据新华社报道，近期中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦举行。在此背景下，特朗普刚对华示好，国 际局势却风云突变。 当地时间7月16日，特朗普在签署"全面遏制芬太尼贩运法案"前，谈及芬太尼问题时称中方一直在该问 题上帮助美国。而此前，特朗普曾借芬太尼问题对中国发起关税威胁，态度可谓180度大转弯。不仅如 此，近段时间美国在芯片出口等问题上对中国松口，恢复处理中国留学生赴美签证、准许美国能源企业 对华出口乙烷、撤销对华芯片设计软件出口许可证要求等。 冯德莱恩（资料图） 特朗普态度转变，主要是因为美国在对华关税战中并未占到便宜。一方面，美国国内企业因关税成本上 升，经营压力增大，不少企业呼吁缓和对华关系。另一方面，美国在国际上的贸易伙伴也对其关税政策 心生不满，美国的国际经济环境有所恶化。特朗普政府意识到，一味强硬难以达到目的，开始寻求与中 国的合作契机，为后续的经贸谈判等创造有利条件。 特朗普宣布自8月1日起对欧盟加征30%的关税，本以为能让欧盟服软。可欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩迅速 回应，宣布欧盟与印尼签订了自由贸易协定。印尼作为金砖组织重要成员国，与欧盟达成自贸协定，无 疑在特朗普的贸易战略布局上撕开一道口子。欧盟 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, precious metals showed a pattern of gold being weak and silver being strong, mainly due to the short - term high - level callback of safe - haven demand. The market has become dull to trade - war and Middle - East geopolitical risks. In terms of monetary attributes, strong employment and inflation in the US rule out the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near term. The Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards rate cuts due to internal disagreements. In terms of commodity attributes, there is still an expected supply - demand gap for silver, and industrial demand is expected to improve. Short - term precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly. In the medium and long term, the increasing risk of economic recession may force the rate - cut logic to develop, and precious metals are expected to remain at a high level in the medium term and show a long - term upward trend [5]. - Gold jewelry consumption is restricted by high prices, but investment demand for gold bars offsets some of the impact. Central banks in emerging markets, including the People's Bank of China, are driving up gold - buying demand through their "de - dollarization" strategies. The World Silver Association expects the global silver supply - demand gap to narrow by 21% in 2025, to 117.6 million ounces (about 3658 tons) [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Risk - aversion Attribute - The trade war has entered a new stage, and there are continuous geopolitical changes in the Middle East, but the market has become dull to these two types of safe - haven factors [5]. - Trump once threatened to fire Powell but later clarified that he would "take no action for the time being", easing market concerns [5]. 2. Monetary Attribute - The Fed's Beige Book shows that US economic activity has increased, but tariffs have brought price pressure, making the outlook pessimistic. US employment and inflation growth are still strong, eliminating the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near term. The Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards rate cuts due to internal disagreements. The market expects the next Fed rate cut to be postponed to September, and the total rate - cut space in 2025 is expected to drop to about 50 basis points. The US 6 - month CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month [2][5]. - A review of the Fed's monetary policy path from 2024 - 2025 shows different stances on rate cuts at different times, including rate cuts of different magnitudes, concerns about inflation and employment, and changes in the expected number of rate cuts [10][11]. 3. Commodity Attribute - Gold jewelry consumption is restricted by high prices, but investment demand for gold bars offsets some of the impact. Central banks in emerging markets are driving up gold - buying demand through their "de - dollarization" strategies [2]. - The World Silver Association expects the global silver supply - demand gap to narrow by 21% in 2025, to 117.6 million ounces (about 3658 tons) due to a 1% decrease in demand and a 2% increase in total supply [2]. 4. Capital Flow - Recently, the net long positions of CFTC managed funds in gold and silver have been slightly reduced. In the domestic market, the net long positions of institutions in Shanghai gold have remained at a high level, while those in Shanghai silver have been slightly reduced. The world's largest gold ETF and silver ETF have ended their long - term downward trends and are slowly increasing their positions [3]. 5. Future Investment Logic Evolution No specific content provided in the report. 6. Weekly Strategy - Short - term: Precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly. - Medium - term: Precious metals are expected to remain at a high level. - Long - term: Precious metals are expected to show an upward trend [5]. 