消息人士称，尽管央行可能在内部更新其政策利率距被认为中性的水平的估计值，但由于难以做出精确 预测，它不会将此估计作为未来加息路径的主要沟通工具。消息人士表示，相反，日本央行将解释称， 未来的加息决策将基于对过往加息如何影响银行贷款、企业融资条件和其他经济活动的考量。其中一位 消息人士表示，"日本的实际利率非常低，这使得日本央行能够分几个阶段继续加息，"另外两位消息人 士也持同样观点。 12月12日，据三位消息人士称，日本央行可能在下周维持将继续加息的承诺，但会强调进一步加息的步 伐将取决于经济对每次加息的反应。日本央行行长植田和男已基本提前宣布12月加息，市场几乎已完全 消化了12月将利率从0.5%上调至0.75%的可能性。市场的关注点已转向日本央行能在何种程度将利率提 升至中性水平。 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：山上 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 路透援引消息人士报道，日本央行下周或将维持加息承诺，加息步伐将取决于经济对每次加息的反应。 日本央行或不会发布关于中性利率的最新预估，也不会将其作为加息时机的主要沟通工具。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar (CAD) is experiencing a low-level fluctuation against the US dollar (USD), primarily due to the divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), alongside the resilience of the Canadian economy and support from rebounding oil prices [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Bank of Canada maintained its policy interest rate at 2.25% during the monetary policy meeting on December 10, indicating that the current rate is suitable for supporting structural economic transformation, marking the end of the rate-cutting cycle [1]. - Canada's GDP grew by 2.6% in Q3, significantly exceeding market expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.5% in November, indicating improvements in the job market [1]. - The inflation rate in Canada was stable at 2.2% in October, remaining close to the 2% target, with core inflation between 2.5% and 3%, suggesting manageable inflationary pressures [2]. Group 2: US Monetary Policy and Market Impact - The Federal Reserve completed its third rate cut of the year on December 11, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75%, with internal dissent among officials indicating significant divisions [2]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments on the downside risks to the US labor market have heightened expectations for further easing, contributing to a decline in the USD index below 99, which diminishes the dollar's attractiveness [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Focus - The technical outlook for USD/CAD shows a bearish trend, with the price consistently trading below the five-day moving average and a lack of rebound momentum [3]. - Key support levels are identified at 1.3740 and 1.3680, with potential for further decline towards 1.3600 if these levels are breached [3]. - Market attention is expected to focus on statements from BoC and Fed officials, trade-related data, and international oil price movements, which are crucial for CAD as a commodity currency [3].

他表示："根据近期企业盈利、工资谈判、日元在外汇市场的贬值以及与政府的对话等发展，日本央行 越来越明确地相信可以在即将到来的12月会议上加息。"这位经济学家预计，日本央行将在2026年6月加 息，随后在2027年1月和7月继续加息。 据一位前委员称，日本央行行长植田和男的政策路径可能包含到2027年进行多达四次加息，其中在下周 被广泛预期的举措之后，还将有三次加息。 "他们可能认为自己已经完全落后于形势了，"前官员早川英男（Hideo Hayakawa）在周三接受采访时表 示。"植田可能会暗示，这次加息不是本轮加息周期的终点。" 早川英男发表上述言论之际，外界普遍预计日本央行将在12月19日将借贷成本上调至0.75%，这是自1 月以来的首次行动。此次事件的市场焦点将在于央行如何定性未来的政策路径。 "他们可能会回到大约每六个月加息一次的节奏，"早川英男说。他表示，终端利率可能在1.5%左右， 这意味着在下周预期的行动之后，还需要再加息三次。 美银经济学家Takayasu Kudo早些时候也在一份报告中写道，在日本央行于12月18日至19日的会议上将 目标利率从0.5%上调至0.75%之后，预计将每六个月继续提 ...

