Market Overview - The report indicates a positive sentiment in the equity market, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI Dividend Index rising by 1.16%, 1.31%, and 0.95% respectively on April 10 [2] - The technology sector saw a rotation from large-cap stocks to small-cap stocks, with the STAR 50, STAR Composite Index, and ChiNext Index increasing by 1.09%, 2.06%, and 2.27% respectively [2] - The bond market exhibited a mixed performance, with short-term yields declining due to easing liquidity, while long-term yields rose amid expectations [2][4] Commodity Performance - Precious metals prices rebounded, with both London and New York gold surpassing $3100 per ounce, and domestic gold and silver rising by 3.21% and 3.44% respectively [3] - Industrial metals and energy prices also saw recovery, with New York copper increasing by over 4% and domestic copper rising by 3.86% [3] - In the domestic market, construction-related commodities such as rebar and iron ore saw increases of 2.01% and 3.06% respectively, while coking coal and glass experienced slight declines [3] Currency and Liquidity - The report notes a weakening of the US dollar, which alleviated depreciation pressure on the Chinese yuan, with both onshore and offshore yuan rates approaching 7.32 [3] - The liquidity environment improved, with the central bank conducting a net withdrawal operation of 157.5 billion yuan, yet funding rates remained stable [4] - Overnight funding costs fell to around 1.65%, indicating a comfortable liquidity position [4] Sector Performance - The consumer sector continued to lead gains, particularly in discretionary spending categories such as retail, automotive, and light manufacturing, with respective increases of 4.83%, 3.21%, and 2.93% [7] - The technology sector also performed well, with media, electronics, and communications indices rising by 3.20%, 2.58%, and 2.47% respectively [7] - The report highlights a strong rebound in the A-share market, driven by expectations of stable growth policies and a potential easing of trade tensions [6][7] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.06% and 2.66% respectively, with consumer, materials, and defense sectors showing strong performance [8] - Despite a net outflow of 4.03 billion HKD from southbound funds, the market sentiment remained positive, reflecting a tendency for profit-taking after recent gains [8] - The report notes that the AH share premium index remains around 140, indicating that Hong Kong stocks are still in a recovery phase [8]

钢铁股集体重挫，截至发稿，马鞍山钢铁股份(00323)跌19.44%，报1.45港元；鞍钢股份（000898） (00347)跌17.96%，报1.37港元；中国东方集团(00581)跌17.19%，报1.06港元；重庆钢铁（601005）股份 (01053)跌16.09%，报0.73港元。 民生证券指出，贸易摩擦担忧升级，钢材价格承压。4月2日，特朗普宣布对贸易伙伴征收所谓的"对等 关税"措施，4月9日将实施34%所谓的"对等关税"。钢铁产品不受本次关税约束，但其下游制成品将受 到关税影响。根据钢联测算，2024年钢铁间接对美出口约1000万吨，其他国家对美出口的钢材也有部分 来自于中国，整体影响量预计不低于2000万吨，约占总需求的2%。长期来看，粗钢仍有产量调控预 期，原料端铁矿、焦煤供给趋于宽松，若限产幅度超过2000万吨，钢企盈利能力有望修复。 信达证券（601059）表示，虽然钢铁行业现阶段面临供需矛盾突出等困扰，行业利润整体下行，但伴随 系列"稳增长"政策纵深推进，钢铁需求总量有望在房地产筑底企稳、基建投资稳中有增、制造业持续发 展、钢铁出口高位等支撑下保持平稳或甚至边际略增，反观平控政策预期下 ...

