Core Insights - The report emphasizes the stability of the social service sector while highlighting structural opportunities in strong platforms and brands [1][3] - The investment rating is maintained at "outperform the market" [2] Market Review - In May, the A-share social service sector underperformed the benchmark by 3.6 percentage points, while leading companies in the travel chain sector in Hong Kong and the US reached new highs after earnings reports [3][4] - The overall performance of the A-share social service sector was volatile, with some undervalued companies showing resilience [9] Platform vs. Brand Dynamics - The hotel industry is experiencing oversupply, which enhances the relative advantages of platforms over brands. The expected growth rate for hotel supply is projected to remain between 5-10% until 2025 [3][14] - Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) are benefiting from resilient leisure tourism and increased online penetration, leading to double-digit revenue growth in Q1 [3][12] Brand Performance - The operational efficiency of leading hotel brands is increasingly differentiated during challenging periods, with major players enhancing shareholder returns [3][26] - Companies like Atour and Huazhu are expanding their market share rapidly, leveraging their central reservation capabilities [3][26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in companies such as Tongcheng Travel, Ctrip Group-S, Meituan-W, and Atour, among others, based on the current economic environment and market trends [3][12] Financial Performance Overview - The financial performance of leading companies in the hotel and OTA sectors shows a divergence, with some brands experiencing significant growth while others face challenges [11][12] - For instance, Atour reported a 55.3% year-on-year increase in revenue for 2024, while Huazhu's revenue growth was more modest at 9.2% [11] Trends in Hotel Supply and Demand - The hotel supply is expected to grow due to favorable policies and declining rental costs, attracting diverse investors [14][20] - The demand for hotels is driven by resilient leisure travel, although business travel remains cyclical and is still under observation for recovery [20][22] Shareholder Returns - Leading companies are increasingly focusing on shareholder returns, with Atour and Huazhu announcing significant buyback and dividend plans [39][40] - The report highlights that overseas hotel leaders typically offer shareholder returns around 5%, indicating a trend towards enhancing shareholder value in the domestic market as well [39][40]

Group 1 - Toyota Motor Corporation (TM.US) announced a privatization deal for Toyota Industries Corporation (TYIDY.US) at a price of 3.7 trillion yen (approximately 26 billion USD), highlighting the Toyota family's control over the group and reflecting a shift in Japan's corporate governance model [1] - The acquisition price offered by Toyota Real Estate is 16,300 yen per share, which is a significant discount compared to the current market price of 18,400 yen per share, representing a 12.7% decrease [1] - The deal's actual valuation is 38% lower than the previously anticipated transaction size of 42 billion USD, indicating a notable reduction in market expectations [1] Group 2 - The cross-shareholding behavior among Japanese companies is facing increasing scrutiny from regulators and investors, leading to a rise in management buyouts and corporate acquisitions [2] - The Tokyo Stock Exchange has strengthened shareholder return requirements, prompting Japanese companies to accelerate the divestiture of non-core assets, with Toyota's move potentially serving as a benchmark case for simplifying ownership structures [2] - Simplifying the ownership structure can enhance decision-making efficiency and unlock asset value that has been "frozen" due to cross-shareholding arrangements [2]

兴业证券股份有限公司 为深入贯彻落实党的二十大和中央金融工作会议精神，落实国务院《关于加 强监管防范风险推动资本市场高质量发展的若干意见》及配套文件要求，兴业证 券股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）积极响应上海证券交易所《上海证券交易 所上市公司"提质增效重回报"专项行动一本通》倡议，制定公司 2025 年度"提 质增效重回报"行动方案，推动公司高质量发展和投资价值提升。本行动方案已 经公司第六届董事会第三十一次会议审议通过，具体如下： 一、推动高质量发展，提升经营质效 通过加强制度建设和落实，进一步推动投资者关系管理工作精细化和规范化，提 升研究分析水平，继续丰富与各类投资者沟通交流渠道，建立多层次投资者互动 和交流机制，及时、积极回应投资者关切，促进投资者关系管理工作提质增效； 当公司股价短期出现严重偏离市场指数和行业指数、脱离公司基本面大幅下跌时， 公司将结合实际经营情况和市场情况，积极采取综合措施稳股价、稳预期，增强 投资者信心。 学习贯彻党的二十届三中全会精神，扎实推动改革转型，积极抢抓市场机遇，锚 定一流投资银行建设目标，着力提升核心竞争力，公司经营发展稳中有进、进中 提质、趋势向好，取得一系列显著 ...

