国新国证期货早报 2025 年 5 月 9 日 星期五 客服产品系列•日评 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周四（5 月 8 日）A 股三大指数集体收涨，沪指涨 0.28%，收报 3352.00 点；深证成指涨 0.93%， 收报 10197.66 点；创业板指涨 1.65%，收报 2029.45 点。沪深两市成交额达到 12934 亿，较昨日缩量 1749 亿。 沪深 300 指数 5 月 8 日震荡趋强，收盘 3852.90，环比上涨 21.27。 【焦炭 焦煤】5 月 8 日焦炭加权指数弱势，收盘价 1479.8 元，环比下跌 33.9。 5 月 8 日，焦煤加权指数弱势运行，收盘价 894.5 元，环比下跌 19.3。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：港口焦炭现货市场报价不变，日照港准一级冶金焦现货价格 1320 元/吨，较上期价格不变。供应，当 前多数焦企盈利水平多处于盈亏平衡附近，整体开工负荷维持高稳，下游钢厂高炉铁水产量较高，对焦炭需求维 持偏好，部分厂内库存中性偏低，压力较大的企业降价销售。需求端，钢厂盈利能力仍旧较好，高炉开工率维持 高位，247 家钢厂日均铁水产量回升，对焦炭需求较 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a slight decline in both spot and futures prices, with a weak balance between supply and demand leading to a bearish outlook for steel prices in the short term [1][14]. Group 1: Market Analysis - On May 8, the spot steel market saw a slight decrease, with major futures contracts all declining. Rebar prices hit a one-month low at 3047 yuan/ton, while hot-rolled steel dropped by 1.18% and iron ore and coking coal fell by over 2% [1][14]. - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to launch approximately 3 trillion yuan worth of quality projects this year, which is expected to boost steel demand and positively impact steel prices [2][14]. - After the holiday, total inventory of five major steel products increased by 289,700 tons to 14.76 million tons, ending a nine-week decline. However, apparent demand dropped significantly by 1.25 million tons to 8.45 million tons, indicating limited recovery in demand post-holiday [3][14]. Group 2: Production and Inventory - Weekly production of rebar decreased by 98,500 tons, with apparent demand dropping nearly 30% or 778,000 tons, leading to an inventory increase of 96,300 tons. Hot-rolled steel production slightly increased, but apparent demand fell by nearly 7% [3][4]. - The overall inventory situation shows a slight increase in both factory and social inventories, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [3][14]. Group 3: Price Trends - As of May 8, the average prices for various steel products showed slight declines, with rebar at 3340 yuan/ton and hot-rolled steel at 3340 yuan/ton, reflecting a general downward trend in the market [7][14]. - Futures prices for all major steel products closed lower, with rebar futures down 1.74% and iron ore futures down 2.73%, indicating bearish sentiment in the market [9][14]. Group 4: Raw Material Market - The price of imported iron ore showed a slight decline, with supply and demand remaining stable but concerns about future demand persisting. The market expects iron ore prices to fluctuate within a narrow range [12][14]. - Coking coal prices remained stable, supported by good demand from steel mills, although some steel mills have reduced their purchasing activity due to high inventory levels [12][14]. - Scrap steel prices remained stable with minor fluctuations, but the overall market sentiment is weak due to reduced demand from electric arc furnace steel mills [12][14].

此次利率决议符合市场预期，黄金市场反应平淡，金价维持高位震荡。但从大方向看，黄金多头格局未变，仍处于相对强势阶段。 周线级别上，黄金价格在 3070 区域获得支撑；日线级别，本周一价格突破阻力位，当前支撑在 3337 区域。今日早间黄金开盘后快 速拉升至 3414 美元，突破昨日3400-3405 美元，若回落确认支撑，有望继续上攻。当前多空分界点在 3360 美元下方，鉴于黄金当前 涨势罕见，传统 K 线组合、双顶信号等判断方式或已失效。目前上方阻力在3397-3411，下方支撑在3363-3355，操作上徐老师建议 回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅。 操作策略1：建议反弹3394-3400空，损3406，目标看3370-3355。 凌晨的美联储利率决议尘埃落定，维持利率不变。美联储表示通胀与失业率上升风险加剧，在应对特朗普关税政策影响的背景下， 经济前景不确定性进一步增大。美联储鲍威尔指出的不确定性，已对个人和企业情绪产生影响，不过经济基本面仍较为健康。若后 续经济数据支持，降息存在可能性，但在形势更明朗前，不会贸然改变政策。通胀和失业率风险增加等支撑金价，同时需关注英国 央行利率决议等消息以及俄乌、中东局势。 ...

