Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, steel, energy, and agricultural products. It provides insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements, and offers corresponding investment strategies for each market [5][8][10]. Summary by Category Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most bond futures closed down, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts falling, and the 2 - year contract rising. The central bank conducted 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 444.6 billion yuan [5]. - **Policy and Economy**: The State Council's executive meeting focused on strengthening domestic circulation, and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5][6]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is expected that there will be no trend - following market, and caution is advised [7]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures falling, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures rising [8]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US PPI data in June was lower than expected [10]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. Steel (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ribbed bar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The spot prices of steel products were reported at certain ranges [12]. - **Supply - Demand**: The important meeting at the beginning of the month led to expectations of supply contraction, but the real - estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress prices. The market is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited [12]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [12][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The spot prices of iron ore were reported [14]. - **Supply - Demand**: Policy expectations boosted prices, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The price valuation is relatively high, and the short - term trend may turn to shock consolidation [14]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can look for low - buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [14][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: The meeting at the beginning of the month led to supply contraction expectations, but the actual supply is increasing. The demand for coke is weak, but cost support exists [16]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for medium - term short - selling opportunities, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [16][17]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The spot prices of ferroalloys were reported [18]. - **Supply - Demand**: The demand for ferroalloys has peaked in the short term, and the supply is still high. The price is under pressure, but the cost support is strengthening [18]. - **Investment Strategy**: If the spot losses continue to expand, investors can consider low - value call options [18][19]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened lower and fluctuated, supported by the 10 - day moving average [20]. - **Supply - Demand**: The decrease in US active rigs and summer oil demand support prices, but tariff frictions and sanctions on Russia restrict price increases [21]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main crude oil contract [22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward after a continuous decline [23]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of fuel oil is sufficient, the spot discount has widened, and trade frictions are negative for prices [24]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main fuel oil contract [25]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [26]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material cost has decreased, and the supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [26]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The Shanghai spot price remained stable [28]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the cost support has weakened, and the demand is mixed. The inventory has decreased slightly [28]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market may be in a strong - side shock, and consider medium - term long - buying opportunities [28][29]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The spot price decreased, and the basis remained stable [30]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is excessive, the demand is weak, and the export is affected. The cost has decreased, and the profit has improved [30]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is in the bottom - shock stage [30][33]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, urea futures declined slightly. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [34]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is limited, and the inventory is higher than expected [34]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term market is in shock, and a medium - term bullish view is recommended [34][35]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 contract fluctuated and adjusted. The PXN and PX - MX spreads were reported [36]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand balance is tight in the short term, but the cost support from crude oil is insufficient [36]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to crude oil price changes, and control risks [36]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 contract declined. The spot price and basis rate were reported [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the demand has weakened, and the cost support from crude oil is insufficient. The processing fee is at a low level, and future production cuts may increase [37]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, look for opportunities to expand the processing fee at low levels, and control risks [37]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply, inventory, and demand data were reported [38]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply pressure has been relieved, the inventory is at a low level, and there is support below [38]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2509 contract declined. The supply, demand, and cost data were reported [39]. - **Supply - Demand**: The short - term fundamental drive is insufficient, some factories are reducing production, and the processing fee is gradually recovering [39]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - fiber may fluctuate with the cost. Be cautious about the processing - difference recovery space, pay attention to cost changes and production - cut efforts, and control risks [39]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2509 contract declined. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [40]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material price support is insufficient, the supply has decreased due to more maintenance, and the demand is improving [40]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to raw material price changes [40]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash declined. The production and inventory data were reported [41]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is general, and the long - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to improve. The market hopes for macro - news support [41]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in a weak - stable shock [41]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass declined. The production and market situation data were reported [42][43]. - **Supply - Demand**: The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market sentiment is weak. The price may rebound in the short term due to cost support [43]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price may rebound in the short term [43]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda declined. The production, inventory, and profit data were reported [44]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the market is affected by alumina price and supply. The overall support is limited [44][46]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term support is available, but the overall support is limited [44][46]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of pulp rose slightly. The supply, demand, and price data were reported [47][48]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is expanding, the demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The market sentiment has improved [50]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand pattern has not changed, the supply is strong, the consumption has improved, but the inventory is high. The price is difficult to reverse without large - scale capacity reduction [51]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors should not chase the high price [51]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly, supported by the 60 - day moving average. The spot price was reported [52]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US tariff on copper has been implemented, which has led to the return of refined copper and depressed the price. The price is expected to stabilize [52]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term long - buying for the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated and declined. The supply and demand data were reported [53]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is tight, the consumption is good, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be strong - side shock [53][54]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to be strong - side shock [54]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The supply and demand data were reported [55]. - **Supply - Demand**: The consumption expectation is good, but the actual consumption is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The spot prices were reported [56]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US soybean good - rate has increased, the domestic soybean arrival is high, the oil - mill profit is low, and the demand is mixed [56]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal at low levels; consider call options for soybean oil after the price decline [56][57]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose, following the trend of soybean oil futures. The export and inventory data were reported [58]. - **Supply - Demand**: The export has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the domestic inventory is at a medium - high level [58]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed declined. The import and inventory data were reported [60]. - **Supply - Demand**: The import has decreased, and the inventory is at a high level [60]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for the ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal [60][61]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rebounded. The US and domestic supply - demand data were reported [62][63]. - **Supply - Demand**: The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, the domestic industry is in the off - season, and the downstream inventory is increasing [63]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [63][65]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The Brazilian and Indian production and inventory data were reported [66]. - **Supply - Demand**: The Brazilian production increase expectation has decreased, and the domestic supply - demand contradiction is not sharp [66]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in the range - shock stage, and it is advisable to wait and see [66][67]. Apple - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures rose slightly. The production and inventory data were reported [68][69]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production reduction expectation has been falsified, and the production is expected to increase slightly [68][69]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [68][70]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs declined. The regional price trends and supply - demand data were reported [71]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment [71][73]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold previous short positions and pay attention to the weight - reduction in the south [71][74]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas rose. The production and inventory data were reported [75]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price may be under pressure in the short term [75][76]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider the 9 - 10 reverse spread [75][76]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures declined. The spot prices and inventory data were reported [77]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic supply - demand is approaching balance, the consumption is recovering, the inventory pressure is decreasing, and the import may increase [77][78]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see for corn; corn starch follows the corn market [77][78]. Logs - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of logs rose. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [79][80]. - **Supply - Demand**: The overseas export willingness has decreased, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [80][81]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as inventory changes, trade policies, supply and demand fundamentals, and market sentiment. Different metals show different trends, with some expected to be weak, some to be volatile, and others to be affected by short - term factors [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper closed down 0.21% to $9,637/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 77,950 yuan/ton. Trump's 50% copper tariff announcement will put pressure on LME and Shanghai copper prices [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 10,525 tons to 121,000 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts slightly increased to 50,000 tons [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The copper price is expected to be in a weak and volatile trend due to the tariff impact and the off - season [2]. - **Price Range**: The Shanghai copper main contract is expected to operate in the range of 77,200 - 78,600 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M in the range of $9,500 - 9,720/ton [2]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum closed down 0.29% to $2,575/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,425 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.65 tons to 33.6 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.7 tons to 42.4 tons [4]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term aluminum price may be volatile due to the low inventory and the off - season [4]. - **Price Range**: The domestic main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,550 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2,540 - 2,600/ton [4]. Lead - **Price Movement**: The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.20% to 16,911 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell by $2.5 to $1,986/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 58,100 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 271,100 tons [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The lead price is expected to be weak due to the relatively loose supply [6]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.21% to 22,023 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by $12.5 to $2,699/ton [8]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased to 93,100 tons [8]. - **Market Outlook**: In the long - term, the zinc price is expected to be bearish, while in the short - term, it is expected to be volatile [8]. Tin - **Price Movement**: The tin price was in a weak and volatile trend [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply shortage persists, and the demand is weak. The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces is 54.07% [9]. - **Inventory**: The national main market tin ingot social inventory decreased by 110 tons to 9,644 tons [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The tin price is expected to be in a weak and volatile trend due to the expected resumption of production in Myanmar [9]. - **Price Range**: The domestic tin price is expected to operate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin price in the range of $31,000 - 35,000/ton [9]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: The nickel price fell and adjusted [10]. - **Supply Impact**: The fire at Zhejiang Zhongneng has limited impact on pure nickel supply [10]. - **Market Outlook**: The nickel iron price is expected to continue to fall, and it is recommended to short the nickel price at high levels [10]. - **Price Range**: The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - 16,000/ton [10]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Movement**: The MMLC index was flat, and the LC2509 contract closed down 0.36% [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the price is expected to be affected by news and market sentiment [12]. - **Price Range**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange carbonate lithium 2509 contract is expected to operate in the range of 64,800 - 67,600 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index fell 1.56% to 3,094 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 25,500 tons [15]. - **Market Outlook**: The alumina price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to short at high levels [15]. - **Price Range**: The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to operate in the range of 2,850 - 3,300 yuan/ton [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,670 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [17]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased to 116,750 tons [17]. - **Market Outlook**: The stainless steel price is expected to be volatile due to the off - season demand [17]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movement**: The AD2511 contract rose 0.15% to 19,820 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by 40 tons to 28,000 tons [19]. - **Market Outlook**: The casting aluminum alloy price is expected to face resistance due to the off - season and the aluminum price pressure [19].

