"美联储的独立性对这个国家的长期通胀率而言再重要不过了，"古尔斯比周三接受NPR采访时表示。 "在任何中央银行不独立的地方，通胀都会卷土重来，"古尔斯比在被问及特朗普政府对美联储主席施压 时表示。"我们过去五年一直在努力压低通胀，这并不容易。如果你攻击美联储的独立性，只会让问题 更加严重。" 在美国司法部因鲍威尔去年在国会作证时的相关言论向美联储发出传票后，美联储官员和全球各地的经 济政策制定者本周纷纷声援美国央行。 鲍威尔周日发表声明谴责这一行动，并表示"刑事指控威胁实则源于美联储基于对公众利益的最佳评估 来设定利率，而非迎合总统的个人偏好"。 芝加哥联储行长古尔斯比为央行独立性辩护，认为这对实现低且稳定的价格是必要的。 在美国司法部因鲍威尔去年在国会作证时的相关言论向美联储发出传票后，美联储官员和全球各地的经 济政策制定者本周纷纷声援美国央行。 鲍威尔周日发表声明谴责这一行动，并表示"刑事指控威胁实则源于美联储基于对公众利益的最佳评估 来设定利率，而非迎合总统的个人偏好"。 明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长卡什卡利表示认同。他表示："过去一年来的局势升级实际上是关乎货 币政策。" 古尔斯比在NPR节目中称赞了 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. inflation rate for December 2025 was reported at 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, while core CPI rose by 2.6%, slightly below expectations [5][6] - Energy inflation has significantly decreased, with December energy prices rising by only 2.3% year-on-year, down 1.9 percentage points from November [7] - The overall inflation level is expected to continue declining due to high base effects in early 2025, although potential rebound pressures may arise from fiscal policies and economic support measures [8][9] Group 2: Real Estate and Construction Sector - Poly Developments (600048.SH) has adjusted its headquarters structure to enhance management efficiency, maintaining its leading position in the industry [26][30] - The company reported a total sales amount of 121.6 billion yuan in December 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%, but it remains the top seller in the industry [28] - The company’s land acquisition in major cities accounted for over 85% of its total, with a total land acquisition amount of 771.3 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 13.0% year-on-year increase [29] Group 3: Media and Entertainment Sector - Xindong Company (02400.HK) saw its game "Heart Town" achieve over 500 million downloads shortly after its international launch, indicating strong performance and potential for future revenue growth [32][33] - The company plans to leverage partnerships with well-known IPs to enhance user engagement and revenue streams, particularly during peak seasons [32][34] Group 4: Retail Sector - Chao Hong Ji (002345.SZ) anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a year-on-year growth of 125% to 175%, driven by brand enhancement and market expansion [36][37] - The company has successfully expanded its store network, reaching a total of 1,668 stores by the end of 2025, with a notable increase in new store openings [37]

美联储下次利率决议将于2026年1月27日—28日召开，虽然1月大概率不会降息，但交易员们加大了押注，认为美联储可能不会等到美联储主席鲍威尔5月任 期结束后再降息，4月降息的概率接近50%。 据CME"美联储观察"，美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为2.8%，维持利率不变的概率为97.2%。到3月累计降息25个基点的概率为26.8%，维持利率不变的概 率为72.5%，累计降息50个基点的概率为0.7%。 在CPI数据公布后，圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆也表示，通胀风险正在缓和，他预计价格将在今年晚些时候开始向美联储的目标回归。穆萨莱姆指出，经过 去年的降息，美联储的货币政策已处于应对价格稳定或就业风险的良好位置。他表示，当前利率已接近中性水平，即既不刺激也不抑制经济，并重申在通胀 仍然偏高的情况下，没有进一步降息的必要。 随着美国2025年12月核心消费者价格涨幅低于预期，美联储今年预期降息时点有所提前。当地时间13日，美国劳工部发布的数据显示，2025年12月美国消费 者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%；剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，去年12月核心消费者价格指数同比上涨2.6%。 数据公布后，美国短期利率期货 ...