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8080 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - International soybean situation: It is currently the US soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season, with Brazil's soybean harvest almost completed, and a bumper South American new - crop is likely [2] - Domestic industry: The medium - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending, and the inventory may rebound after the arrival and customs clearance of South American imported soybeans [2] - Reference view: The short - term trend of the soybean oil 2509 contract may be range - bound [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, and Dongguan are 3090 yuan/ton (-10), 3300 yuan/ton (120), and 3270 yuan/ton (50) respectively [3] - Market analysis: The Sino - US trade tariff issue remains unresolved, affecting Sino - US soybean trade; the market focus has shifted to the North American sowing season, and Brazilian soybeans are about to enter the export peak; the current spot supply of soybean meal is tight, but it will gradually ease, and post - holiday downstream replenishment may boost short - term trading volume [3] - Reference view: Soybean meal may run weakly in the short term [3] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, North China and Huanghuai are 2184 yuan/ton and 2404 yuan/ton respectively; the purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2260 - 2270 yuan/ton and 2250 - 2270 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Market analysis: The Sino - US tariff dispute has limited impact on the corn market due to China's decreasing import dependence and import from Brazil; currently, the supply is tight, and the downstream demand is weak [4] - Reference view: The domestic corn market is in the old - new grain gap period, with prices likely to rise, and it is advisable to go long in the short term [4] Group 4: Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78300 - 78860 yuan, up 390 yuan, with a premium of 240 - 280 yuan; the imported copper ore index is - 42.61, down 0.09 [5] - Market analysis: The Fed maintains the interest rate, and there are uncertainties; domestic policies support the market; raw material issues persist, and copper is in a stage of resonance with complex market conditions [6] - Reference view: The monthly K - line of copper prices is balanced, and it is advisable to participate selectively based on the moving average system in the short term [6] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market prices of battery - grade (99.5%) and industrial - grade (99.2%) lithium carbonate are 66200 (-650) yuan/ton and 64500 (-650) yuan/ton respectively, with a stable price difference of 1700 yuan/ton [7] - Market analysis: Cost pressure is increasing, supply is rising (especially from mica and potential increase from salt - lake lithium extraction), and demand is improving but not enough to drive prices up; inventory is increasing [7][8] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to go short on rallies [8] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3160 yuan, the Tangshan operation rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [9] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are improving, the contango structure is weakening, the valuation is moderately low; cost is dynamic, inventory is decreasing, and the market is in a supply - demand strong pattern [9] - Reference view: After the macro - negative factors are digested, it is advisable to go long on the far - month contract at low levels after May [9] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton; the port inventories of imported coking coal and coke are 337.38 million tons and 246.10 million tons respectively [10] - Market analysis: Supply is relatively loose, demand is low, inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [10] - Reference view: Coking coal and coke will oscillate weakly and rebound at low levels, with limited upside [10] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 99.15, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 773 yuan, and the price of Australian 62% Fe powder ore is 761 yuan [11] - Market analysis: There are both bullish and bearish factors in the iron ore market; supply has a slight decline, port inventory is decreasing, and demand is mixed [11] - Reference view: The short - term trend of the iron ore 2505 contract will be oscillatory, and traders should be cautious [11] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects oversupply; the Fed's stance and domestic policies in China have an impact, and the 55 - dollar/barrel level of WTI has technical support [12] - Reference view: WTI will mainly oscillate between 55 - 60 dollars/barrel [12] Group 10: Rubber - Market analysis: The impact of the US "reciprocal tariff" on rubber prices has been mostly priced in; supply is increasing, and demand may be affected by the US auto tariff [12] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operation rate of Shanghai rubber, and there is support around 14,000 yuan/ton for the main contract [12] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4700 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5050 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [13] - Market analysis: The PVC production enterprise operation rate is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing [13] - Reference view: Due to weak demand, the futures price may oscillate at a low level [13] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1413.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [14] - Market analysis: Supply is relatively stable with little production fluctuation, inventory is decreasing, and demand is average with resistance to high - price goods [14] - Reference view: The futures market of soda ash will mainly oscillate widely in the short term [14]

美国总统特朗普的关税公告及贸易伙伴的反应让市场感到震惊。企业在这个财报季节中一直在准备应急 计划并撤回指导，等待进一步的解决方案。市场在模糊的关税谈判中寻找稳定的立足点。与此同时，经 济已开始放缓。4 月底发布的第一季度国内生产总值（GDP）显示美国经济萎缩。调查数据和高频数据 （如集装箱运输）亦指向同一发展方向。关税不仅抑制增长，还可能引发通胀，这为美联储创造了一个 复杂的环境，主席鲍威尔上个月在声明中亦简略地承认了这一点。 智通财经APP获悉，尚渤投资管理投资组合经理 Ali Hassan 表示，市场预期美联储不会有任何行动，而 当局也没有让人失望。此次决议和声明并无新进展，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将联邦基金利率维 持在 4.25% - 4.50% 的区间内。声明平淡且措辞圆滑，并承认了不确定性。唯一值得注意的是，当局强 调了潜在的高失业率与高通胀之间的两难局面，而不仅仅是通胀。此次会议没有安排更新经济预测摘 要，因此，新闻发布会是关键。 关税政策波动中，美联储的反应机制备受争议，包括反应的时间及深度。许多观察者，甚至是美联储理 事沃勒（Christopher Waller）认为关税对通胀有一次性的 ...