Market Overview - On July 16, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.03%, the CSI 300 fell by 0.3%, the STAR 50 rose by 0.14%, the CSI 1000 increased by 0.3%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.22%, and the Hang Seng Index declined by 0.29% [4] - The best-performing industries on July 16 were social services (+1.13%), automotive (+1.07%), pharmaceutical and biotechnology (+0.95%), light industry manufacturing (+0.94%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (+0.85%). The worst-performing industries were steel (-1.28%), banking (-0.74%), non-ferrous metals (-0.45%), non-bank financials (-0.43%), and construction decoration (-0.42%) [4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on July 16 was 14,617.34 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.603 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Key Insights - The macroeconomic research indicates that with the gradual implementation of tariffs, external demand is expected to weaken, signaling an approaching downturn in exports. Attention is drawn to the impact of tariff conflicts on companies establishing overseas warehouses for cross-border stockpiling, which may disrupt export rhythms [5] - The macroeconomic deep report highlights that the economic recovery in June shows a good momentum, with the actual GDP growth in the second quarter at 5.2%. The growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, indicating a significant divergence between supply and demand [6]

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of the U.S. tariff policy, specifically the "reciprocal tariffs" introduced by the Trump administration, and its implications for the U.S. economy and global trade dynamics. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Introduction of Reciprocal Tariffs**: The reciprocal tariffs were implemented on April 2, 2024, and have been evolving since then, with ongoing discussions about potential negotiations between the U.S. and China [1][2][3]. 2. **Tariff Calculation Methodology**: The tariffs are calculated based on the trade deficit the U.S. has with other countries, with a specific formula provided by the U.S. Trade Representative's office. For instance, the trade deficit with China was $295.4 billion against imports of $438.9 billion, resulting in a tariff rate of approximately 67% [2][3]. 3. **Tariff Rates on Other Countries**: Besides China, the U.S. has imposed tariffs on other countries, such as 40% on Vietnam and around 50% on Lesotho, indicating a broad application of these tariffs [3]. 4. **Underlying Economic Logic**: The rationale behind these tariffs is argued to be flawed, as the U.S. trade deficit is more a reflection of domestic demand exceeding supply rather than unfair trade practices by other countries [4][5][6]. 5. **Historical Context of the Dollar**: The discussion highlights the historical evolution of the international monetary system, particularly the transition from the Bretton Woods system to the current fiat currency system, which has allowed the U.S. to maintain a trade deficit by printing dollars without physical backing [8][9][10]. 6. **Consequences of Trade Deficits**: The U.S. has benefited from its trade deficits by acquiring goods and services globally at a low cost, but this has led to domestic issues such as deindustrialization and widening income inequality [11][12][16][17]. 7. **Potential Solutions for the U.S.**: Suggestions include abandoning dollar hegemony and establishing a supranational currency to address income inequality and the negative impacts of globalization [18][19][20]. 8. **Impact on U.S. Economy**: The implementation of reciprocal tariffs has led to a significant decline in investment confidence in the U.S., as evidenced by the Syntex investment confidence index [25]. The tariffs have also created uncertainty in the global economic outlook, affecting investment willingness [25][27]. 9. **Financial Market Reactions**: The financial markets have reacted negatively to the tariffs, with a notable decline in the U.S. dollar's strength and rising bond yields, indicating a loss of confidence in the U.S. as a safe haven [26][27][32]. 10. **Future Globalization Trends**: The current global trade dynamics are shifting, with the potential for a new form of globalization that may depend heavily on China's economic choices and domestic policies [23][24]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Domestic Economic Pressures**: The U.S. faces significant internal pressures, including rising inflation and a potential debt crisis as the trade deficit is compressed [37][38]. 2. **China's Economic Strategy**: China is encouraged to enhance domestic consumption and investment to mitigate the impacts of U.S. tariffs and maintain economic stability [23][24][50]. 3. **Long-term Economic Outlook**: The long-term sustainability of the U.S. economic model, heavily reliant on trade deficits and dollar dominance, is questioned, with implications for future economic policies [32][57]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the implications of U.S. tariff policies and the broader economic context.