日本央行前执行理事Hideo Hayakawa预计，央行行长植田和男可能在2027年前实施最多四次加息，其中 三次将在下周广泛预期的加息行动之后进行。这一预测反映出日本货币政策正步入更为激进的紧缩周 期。 周三，Hayakawa在接受彭博采访时表示，日本央行"可能认为自己已经完全落后于曲线"，植田和男即 便在下周加息后也会暗示紧缩周期尚未结束。市场普遍预期日本央行将在12月19日会议上将利率上调至 0.75%，这将是自1月以来的首次加息行动。 Hayakawa表示，日本央行此次推迟加息不应受到指责，因为决策层必须关注特朗普关税措施以及高市 早苗担任新首相时机等不确定性因素。 "特朗普和高市早苗是日本央行无法控制的变数，"Hayakawa说道，"这确实令人遗憾。" 按照某些观点，等到1月份会更合理，这样当局能够收集更多关于明年加薪势头的数据。但植田和男几 乎明确表态了加息立场。 财政政策风险加剧 前央行高官警告称，首相高市早苗的扩张性财政政策可能迫使日本央行加快加息步伐，并推高最终利率 水平。高市上月推出的经济刺激方案规模超出经济学家预期，可能加剧通胀压力。 这一预测表明日本正告别超宽松货币政策时代，投资者需为 ...

"我正在寻找一个在利率问题上诚实的人。我们的利率应该低得多。"他说。 北京时间周四凌晨，美联储如期宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间降至3.50%-3.75%。这是美联储2025年年内第三次降息， 也是继今年9月以来连续第三次降息。至此，今年累计降息幅度达75个基点。 不过，在美联储发布利率决议后不久，就遭到了美国总统特朗普的批评：降息力度还不够。 他指出，25个基点的降息是"一个相当小的数 字，本可以翻倍——至少翻倍"。 自特朗普上任以来，他就一直在不断敦促美联储大幅降息以刺激经济进一步增长。 此外，他还重申了长期以来对美联储主席鲍威尔的批评。 特朗普称，鲍威尔是"一个死板的人"，降息幅度"相当小"。 此前，鲍威尔在会后的新闻发布会上指出，最近的降息是一次"侥幸"，给了美联储"等待和观察经济如何发展"的空间。他还直接指责特朗普 的关税导致了美国"有点高"的通胀水平。 "这些数据高于今年早些时候，因为商品通胀上升，反映了关税的影响，"鲍威尔说道。 当天，特朗普在白宫与首席执行官们举行的圆桌会议上还表示，他计划在周三晚些时候与前美联储理事凯文·沃什面谈。后者与白宫国家经 济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特是"鲍威 ...

Group 1: Gold and Silver Market - Spot gold experienced a slight increase, closing up 0.39% at $4206.59, while currently fluctuating around $4196 [1] - Spot silver reached a milestone of $60 for the first time amid supply tightness, closing up 4.34% at $60.67 [1] Group 2: U.S. Federal Reserve Meeting - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Dow down 0.38% at 47560.29 points, S&P 500 down 0.09% at 6840.51 points, and Nasdaq up 0.13% at 23576.49 points [2] - Investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting, with a 25 basis point rate cut expected [5][6] - Key points of interest include Powell's speech tone, the dot plot for 2026 low-rate forecasts, and the number of dissenting votes within the committee [8] Group 3: International Market Reactions - Asian markets, including Japan and South Korea, initially opened strong but later declined, impacting A50 and A-shares [4] - Analysts suggest that global liquidity concerns are influencing market movements, particularly with Japan's 10-year bond yield surpassing 1.96% [4] Group 4: Political and Economic Developments - President Trump indicated that immediate significant rate cuts will be a key criterion for selecting the new Federal Reserve chair, highlighting potential tensions between the White House and the Fed [9] - Kevin Hassett, a candidate for the Fed chair, expressed that the Fed has ample room to lower the benchmark rate significantly, aligning with Trump's views [9][11] Group 5: Geopolitical Tensions - Ukrainian President Zelensky signaled a willingness to hold elections, marking a significant shift in his stance since the onset of the conflict [14] - Lithuania declared a state of emergency due to security risks from balloons entering its airspace from Belarus, leading to multiple airport closures [16]

