Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [2] Core Views - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a divergence in brand performance, with manufacturing sentiment improving [2] - Retail growth in the apparel sector showed a slight deceleration in Q2, but there is potential for improvement in Q3 due to a lower base from the previous year [3] - Key players in the H-share market, such as Anta Sports and 361 Degrees, are expected to maintain double-digit revenue growth in H1 2025, while other brands like Xtep and Li Ning are projected to achieve single-digit revenue growth [5][8] - A-share brands are showing mixed performance, with some companies like Weigang Medical and Hailan Home benefiting from strong retail growth and product expansion [8] Summary by Sections Textile Manufacturing - Sentiment in textile manufacturing is improving, focusing on stable growth for oversold leaders [2] - Key recommendations include Shenzhou International, Crystal International, and Huayi Group, which are expected to show resilience in performance [2] Brand Apparel - The brand apparel sector is witnessing a split in performance, with some companies achieving growth despite retail environment pressures [8] - Notable performers include Weigang Medical, Hailan Home, and Luolai Life, which are expected to see significant revenue and profit growth in Q2 [8][9] Market Outlook - The outlook for the second half of the year emphasizes focusing on industry leaders with positive operational changes and attractive valuations, such as Hailan Home and Weigang Medical [9] - The Hong Kong market for sports and functional apparel is expected to remain resilient, with recommendations for brands like Anta Sports and Bosideng [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has shifted its focus back to tariffs and trade following the passage of the "Great American Rescue Plan," with a series of high-intensity tariff actions initiated in early July [1] Tariff Actions - Trump announced three rounds of tariffs from July 7 to 10, targeting 14 countries with tariffs ranging from 25% to 40%, 8 countries with tariffs from 20% to 50%, and a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, along with a unified tariff of 15% or 20% for other countries [1] - The effective average tariff rate in the U.S. is expected to stabilize around 15-16% in the near future, with most newly notified countries having a negligible impact on the overall effective tax rate [1][2] Market Reaction - Following the announcement of new tariffs, major asset prices remained stable, with the U.S. stock market reaching new highs and the long-term U.S. Treasury yield rising slightly to around 4.4% [5] - Investors appear to be desensitized to Trump's tariff policies, viewing them more as negotiation tactics rather than significant threats [5] Tariff Revenue - U.S. tariff revenue surged to $26.6 billion in June, quadrupling the usual level, with total revenue for the first half of the year reaching $87.2 billion [5] - The 10% baseline tariff has generated over $17.7 billion in revenue, with specific tariffs on the automotive sector contributing more than $10.7 billion [5] Future Projections - Analysts predict that if the average effective tariff rate remains between 10-14%, it could yield annual tariff revenues of $300 billion to $400 billion, potentially offsetting the increased spending from the "Great American Rescue Plan," which is estimated to add $340 billion annually [6] - The effective tariff rate is projected to be around 2.3% by the end of 2024, with potential increases if new tariffs are fully implemented [6][10] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The impact of tariffs on inflation appears limited, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7% in June, lower than earlier in the year [11] - The Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts due to the potential for tariffs to exert lasting inflationary pressure, with expectations for a rate hold in July and a possible cut in September [14]

7月23日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。当地时间22日，美国总统特朗普宣布，美国与日本达 成贸易协议，日本将向美国支付15%的对等关税。会上，路透社记者提问，中方对此有何评论？郭嘉昆 回应，中方一贯主张各方通过平等对话协商解决经贸分歧，维护良好的国际经贸合作环境。(智通财经) ...