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of great companies often coincides with the process of bubbles forming and bursting, particularly in the context of technological revolutions and economic cycles [6][38]. Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The Chinese real estate market has been in a correction phase since 2021, with expectations that it will stabilize around 2027 [6][64]. - The adjustment in the real estate market has seen a general decline in property prices by 20%-30% since 2021, with predictions of further declines of 20%-30% in the coming years [64][66]. - The rental yield in major Chinese cities is significantly lower than international standards, indicating a potential overvaluation of real estate [65]. Group 2: Behavioral Finance and Market Dynamics - Behavioral biases such as overconfidence, linear extrapolation, and reluctance to cut losses are prevalent among investors, leading to irrational market behaviors [21][22][23]. - The strong local preference among investors can lead to a lack of diversification in investment portfolios, increasing vulnerability to market downturns [19][20]. - The social network effects in East Asian societies amplify these behavioral biases, leading to herd behavior in investment decisions [26][27]. Group 3: Industry-Specific Observations - The technology and innovation sectors, including AI and new energy vehicles, are experiencing significant investment interest, but historical patterns suggest that such enthusiasm often leads to bubbles [54][57]. - The new energy vehicle industry faces challenges of overcapacity, with reports indicating that production capacity in certain sectors exceeds global demand by 150% [58]. - The government’s role in guiding industry development has led to both opportunities and challenges, including the risk of overcapacity due to competitive local government policies [82]. Group 4: Recommendations for Stakeholders - Entrepreneurs should maintain their passion for innovation while being realistic about the challenges of the entrepreneurial journey [42][88]. - Investors, particularly in venture capital and private equity, should focus on understanding the underlying value of projects and avoid speculative investments [49][50]. - The government should shift its focus from traditional infrastructure investments to enhancing social welfare systems to boost consumer confidence and spending [78][81].

Report's Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic data in June was mixed. The domestic economy showed strong resilience, with robust industrial production, better-than-expected exports, and a comprehensive rebound in financial data. However, the upward pressure on price indices increased, the growth rate of real estate sales declined, and the rebound of the manufacturing PMI was weak. The domestic economy is in a state of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum, and the pressure on nominal GDP is higher than that on real GDP. Macroeconomic policies need to increase support to boost market confidence. "Boosting domestic demand and combating cut - throat competition" will be important policy approaches. Despite the twists and turns, the macroeconomy and asset prices in 2025 are expected to continue the upward repair trend [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Manufacturing PMI Continues to Rebound but Remains Weak - In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points; medium - sized enterprises' PMI was 48.6%, up 1.1 percentage points; small - sized enterprises' PMI was 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points. Among the five classification indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index, and supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the raw material inventory index and employment index were below it [4]. - The production index was 51.0%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating accelerated production activities. The new order index was 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points, showing improved market demand. The raw material inventory index was 48.0%, up 0.6 percentage points, indicating a narrowing decline in raw material inventory. The employment index was 47.9%, down 0.2 percentage points, showing a slight decline in employment. The supplier delivery time index was 50.2%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating faster delivery [4][5]. - In May, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage point. In June, it was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points. The construction business activity index in June was 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, and the service business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.1 percentage point. The rebound of the manufacturing PMI was weak, indicating that the recovery momentum of the domestic economy still needs to be strengthened [7]. 2. CPI Rose 0.1% Year - on - Year in April, and PPI Fell 2.7% Year - on - Year - In June 2025, the national CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year. Urban CPI rose 0.1%, rural CPI fell 0.2%. Food prices fell 0.3%, non - food prices rose 0.1%. Consumer goods prices fell 0.2%, service prices rose 0.5%. The CPI in the first half of the year fell 0.1% compared with the same period last year. The CPI fell 0.1% month - on - month. The core CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.7% year - on - year, reaching a seven - month high, showing signs of bottoming out [8][9]. - In June 2025, the national PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The industrial producer purchase price fell 4.3% year - on - year and 0.7% month - on - month. In the first half of the year, the PPI fell 2.8% compared with the same period last year. Industries such as coal, ferrous metals, and petrochemicals had large year - on - year declines, dragging down the PPI. The "anti - cut - throat competition" policy is expected to improve the over - capacity situation and boost the PPI's recovery [11]. 