金十数据5月8日讯，美联储将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%不变，符合市场预期，连续第三次会议按兵 不动。 美联储继续维持利率不变 ...

智通财经5月7日电，美国抵押贷款银行家协会(MBA)周三公布的数据显示，购房抵押贷款申请指标跃升 11.1%，创下1月以来的最大增幅，再融资抵押贷款申请指数也以类似的速度增长。截至5月2日当周， 30年期抵押贷款的合约利率下降5个基点至6.84%。5年期可调整抵押贷款利率也走高，但仍低于4月中 旬的水平。抵押贷款利率通常追随美国国债收益率走势。美国国债收益率在上周大部分时间下跌，但在 周五反弹，主要是受美国政府公布的劳动力市场表现稳健的数据影响。投资者将密切关注美联储主席杰 罗姆·鲍威尔周三晚些时候的发言，以判断美联储在利率问题上是否继续保持观望立场。尽管消费者担 心美国贸易政策未来一年可能导致通胀加剧和就业市场疲软，但近期数据表明对住房的潜在需求依然存 在。3月新屋销售超出预期，二手房签约量录得一年多来的最大增幅。 美国抵押贷款申请指标攀升 融资成本下降提振需求 ...

| | | 贵金属产业日报 2025-05-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 803.5 | 8.7 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8252 | 17 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 188308 | 60901 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 230354 | -1662 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 104452 | 7343 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 129934 | 5158 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 15648 | 0 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 940981 | -18804 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 796.2 | 3.89 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 8187 | -49 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -7.3 | -2.41 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/千克) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US stock market is "Neutral - Maintain" [4] - The investment rating for the US dollar bond market is "Neutral" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The "rush to import" led to a 0.3% decline in the US GDP in Q1 2025, the first contraction since 2022. However, the trade deficit is expected to narrow in Q2, and imports may boost GDP [1] - The US April non - farm payroll data was robust, with stable unemployment and slowing wage growth. The Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged in May and may cut rates in July [2] - The volatility of US Treasury bonds has slowed, with flat rates in the past two weeks and a slightly narrowed term spread. The US Treasury bond market is expected to remain volatile [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Treasury Benchmark Interest Rates - The yields of 1 - year/2 - year/3 - year/5 - year/10 - year/20 - year/30 - year US Treasury bonds changed by 1/2/0/ - 3/ - 1/ - 1/ - 1bp respectively in the past two weeks. The 10Y and 2Y yields were 4.33% and 3.83% respectively, and the 10Y - 2Y spread narrowed to 50bp [3] 3.2 US Macroeconomy and Liquidity - In Q1 2025, the US real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was - 0.3%, the first contraction since 2022. The main reasons were a sharp increase in imports and a decline in government spending. However, business equipment spending increased by 22.5% [1] - In April, the US non - farm employment increased by 177,000, the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, and the average hourly wage growth slowed [2] - The Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged in May and may cut rates in July due to inflation still above the 2% target and the impact of tariff policies on inflation [2] 3.3 Exchange Rates - No specific analysis content about exchange rates is provided in the text, only related chart descriptions are given [53][59][61] 3.4 Overseas US Dollar Bonds - The US dollar bond market is affected by trade negotiations, Fed interest rate policy expectations, and inflation data, and is expected to remain volatile [3] 3.5 Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took one rating action on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers, with S&P giving Guangdong Energy Group Natural Gas Co., Ltd. an initial rating of BBB+ [89] 3.6 Rating Actions - S&P gave Guangdong Energy Group Natural Gas Co., Ltd. an initial rating of BBB+ on April 22, 2025 [90]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve will hold a two-day monetary policy meeting starting May 6, marking the first meeting after President Trump threatened to dismiss Chairman Jerome Powell [2] - Market expectations indicate a 96.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates, with only a 3.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut [2] - The U.S. labor department reported an increase of 177,000 non-farm jobs in April, exceeding the expected 130,000, which supports the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged [4] Group 2 - Powell highlighted that the U.S. government's tariff increases could complicate the Fed's dual mandate of promoting employment and stabilizing prices [4] - Trump's pressure for a rate cut has intensified, as he claims there is no inflation in the U.S., despite Powell's stance of waiting for clearer economic signals before making policy adjustments [5][6] - Analysts believe that Trump's ongoing pressure may make it more difficult for the Fed to lower rates, as the Fed aims to maintain its independence [5]