近日，管理着超过190亿美元资产的知名对冲基金孤松资本（Lone Pine Capital）联席首席投资官David Craver，在参加高盛《Great Investors》系列访谈 时，分享了其对于当前市场结构变化、人工智能（AI）进程以及投资哲学的深度思考。 告别"短视"：思考3-5年的世界格局 作为"老虎系"（Tiger Cub）基金的代表之一，孤松资本一直坚持基本面多头策略。Craver观察到，市场结构已经发生了根本性变化。 与他入行初期相比，当前市场最显著的变化在于两点：一是单只股票围绕事件的波动率处于历史高位，且往往与定性的基本面消息脱钩；二是高估值现 象在巨头中泛滥。 "我过去常对合伙人说，读完一篇新闻稿，我就能告诉你第二天股价会怎么走，但现在情况已不再如此。"Craver表示，由于被动投资和多策略基金的兴 起，市场对短期信息的反应往往过度且不理性。 在这种环境下，Craver认为真正的"阿尔法（Alpha）"机会来自于这一片被遗忘的空白地带——时间维度。 "我不关心一家公司是否会在下个季度超出预期，有太多人在做这种短期的'暗夜格斗'（night fight），试图根据一组事实推测短期股价。 ...

责任编辑：杨赐 新浪科技讯 2月12日上午消息，千问App发布"春节30亿大免单"第一波活动数据：过去6天，用户说了41 亿次"千问帮我"，AI完成下单超1.2亿笔。 新浪科技讯 2月12日上午消息，千问App发布"春节30亿大免单"第一波活动数据：过去6天，用户说了41 亿次"千问帮我"，AI完成下单超1.2亿笔。 责任编辑：杨赐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing importance of previously undervalued minerals in the military sector, highlighting the competition between the U.S. and China for mineral dominance, particularly in the context of AI and electric vehicles [2][4]. Group 1: Mineral Importance and Market Dynamics - Historically overlooked minerals are now critical in military applications, prompting the U.S. to strive for a return to mineral dominance previously held by China [2]. - China's monopoly on rare earth elements and other minerals is projected to remain largely unchanged, according to the International Energy Agency [8]. Group 2: Historical Context and Strategic Moves - The shift in focus towards minerals began with Deng Xiaoping's recognition of China's rare earth potential in the 1990s, leading to China's dominance in the market due to lower environmental costs compared to other countries [4][5]. - The U.S. has taken strategic actions, such as signing mining agreements with the Democratic Republic of Congo, to secure essential minerals like cobalt, which are crucial for defense and technology [6]. Group 3: Future Demand and Supply Chain Challenges - The demand for minerals is expected to surge, with projections indicating that copper demand could increase sixfold by 2050 due to rising electricity needs [5]. - The U.S. faces significant challenges in catching up to China's production capabilities, as evidenced by the low output of U.S. companies compared to their Chinese counterparts [8]. Group 4: Japan's Strategic Response - Japan is advised to build a national reserve of minerals to ensure supply security, as current reserves are insufficient for long-term needs [9]. - The rising costs associated with deep-sea mining projects in Japan highlight the challenges the country faces in securing its mineral resources [9].

智通财经获悉，周三，美国股市回吐早盘涨幅最终收跌，尽管就业数据强劲提振市场，但对人工智能 (AI)冲击多个行业的担忧抑制了此轮反弹。 标普500指数微跌收盘，盘中一度有望刷新历史收盘新高，最终悉数回吐涨幅。科技权重集中的纳斯达 克100指数收涨0.3%，盘中最高上涨1%;而芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)徘徊在18附近。 "就业报告发布后的反弹有些出人意料，毕竟近期市场更关注美联储，而非经济本身，"Nationwide首席 策略师Mark Hackett表示，"此轮抛售主要来自科技板块，延续了过去几个月的格局——国际股与价值股 领涨。" 一项衡量美股"七巨头"的指数下跌0.6%，跟踪软件股的ETF大跌2.6%。 一周多来，由于市场担忧AI对行业带来颠覆性冲击，软件股持续承压。投资者转而拥抱业务难以被AI 替代的公司。 房地产服务类股周三也走低，因市场评估该类企业面对AI技术冲击的脆弱性。世邦魏理仕(CBRE.US)重 挫12%，仲量联行(JLL.US)与Cushman & Wakefield(CWK.US)也双双下跌。 好消息反成坏消息 "成长股与动量股正承受最大压力，因市场预期利率将在更长时间维持高位， ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a sudden shift, with major indices closing lower after an initial rise, particularly impacting the software sector, which saw the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) drop by 2.55% [1] - Concerns over the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the real economy are growing, especially regarding the potential disruption to the software industry, leading to a decline in valuation multiples [1] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market faced significant sell-offs, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $66,000, experiencing a drop of over 4%, while Ethereum and SOL also saw declines exceeding 3% [1] - Data from CoinGlass indicated that in the last 24 hours, 144,691 traders were liquidated, with total liquidation amounts reaching $458 million [1] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, leading traders to reduce bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [2] - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmieding expressed concerns about persistent inflation, suggesting that rates should remain at a "slightly restrictive" level, while Fed Governor Milan held a contrasting view advocating for rate cuts [2] Asset Management Trends - Amundi, Europe's largest asset management firm with €2.8 trillion in assets, announced plans to reduce exposure to U.S. dollar assets and shift towards European and emerging markets due to concerns over U.S. economic policy [3] - The shift in strategy is echoed by other major institutions, such as the Swedish pension fund Alecta, which has sold off a significant portion of U.S. Treasuries due to concerns over U.S. government unpredictability and rising debt [3] Structural Reasons for Dollar Asset Bearishness - Amundi outlined three structural reasons for its bearish stance on dollar assets: 1. Diminishing private demand due to high interest rates and inflation eroding purchasing power [4] 2. Ineffectiveness of fiscal stimulus as large deficits contribute to inflationary pressures and debt burdens [4] 3. Policy uncertainty, particularly regarding tariffs, suppressing capital expenditure outside of AI [4] - A fundamental shift in the correlation between the dollar and U.S. equities and bonds is noted, with the dollar no longer acting as a stabilizer but rather as a volatility amplifier [4]