Group 1: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley's chief economic strategist noted that inflation has not re-accelerated but remains above target, indicating insufficient grounds for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in January [1] - JPMorgan's CEO highlighted the resilience of the U.S. economy despite a slowdown in the labor market, with consumer spending remaining strong and businesses generally healthy [1] - Credit Agricole's forex strategist suggested that the market has already priced in negative factors related to interest rate cuts, indicating that the dollar may be undervalued [1] Group 2: Currency and Monetary Policy - Barclays reported that the Japanese yen may face downward pressure due to rising concerns over Japan's fiscal situation, potentially leading to further monetary easing [2] - Mitsubishi UFJ noted that a significant depreciation of the yen could raise concerns among policymakers, with speculation about government intervention to support the currency [3] - Julius Baer indicated that despite narrowing interest rate differentials, the yen is expected to remain weak due to concerns over Japan's fiscal policies and high public debt levels [4] Group 3: UK Economic Outlook - ING analysts warned that the British pound's recent gains against the euro may not be sustainable, as the Bank of England could lower interest rates sooner than expected [5][6] Group 4: U.S. Inflation and Federal Reserve Predictions - CICC reported that the U.S. December CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, while core CPI was slightly below expectations [7] - CITIC Securities projected that the Federal Reserve would pause interest rate cuts in January and implement two cuts of 25 basis points each later in the year [8] Group 5: Strategic Metals and Investment Opportunities - CITIC Jiantou emphasized the bullish outlook for strategic metals due to rising resource nationalism and significant changes in demand dynamics [9] - Galaxy Securities highlighted the potential for a super copper cycle driven by the intersection of AI advancements and global order restructuring, suggesting significant upside for copper prices [11][12] Group 6: Brain-Computer Interface Industry - Galaxy Securities reported that brain-computer interface technology is moving towards industrial production, with significant policy support in China facilitating its commercialization [13]

Core Viewpoint - The actions of the Trump administration towards the Federal Reserve over the past year are fundamentally about monetary policy, as stated by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, who defended Fed Chair Powell amid a criminal investigation led by the Justice Department [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Kashkari emphasized the importance of explaining to voters why the independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for the health and vitality of the U.S. economy [1] - The Supreme Court has signaled a different view of the Federal Reserve compared to other independent agencies, potentially granting the Trump administration more power over the Fed [2] - If the Supreme Court sides with Trump, it could undermine the foundational independence of the Federal Reserve, allowing future presidents to dismiss Fed officials at will [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Funds rate currently hovers between 3.5% and 3.75%, a level that Kashkari believes positions the Fed well [2] - There is significant division among decision-makers regarding recent interest rate decisions, with some officials opposing a rate cut due to persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target [4] - Kashkari expressed caution regarding further rate cuts, citing a solid economic foundation despite some labor market cracks and ongoing high inflation [4][5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Kashkari warned that inflation could remain above target levels for the next two to three years, potentially leading to prolonged high inflation [5] - A significant rise in unemployment, particularly if accompanied by easing inflation, could prompt a change in Kashkari's strategy [5] - The current economic resilience suggests that tight monetary policy may not be as impactful as perceived, as there have not been widespread layoffs despite reduced hiring [4]

【美国PPI数据速评】美国11月生产者价格指数（PPI）环比小幅走高，主要受能源成本上涨推动，尽管 服务类价格基本持平。与去年同期相比，整体生产者价格指数走高3%。剔除食品和能源后，PPI较上月 持平，较2024年11月上涨3%。预计美联储在连续三次降息后将暂时维持利率不变，等待通胀进一步降 温并评估就业市场动态。 ...