7. Support and Resistance - Support for Shanghai gold futures main contract: 755 - 760; Resistance: 790 - 795. - Support for Shanghai silver futures main contract: 8900 - 8930; Resistance: 9400 - 9430 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] 2. Core Views - Crude oil prices rebounded overnight, but the upward drive from strong real - world factors weakened, and prices may be hard to break out of the volatile pattern in the short term due to trade - war risks in July [2] - The sharp rise in crude oil today drove up fuel - related futures, but the demand for fuel oil lacks a driver, and the cracking spread of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil continued to decline [3] - The supply increase resilience of asphalt remains to be observed, demand is weak but has recovery expectations, and low inventory supports prices, leading to an upward trend in prices [4] - The LPG market is in a weak pattern in summer, with supply and demand both weak in China recently, and the futures price fluctuating weakly [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - SC09 contract rose 2.57% intraday. Supply concerns increased due to production reduction in Kurdistan and EU sanctions on Russia, but the upward drive from strong real - world factors weakened, and short - term prices may stay in a volatile pattern [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The sharp rise in crude oil drove up fuel - related futures today, with similar increases in FU and LU, and the high - low sulfur price difference stopped falling. The supply of high - sulfur heavy resources is expected to increase, demand lacks a driver, and the cracking spread of both FU and LU continued to decline [3] Asphalt - Refinery production in August is expected to decline significantly compared to July. Social inventory increased slightly, factory inventory decreased significantly, and overall, supply increase resilience needs further observation, demand is weak but has recovery expectations, and low inventory supports prices [4] LPG - Middle - East production pressure persists, overseas prices fluctuate weakly, import costs decline, but PDH gross profit remains stable. Domestic supply and demand are both weak, and the futures price fluctuates weakly [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the strategic importance of rare earth elements, which are crucial for modern technology, and highlights the current dominance of China in the global supply chain [1][3] - It outlines the efforts by the Trump administration to reduce U.S. dependence on Chinese rare earth supplies through various policies and partnerships [5][10] Group 1: U.S. Policy and Strategy - The Trump administration initiated measures to increase domestic rare earth production, including signing an executive order to expedite mining project approvals and providing financial support [5][6] - A significant partnership was formed with MP Materials, the only rare earth producer in the U.S., involving a $400 million investment and a commitment to stabilize prices for key rare earth oxides [6][7] - The U.S. aims to establish a parallel supply chain to bypass Chinese dominance, with plans for increased production and processing capabilities domestically and with allies [9][10] Group 2: International Collaboration - The U.S. is actively seeking partnerships with countries like Australia and Canada to share processing costs and develop a more resilient supply chain [9] - Agreements are being negotiated with countries like Ukraine and Greenland to tap into their rare earth resources, further diversifying supply sources [9][10] - The collaboration with allies is intended to mitigate risks associated with China's monopoly on rare earth elements [9] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The U.S. rare earth supply chain is currently facing high costs compared to China, which poses a significant challenge to achieving self-sufficiency [11] - Despite the efforts, the production capacity of U.S. companies like MP Materials remains significantly lower than China's, highlighting the scale of the challenge [11] - The article notes that while the U.S. is making strides, the long-term sustainability of these initiatives depends on continued government support and international cooperation [11]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.7.18」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 本周集运指数（欧线）期货价格集体上行，主力合约EC2508收涨16.44%，远月合约收涨7-16%不等。最新SCFIS欧 线结算运价指数为2421.94，较上周回升163.9点，环比上行7.3%，持续回升的现货指标说明头部船司此前的宣涨行为 大概率能成功落地，市场对旺季运价担忧减弱，叠加主力合约换月，基差修复逻辑带动期价上涨。6月美国标普全球 综合PMI指数从5月的53小幅回落至52.8。价格压力明显加剧，主要驱动因素包括关税政策的影响，以及融资成本、薪 资压力和燃料价格的上涨。美国6月零售销售数据呈现超预期反弹，环比增速录得0.6%，显著高于市场预期的0.1%， 且较前值-0.9%明显改善。尽管面临贸易政策不确定性，美国消费端仍展现出较强的韧性，部分或于特朗普暂缓关税 条例有关，但考虑到近期关税政策有所加码，后续通胀仍存在上行风险，或对未来数月的零售数据构成一定影响。此 外，欧元区面临美欧关税博弈升级的复 ...