智通财经APP获悉，美东时间周三，网络设备巨头思科(CSCO.US)公布了截至1月24日的第二财季财报。尽 管季度业绩与全年营收指引均超出市场预期，并展现出人工智能(AI)业务带来的增长动力，但由于当前季 度的盈利预测平平，且利润率指引显著低于分析师预估，公司股价在盘后交易中大幅下挫。 财报显示，思科第二财季营收同比增长10%至153亿美元，市场预期为151亿美元，净利润从上年同期的 24.3亿美元增至31.8亿美元，调整后每股收益为1.04美元，优于市场预期的1.02美元。 在AI基础设施需求的强力拉动下，思科核心网络业务增长已有所提速。第二财季，来自超大规模数据中心 提供商的AI基础设施订单达到21亿美元，较前一季度的13亿美元显著增长。公司核心网络业务营收同比增 长21%至83亿美元，超越分析师预测的79亿美元。 虽然行业竞争在不断加剧——博通(AVGO.US)及收购了瞻博网络的慧与科技(HPE.US)等传统网络设备商， 也试图从开发及运行AI模型所需的硬件投资热潮中分得一杯羹。 但首席执行官Chuck Robbins表示，公司正处于"为AI时代提供可信基础设施"的独特位置，并预计整个2026 财年来自 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant downturn, with major indices collectively closing lower after an initial rise. The Nasdaq index saw a drop of nearly 1%, while the Russell 2000 index fell over 1%. Software stocks were particularly affected, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) declining by 2.55%, ServiceNow dropping over 5%, and Salesforce falling more than 4%. Analysts on Wall Street have raised concerns about the impact of AI on the software industry, suggesting that AI-driven workflows may erode the industry's valuation multiples [1] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market faced a severe sell-off, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $66,000, experiencing a drop of over 4% before narrowing its losses to 1.74%. Ethereum and SOL also saw declines exceeding 3%. In the last 24 hours, 144,691 individuals were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $458 million. The U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, leading traders to reduce bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Asset Management Trends - Amundi, Europe's largest asset management firm with €2.8 trillion (approximately ¥23 trillion) in assets, announced plans to reduce exposure to U.S. dollar assets and shift focus towards European and emerging markets. CEO Valerie Baudson indicated that if U.S. economic policies do not change, the dollar is likely to weaken further. The firm has been advocating for investment diversification over the past 12 to 15 months [3][4] Investment Shifts - Recent data shows that Wall Street investors are accelerating their shift towards international markets, with a net inflow of $51.6 billion (approximately ¥356.7 billion) into international stock ETFs in January. This trend is attributed to high valuations in the U.S. stock market, a weakening dollar, and new opportunities in overseas markets. Amundi predicts that U.S. real GDP growth will slow significantly to 1.6% by 2026, driven by structural factors rather than cyclical adjustments [6] Dollar Asset Concerns - The dual advantages of U.S. dollar assets—growth and yield—are diminishing. Concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability have led to a fundamental reversal in the correlation between the dollar and U.S. equities and bonds. Historically, when U.S. stocks declined, the dollar would typically strengthen due to its safe-haven status. However, current trends show that the dollar is moving in tandem with risk assets, indicating it is no longer a stabilizer but rather a volatility amplifier [7]

来源：券商中国 美股市场画风突变。 隔夜美股高开后，主要指数全线跳水，纳指盘中一度大跌近1%，以小盘股为主的罗素2000指数一度大 跌超1%，最终集体收跌，其中软件股全线大跌，iShares扩展科技软件行业ETF（IGV）收跌2.55%， ServiceNow大跌超5%，Salesforce大跌超4%。有华尔街分析师警告称，市场对AI（人工智能）冲击的担 忧持续加剧，软件行业很可能会被AI驱动的工作流程蚕食，这将影响该行业的估值倍数。 另外，加密货币市场也遭遇猛烈抛售，比特币一度跌破6.6万美元大关，一度大跌超4%，截至发稿，跌 幅收窄至1.74%；以太坊、SOL大跌超3%。根据CoinGlass数据统计，最近24小时，全球共有144691人被 爆仓，爆仓总金额为4.58亿美元。 消息面上，美国非农就业数据远超预期，交易员减少了对美联储今年降息的押注。美东时间2月11日， 美国堪萨斯城联邦储备银行行长杰夫·施密德表示，由于对仍然过高的通胀持续担忧，美联储应将利率 维持在"略带限制性"的水平。进一步降息可能导致高通胀持续存在。美联储理事米兰则表示仍有多种理 由需要降低利率。 与此同时，美元资产突传大利空。据最新 ...