明尼阿波利斯联储行长Neel T. Kashkari在接受采访时明确声援美联储主席鲍威尔，直指特朗普政府近期 针对美联储的行动本质上是"关于货币政策"的干预。 根据《联邦储备法》，总统只有在官员存在称职问题或失职等"正当理由"时才能将其解职。Kashkari 警 告称，如果最高法院做出有利于特朗普的裁决，使总统能够随意撤换官员，将破坏美联储独立性的基本 要素。他同时注意到，最高法院过去一年的表态似乎显示其倾向于将美联储与其他独立机构区分对待。 Kashkari 在接受采访时指出，特朗普政府过去一年针对美联储的攻击"实际上是关于货币政策的"。他认 为鲍威尔对此次刑事调查性质的定性是准确的，即政府正将行政手段作为迫使央行降低借贷成本的筹 码。 尽管行政压力加剧，但 Kashkari 认为这正是一个向公众阐明美联储独立性重要性的契机。他提到，目 前市场表现相对冷静，部分原因在于跨党派议员已表态支持鲍威尔，这传递了美联储应免受政治干扰制 定利率的信号。 1月维持利率不变，谨慎对待未来降息 在货币政策层面，Kashkari 明确反对在1月的议息会议上降息。去年经过三次降息后，目前基准利率维 持在3.5%至3.75%之间 ...

| 地区 | 仓库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上海 | 中储吴淞 | 82846 | -1533 | | | 外运华东虹桥 | 59793 | 0 | | | 中工美供应链 | 441584 | 163 | | | 合计 | 584223 | -1370 | | 广东 | 深圳威豹 | 44473 | 0 | | 总计 | | 628696 | -1370 | 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货1月14日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计628696千克，今日仓单较上一 日减少1370千克。 沪银主力维持震荡格局，今日白银期货开盘报21431元/千克，最高触及22995元/千克，最低触及21358 元/千克，截止收盘报22763元/千克，上涨8.03%。 美国劳工部周二表示，美国12月CPI同比上涨2.7%，与去年11月持平。剔除波动较大的食品和能源成本 后，核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，也与去年11月持平。二者均低于市场预期。经季节性调整后的12月CPI环 比上涨0.3%，符合经济学家的预期；12月核心CPI环比上涨0.2%。经济学家此前预计该数据将上涨 0.3%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold and silver prices reached new all - time highs today due to factors such as the US inflation data being in line with expectations, the escalation of the US - Iran situation driving up safe - haven demand, and the planned launch of a 100 - ounce silver futures contract by CME [3][7]. - The platinum and palladium markets also showed certain trends. The slowdown of US core inflation was beneficial for precious metals pricing, and geopolitical events and policy uncertainties affected the market [15]. - From the 2026 supply - demand balance sheet, platinum is in a tight - balance pattern and has stronger upward momentum compared to palladium, which is shifting from a supply - demand deficit to a surplus [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Gold and Silver Market - London gold hit a new all - time high of $4639.723 per ounce, and London silver reached $91.551 per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract reached a new high of 1041 yuan per gram and closed at 1040.62 yuan, up 1.07%, with the weighted daily position increasing by 11996 lots to 348,500 lots. The Shanghai silver main contract reached a new high of 22,995 yuan per kilogram and closed at 22,763 yuan, up 8.03%, with the weighted daily position increasing by 18213 lots to 736,500 lots [3]. 3.1.2 Platinum and Palladium Market - London platinum and palladium both rose and then fell. As of 3 pm, London platinum was trading at $2390.90, and London palladium was at $1860.56. The platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange opened higher and fluctuated. The platinum main contract PT2606 closed up 3.67% at 630.65 yuan per gram, with the weighted daily position increasing by 419 lots to 38859 lots, and the settled funds reaching 8.823 billion yuan (an inflow of 1.847 billion yuan). The palladium main contract PD2606 closed up 1.60% at 495.50 yuan per gram, with the weighted daily position decreasing by 182 lots to 15022 lots, and the settled funds reaching 2.682 billion yuan (an inflow of 476 million yuan) [11][13]. 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 US Macroeconomic Data - The US December un - adjusted CPI annual rate was 2.7%, in line with expectations; the un - adjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.6%, lower than the expected 2.7%; the seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate was 0.3%, in line with expectations; and the seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% [4]. 3.2.2 Geopolitical Situation - The EU is discussing additional sanctions against Iran. Trump cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials, and the US National Security Team will formulate a strategy against Iran [4]. 3.2.3 Fed Views - Fed's Musalem said there are few reasons for further policy easing in the short term and still believes inflation risks will be more persistent than expected [4]. 3.2.4 Fed Observation - The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January is 2.8%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 97.2%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 26.8%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 72.5%. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in April has risen slightly from 38% to 42% [4]. 3.2.5 Other Information - On the 13th, CME announced plans to launch a 100 - ounce silver futures contract on February 9, 2026, pending regulatory approval [6]. 