Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In September 2025, the US CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, while core CPI also rose by 3.0% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, all below market expectations[2] - Overall inflation shows a marginal rebound, but core inflation is declining, indicating a potential easing impact from tariffs on US inflation[3] - Energy inflation rose significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, while food inflation increased by 3.1%, showing a slight decline from August[4] Group 2: Future Inflation Trends and Federal Reserve Actions - The report suggests that inflation may trend downward in the future, with core inflation expected to remain stable or decrease slightly[5] - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue lowering interest rates by 25 basis points, with a total expected reduction of 75 basis points for 2025, due to ongoing risks in the labor market and low consumer confidence[6] - Consumer confidence index recorded a low of 55 in October, indicating pessimism about future economic conditions[42] Group 3: Key Economic Indicators - The Michigan University inflation expectation remained stable at 4.6%, with a 5-year expectation at 3.7%, suggesting consumers do not anticipate rapid cost transfers to them despite income pressures[46] - The core services inflation, excluding housing, showed a year-on-year decline, reflecting significant differences across various consumption sectors[23] - Risks include potential inflation surprises due to international tensions and unexpected economic downturns in the US[47]

"9月核心CPI低于预期，这应会让美联储对其下周降息的计划感到更为安心。"布朗说，下周联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）中支持降息的力量可能进一步壮大。 他指出，9月通胀低于预期主要是因为租金价格涨幅较弱，其中，占CPI篮子权重高达26%的业主等价租金（OER）环比 仅上涨0.1%，主要居所租金微涨0.2%，均不及预期。另外，到目前为止，关税对通胀的传导效应整体仍不明显，但9月 再次出现多种潜在关税影响商品价格上涨的迹象。比如，服装价格环比上涨0.7%，新车价格上涨0.2%。不过，这些上 涨部分被二手车价格和医疗护理商品价格下跌所抵消。 惠誉评级美国经济研究主管奥卢·索诺拉也对智通财经表示，9月CPI数据让美联储松了一口气，不会影响其10月可能连 续第二次降息的计划。 智通财经记者 | 刘婷 美国9月通胀全线低于预期，这意味着下周美联储大概率将实施今年第二次降息。 劳工统计局周五晚发布的数据显示，9月，消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨3%，涨幅虽然为今年2月来最高，但不及预 期的3.1%；环比上涨0.3%，不及预期的0.4%，涨幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点。剔除能源和食品价格的核心CPI同比上涨 3%，环比上涨0 ...

Core Insights - The report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that the price increase for various goods and services in September was lower than expected, with the overall CPI rising by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, both below market expectations of 0.4% and 3.1% respectively [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, also showed a month-over-month increase of 0.2% and a year-over-year increase of 3.0%, again falling short of the anticipated 0.3% and 3.1% [1] - The report serves as a critical observation point for the U.S. economy during the government shutdown, although the future policy direction remains uncertain [1] Economic Concerns - There are ongoing concerns regarding Trump's tariff policies potentially leading to a new wave of severe inflation, while Federal Reserve officials are wary that the current weak hiring trends may spread, despite low layoff rates [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and his colleagues are cautious about the pace of interest rate cuts as they weigh inflation threats against a soft labor market [1] - Trump insists that inflation is no longer an issue and calls for aggressive interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1]

分析数据时需要注意到两个特殊背景：联邦政府雇员的失业救济申请出现异常波动，这与9月底超过15万员工接受买断方案直接相关；被迫休假的政府人员 可以申领失业金，但在获得补发工资后需按规定退还，这部分数据属于独立统计范畴。 续请失业金人数同样传递出市场信号。截至10月11日，该数据从192.8万人微升至194.2万人，这个逆向指标持续走高反映出失业人员再就业面临阻力。花旗 经济学家杨格观察到，往年此时因假日季带来的招聘热潮今年尚未显现，这可能预示着第四季度就业市场动能减弱。 面对这些现象，市场对美联储政策的预期正在加强。多数分析认为，为防范劳动力市场进一步放缓，美联储可能采取相应措施。当前数据波动尚在正常范围 内，企业并未出现大规模裁员迹象，这与8月失业率升至4.3%的表现相互印证。 在政府停摆的特殊时期，这些由金融机构自主测算的数据为观察劳动力市场提供了重要窗口。虽然部分统计工作受到影响，经济学家通过应用季节性调整参 数，仍然构建出评估市场状况的有效参照系。延迟上报或许能提高调查问卷的回收率，这正是以往就业数据需要大幅修正的关键因素。 近期美国劳动力市场数据引发关注。在政府停摆导致部分经济统计缺失的背景下，多家金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent US inflation data is unlikely to have a lasting impact on the US dollar, according to Deutsche Bank analyst Antje Praefcke [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Inflation Data Impact** The delayed release of US inflation data may reveal whether tariff policies have increased inflation levels, but it is "unlikely to change the decision-making tone" of the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, as most Fed members believe any impact from tariffs on inflation will be temporary [1][2]. - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision** Even if the inflation data exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve may still implement a rate cut on October 29, as the current focus is on employment conditions, with recent deterioration in the labor market providing justification for a rate cut [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming FOMC meeting on October 28-29 to support a weakening labor market while aiming to bring inflation back to the 2% target [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Recent statements from U.S. officials indicate a high probability of interest rate cuts in the short term, with the labor market being a key factor driving this monetary policy adjustment [2]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted signs of further cooling in the labor market, suggesting a potential second rate cut of the year to address the sharp slowdown in job growth [2][3]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October is around 98%, according to the FedWatch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [3]. Group 2: Labor Market Insights - The latest Beige Book report indicates that the U.S. economy is experiencing a complex phase of inflationary pressure alongside a weakening labor market, with many employers resorting to layoffs due to weak demand and economic uncertainty [2][5]. - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem expressed support for a rate cut if labor market risks continue, while also cautioning against excessive easing due to ongoing inflation risks [3][6]. Group 3: Balance Sheet Management - Powell hinted that the Fed's balance sheet reduction process may be nearing its end, with signs of tightening liquidity conditions [4]. - Analysts suggest that ending the balance sheet reduction would signal a shift from tightening to easing monetary policy, with expectations for a potential announcement in October or December [4][5]. - The Fed's total liabilities have decreased to $6.5 trillion as of October 8, down from a peak of approximately $9 trillion [5]. Group 4: Inflation Concerns - Despite the consensus on a potential rate cut, there remains internal division within the Fed regarding the future path of rate cuts, with several officials emphasizing the need to remain vigilant about inflation risks [5][6]. - The Beige Book noted that tariffs imposed during the Trump administration are contributing to rising overall inflation, complicating the balance between absorbing costs and passing them on to customers [5][6]. - Musalem warned that the impact of tariffs on price pressures may continue for the next two to three quarters, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [6][7].

