Market Performance - On September 30, the last trading day before the National Day holiday, the market performed well, with indices such as the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and the STAR Market Index reaching multi-year highs, while the Shanghai Composite Index approached 3900 points, with a total trading volume of 2.2 trillion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3882.78, up by 0.52%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index rose by 0.35% and remained flat, respectively [2] Sector Performance - Sectors such as non-ferrous metals, defense and military industry, chips, and real estate saw significant gains, while communication equipment, oil and gas extraction, diversified finance, and liquor sectors experienced declines [2] - Non-ferrous metals attracted over 14.3 billion yuan in net inflow from major funds, while power equipment and electronics received over 12 billion yuan and 9.5 billion yuan, respectively [2] Future Outlook - October is viewed as a critical policy layout window, with expectations for the capital market to stabilize and rise. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks may benefit from long-term policy layouts, concentrated industrial catalytic events, and a relatively loose liquidity environment [3] - The defense and military stocks showed strong performance, particularly in the aviation equipment sector, which surged over 4% [3] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector also saw strong gains, with the index rising over 2% to reach a new high for the year. Various cities are launching promotional policies to boost sales during the National Day holiday [8][11] - Specific initiatives include home purchase subsidies up to 50,000 yuan in Zhuzhou and discounts on home purchases in Guangzhou, with some projects offering appliance packages and management fee waivers [11]

Market Overview - A-shares ended the last trading day of September with all three major indices closing in the green, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.52% to 3882.78 points, marking the largest intraday gain [1] - In September, the Shanghai Composite Index accumulated a rise of 0.64%, achieving a five-month consecutive increase, although the monthly gain was the lowest since May; the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 6.54%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 12.04% [1] - Major broad-based indices saw the CSI 300 Index increase by 3.2%, the STAR 50 Index rise by 11.48%, the STAR Composite Index up by 7.11%, and the Xinhua 500 Index gain 3.66% [1] - The market showed a clear preference for larger companies, with the CSI 100 Index rising by 5.45%, the CSI 500 Index up by 5.23%, while the CSI 1000 Index only increased by 1.83% and the CSI 2000 Index even fell by 0.27% [1] Trading Activity - The A-share market was active in September, with total trading volume exceeding 50 trillion yuan, setting a historical record; all trading days except September 10 saw total trading volumes above 2 trillion yuan [1] - As of September 29, the financing balance in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 2.412 trillion yuan, an increase of 167 billion yuan from the end of August, with the financing balance accounting for 2.52% of the A-share market's circulating market value [1] Industry Performance - Among the 31 first-level industry indices, the power equipment sector led with a significant increase of 21.17%, followed by non-ferrous metals and electronics, both exceeding 10% [2][3] - The real estate sector experienced a rebound of 8.15%, ranking fourth, while media, machinery, and automotive sectors also saw gains of over 5% [2][3] - The sectors with the largest declines included defense, banking, non-bank financials, beauty care, social services, and food and beverage [2] Individual Stocks - Excluding newly listed stocks, nine stocks in September saw gains exceeding 100%, with Shoukai Holdings leading at 181.2% due to speculative trading related to its indirect stake in Yushu Technology [7] - Haibo Shichuang, a leader in electrochemical energy storage solutions, saw a rise of over 153% driven by surging overseas demand for energy storage [7] - The company is expanding its international presence and expects significant revenue from overseas markets, with a projected 540 million yuan in foreign income for 2024 [7] Future Outlook - October is viewed as a critical policy layout window, with expectations for stable market conditions as the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session approaches [8] - The market anticipates potential benefits for the robotics and innovative pharmaceutical sectors due to upcoming events, including the launch of Xiaopeng's fifth-generation humanoid robot and new drug developments from Chinese pharmaceutical companies [8] - There is strong speculation regarding a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, which could positively impact the Hong Kong market and facilitate capital inflows [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the sentiment and strategies of private equity funds as they approach the National Day holiday, indicating a generally optimistic outlook for the market post-holiday, with a significant portion of funds choosing to hold high positions in their portfolios [4][6][11]. Group 1: Private Equity Fund Positioning - Over 65% of private equity funds are opting for heavy or full positions during the holiday, believing that external market disturbances will be limited and that domestic fundamentals and policy environments provide a solid safety margin [6][4]. - The overall private equity position index reached 78.41% as of September 19, marking a 0.37 percentage point increase from the previous week and reflecting a trend of increased allocations [6][4]. - The majority of private equity funds are optimistic about the market's performance after the holiday, with 70.19% expecting a gradual recovery driven by policy and capital support [9][4]. Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - The primary investment focus is on technology growth sectors, with 59.62% of private equity funds highlighting areas such as AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals as key opportunities [10][4]. - A significant portion of funds (21.15%) is also looking at the valuation recovery in the new energy and real estate sectors, anticipating that clearer industry policies will provide rebound opportunities [10][4]. - There is a belief that the market will exhibit a balanced style post-holiday, with 62.50% of funds expecting a rotation among technology growth, value blue chips, and leading stocks [9][10]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The sentiment among private equity funds is generally positive, with many viewing the current market as transitioning from the second to the third phase of a bull market [11][12]. - The article notes that historical data shows a greater than 70% probability of market gains following the National Day holiday, supported by liquidity from institutional investments and retail participation [11][12]. - The anticipated "slow bull" market trend suggests that while short-term volatility may occur, the long-term outlook remains favorable, particularly for technology growth sectors [12][11].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming National Day holiday has led to increased attention on private equity fund positioning and their outlook for post-holiday market trends [1] Group 1: Private Equity Fund Positioning - Over 65% of private equity funds are opting for heavy or full positions during the holiday, indicating a positive outlook for market trends post-holiday [2][4] - The overall private equity position index has risen to a new high for the year, reaching 78.41%, reflecting a general trend of increasing positions among private equity funds [5] - A majority of private equity funds believe that the recent market adjustments have mitigated risks, leading to an expectation of continued market rebound post-holiday [4][5] Group 2: Market Outlook Post-Holiday - Approximately 70.19% of private equity funds hold an optimistic view regarding the A-share market's performance after the holiday, anticipating a gradual recovery driven by policy and capital [7] - 62.50% of private equity funds expect a balanced market style post-holiday, with rotation among technology growth, value blue chips, and high-quality stocks [7][8] - The focus on technology growth remains strong, with 59.62% of private equity funds prioritizing sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals for investment [8] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Themes - Private equity funds are particularly optimistic about sectors benefiting from policy support and economic transformation, such as AI and semiconductors [8][10] - Some funds are also looking at opportunities in undervalued sectors like renewable energy and real estate, anticipating valuation recovery [8][10] - The investment strategy is expected to balance between growth and value, with a focus on sectors that show resilience and potential for recovery [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the positioning of private equity funds ahead of the National Day holiday, indicating a general optimism about the market's performance post-holiday, with a significant majority opting for high exposure levels [2][5][6]. Group 1: Private Equity Fund Positioning - Over 65% of private equity funds are choosing to hold heavy or full positions (over 70% exposure) during the holiday, believing that external market disturbances will be limited and that domestic fundamentals and policy environments provide a solid safety margin [5][6]. - 17.31% of private equity funds are adopting a moderately heavy position (50% to 70% exposure), citing the presence of uncertainties during the holiday but still recognizing structural opportunities in individual stocks [5]. - Only 5.77% of private equity funds are opting for light positions (less than 30% exposure), reflecting a cautious stance due to significant market gains prior to the holiday and potential for adjustments post-holiday [5][6]. Group 2: Market Outlook Post-Holiday - 70.19% of private equity funds are optimistic about the A-share market's performance after the holiday, viewing pre-holiday market fluctuations as a consolidation phase, with expectations for gradual recovery driven by policy and capital [8][12]. - 62.50% of private equity funds anticipate a balanced market style post-holiday, with rotations among technology growth, value blue chips, and high-quality stocks [8][9]. - The focus on technology growth remains strong, with 59.62% of private equity funds favoring sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are seen as key drivers for future economic transformation [9][12]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Themes - The article highlights a consensus among private equity funds that the investment focus will remain on technology growth, with 23.08% firmly optimistic about sectors like AI and semiconductors continuing to perform well [9][10]. - 21.15% of private equity funds are looking at the valuation recovery of the new energy and real estate sectors, expecting these low-valuation areas to provide rebound opportunities as industry policies clarify [9][10]. - The article also notes that 14.42% of private equity funds foresee a "high-low switch" in the market, where previously lagging traditional industries and high-dividend blue chips may experience a resurgence [9].