3. Both Exports and Imports in June Were Better than Expected - In June, China's exports increased 5.8% year - on - year in US dollars, 1.0 percentage point faster than in May. Imports increased 1.1% year - on - year, up 4.5 percentage points from a decline in May. The trade surplus was $114.77 billion, an increase of $11.55 billion. Domestic exports showed strong resilience despite overseas tariff impacts [13]. - In June, China's exports to the US were $38.17 billion, with the year - on - year decline narrowing to - 16.1%. Exports to the EU were $49.22 billion, with a growth rate of 7.6%. Exports to ASEAN countries were $58.185 billion, up 16.8% year - on - year. Exports to Japan were $13.435 billion, up 6.6% year - on - year. Exports in the second quarter were better than expected, and exports in 2025 are likely to remain strong [15][16]. 4. Financial Data in June Rebounded Comprehensively, and the M1 - M2 Gap Narrowed Further - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. By the end of June, the stock of social financing was 430.22 trillion yuan, up 8.9% year - on - year. The growth rate of social financing rebounded due to increased government bond issuance [18][19][24]. - In terms of resident credit, in May, short - term loans increased by 262.1 billion yuan, 15 billion yuan more than the same period last year, and medium - and long - term loans increased by 335.3 billion yuan, 15.1 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Consumption credit demand was weak, but mortgage loans were stable. In terms of enterprise credit, in May, short - term loans increased by 1160 billion yuan, 490 billion yuan more than the same period last year, and medium - and long - term loans increased by 1010 billion yuan, 40 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Enterprise confidence and expectations were weak, and financing demand was not strong [20][22]. - At the end of June, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year - on - year, and the balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, up 4.6% year - on - year. The M1 - M2 gap narrowed to 3.7%. M1 and M2 were in an upward trend [22]. 5. Industrial Production Was Stable, and the Consumption Growth Rate Slightly Declined - In June, the added value of large - scale industries increased 6.8% year - on - year in real terms and 0.50% month - on - month. From January to June, it increased 6.4% year - on - year. Industrial production remained at a relatively high level. In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,228.7 billion yuan, up 4.8% year - on - year. From January to June, they were 24,545.8 billion yuan, up 5.0% year - on - year. The growth rate of consumer goods was within a reasonable range, benefiting from consumption subsidies and trade - in policies [25][26]. - In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 24,865.4 billion yuan, up 2.8% year - on - year. Manufacturing investment remained at a high level, while the growth rates of infrastructure investment and real - estate development investment further declined [27]. 6. The Growth Rate of Real Estate Sales Declined but Remained at the Bottoming - Out Stage - From January to June, the sales area of new commercial housing was 458.51 million square meters, down 3.5% year - on - year, and the sales volume was 4,424.1 billion yuan, down 5.5% year - on - year. In June, the growth rates of real - estate sales volume and area continued to decline but were still within a reasonable range. The construction, new - start, and completion areas of real estate were still in a downward trend. The inventory of commercial housing slightly decreased [29][31][33]. - In June, the real - estate market cooled in the second quarter, but it is still in an improving trend, including the stabilization of commercial - housing sales growth and a significant rebound in second - hand housing transactions. The real - estate market is at the bottoming - out stage. With the decline of the base, the year - on - year decline in the sales area and volume of commercial housing will further narrow. Real - estate policies still have room for further strengthening [36][37][39]. 7. Summary and Outlook - In general, the domestic economic data in June was mixed. Industrial production was strong, and exports maintained high growth. However, the recovery momentum of the domestic economy needs to be strengthened, the price index was weak, the real - estate market was still at the bottoming - out stage, and the endogenous consumption demand was weak. The macroeconomy is in a state of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum [40]. - The main factors affecting the poor perception of the macroeconomy and the repair of asset prices are the overall lack of market demand and the structural over - capacity in multiple industries, leading to downward pressure on the price index and weak recovery of corporate profits. "Boosting domestic demand and combating cut - throat competition" will be important policy approaches. In 2025, the macroeconomy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward repair trend, and patience is needed [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings was found in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper market is affected by both macro and fundamental factors. The expected 50% tariff on US copper in late July, along with weakening demand and existing supply - side contradictions, may lead to price fluctuations. The主力 contract price is expected to be affected by the 78000 support level [1]. - **Aluminum**: For alumina, the market is in a state of small - scale surplus, with prices expected to oscillate between 2950 - 3250. For aluminum, high - level prices face pressure due to inventory accumulation, weakening demand, and macro uncertainties, with the主力 contract price expected to range from 20000 - 20800 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The regenerative aluminum market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with demand being the more prominent issue. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract running between 19400 - 20200 [4]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market has a loose supply expectation in the long - term. Although the inventory level provides some price support, the domestic social inventory may enter a stockpiling cycle. The main contract price is expected to range from 21500 - 23000 [7]. - **Nickel**: In the nickel market, the cost support for refined nickel is weakening, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference of 118000 - 126000 [10]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period. It is recommended to hold short positions from the previous high [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel market has weak demand and slow inventory reduction. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract running between 12500 - 13000 [14][15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market has short - term price support due to news and capital sentiment, but the medium - term pressure remains, and there may be a downward trend. The short - term main contract is expected to run between 63000 - 68000 [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped by 0.59% to 77995 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 155 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 35.97% to 545 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, and the import volume in May increased by 1.23% to 25.31 million tons. The domestic social inventory increased by 3.29% to 14.76 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose by 0.20% to 20510 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 110 yuan/ton. The alumina price in Shandong increased by 0.32% to 3150 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.22% to 360.90 million tons. The aluminum profile production rate remained unchanged at 49.50% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20000 yuan/ton. The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 40 yuan/ton to 90 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the regenerative aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 1.49% to 61.50 million tons, and the primary aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 2.30% to 25.50 million tons [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped by 0.14% to 22150 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss increased by 63.52 yuan/ton to - 1260 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the refined zinc production increased by 6.50% to 58.51 million tons, and the import volume in May decreased by 5.36% to 2.67 million tons. The galvanizing production rate increased by 1.81% to 58.29% [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped by 1.11% to 120400 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss decreased by 447 yuan/ton to - 2442 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the Chinese refined nickel production was 31800 tons, and the import volume increased by 116.90% to 19157 tons. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.83% to 24922 tons [10]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price dropped by 0.71% to 264600 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2508 - 2509 decreased by 120 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the tin ore import volume increased by 36.39% to 13449 tons, and the SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% to 14840 tons [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped by 0.39% to 12750 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2509 - 2510 decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 companies) in April decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons, and the 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 3.39% to 52.48 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.39% to 64900 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 110 yuan/ton to - 1960 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the lithium carbonate production increased by 8.34% to 78090 tons, and the demand decreased by 0.15% to 93876 tons. The total inventory increased by 2.27% to 99858 tons [17].