3.3 Logic Analysis 3.3.1 Gold and Silver - US inflation data was in line with expectations, and the US - Iran situation and previous geopolitical events increased the safe - haven demand. The planned launch of a mini - silver contract by CME may bring more liquidity to the market, driving up gold and silver prices. The silver market shows high - level and high - volatility characteristics. Short - term attention should be paid to the US court's ruling on tariff policies [7]. 3.3.2 Platinum and Palladium - The slowdown of core inflation in the US is beneficial for precious metals pricing. Geopolitical events and policy uncertainties such as the "232 investigation" and "double - anti" investigations affect the market. From the supply - demand balance sheet, platinum has stronger upward momentum [15][16][18]. 3.4 Trading Strategies 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - Unilateral: Hold long positions in Shanghai gold based on the previous all - time high at the end of December, and hold long positions in Shanghai silver based on the support near the previous all - time high on the 12th of this month. Arbitrage and options: Wait and see [8][9][10]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - Unilateral: Generally, it is recommended to go long on platinum on dips. For palladium, it is recommended to go long cautiously on dips before the "232 investigation" results are announced, but pay attention to risks. Arbitrage and options: Wait and see [19][20][21]. 3.5 Data Reference - Multiple charts show the relationships between the US dollar index, real yields, and precious metal prices, as well as the relationships between domestic and foreign futures prices, futures - spot prices, and other data for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium [24][31][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Platinum: ★☆☆, implying a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Palladium: ★☆★, showing a relatively stronger bullish bias [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall precious metals market remains prone to rising and difficult to fall. Gold and silver continue their breakthrough trends, while the volatility of platinum and palladium has decreased, with the potential to challenge previous highs [1] - The 12 - month unadjusted CPI annual rate in the US remained flat at 2.7% in December, in line with expectations, and the core CPI was 2.6%, slightly lower than expected. Trump criticized Powell again, calling for significant interest rate cuts [1] - The situation in Iran is highly tense. Trump has cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials. The EU is discussing additional sanctions against Iran, and Vance is scheduled to meet with the national security team this morning to formulate a strategy against Iran [1][2] - The "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos said that the December CPI is unlikely to change the Fed's current wait - and - see attitude. To resume interest rate cuts, Fed officials may need to see new evidence of deteriorating labor market conditions or weakening price pressures [2] - In the four weeks ending December 20, 2025, private - sector employers added an average of 11,750 jobs per week according to the ADP weekly employment report [2] 3. Summaries by Related Content Macroeconomic Data - US December unadjusted CPI annual rate remained flat at 2.7%, in line with expectations; core CPI was 2.6%, slightly lower than expected [1] - In the four weeks ending December 20, 2025, private - sector employers added an average of 11,750 jobs per week [2] Fed's Attitude - The 12 - month CPI is unlikely to change the Fed's current wait - and - see attitude. To resume interest rate cuts, Fed officials may need to see new evidence of deteriorating labor market conditions or weakening price pressures, which may require at least a few more months of inflation data [2] Geopolitical Situation - The situation in Iran is highly tense. Trump has cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials. The EU is discussing additional sanctions against Iran, and Vance is scheduled to meet with the national security team this morning to formulate a strategy against Iran [1][2] Precious Metals Market - Precious metals are generally prone to rising and difficult to fall. Gold and silver continue their breakthrough trends, while the volatility of platinum and palladium has decreased, with the potential to challenge previous highs. Attention is focused on US PPI and retail sales data tonight [1]