Macro News - The main focus is on the anticipated 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with attention on the latest dot plot [1] - U.S. job vacancies have reached a five-month high, but rising layoffs indicate a weakening labor market [1] - The Bank of Japan's governor has hinted at potential interest rate hikes [1] - China's November inflation data is expected to show an accelerated CPI increase [1] Institutional Views - Despite better-than-expected JOLTS job vacancy data, market expectations for a December rate cut remain largely unchanged due to a prevailing dovish sentiment from Federal Reserve officials [2] - The current Fed chair candidate, Hassett, expressed a dovish stance, suggesting ample room for rate cuts, which has boosted investor expectations for future market liquidity [2] - Silver prices have surged due to ongoing supply-demand tensions, with rental rates remaining significantly above historical norms despite increased London inventory [2] - The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with a general expectation of hawkish sentiment, although comments from Trump and Fed candidates may counterbalance this [2] - Gold is expected to maintain a high volatility trend, while silver may remain strong due to macroeconomic and fundamental factors [2]

Core Insights - Deutsche Bank warns that despite widespread expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain a dovish stance, the next likely action in 2026 could be an interest rate hike rather than a cut, contradicting current mainstream consensus [1][2][4] Group 1: Global Economic Trends - Major economies are experiencing a significant reassessment of interest rate expectations, with markets in the Eurozone, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and Japan indicating a shift towards rate hikes as the next step [1][4] - The rapid reversal in expectations for Canada and Australia within just two weeks serves as a cautionary signal for the U.S. market [4] Group 2: U.S. Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 index recently reached an all-time high, but Deutsche Bank cautions that this optimistic outlook heavily relies on the Fed maintaining a loose monetary policy [2][7] - The sensitivity of the market to Federal Reserve officials' statements highlights the fragility of current policy path expectations [4][5] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Policy Implications - The current pace of interest rate cuts is unprecedented in a non-recessionary context, which historically can lead to economic overheating and inflation rebound, forcing central banks to reverse course [5][7] - The combination of fiscal stimulus from the "Big Beautiful" plan and persistent inflation is likely to alter the current policy narrative, making rate hikes a realistic consideration for 2026 [7] Group 4: Market Projections - Deutsche Bank's stock strategists project a target of 8000 points for the S&P 500 by 2026, implying an annual growth rate of 15-20%, contingent on the Fed's ability to maintain a dovish preference [7] - Any deviation from expected rate cuts towards hikes due to economic data could significantly impact the valuation models for risk assets [7]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 突然熄火了！ 今天早上，日韩股市一度高开高走，但随后不久，双双跳水，日经指数跌幅迅速扩大。新加坡、马来西 亚、越南、菲律宾等股市也全线走弱。或受此影响，A50快速跳水，跌幅一度达1%，A股和港股表现亦 受到明显拖累。 外汇市场，美元指数最近走势较强。而国债市场，日本6个月国债继续暴跌，多个期限国债走势较弱。 分析人士认为，日本央行行长强烈暗示12月加息，短期日元和日债收益率快速上行，鹰派信号引发市场 波动。另外，中国11月CPI同比涨幅创2024年3月份以来最高，这一向好数据可能给政策预期带来了一 丝扰动。 集体跳水 最近，全球市场波动明显加大。今早，日韩股市再度跳水，日经指数由涨近1%到跌超0.5%，韩股冲高 之后也是显著回落。澳大利亚股指表现也比较弱。A股开盘后，A50快速跳水超1%，带动市场情绪走 低。 早盘，创业板指一度跌超2%，沪指一度跌近30点，培育钻石、创新药、电池等方向跌幅居前，沪深京 三市下跌个股一度超3600只。近期港股更是持续处于弱势状态。 分析人士认为，市场调整一方面可能与全球流动性有关。2025年12月议息会议 ...