点评：2024年全国社保基金8.1%的投资收益率彰显其稳健运营能力，为市场注入信心。这一业绩 将提升社保基金对A股市场的配置力度，利好金融、消费等蓝筹板块。社保基金作为长期机构投资者， 其优异表现有助于引导市场价值投资理念，对整体市场稳定性形成支撑，也为其他机构投资者提供参考 标杆。 NO.3 从管理到专注投研，易方达张清华卸任副总经理 ｜2025年9月30日 星期二｜ NO.1 中国外汇交易中心：支持债券通下境外机构投资者参与债券回购交易 为落实中国人民银行《关于进一步支持境外机构投资者在中国债券市场开展债券回购业务的公 告》，中国外汇交易中心暨全国银行间同业拆借中心（下称"交易中心"）于9月29日起扩大境外机构投 资者债券回购交易服务渠道及范围，在结算代理渠道下支持全部类型境外机构投资者开展债券回购交 易，并通过与彭博等境外第三方平台的互联，支持债券通下境外机构投资者参与债券回购交易。29日， 新机制下18家境外机构投资者与工商银行、农业银行、交通银行、浦发银行、中国银行、建设银行、招 商银行、中信银行、上海银行、中信证券、兴业银行和中金公司等回购做市商达成"债券通"北向通买断 式回购交易共计44笔、39 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the positioning of private equity funds ahead of the National Day holiday and their outlook for the market post-holiday, indicating a generally optimistic sentiment among private equity managers [2][10]. Group 1: Private Equity Fund Positioning - Over 65% of private equity funds are opting for heavy or full positions during the holiday, believing that external market disturbances will be limited and that domestic fundamentals and policy environments provide a solid safety margin [4][5]. - The stock private equity position index reached 78.41% as of September 19, marking a new high for the year, reflecting a trend of increased positions among private equity funds [4][10]. Group 2: Market Outlook Post-Holiday - Approximately 70.19% of private equity managers hold an optimistic view on the A-share market post-holiday, expecting a gradual recovery driven by policy and capital [6][11]. - 62.50% of private equity funds anticipate a balanced market style post-holiday, with rotation among technology growth, value blue chips, and white horse stocks [7]. Group 3: Investment Focus Areas - 59.62% of private equity funds are focusing on technology growth sectors, particularly AI, semiconductors, humanoid robots, smart driving, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are seen as key drivers for future economic transformation [7][8]. - 21.15% of private equity funds are optimistic about the valuation recovery in the new energy and real estate sectors, expecting rebound opportunities as industry policies become clearer [7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Strategies - The article suggests that the current market is in a "slow bull" phase, with expectations of continued structural opportunities in the stock market, particularly in high-growth sectors and stable value stocks [10][11]. - The upcoming third-quarter earnings reports are expected to play a crucial role in determining market rotation, with high-growth stocks and stable value stocks alternating in attracting capital [10].