Group 1 - The core agreement between the US and Japan involves a 15% tariff on Japanese cars exported to the US, which is the lowest among all new reciprocal tariff rates announced by the US [1][2] - Japan will increase its rice imports from the US within the existing quota, maintaining a total import volume of 770,000 tons annually with zero import tariffs [2] - The agreement aims to encourage Japanese investment in the US, with a total investment and financing framework of up to $550 billion, focusing on sectors like semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and AI [3][4] Group 2 - The new reciprocal tariff will lower the existing tariff on Japanese cars from 25% to 15%, combining a 12.5% tariff and a basic rate of 2.5%, without imposing import quantity limits [2][3] - The negotiations faced challenges, with Japan seeking a review of tariffs in exchange for significant investments, while the US demanded further market access, particularly in the automotive sector [4] - The agreement is part of a broader initiative called "Japan Investment America Initiative," which aims to bolster economic security through targeted investments [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The domestic economy in the first half of the year remained resilient, with China's GDP in H1 growing by 5.3% year-on-year, higher than the annual target of 5%. Fiscal efforts and the "rush to export" phenomenon supported the economic data, but also reduced the urgency of policies. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July for potential further pro - growth policies [1]. - Since July, there has been an increasing expectation of "anti - involution" policies in industries such as steel, photovoltaic, lithium battery, and new energy vehicles. However, more detailed energy - saving and carbon - reduction policies are needed to promote the "anti - involution" trading [2]. - After the passage of the "Great Beautiful" Act in the US, Trump has shifted his focus to external pressure to accelerate tariff negotiations. The current tariff situation is in a "stagnant" stage, and its impact on sentiment and demand expectations should be watched out for [3]. - The current commodity fundamentals are still weak, and one should be cautious about the implementation of policy expectations. The volatility of commodity prices may remain high [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's export performance in June was remarkable, with a new round of "rush to export" under the easing of Sino - US tariffs. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in June slowed to 4.8% due to the suspension of policy subsidies in some areas, but subsequent subsidies are expected to support domestic consumption. Infrastructure and manufacturing investments declined, and the risk of the weak real - estate sales dragging down the real - estate chain still exists. On July 22, A - shares strengthened throughout the day, and the commodity futures market saw a wave of limit - up for many varieties such as coking coal and coke, stimulating the full - scale outbreak of cyclical stocks [1]. "Anti - Involution" Transaction Tracking - Since July, relevant departments have emphasized the governance of disorderly low - price competition among enterprises. The expectation of "anti - involution" policies in industries such as steel, photovoltaic, and lithium battery has increased, and the prices of some commodities have rebounded. The upcoming ten key industry pro - growth work plans for industries like steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals will focus on structural adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity [2]. "对等 Tariff" Impact - The passage of the "Great Beautiful" Act in the US has shifted its policy from "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary policy" in the first half of the year to a stage where policies are "easy to loosen and difficult to tighten." The US Treasury Secretary said that tariff revenues are "huge" and may account for 1% of the US GDP, with expected tariff revenues of up to $2.8 trillion in the next decade. Trump has extended the grace period for the "equal tariff" and started the "equal tariff 2.0" stage. The US has sent tariff letters to 25 countries in 4 batches, and negotiations with various countries are in progress [3]. Commodity Sector - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, and the short - term geopolitical premium in the energy sector has ended, with a relatively loose medium - term supply outlook. OPEC + has accelerated production increases, and the third direct Russia - Ukraine negotiation will be held this week [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, one should consider long - term positions in industrial products on dips [5]