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett's investment actions, particularly in the consumer sector, are closely watched, with his recent significant investment in Constellation Brands drawing attention [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Actions - In Q4 2024, Berkshire Hathaway purchased 5.6243 million shares of Constellation Brands, valued at approximately $1.243 billion [2]. - In Q1 2025, Buffett increased his holdings in Constellation Brands by 638.47 million shares, a 113.52% increase, raising his total shares to 12.09 million, which represents 6.6% of the company, valued at around $2.2 billion [2]. - Notably, during the same period, Buffett significantly reduced his bank stock holdings while continuing to invest in Constellation Brands, marking it as his largest increase in Q1 [2]. Group 2: Company Overview - Constellation Brands is one of the largest producers of wine, beer, and spirits globally, with operations in the U.S., Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy, and holds a significant position in the high-end beverage market [5][7]. - The company's beer segment is its largest, with brands like Corona and Modelo leading the U.S. import beer market [5]. - Despite recent financial struggles, including three years of losses in the past five fiscal years, the company has a stable cash flow and strong brand value [3][13]. Group 3: Financial Performance - The company's total revenue for the fiscal year ending February 28, 2025, was $10.209 billion, a year-over-year increase of 2.48% [4]. - Operating profit for the same period was $3.365 billion, reflecting a 5.65% increase from the previous year [4]. - However, the company reported a net loss of $0.81 million, primarily due to significant investment losses related to its stake in Canopy Growth [4][16]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - Constellation Brands has been divesting underperforming brands, particularly in the wine and spirits sectors, to focus on its more profitable beer business [24][27]. - The company is expected to benefit from a projected 5.1% compound annual growth rate in the global beer market, with plans to leverage its strong brands for international expansion [27][29]. - The anticipated return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve as the company sheds low-performing assets and concentrates on its beer segment [29]. Group 5: Market Sentiment - Several major investment firms, including Fidelity, Vanguard, and BlackRock, have also increased their stakes in Constellation Brands, indicating a positive sentiment towards the company [22]. - The company's stock is considered undervalued, with a projected price-to-earnings ratio of around 12 times, and it has a stable dividend history, having increased its dividend for ten consecutive years [32][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mitsubishi Electric (Melco) [1][5][22]. Core Insights - Mitsubishi Electric is undergoing a significant transformation, shifting from a product sales-based business model to one that leverages data extracted from components, focusing on miniaturization and discontinuing non-strategic businesses [2][5]. - The company plans to invest in data center optical devices instead of power components due to a slowdown in xEV applications, and aims to localize its FA operations [2]. - Melco is targeting a shareholder return rate of 50% or higher and aims to maintain a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.3x [4][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Business Strategy - Melco expects sales to grow from ¥2.1 trillion and an operating profit margin of 6.6% in FY3/22 to ¥2.5 trillion and 9.3% in FY3/26, despite lower-than-expected trends in fixed asset control systems [8]. - The company plans to terminate businesses generating ¥0.5 trillion in sales as part of its portfolio review [8]. Cost Reduction - The company is focused on rapid cost reductions, particularly in China, to address challenges faced by its operations [3]. Capital Allocation - Melco is considering mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in growth sectors such as industrial, HVAC, and AI/digital technologies, with a new M&A budget set at ¥1 trillion through FY3/28 [4][10]. - The company aims to enhance profitability by improving operational efficiency and reallocating resources [10]. Financial Performance - Melco forecasts sales of approximately ¥680 billion for FY3/26, with a target of achieving at least 10% growth in operating profit margin [11][9]. - The company plans to increase production capacity in response to strong orders in its defense business and aims to restore operating profit margins to over 10% through restructuring and cost reductions [5][12]. Semiconductor and Device Business - Melco intends to limit investments in power devices while shifting focus to high-performing optical devices, with plans to accelerate the expansion of its HVDC power module business [20][21]. - The company aims to increase its optical device sales by over 20% annually [21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][7]. Core Views - The