格隆汇10月20日｜根据世界银行的数据，亚洲在全球劳动力市场中占据主导地位，其中中国(7.74亿)和 印度(6.08亿)合计贡献全球超40%的劳动力。美国拥有1.74亿劳动力人口，位居世界第三，在发达经济体 中维持领先地位。印度尼西亚和尼日利亚紧随其后，分别拥有1.43亿和1.13的劳动力人口。 (责任编辑：宋政 HN002) 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Core Viewpoint - The fixed income market is experiencing credit concerns, leading to a decline in yields, particularly in the 10-year Treasury, which is currently below 4%, marking the lowest level in some time [1][2]. Fixed Income Market Analysis - The 10-year Treasury is expected to trade in a rangebound manner, with the current level potentially being the lower end of that range, influenced by psychological factors at the 4% mark [3]. - There is a lack of catalysts in the fixed income market, primarily due to the government shutdown, which has limited the flow of data [5][6]. - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on the 24th is anticipated to be a significant event, as it is one of the few data points available, although its completeness is in question [6][7]. Federal Reserve Commentary - The Federal Reserve appears divided, with differing views among officials regarding interest rate cuts, with expectations leaning towards a cut this month to mitigate potential labor market deterioration [8][9][12]. - Recent commentary from Fed officials suggests a focus on the labor market, with indications of a softening trend based on the ADP report [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar continues to weaken, with the dollar index reported at 98.182, down 0.17%, as the market anticipates upcoming economic data that may influence dollar fluctuations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The US economy is facing a complex situation with both a weak labor market and inflationary pressures as the Federal Reserve's policy meeting approaches in October 2025 [1] - Several Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns about the labor market while maintaining a relatively optimistic view on inflation caused by trade tariffs [1] - Waller, a potential successor for the Fed chair, supports gradual rate cuts, while other officials advocate for more aggressive actions, highlighting internal divisions within the Fed regarding future economic paths [1][2] Group 2: Employment Data Concerns - Waller emphasized the reliance on private sources for employment data due to the government shutdown, which has led to inconsistent signals but an overall "clear warning" regarding the labor market [2] - He supports a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which would lower the policy rate from the current range of 4.00% to 4.25% [2] Group 3: Dollar Index Technical Analysis - The dollar index has fallen below the key level of 98.714, which has now become a resistance level, with the next important support at 98.238 and a critical level at 98.033 [3] - Since reaching a multi-month high of 99.563 on October 9, the dollar index has been on a downward trend, indicating potential for increased market volatility as it approaches long-term trend indicators [3] - Short-term resistance for the dollar index is identified between 98.55 and 98.60, with significant support levels at 98.15 to 98.20 and 98.00 to 98.05 [3]

美联储主席鲍威尔声称，当前劳动力市场降温、通胀回升，美联储已陷入"无风险路径可选"的困境。若 官员们为抑制通胀而维持高利率，可能会损害劳动力市场；若为支撑劳动力市场而降息，又可能让通胀 更难控制。 目前来看，鲍威尔似乎更愿意在通胀问题上"冒险"。他的理由是，今年夏季招聘大幅放缓后，劳动力市 场面临的风险已显著上升。种种迹象表明，美联储将在本月底的下次会议上，实施今年第二次降息。9 月发布的预测还显示，多数官员认为，在12月今年最后一次会议上，仍有空间再降25个基点。 但有经济学家警告，若劳动力市场未进一步走弱，美联储的降息空间可能仅限于此。若继续大幅降息， 通胀可能会被困在美联储2%的目标之上。 "通胀长期大幅偏离目标，对美联储而言是切实风险。"德意志银行、首席美国经济学家马修·卢泽蒂 （Matthew Luzzetti）表示，"边际宽松政策将导致通胀在更高水平维持更久。" 鲍威尔对通胀的乐观态度，源于他的两个判断：一是特朗普的关税政策仅会导致消费者价格一次性上 涨，而非引发多轮涨价、推升持续性通胀；二是劳动力市场走弱将抑制消费价格涨幅——尤其是在薪资 增长疲软、失业率上升、整体支出放缓的情况下。他的乐观态度 ...