Consumption - The contribution of trade-in programs to retail sales has weakened, with July retail sales growth declining by 1.1 percentage points to 3.7% year-on-year[3] - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy is expected to boost retail sales by approximately 0.2 percentage points, with a historical context showing a 1% subsidy could lead to a greater impact than previous years[4] - The consumer loan consumption rate has remained low, averaging around 2.5% since 2024, indicating a shift towards cash purchases rather than credit expansion[3] Production - Industrial production growth in July was 5.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.38%[5] - Service sector production also saw a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points to 5.8% year-on-year, with mixed performance across various industries[5] Fixed Investment - Real estate investment has further declined, with July showing a year-on-year drop of 12.0%, and new housing sales showing signs of weakness[6] - Manufacturing investment has decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 6.2%, with significant declines in sectors such as non-ferrous metallurgy and chemical products[6] - Infrastructure investment turned negative for the first time since 2021, with broad infrastructure showing a decline of 1.9% year-on-year in July[6] Economic Outlook - The data from July indicates a further weakening of domestic demand, suggesting increased downward pressure on economic growth in Q4, which may prompt policy adjustments[7] - Risks include potential underperformance of policy measures and unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy[7]

Core Viewpoint - The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region, comprising 41 cities, shows a robust economic performance in the first half of the year, with significant growth in social retail sales, particularly driven by consumption policies and the "old-for-new" initiative [2][4]. Group 1: Social Retail Sales Performance - Jiangsu leads the YRD with a social retail sales total of 2.39 trillion yuan, the only region surpassing 2 trillion yuan [2][3]. - Zhejiang and Anhui also reported strong growth in social retail sales, with totals of 1.8979 trillion yuan (5.3% YoY) and 1.2051 trillion yuan (5.5% YoY) respectively [2][3]. - Shanghai's social retail sales reached 826.04 billion yuan, showing a 1.7% YoY increase, marking a recovery from negative growth in the first quarter [2][3][7]. Group 2: Impact of "Old-for-New" Policy - The "old-for-new" policy is a significant driver of consumption, with central government support increasing from 150 billion yuan in 2024 to 300 billion yuan in 2025 [4][5]. - In Shanghai, the policy contributed over 540 billion yuan to social retail sales in the first half of the year [4]. - Zhejiang's retail sales in home appliances surged by 84.5%, while Anhui's "old-for-new" subsidies totaled 8 billion yuan, boosting retail sales growth by 11.2% [4][5]. Group 3: Restaurant Sector Trends - Shanghai's restaurant income declined by 2.6% to 99.14 billion yuan, contrasting with growth in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui, where restaurant income increased by over 5% [8]. - The disparity in restaurant performance indicates a shift in high-end dining dynamics, with resources migrating to Jiangsu and Zhejiang [8]. Group 4: Economic Activities and Events - The "Su Super" football league significantly boosted economic activity in Jiangsu, generating 37.96 billion yuan in service revenue, a 42.7% increase [9]. - The tourism and cultural sectors in Jiangsu also saw remarkable growth, with railway and air passenger transport revenues increasing by 90.7% and 46.5% respectively [10].

Economic Overview - In July, the economy continued to show weak domestic demand and strong external demand, but overall remained stable [2] - Retail sales in July reached 38,780 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year, but down 0.14% month-on-month [2][4] - From January to July, total retail sales amounted to 284,238 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [2] Consumption Trends - Despite weak domestic demand, there are still consumption highlights, particularly in the "trade-in" related sectors, where retail sales of home appliances and communication devices grew over 10%, with some categories even reaching 20% [2] - The growth rate of retail sales in July was 3.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, with food and beverage income also showing a marginal decline [4][5] - Service consumption performed relatively well, with service retail sales growing by 5.2% year-on-year from January to July, driven by tourism and diverse service offerings [6] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in July decreased by 0.63% month-on-month, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.6% from January to July [2][7] - The decline in investment growth reflects short-term weather disturbances and mid-term factors such as reduced real estate projects and equipment renewal cycles [7] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.2%, down 1.4 percentage points from previous values, indicating a slowdown in construction activities [7] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 12% in July, and new housing sales area also decreased by 4% [5][8] - The credit financing growth rate for real estate companies fell sharply to -15.8%, the lowest in two years, indicating a significant contraction in the sector [8] - The ongoing contraction in the real estate market suggests that the decline in investment growth may further widen as the market has not yet bottomed out after three years of shrinkage [8]