company is a leading global express delivery enterprise, with a double-digit growth in parcel volume since 2025, driving rapid profit growth. The expansion of the product matrix enhances competitiveness, ensuring future development and a focus on shareholder returns [7]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net profit growth of nearly 20% year-on-year, with a total of 4.876 billion parcels delivered, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.36%, outperforming the industry average [7]. - The company is expanding its presence in various supply chain segments, transitioning from sales logistics to integrated logistics solutions, which is expected to translate into increased parcel volume and revenue [7]. Summary by Sections Company Information - The target price for H shares is HKD 48, with the current price at HKD 40.20. The market capitalization is approximately RMB 164.59 billion [1]. - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 2.13 and a net asset value per share of RMB 18.87 [1]. Recent Ratings - The company has consistently received "Buy" ratings in recent evaluations, with the latest rating issued on March 31, 2025 [2]. Product Mix - The product mix consists of 70.4% express and large parcel services, 3.2% local delivery, and 26.0% supply chain and international services [3]. Financial Performance - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 11.93 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 17%. The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be RMB 2.39 [9]. - The company’s revenue is forecasted to reach RMB 306.1 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6% [11]. Shareholder Returns - The company has initiated a share buyback program with a total amount of RMB 500 million to RMB 1 billion, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC forecasts that Aneng Logistics (09956) will achieve adjusted net profits of 1.01 billion and 1.22 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to adjusted P/E ratios of 10.0x and 8.2x for those years, indicating a potential upside of 18.9% from the current price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue reached 2.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, with a gross profit of 410 million yuan, up 7% year-on-year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 226 million yuan, reflecting a 20% year-on-year growth, while the adjusted net profit was 242 million yuan, up 16% year-on-year, achieving a record high adjusted net profit margin of 9.4% [2] - The company managed to achieve good profit growth despite a weak market demand and high profit base, supported by a structural adjustment in cargo weight [2] Group 2: Cargo Structure and Pricing - The total volume of LTL (Less Than Truckload) freight in Q1 increased by 6% to 3.045 million tons, with mini parcels (under 70kg) and small parcels (70-300kg) growing by 27% and 12% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The average price per ton for LTL services rose by 3% to 850 yuan/ton, while the unit cost also increased by 3% to 715 yuan/ton, with specific service costs varying [4] Group 3: Competitive Position and Growth - The company saw a 67% year-on-year decrease in lost items per 100,000 parcels, with complaints also declining, indicating improved service quality [5] - The average delivery time shortened by 7% to approximately 65 hours, enhancing the company's competitive edge and attracting more franchisees, which grew by about 22% to 36,000 [5] Group 4: Liquidity and Shareholder Returns - As of Q1, the company had cash and cash equivalents of 2.01 billion yuan, a 50% year-on-year increase, indicating strong liquidity [6] - The company plans to disclose its dividend strategy after the mid-term results, with expectations for continued shareholder returns due to its leading position in the express delivery sector and ability to adapt pricing and volume strategies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company's 2024 performance is in line with expectations, with a significant decline in both revenue and net profit, but a potential recovery in ticket sales is anticipated for 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 4.08 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2%, falling within the forecast range of 4.05 to 4.15 billion yuan [1]. - Net profit for 2024 was 180 million yuan, down 80.0% year-on-year, also within the forecast range of 150 to 200 million yuan [1]. - Non-IFRS net profit was 310 million yuan, aligning with expectations [1]. Industry Trends - The main business is expected to decline in 2024 due to market pressures, with a focus on the recovery trend of ticket sales [1]. - The forecast for the 2025 film box office is 55 billion yuan, suggesting a potential recovery in ticket sales revenue of 25% to 30% year-on-year [1]. - The average ticket price increase and the performance of imported films may impact this recovery [1]. - The live performance ticketing sector is projected to grow by 15.4% year-on-year in 2024, with an expected industry growth rate of over 10% in 2025 [1]. Content Production - The company