Group 1 - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes high-quality development and the importance of a new development concept to guide economic and social progress during the 15th Five-Year Plan period [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission announces a new policy financial tool with a scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at supplementing project capital and potentially leveraging investments of around 6 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Department of Commerce introduces new export control rules affecting subsidiaries of companies on the "Entity List," which China firmly opposes [2] - Japan updates its export control list, adding several Chinese companies, which China also condemns [2] - The tourism industry in China shows rapid recovery post-pandemic, with domestic travel reaching 3.285 billion trips and total spending of 3.15 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [2] - The Ministry of Water Resources reports that China's water infrastructure investment is expected to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, significantly higher than the previous plan [2] Group 3 - State-owned enterprises report total revenue of 5.396 trillion yuan from January to August, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2%, while profits decreased by 2.7% [3] - The total social logistics volume in China reached 229.4 trillion yuan from January to August, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [3] Group 4 - A-shares experience a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.9% to 3862.53 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 2.05% [3] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index also sees a rise of 1.89%, driven by strong performances in brokerage stocks and the non-ferrous metals sector [3] Group 5 - Over 60% of private equity firms plan to maintain high positions in the market, indicating positive expectations for the post-holiday market [4] - The capital market shows a strong stance against financial fraud, with penalties for such activities reaching 41.4 billion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4] Group 6 - The mechanical industry aims for an average annual revenue growth rate of 3.5% from 2025 to 2026, targeting over 1 trillion yuan in revenue [5] - Real estate companies in Beijing accelerate project launches, with 25 pre-sale permits issued in September, providing nearly 6000 housing units [5] Group 7 - Xiaomi's 17 series is expected to see a significant drop in total shipments by 20% due to lower-than-expected demand [6] - JD.com announces the start of its Double 11 shopping festival, offering significant discounts to consumers [6] Group 8 - TSMC denies any negotiations regarding potential investments or collaborations with Intel [7] - OpenAI launches a new "instant checkout" feature, allowing users to purchase products directly through ChatGPT [7] Group 9 - Toyota reports global sales of 845,000 vehicles in August, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [8] - Stellantis faces executive turnover, with the CFO set to leave the company amid significant layoffs in Italy [8] Group 10 - The U.S. Treasury's gold reserves exceed $1 trillion, driven by rising gold prices, which could provide significant funding opportunities [10] - The Federal Reserve expresses concerns about inflation remaining above target levels, impacting future monetary policy decisions [10] Group 11 - The U.S. stock market shows slight gains, with the Dow Jones up by 0.15% and the S&P 500 by 0.26%, driven by strong performances from tech stocks [11] - European stock indices also see minor increases, reflecting optimism regarding policy expectations and corporate earnings [11] Group 12 - The domestic bond market shows weakness, particularly in long-term government bonds, with a notable rise in yields [12] - International precious metals futures see an increase, with gold prices reaching historical highs amid rising market uncertainty [12]

与此同时，部分私募也提醒投资者关注假期期间外围市场或出现的扰动情况。在投资主线上，大部分私 募看好科技成长方向，另一些私募则选择押注新能源、房地产产业链的估值修复。 (原标题：普遍看好节后行情逾六成私募选择重仓过节) 人民财讯9月30日电，国庆长假临近，私募基金的仓位选择及其对节后行情的研判，备受市场关注。私 募排排网最新调查结果显示，六成以上私募选择重仓甚至满仓过节，并普遍看好行情趋势在节后延续， 私募整体仓位指数也升至了年内新高。 ...

Group 1 - Over 65% of private equity funds prefer to hold heavy positions or fully invested during the holiday, indicating a positive outlook for the market post-holiday [3][4] - The overall private equity position index reached a new high for the year at 78.41%, reflecting a trend of increasing positions before the holiday [4][5] - The optimism is supported by recent market rebounds, favorable policy environments, and the emergence of structural opportunities in sectors like AI and semiconductors [4][6] Group 2 - 70.19% of private equity funds are optimistic about the market's performance after the holiday, expecting a gradual recovery driven by policy and capital [5][6] - A balanced market style is anticipated post-holiday, with 62.50% of private equity funds expecting a rotation among technology growth, value blue chips, and white horse stocks [5][6] - The focus on technology growth is strong, with 59.62% of private equity funds favoring sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6][7] Group 3 - The market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern, with structural opportunities remaining the primary focus as the economy has not yet shown signs of a turning point [7][8] - The dynamic balance between growth and value styles is highlighted, with technology sectors attracting leveraged funds while value sectors like banks provide stability [8][9] - Historical data shows that A-share market has a more than 70% probability of rising after the National Day holiday, suggesting potential liquidity support for the fourth quarter [8][9]