Investment Strategy - The report highlights that the recent implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. is expected to increase global trade costs, leading to potential inflationary or recessionary pressures on the global economy [1][8] - The tariffs include a 10% minimum baseline tariff and higher tariffs on specific countries, with China facing a 34% tariff, which could exacerbate external demand challenges for China [7][8] Short-term and Mid-term Market Impact - In the short term, risk appetite is likely to be under pressure due to inflation or recession narratives, impacting asset pricing and increasing demand for safe-haven assets [3][10] - Historical data suggests that after tariff announcements, the A-share market may experience initial pressure followed by potential rebounds, depending on new catalysts [10] - Mid-term asset pricing will revert to fundamentals, with the actual impact of tariffs and retaliatory measures from other countries being crucial [10] Policy Response and Domestic Growth - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the actual impact of tariffs and potential policy responses, as external demand contraction may necessitate stronger domestic growth policies [2][9] - There is an expectation for increased domestic policy measures to stimulate growth, such as interest rate cuts and consumption incentives, especially if negotiations yield positive outcomes before the tariffs take effect [2][9] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests a defensive approach focusing on dividend-paying assets, as market risk appetite is expected to decline [4][11] - Key sectors to consider include telecommunications, transportation, utilities, and state-owned banks, which are likely to attract defensive capital [11] - Additionally, there is a recommendation to explore offensive opportunities in sectors that may benefit from tariff exemptions or domestic growth policies, such as local consumption and infrastructure investments [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [5] Core Views - The coal sector has shown a relative performance improvement, with a decline of 0.86% compared to a 2.29% drop in the CSI 300 index, indicating a 1.43 percentage point outperformance [7] - Domestic thermal coal prices are under pressure due to seasonal demand weakness, while overseas prices are recovering [8] - Coking coal prices are declining, but demand is gradually improving as downstream industries resume operations [9] - The report suggests that while thermal coal prices are weak, seasonal recovery in non-electric industries may offset some demand losses, leading to potential stabilization in coking coal prices [10] Summary by Sections Market Review - The coal sector's PE valuation is at 10.43 times, at the 51.96 percentile over the past decade, while the PB valuation is at 1.23 times, at the 30.59 percentile [7] Domestic and International Coal Prices - As of March 23, domestic thermal coal prices are at 680 RMB/ton, down 1.45% week-on-week, while international prices for Australian, European, and South African coal have seen slight increases [8] - Domestic coking coal prices are at 1150 RMB/ton, down 4.17% week-on-week, with international prices also declining [9] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading coal companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable operations, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as undervalued coking coal companies with improving operational conditions [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has shown a relative performance improvement, with a decrease of 0.86% last week, outperforming the benchmark index (CSI 300) by 1.43 percentage points [6] - Domestic thermal coal prices are under pressure due to seasonal demand weakness, while overseas prices are recovering [7] - CCTD Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal market price is 680 RMB/ton, down 1.45% week-on-week [7] - Focus on companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable operations, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as undervalued coking coal enterprises [9] Market Review - The coal sector's PE valuation is at 10.43 times, at the 51.96 percentile over the past decade, while the PB valuation is at 1.23 times, at the 30.59 percentile [6] - The coal sector has experienced relative returns of -17% over the past month, -10% over three months, and -21% over twelve months [5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic thermal coal supply is tightening, with production potentially affected by safety inspections in major mining areas [7] - Coking coal prices are declining, but demand is gradually improving as downstream construction activities resume [8] - The demand for non-electric industries (like steel and chemicals) is expected to seasonally rebound, which may offset the decline in heating demand [9]

广发宏观周度述评（第7期） 广发宏观周度述评（第1-6期，复盘必读） 内容 第一， 今年经济节奏可能会不同于过去两年。 年初以来，经济数据整体实现开门红。1-2月六大口径数据中，工业、消费、服务业、投资、地产销售同比增速均 高于去年5.0%的实际GDP所对应的年度增速。但由于过去两年均是在一季度形成景气高点，今年市场存在对经济"前高后低"的担心，应该怎么看这一问题？ 首先，简单以PMI作为观测标准，历史上确实有些年份一季度形成相对景气高点，但也有不少年份不同，比如2013年景气峰值在下半年，2014-2015在年中， 2016年经济全年震荡向上，2017年在三季度。 其次，年初形成景气高点的年份，往往存在特定的经济调结构因素。比如2011年是控通胀，2月开始加息；2012年是地产调控，年初地产销售大幅度转负；2018 年是结构性去杠杆；2021年是专项债穿透式监管叠加房地产调控；2023-2024年是隐性债务化解，2024年还包括金融"防空转、挤水分"。从政策节奏来说，调 结构防风险往往位于二季度，它容易带来一季度景气高点。 今年经济节奏有望有所不同： （1）本轮稳增长是去年三季度末启动，至今两个季度，经济好 ...

银行行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 政府债支撑社融增速企稳回升，化债扰动 贷款增长 ——2 月金融数据点评 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 当前进入稳增长政策密集落地期，宽货币先行，宽财政紧随，地方化债显著提速， 对 25 年银行基本面产生深刻影响；财政政策力度加码，支撑社融信贷并提振经济预 期，顺周期品种有望受益；广谱利率下行区间，银行净息差短期承压，但高息存款 进入集中重定价周期叠加监管对高息揽存行为持续整治，对 25 年银行息差形成重要 呵护；25 年是银行资产质量夯实之年，政策托底下，房地产、城投资产风险预期有 望显著改善，风险暴露和处置较为充分的部分个贷品种也有望迎来资产质量拐点。 ⚫ 现阶段关注两条投资主线： 1、高股息品种，建议关注工商银行(601398，未评级)、建设银行(601939，未评 级)、农业银行(601288，未评级)、江苏银行(600919，买入)。 2、风险预期改善，以及一季度受债券市场调整扰动较小，基本面确定性较强的品 种，建议关注渝农商行(601077，买入)、宁波银行(002142，买入)、上海银行 (601229，未评级)、招商银行(600036，未评级)。 风险提示 ...