【文/观察者网 王一】美欧关税谈判陷入僵局，为了不在8月1日被美国总统特朗普强征关税，欧盟打算 在其重点产品汽车上退一步。据英国《金融时报》7月17日报道，针对汽车关税减免，欧盟打算放弃德 国汽车制造商提出的复杂的"出口抵消进口机制"设想，转而向美国提出一个更为简单的"关税对关税"方 案。 根据欧盟最新提案，如果特朗普政府将对欧盟汽车的关税降至20%以下，欧盟将取消对美国汽车出口的 10%关税。 《金融时报》指出，这是欧盟为与美国特朗普政府尽快达成协议、解决最大绊脚石，稳定双方经贸关系 所作出的最新努力。 汽车行业是德国经济的支柱，特朗普关税将对其造成沉重打击。在德国汽车制造商的施压下，德国总理 默茨推动欧盟拿上述方案与特朗普团队谈判。但这在欧盟内部引发了一些不满声，法国、意大利等其他 成员国认为这一机制对他们国家的车企不利，因为他们在美国没有设立工厂。 新车停放在德国的一个物流中心里等待出口。视频截图 宝马集团董事长齐普策称，"在我们的讨论中，我认为我们走了很长一段路来明确表示：如果你危及那 个（出口）模式......美国会输"。 沃尔沃汽车首席执行官（CEO）哈坎·萨缪尔森（Hkan Samuelsson ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are facing a situation of weak supply and demand, with poor inventory reduction, and are under oscillatory pressure [9]. - For nickel, macro - factors include the US retail sales growth and potential EU - US trade war. Fundamentally, supply costs are rising, and some non - integrated smelters are reducing production due to profit losses. Demand from the stainless - steel and battery sectors is weak, and inventories are rising [9]. - For stainless steel, although the cost of raw materials is decreasing, steel mills are increasing production cuts due to losses. Demand is weak in the traditional off - season, and inventory reduction is not ideal [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Nickel**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated and adjusted, with a weekly decline of 0.73% and an amplitude of 2.38%. The closing price was 120,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or short lightly on rallies [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: This week, stainless steel oscillated and adjusted, with a weekly increase of 0.12% and an amplitude of 1.42%. The closing price was 12,725 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price**: As of July 18, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) was 900 yuan/nickel, unchanged from last week. The closing price of Shanghai nickel was 120,500 yuan/ton, down 890 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 12,725 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from last week [15]. - **Basis**: As of July 18, the electrolytic nickel spot price was 121,500 yuan/ton, with a basis of 1,000 yuan/ton; the stainless - steel basis was 600 yuan/ton [19]. - **Price Ratio**: As of July 18, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel was 9.47, down 0.08 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to nickel was 2.2 yuan/ton, up 0.02 from last week [23]. - **Net Long Positions**: As of July 18, the net long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel decreased by 6,436 lots compared to July 14, and the net long positions of the top 20 in stainless steel increased by 5,070 lots [31]. 3.3. Industry Chain - **Supply Side** - **Nickel Ore**: As of July 11, the nickel ore inventory at major ports was 896,490 wet tons, up 2.83% from last week [34]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: In April 2025, the electrolytic nickel output was 36,450 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.46%. In May 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 17,687.576 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.65%, and the cumulative import from January to May was 78,738.983 tons, a year - on - year increase of 121.39% [39]. - **Inventory**: As of July 18, the LME nickel inventory was 21,560 tons, up 1,118 tons from last week; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 25,277 tons, up 230 tons from last week [41][44]. - **Demand Side** - **Stainless Steel Production**: In June 2025, the total output of stainless crude steel was 329.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95%. Among them, the output of 400 - series was 558,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.48%; the output of 300 - series was 1.744 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.28%; the output of 200 - series was 989,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.35% [48]. - **Stainless Steel Trade**: In May 2025, the stainless - steel import volume was 122,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,000 tons; the export volume was 360,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,100 tons [48]. - **Regional Inventory**: As of July 18, the stainless - steel inventory in Foshan was 320,410 tons, down 20,449 tons from last week; the inventory in Wuxi was 595,917 tons, up 6,112 tons from last week [52]. - **Stainless Steel Profit**: As of July 18, the stainless - steel production profit was - 8 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton from last week [56]. - **Downstream Industries** - **Real Estate**: From January to June 2025, the new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the housing completion area was 225.6661 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8% [60]. - **Home Appliances**: In June 2025, the air - conditioner output was 28.3831 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.18%; the refrigerator output was 9.0474 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.78%; the washing - machine output was 9.5079 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16.57%; the freezer output was 2.4139 million units, a year - on - year increase of 18.82% [60]. - **Automotive**: In June 2025, the output of new - energy vehicles was 2.794 million, a year - on - year increase of 28.7%; the sales volume was 2.904 million, a year - on - year increase of 35.2% [64]. - **Machinery**: In June 2025, the excavator output was 26,810 units, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%; the output of large and medium - sized tractors was 21,662 units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.55%; the output of small tractors was 10,000 units, unchanged year - on - year [64].