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is facing significant challenges due to overcapacity and intense competition, leading to a need for technological upgrades and the elimination of outdated production capacity [3][4]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that global new PV installations will reach 602 GW in 2024, while China's PV industry nominal capacity exceeds 1000 GW [3]. - The nominal capacity reported by companies often includes inflated figures, structural overcapacity due to technological iterations, and ineffective capacity that lacks cost competitiveness [3]. - The industry is experiencing a downturn, but companies like Tongwei Co., Ltd. have shown notable performance despite the challenges [4]. Group 2: Tongwei's Business Development - Tongwei entered the silicon material industry through the acquisition of Yongxiang Co. in 2015 and expanded into the PV battery business in 2016 [6]. - In 2022, Tongwei's silicon material revenue reached 61.86 billion, accounting for 56.3% of its PV business revenue, while its battery and component revenues were 41.42 billion, making up 69.3% of its total revenue [8][12]. - The company has faced backlash for its low-price bidding strategies, which have disrupted market order and led to a significant drop in component profit margins [8][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Financial Performance - Tongwei's high-purity silicon sales peaked in 2022 at 24.1 million yuan per ton, with a remarkable gross profit margin of 75.1%, but fell to 4.3 million yuan per ton in 2024, resulting in a gross profit margin of only 2% [14][19]. - Despite increasing sales volumes, revenue has sharply declined due to falling prices, with 2024 projected sales of 46.76 million tons generating only 19.9 billion yuan [15][17]. - The company's market share in high-purity silicon is approximately 30%, maintaining its position as a global leader, particularly in N-type products [19][20]. Group 4: Cost Structure and Competitive Position - The cost structure of Tongwei's PV products has evolved, with raw material costs accounting for 78% of total costs in 2024, down from 90% during peak market conditions [26][27]. - Labor costs have improved significantly, with unit product labor costs dropping to 44% of 2019 levels by 2024 [27][28]. - The company's integrated business model has allowed it to maintain profitability in its battery and component segments, even when high-purity silicon prices are low [35][36]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - Tongwei's expansion into the component business has proven beneficial, increasing revenue scale and operational resilience, with battery and component revenues reaching 41.4 billion yuan in 2024 [35][36]. - The company's integrated approach contrasts with competitors like TCL Zhonghuan, which has struggled with losses, highlighting the advantages of vertical integration in a competitive market [38].

Core Viewpoint - The EU is seeking to rebalance its economic relationship with China, focusing on market access for European companies and easing export controls on rare earths, amidst ongoing trade tensions and challenges in the EU-China relationship [1][3]. Economic Relations - The EU's trade surplus with China reached $357 billion in 2024, attributed to fair market competition and the growth of China's manufacturing sector, rather than unfair practices [5][14]. - The EU is concerned about China's manufacturing subsidies leading to overcapacity, which it views as a threat to trade balance [6][10]. Trade Disputes - Recent trade disputes include China's restrictions on EU medical device imports and anti-dumping duties on EU brandy, indicating ongoing tensions ahead of the upcoming EU-China summit [8][13]. - The upcoming summit, intended to celebrate the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations, is overshadowed by these trade disagreements, potentially leading to a shortened meeting [8][13]. Rare Earths and Resource Supply - The EU is pushing for China to relax its export controls on rare earth materials, which are critical for various industries, while also seeking to develop alternative supply sources [10][11]. - China currently dominates the global rare earth market, accounting for two-thirds of mining and 92% of refining, giving it significant leverage in negotiations [10][11]. Strategic Choices - The EU faces a strategic decision in its relationship with China, balancing pressures from the US and the need for stable partnerships with major economies [15][16]. - A potential collaboration between the EU and China could mitigate the impact of US tariffs, highlighting the importance of cooperation over conflict [15].

Group 1 - The macroeconomic outlook has improved, leading to a strong performance in the A-share market. Recent international developments have shown marginal improvement, with the U.S. fiscal expansion plan helping to alleviate recession expectations and stabilize global capital markets [1] - Domestic efforts to combat "involution" are ongoing, which is expected to ease overcapacity concerns and positively impact profit expectations. Investors are closely monitoring macroeconomic data for June and the first half of the year, as well as future policy directions [1] - The two markets exhibited volatility and differentiation, with trading volume decreasing. On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight rebound, closing above the five-day moving average, while the Shenzhen Component Index saw a slight decline. The total trading volume was around 1.4 trillion yuan, down from the previous Friday [1] Group 2 - The market structure showed more stocks rising than falling, with a notable increase in the number of stocks hitting the daily limit up, although there was also a rise in limit down stocks, which warrants attention. The main market focus was on the robotics and power sectors, with small-cap stocks leading in gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the dense trading area from the fourth quarter of last year, continuing to move upward. After surpassing the small trading range from May and June, it has crossed above the dense trading area from the fourth quarter of last year, with the main technical resistance level now at the high point from early October last year, which also represents the top of the weekly large trading range [1]