特朗普在他的社交媒体上投下了一枚重磅炸弹：宣布立即解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克，没有任何预 兆，没有任何流程，只有一句冰冷的"她必须走人"。给出的理由是，库克多年前在房贷申请中涉嫌"提交不实信息"，重复申报"主要居所"以获取优惠。 法律条文明确规定，除非理事存 ...

库克在起诉书中称，特朗普政府解雇她的行为"史无前例且非法"。"独立的美联储对于经济稳定至关重 要，因为总统的短期政治利益往往与健全的货币政策相冲突。" 特朗普政府指称，库克在2021年的两笔房贷申请中作出虚假陈述。美司法部表示已展开调查，但尚未公 开提出任何指控。 中新社华盛顿8月28日电(记者陈孟统)美联储理事莉萨·库克(Lisa Cook)28日在华盛顿地区法院提起诉 讼，称特朗普政府无权解雇自己，并向法庭申请限制令阻止解职。 美国总统特朗普25日以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由，宣布解雇库克。库克回应称，特朗普无权解雇她， 将继续履职。 库克是首位担任美联储理事的非裔女性，她于2022年5月就任现职，任期至2038年。在特朗普持续施压 美联储降息的背景下，库克提起的诉讼被美国舆论视为美联储能否维持独立性的关键事件。 库克在诉讼中辩称，白宫的指控与她在任职期间的行为无关，也未被证实，且她未获机会回应。即便相 关指控属实，也不构成解职理由。 法院29日上午将就该案举行首次听证。美联储拒绝对此发表评论，仅表示将遵守法院裁决。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）的律师表示，美国总统特朗普要求将其罢免所依据的抵押贷款纠 纷，可能源于一次无意的"文书错误"。 律师团队由阿贝·洛厄尔（Abbe Lowell）带领，他们强调，特朗普和普尔特甚至没有明确声称库克因所 谓"文书错误"获益，更没有证据表明该错误是故意为之。 过去一周，普尔特多次在社交媒体上攻击库克。库克提起诉讼后，普尔特发文称"没有人可以凌驾于法 律之上"。 库克在法庭文件中还称，特朗普在她尚未回应普尔特的指控前，就试图解雇她，剥夺了她应享有的正当 程序宪法权利。她还表示，根据《联邦储备法》，她有权获得正式听证。 库克于周四提起诉讼，试图阻止特朗普的"非法企图"。该诉讼是在华盛顿特区联邦法院提起的，还将美 联储主席鲍威尔和美联储理事会本身列为被告，很可能最终由最高法院裁决。 库克称，特朗普援引的理由是虚假的借口，根本不构成足以将她逐出美联储的"正当理由"。在法庭文件 中，她的律师首次就指控她于2021年获得抵押贷款时，将两处房产欺诈性地列为"主要住所"提出了可能 的辩护理由。 特朗普任命的联邦住房金融局局长比尔·普 ...

Group 1: Oil Price Forecast - Goldman Sachs predicts that oil prices may drop to $50 per barrel by the end of 2026 due to increasing oversupply in the oil market [1][3] - The report indicates that global oil inventories could rise by nearly 800 million barrels by the end of 2026, with a daily oversupply of 1.8 million barrels expected from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026 [3] Group 2: Impact on U.S. Federal Reserve - The decline in oil prices is expected to significantly lower the energy component of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), potentially accelerating the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][5] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are growing, with implications for the U.S. dollar's value and broader economic stability [4][6] Group 3: Hong Kong Stock Market Dynamics - There is an acceleration of southbound capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks, with record net purchases observed in recent days, indicating a strong interest in the market [7][9] - The easing liquidity conditions in Hong Kong, coupled with expectations of U.S. rate cuts, are likely to support the performance of Hong Kong stocks, particularly in technology and financial sectors [8][9]

Group 1 - The lawsuit filed by Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook against President Trump challenges the legality of her removal, highlighting unprecedented scrutiny on the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - Cook's lawsuit argues that allegations of mortgage fraud stem from "document errors" and do not meet the standard for removal as outlined in the Federal Reserve Act, which requires "just cause" [1][2] - The lawsuit emphasizes that the accusations against Cook are politically motivated, aimed at reshaping the Federal Reserve board and pushing for interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - Trump and officials, including FHFA Director Bill Pulte, accuse Cook of misrepresenting her primary residence in federal mortgage applications, but the lawsuit counters that no evidence of intentional wrongdoing or personal gain has been presented [2] - Pulte's comments suggest that Cook's presence undermines the integrity of the U.S. mortgage market, while legal experts caution that avoiding specifics in such cases is common and may inadvertently support the accusations [2] - The broader concern raised by market analysts is the potential "Trumpification" of the Federal Reserve, with implications for Cook's position and the balance of power within the board if Trump successfully removes her [2]