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the Shanghai tin market has experienced a wide - range adjustment. Macro factors show that the US retail sales in June increased more than expected, while the EU is preparing for a potential escalation of the trade war. On the fundamental side, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, actual ore production will not start until the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages. The smelting end faces raw material shortages and cost pressures, and the demand end is in a seasonal off - peak period. The tin price has been fluctuating widely recently, and downstream procurement is mainly at low prices. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range of 260,000 - 268,000 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin rebounded after a decline this week, with a weekly increase of 0.23% and an amplitude of 3.17%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 264,540 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomically, the US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. The EU is drafting a tariff list for US services. Fundamentally, the actual ore output in Myanmar will start in the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine is resuming production. The smelting end has problems such as raw material shortages and cost pressures. The demand end is in an off - peak season. The tin price has been fluctuating widely, and downstream procurement is cautious. The domestic inventory has decreased slightly, while the LME de - stocking has slowed down. Technically, there is a divergence between long and short positions at a low position, and attention should be paid to the pressure of MA10 [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range of 260,000 - 268,000 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of July 18, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 264,540 yuan/ton, up 810 yuan/ton or 0.31% from July 11. As of July 17, 2025, the closing price of LME tin was 33,070 US dollars/ton, down 380 US dollars/ton or 1.14% from July 11. The spot premium remained stable [8][9]. - **Ratio Change**: As of July 18, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.19, the same as on July 11. As of July 17, 2025, the Shanghai - London tin ratio was 7.92, down 0.06 from July 10 [16]. - **Position Change**: As of July 18, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 126 lots, a decrease of 1186 lots from July 14. The trading volume of Shanghai tin was 49,232 lots, a decrease of 596 lots or 1.2% from July 11 [17][18]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply Side** - **Ore Import and Production**: In May 2025, the monthly import of tin ore and concentrates was 13,448.80 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.4% and a year - on - year increase of 60.66%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 50,220.48 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.41%. In April 2025, the refined tin output was - 0.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 5.98 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [23][24]. - **Processing Fee**: On July 18, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, the same as on July 11. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, also the same as on July 11. The average price of 40% tin concentrate decreased by 1,200 yuan/ton or 0.47%, and the average price of 60% tin concentrate decreased by 1,200 yuan/ton or 0.46% [27]. - **Import Window**: As of July 18, 2025, the tin import profit and loss was - 14.16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,887.01 yuan/ton from July 11. In May 2025, the refined tin import volume was 2,076.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.07% and a year - on - year increase of 226.14%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 10,869.42 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.52%. In May 2025, the refined tin export volume was 1,769.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.12% and a year - on - year increase of 18.01%. From January to May, the cumulative export was 9,739.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.71% [31][32]. - **Inventory**: As of July 18, 2025, the LME tin total inventory was 1,935 tons, a decrease of 35 tons or 1.78% from July 11. The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory was 7,148 tons, an increase of 51 tons or 0.72% from last week. The tin inventory for futures was 6,817 tons, an increase of 186 tons or 2.81% from July 11 [37]. - **Demand Side** - **Semiconductor Index**: On July 17, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 5,737.64, an increase of 29.37 or 0.51% from July 10. From January to June 2025, the integrated circuit output was 23,946,961,100 pieces, an increase of 3,236,412,000 pieces or 15.63% compared with the same period last year [42][43]. - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: As of May 2025, the tin - plated sheet output was 100,000 tons, the same as in April. The export volume was 173,578.75 tons, an increase of 27,066.23 tons or 18.47% from April [48].