has a rich pipeline of films, with 63 domestic films produced in 2024, indicating a strong selection and data capability [2]. - Key films to watch include "The Lychee of Chang'an" and others scheduled for release in 2024, which may provide profit elasticity [2]. Shareholder Returns - The company announced its first dividend, proposing a final dividend of 0.32 HKD per share for the year ending December 31, 2024, with a dividend yield exceeding 4% based on the closing price [3]. - A three-year dividend plan aims to distribute at least 20% of net profit each fiscal year, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [3]. - The total amount for dividends and buybacks in 2024 is expected to account for 50% of retained earnings [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to pressure on actual ticket sales and a rigid recovery in gross margins, the Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 32.9% and 31.6% to 695 million and 802 million yuan, respectively [3]. - The current price corresponds to 11.9 and 10.2 times Non-IFRS P/E for 2025 and 2026 [3]. - The target price is maintained at 10.2 HKD, suggesting a 33.0% upside potential based on the adjusted profit forecasts and improving content supply in the industry [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 4.082 billion yuan in 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 14.2%, with a significant drop in net profit by 80% to 182 million yuan, aligning with previous guidance [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue breakdown: Entertainment content service revenue was 1.960 billion yuan (down 14.8% YoY), online entertainment ticketing service revenue was 1.922 billion yuan (down 14.9% YoY), and advertising services and other revenue was 200 million yuan (up 1.2% YoY) [1] - The company announced a dividend plan for 2024, proposing a payout of 0.32 HKD per share, totaling approximately 369 million HKD, which corresponds to a dividend yield of about 4.4% [2] - Adjusted net profit for 2024 was 310 million yuan, a decrease of 70% YoY [1][3] Group 2: Business Segments - The film ticketing sector faced challenges, with a 23% YoY decline in the overall box office, impacting ticketing revenue significantly [1] - The company participated in 63 domestic films in 2024, achieving a box office of 23.2 billion yuan, marking a historical high in participation and market coverage [1] - Live performance revenue grew by 15% YoY, with concert ticketing GMV increasing by approximately 90%, indicating a strong market position [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The film industry is expected to recover in 2025, with several films scheduled for release, including "Dumpling Queen" and "Lychee of Chang'an," which may positively impact ticketing and content investment [2] - The company aims to maintain a dividend policy of at least 20% of annual net profit for 2025-2027, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [2] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 4.898 billion, 5.399 billion, and 5.835 billion yuan, with expected net profit growth of 121%, 13%, and 12% respectively [3]

Group 1 - Company is a leading "technology + full entertainment" service provider in China, with a strong market position in online entertainment ticketing, entertainment content services, and advertising services [1] - Company holds a 60% market share in the film ticketing sector, making its performance highly sensitive to the film market [1] - Recent years have seen significant volatility in the film market due to the pandemic and supply cycles, impacting the company's performance [1] Group 2 - In 2024, company reported revenue of 4.082 billion yuan, a decrease of 14% year-on-year, primarily due to insufficient quality supply in the film market, with total box office down 22.6% to 42.5 billion yuan [2] - Entertainment content services revenue was 1.960 billion yuan, down 14.8% year-on-year, while online ticketing services revenue was 1.922 billion yuan, down 14.9% year-on-year [2] - Despite the decline in film ticketing, the live performance market grew, with ticket sales reaching 58 billion yuan, up 15%, and concert GMV increasing by 90% [2] Group 3 - Company achieved a net profit of 182 million yuan in 2024, a decline of 80%, attributed to increased costs from ticketing and poor performance of key films [3] - The company actively returned value to shareholders, repurchasing 50 million HKD worth of shares and maintaining a dividend of 0.32 HKD per share, yielding approximately 4.3% [3] - Future film releases are promising, with several projects in the pipeline, indicating potential for improved performance in key release periods [3] Group 4 - The film market is expected to recover in 2025, driven by the release of "Nezha 2," with an estimated total box office of 50 billion yuan [4] - Company forecasts revenue growth from 4.795 billion yuan in 2025 to 5.967 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profit growth from 566 million yuan to 843 million yuan [4] - Based on comparable companies, a target price of 7.48-8.55 HKD is set, with an "outperform" rating assigned [4]