Group 1 - The implementation of large-scale equipment updates and the "old-for-new" consumption policy has positively impacted industrial transformation, consumption demand, and economic circulation [1][2] - From April 2024 to July 2025, the procurement amount of machinery and equipment by enterprises increased by 7.3% year-on-year, with industrial enterprises seeing a 9.8% increase [1] - The procurement amount for information transmission software and technology service industries grew by 27.8% and 28.3% respectively, indicating strong support for industrial upgrades [1] Group 2 - The "old-for-new" policy has stimulated diverse consumer demand, with sales of daily household appliances and audio-visual equipment increasing by 44.5% and 22.8% respectively from April 2024 to July 2025 [1] - The retail sales of furniture and sanitary ware grew by 30.1% and 13.6% respectively, while the service robot manufacturing industry saw a 51.1% increase [1] - The sales of new energy vehicles surged by 81.7%, reflecting the policy's significant impact on the automotive sector [1] Group 3 - The "supply and demand smoothness" has fostered a virtuous economic cycle, with the "Two New" policies driving retail demand and subsequently enhancing supply-side manufacturing efforts [2] - Manufacturing sales revenue increased by 5.8% year-on-year, contributing to a more efficient internal economic circulation [2] - The tax authority plans to strengthen the "policy + service" dual-drive approach to ensure the continued effectiveness of the "Two New" policies for high-quality economic development [2]

Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares opened lower but closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new closing high [1] - The leading consumption ETF (159928) rose by 0.12%, with a total trading volume exceeding 430 million yuan, and net subscriptions of 20 million units for three consecutive days [1] - As of August 14, the latest scale of the consumption ETF (159928) exceeded 13.5 billion yuan, significantly leading its peers [1] Group 2: Economic Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the industrial added value above designated size grew by 5.7% year-on-year in July, slowing down by 1.1 percentage points from June [5] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year in July, also down by 1.1 percentage points from June [5] - Fixed asset investment grew by 1.6% year-on-year from January to July, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [6] Group 3: Consumer Trends - The consumption recovery cycle driven by "old-for-new" trade-in programs peaked in May, with retail sales growth reaching 6.4%, followed by declines in June and July [6] - The main factor affecting retail sales in July was the decline in goods retail growth, which fell from 5.3% in June to 4.0% in July [6] - The average growth rate of "old-for-new" subsidized products dropped from 17.5% to 12.7%, while non-subsidized products saw an increase from 1.9% to 4.2% [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite potential pressures in the fourth quarter, there are three supporting factors for consumer growth in the second half of the year: gradual recovery in dining growth, the release of childbirth subsidies, and consumer loan interest subsidies [8] - The expected release of approximately 90 billion yuan in childbirth subsidies could boost retail sales growth by about 0.3 percentage points in the second half of the year [8] - Recent consumer policies, including personal consumption loan interest subsidies, are anticipated to support domestic consumption and stimulate consumer credit [10] Group 5: Investment Insights - The consumption ETF (159928) is characterized by its resilience across economic cycles, with the top ten constituent stocks accounting for over 68% of its weight [11] - Key stocks include leading liquor brands and major agricultural producers, indicating a strong focus on essential consumer goods [11] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption 50 ETF (159268) is highlighted as an efficient investment option for the new consumption sector, supporting T+0 trading and not occupying QDII quotas [12]

Group 1 - The "equipment update" policy has significantly contributed to industrial transformation and upgrading, with machinery equipment procurement amount increasing by 7.3% year-on-year from April 2024 to July 2025, and industrial enterprises seeing a 9.8% increase [1][2] - The information transmission and software industry, along with technology services, experienced substantial growth in equipment procurement, with increases of 27.8% and 28.3% respectively [1] - Private enterprises also showed a notable increase in equipment procurement by 9.3%, indicating the effective transformation of policy benefits into new driving forces for industrial upgrading [1] Group 2 - The "old-for-new" policy has stimulated diverse consumer demand, with retail sales of daily household appliances and audio-visual equipment increasing by 44.5% and 22.8% respectively from April 2024 to July 2025 [1] - Sales of furniture and sanitary ware also saw significant growth, with increases of 30.1% and 13.6% respectively, while the service robot manufacturing industry experienced a remarkable 51.1% growth [1] - The automotive sector benefited from the policy as well, with nationwide sales of new energy vehicles soaring by 81.7% during the same period [1] Group 3 - The implementation of the policies has created a positive interaction of "policy-driven - demand release - industrial upgrading," leading to a 5.8% year-on-year increase in manufacturing sales revenue from April 2024 to July 2025 [2] - The tax authority emphasizes the importance of a "policy + service" dual-drive approach to ensure the continued effectiveness of the "two new" policies, thereby injecting stronger momentum into high-quality economic development [2]