Group 1: Conflict Trigger - The conflict was triggered by Canada's unilateral imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods, particularly a 100% tariff on electric vehicles and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, effective October 1, 2024 [2][4] - Canada's actions were framed as a response to similar measures by the US and EU, but lacked substantial evidence and appeared hasty compared to the thorough investigations conducted by the US and EU [4][6] Group 2: China's Response - In response to Canada's tariffs, China initiated an anti-discrimination investigation against Canada on September 26, 2024, marking a significant move in international trade disputes [8][10] - China also launched an anti-dumping investigation on Canadian canola on September 9, 2024, targeting a key export commodity worth over 3 billion Canadian dollars in 2023 [10][12] Group 3: Historical Context - Diplomatic relations between China and Canada began in 1970, with a mutually beneficial trade relationship that peaked in the 2010s, where bilateral trade reached hundreds of billions of Canadian dollars [14][16] - The relationship soured significantly after the 2018 Meng Wanzhou incident, leading to a series of retaliatory measures and a decline in trust between the two nations [16] Group 4: International Implications - The dispute has broader international implications, with China's anti-discrimination investigation potentially setting a precedent for future trade conflicts, while Canada faces criticism for its unfounded tariff measures [17][19] - Canada has expressed strong condemnation of China's actions and plans to support affected industries, but the scale of assistance is limited, and there are calls for government compromise from the agricultural community [20] Group 5: Conclusion - The trade war illustrates the complexities of global trade dynamics and the lack of true winners, as both countries face economic repercussions and strained relations [21]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Precious Metals Data Daily [4] - Date: July 18, 2025 [5] - Research Institution: ITC Guomao Futures [3] - Analyst: Baishuna from the Macroeconomic and Financial Research Center [5] Group 2: Market Data Price and Price Changes - On July 17, 2025, London Gold Spot was at $3334.99/ounce (-0.1% from the previous day), London Silver Spot at $37.88/ounce (0.0% change), COMEX Gold at $3340.80/ounce (-0.2% change), and COMEX Silver at $38.11/ounce (-0.2% change). Shanghai gold and silver futures and spot also had corresponding price changes [5]. - The price differences and ratios between different gold and silver varieties also changed. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was -2.24 yuan/gram on July 17, with a 14.3% change from the previous day [5]. Positions and Inventories - As of July 16, 2025, the non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver had different degrees of change compared to the previous day. Gold ETF - SPDR was at 950.79 tons (0.33% change), and Silver ETF - SLV was at 14819.28626 tons (-0.25% change) [5]. - On July 17, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 28872.00 kg (0.00% change from the previous day), and SHFE silver inventory was 1217085.00 kg (0.35% change). COMEX gold and silver inventories also had slight increases [5]. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Other Market Indicators - On July 17, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.15 (-0.09% change). The US dollar index was 98.29 (-0.35% change), and US Treasury yields and other indicators also changed [5]. Group 3: Core Views Short - term Logic - The decrease in the number of initial jobless claims in the US and strong retail sales data weakened the short - term downward risk of the US economy, which put pressure on precious metal prices. However, due to the uncertainty of tariffs and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, precious metal prices were also supported. It is expected that gold prices will continue to fluctuate. For silver, although the market risk preference is still high, the silver price may gradually strengthen, and the gold - silver ratio may start to rise [5]. Medium - and Long - term Logic - Against the background of the trade war, the Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates this year. With global geopolitical uncertainties, the intensification of great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, the long - term upward trend of gold has not changed. It is recommended to continue to allocate long positions on dips [5]. Group 4: Market News - US President Trump announced on the 12th that starting from August 1, a 30% tariff would be imposed on EU imported goods. The EU Commission stated on the 14th that if the US - EU trade negotiation fails, the EU is ready to impose additional counter - tariffs on US imported products worth about $84 billion and has formulated a counter - measure list [5]. - Trump said he did not plan to remove Fed Chairman Powell from office. Fed official Williams said that the initial impact of tariffs on commodity prices was starting to be seen, and the impact on inflation was expected to intensify in the coming months [5]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 12 was 221,000, a new low since the week ending April 12, 2025. The number of continued jobless claims for the week ending July 5 was 1.956 million, lower than expected [5].