混合办公成为标配，而非选项 混合办公已成定局。它已成为知识型工作的主流模式。约 91% 的雇主正在提供某种形式的灵活办公安 排。 对领导者而言，关键问题不是"员工应该来办公室几天"，而是"如何让办公时间创造最大价值"。 Trip.com一项严格的随机对照试验表明，每周两天远程办公的混合模式能使离职率降低约三分之一，且 不影响绩效。最初持怀疑态度的管理者在亲身体验后也改变了看法。这启示我们应将混合办公视为提升 员工体验、保留人才、聚焦重点的战略杠杆，并依此进行系统设计。2026年需要： 神译局是36氪旗下编译团队，关注科技、商业、职场、生活等领域，重点介绍国外的新技 术、新观点、新风向。 编者按：当前，混合办公已从"选项"变为"默认设置"，人工智能也从新奇工具深度融入日常工作流。然 而，全球员工敬业度持续低迷、倦怠蔓延、技能迭代加速。在此背景下，本文基于多项全球调研与前沿 实践，解码2026年职场核心趋势。在混合办公与AI主导的环境中，企业将通过整合工作平台、智能赋 能管理、将健康与安全融入流程，构建既高效又具韧性的人才体系。本文来自编译。 当下的职场环境依然充满挑战。员工心力交瘁，管理者疲惫不堪，工作堆积如山 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, the company reported GAAP net income of $18.3 million, or $0.13 per share, compared to a GAAP loss of $9.5 million, or $0.08 per share in Q3 2025 [21] - Book value per common share was $7.36 at December 31, 2025, slightly up from $7.35 at September 30, 2025 [22] - Economic return on book value was 2.6% for the quarter, including $0.04 of accretion from share repurchases and a $0.18 per share common dividend [22] - Non-GAAP consolidated earnings available for distribution (EAD) increased from $0.01 in Q3 to $0.20 in Q4, exceeding the common dividend [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Sequoia platform locked $5.3 billion of loans in Q4 2025, a 5% increase from Q3 and up 130% from Q4 2024 [11] - Aspire locked a record $1.5 billion of loans during Q4 2025, a 20% sequential increase, contributing to a total of over $3 billion for the year [16] - CoreVest closed out 2025 with full-year volumes up 13% versus 2024, with nearly 40% of Q4 production coming from residential transition loans [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company estimates that between $200 billion and $300 billion of jumbo mortgages could become refinanceable as mortgage rates hover just above 6% [7] - The company’s full-year 2025 jumbo market share was approximately 7%, significantly up from prior years [12] - Institutional participation in housing has drawn renewed focus, with proposals intended to limit ownership of single-family homes by large institutional investors [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is shifting towards increasing capital to mortgage banking platforms, with over 80% now invested in core operating activities at year-end 2025, up from 57% in 2024 [5] - The company plans to leverage AI to enhance risk management, accelerate capital deployment, and extract further gains in operating leverage [9] - The company is winding down its legacy investment portfolio to free up capital for redeployment into higher return mortgage banking platforms [6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the potential for volume growth in 2026, supported by a broader base of third-party capital partners and a simpler balance sheet [9] - The company expects core operating performance to drive consolidated earnings above the common dividend in 2026, enabling earnings retention and reinvestment [10] - Management noted that the refinance market could significantly expand volume expectations, particularly for the Sequoia business [15] Other Important Information - The company reported a 44% year-over-year reduction in operating costs per loan, attributed to technology enablement and operational efficiencies [19] - The legacy bridge portfolio's principal balance was reduced by nearly 40% in Q4, with 90-day plus delinquencies declining to $82 million, down over 65% from earlier in the year [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of recent mortgage rate movements on business volume - Management reported January volume at $3.6 billion, indicating continued acceleration from Q4 [29] Question: Opportunities in the Aspire non-QM platform and potential GSE reform impacts - Management highlighted strong momentum in non-QM products and expected continued growth, with GSE reform unlikely to impact the non-QM market significantly [31][34] Question: Future of third-party capital providers - Management noted strong demand for production and ongoing discussions with capital partners to support growth in Aspire and Sequoia [39] Question: Current margins in the non-QM channel compared to jumbo - Management indicated targeting margins in the non-QM channel similar to Sequoia, with the potential for increased efficiency through securitization [45] Question: Competitive landscape in the non-QM market - Management acknowledged increased competition but expressed confidence in their ability to grow market share due to operational advantages [48] Question: CoreVest originations and first-quarter volume expectations - Management projected higher volumes in Q1, with consistent margins expected [72]