Economic Overview - In July, China's economic data showed a slight contraction in both supply and demand, with GDP growth estimated at 4.8%, down from 5.4%[2] - Industrial value added grew by 5.7% year-on-year, a decrease from 6.8% in the previous month, influenced by extreme weather conditions[2] - The service sector maintained strong growth, with a production index increase of 5.8%[2] Consumer Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year in July, significantly down from 6.4% and 4.8% in May and June respectively[2] - Dining revenue growth remained low at 1.1%, indicating weak consumer spending in the restaurant sector[5] - The "old-for-new" policy continued to show diminishing returns, with retail growth in related sectors declining for two consecutive months[5] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth for January to July was recorded at 1.6%, with real estate investment declining by 12.0%[21] - Infrastructure investment growth was only 3.2%, significantly lower than seasonal expectations, with July's investment growth estimated at -5.07%[4] - Manufacturing investment saw a marginal decline of 1.3 percentage points to 6.2%, with equipment updates being the only positive contributor[24] Real Estate Market - New residential property sales area decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, with sales value dropping by 6.5%[39] - The average price of new homes in major cities showed a narrowing decline, while second-hand home prices continued to fall, indicating unstable demand[39] - Real estate development investment totaled 53,580 billion yuan, with a monthly estimated decline of 17%[45] Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate rose to 5.2%, with local household unemployment increasing to 5.3%[58] - The demand for labor from external sources remained strong due to robust industrial production, but uncertainty in future employment needs led to higher local unemployment rates[64]

Economic Overview - In July, industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6.8% in June, while the service production index rose by 5.8%[1] - External demand showed unexpected strength with exports growing by 7.2%, surpassing the expected 5.9%, while internal demand weakened with retail sales increasing by only 3.7% compared to 4.8% in June[1] Consumer Trends - Retail sales growth declined from 6.4% in May to 4.8% in June and further to 3.7% in July, primarily driven by a slowdown in goods sales[1] - The sales growth of "trade-in" subsidy products fell from an average of 17.5% to 12.7%, indicating a significant impact on overall retail performance[1] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth dropped from 2.6% in June to 1.6% in July, with construction investment showing negative growth for the first time since August 2020, at -0.8%[1] - Manufacturing investment growth decreased from 7.5% in June to 6.2% in July, highlighting a divergence in investment performance across different sectors[2] Future Outlook - Despite potential pressures in Q4 due to high base effects and demand front-loading, there are three supporting factors for consumer growth in the second half of the year: gradual recovery in dining growth, the release of childbirth subsidies, and consumer loan interest subsidies[1] - The construction sector is expected to face continued pressure in August due to adverse weather conditions, but policy-driven financial tools may provide support in Q4[2]

Economic Overview - In July 2025, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month[3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year but decreased by 0.14% month-on-month[3] - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) rose by 1.6% year-on-year[3] Investment Trends - Both infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth turned negative in July, with broad infrastructure down by 1.9% and narrow infrastructure down by 5.1%[4][8] - Manufacturing investment growth fell from 5.1% in June to -0.3% in July, indicating a significant decline in investment momentum[6][23] Consumption Insights - The decline in retail sales growth to 3.7% in July was primarily driven by a decrease in automobile sales and weak demand in other categories[8][9] - The effectiveness of the "trade-in" policy for stimulating consumption has weakened, with significant drops in categories like automobiles and home appliances[9][34] Employment Concerns - The urban surveyed unemployment rate increased, indicating a potential rise in youth unemployment, particularly among the 16-24 age group[4][15] - The number of college graduates in 2025 is projected to be 12.22 million, higher than the previous year's 11.79 million, raising concerns about job market saturation[4] Risks and Challenges - The current economic environment shows signs of "production stability, weak consumption, and weak investment," posing risks for the second half of the year[3] - External shocks and insufficient effective demand remain significant challenges for economic performance in the latter half of 2025[3][10]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen is set to enhance its role as a high-level international trade hub, driven by the recent policy document issued by the central government, amidst a complex international landscape and trade uncertainties [2][4][6]. Economic Performance - Shenzhen's economy shows resilience and positive momentum, with foreign trade import and export volumes leading among mainland cities, and a notable increase in high-tech product exports [2][7]. Policy Initiatives - The "2025 Shenzhen Foreign Trade Support Policy" and "2025 Shenzhen Service Trade Development Support Policy" have been introduced to stabilize foreign trade and promote consumption, with a focus on supporting enterprises in expanding international markets [10][20]. Trade Facilitation - Efforts are being made to enhance cross-border trade facilitation, including the establishment of a favorable institutional environment for new trade models and the promotion of comprehensive pilot zones for cross-border e-commerce [8][11]. Consumer Market - The Shenzhen government has implemented 39 measures to boost consumption, including a successful "old-for-new" policy that has benefited over 11 million people and generated significant sales [20][21]. Service Trade Development - Shenzhen is advancing service trade innovation, with a focus on creating demonstration platforms and enhancing the integration of service and goods trade [13][14]. Future Outlook - The city aims to continue expanding its international competitiveness through initiatives like the promotion of high-value-added customs maintenance services and the development of new retail formats [16][17][23].