Group 1: Trade Agreement Impact - The US and Japan have reached a trade agreement, reducing the reciprocal tariff rate from 25% to 15%, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the US and opening its market for agricultural products [2][4][5] - Japanese automotive stocks surged, with Mitsubishi Motors and Mazda both rising over 10%, while Honda and Nissan increased by more than 7% [2][3] - The agreement is expected to create hundreds of thousands of jobs in the US, with Trump claiming that the US will receive 90% of the profits from Japan's investment [4] Group 2: Japanese Market Reaction - The Nikkei 225 index rose over 2% following the announcement of the trade agreement, reflecting positive market sentiment [1][2] - Specific automotive stocks showed significant gains, with Mazda at 12.89%, Mitsubishi at 12.10%, and Toyota at 10.05% [3] Group 3: South Korean Market Response - The South Korean KOSPI index increased by 0.58%, reaching 3188.42 points, although concerns about the US's tariff policies are affecting business confidence [7][8] - A survey indicated that the business sentiment index for South Korean companies remains pessimistic, with a reading of 92.6, indicating more pessimists than optimists [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trade agreement between the United States and Japan, which has positively impacted the Japanese stock market, particularly the Nikkei 225 index, which rose over 2% following the announcement [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - President Trump announced that the U.S. and Japan have reached a significant trade agreement, reducing the reciprocal tariff rate from 25% to 15% [5][6]. - Japan is set to invest $550 billion in the U.S. and will open its market for various agricultural products, including rice [5][6]. - The agreement is expected to create hundreds of thousands of jobs in the U.S. and is described by Trump as potentially the largest trade deal in history [6][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the trade agreement news, the Nikkei 225 index opened high and increased by 2.07%, reaching 40,596.57 points [3][4]. - Japanese automotive stocks saw significant gains, with Mazda and Mitsubishi both rising over 10%, and Honda and Nissan increasing by over 7% [4][5]. - The trading volume for Toyota was so high that trading was temporarily halted due to excessive buy orders [4]. Group 3: South Korean Market Response - The South Korean KOSPI index rose by 0.58% to 3,188.42 points, but the outlook remains cautious due to the impending U.S. tariffs [9]. - A survey indicated that South Korean companies are pessimistic about their prospects for August, with a Business Survey Index (BSI) of 92.6, indicating more pessimists than optimists [9]. - The manufacturing sector's BSI is at 87.1, reflecting 17 months of negative sentiment, while only the pharmaceutical and semiconductor industries show optimism [9].

美国总统特朗普周二宣布，他与菲律宾总统小费迪南德·马科斯（Ferdinand Marcos Jr.）达成一项贸易协 议。随后，他还披露了与印度尼西亚贸易协议的更多细节。 两项协议均允许美国对从上述两国进口的商品征收19%的关税（由美国企业支付），而美国出口至这两 个国家的商品则无需缴税。 特朗普是在周二与马科斯在白宫会晤后宣布美菲协议的。"这是一次愉快的访问，我们达成了贸易协 议，"特朗普在其社交平台"真相社交"上写道。不过，目前尚不清楚双方是否正式签署了文件。与近期 其他贸易协议的宣布类似，协议细节最初的披露有限。 美菲协议是特朗普在过去三个月内达成的第五项贸易协定。他本月早些时候宣布的美越协议至今仍无新 细节披露，政府官员也未解释原因。 根据白宫发布的联合声明，印尼将对美国工业产品以及食品和农产品消除约99%的关税壁垒。 特朗普及其团队强调，印尼同意调整多项非关税贸易壁垒，包括取消对数字服务收入（如流媒体和社交 媒体广告）的征税，以及取消对美国商品的"装运前检验或验证要求"。官员们在周二的电话会议上表 示，后者对美国农民出口构成严重负担，取消后将有助于开拓市场。 周二早些时候在椭圆形办公室，特朗普对记者表 ...

美国总统特朗普：日本将向美国支付15%的对等关税。 ...

Group 1: Trade Agreements - The U.S. has reached a trade agreement with the Philippines, where a 19% tariff will be imposed on goods from the Philippines and Indonesia, to be borne by U.S. companies, while U.S. exports to these countries will be tariff-free [1][2] - This agreement with the Philippines marks the fifth trade agreement announced in the past three months, with previous agreements lacking detailed disclosures [1] - The U.S. government has shifted its focus from quantity to quality in trade agreements, as indicated by recent statements from President Trump [1] Group 2: Tariff Changes and Economic Impact - President Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on all trade partners up to 50%, with a deadline for negotiations set for August 1, after which countries failing to reach agreements will face higher tariffs [2] - The U.S. imported $14 billion worth of goods from the Philippines last year, primarily electronics and processed foods, while exporting $9 billion, mainly consisting of electronics and processed foods [2] - Indonesia has agreed to eliminate several non-tariff barriers, including taxes on digital service revenues and pre-shipment inspections, which could facilitate U.S. agricultural exports to Indonesia [3] Group 3: Indonesia Trade Details - Indonesia is the 23rd largest trading partner of the U.S., with imports totaling $28 billion in 2024, mainly consisting of clothing and footwear, while U.S. exports to Indonesia are projected at $10 billion, focusing on oilseeds, grains, and energy products [3] - The agreement with Indonesia includes acceptance of U.S. federal vehicle safety standards and the removal of export restrictions on key minerals [3]