文 ｜ 韦昕澄 崔嵘 李翀 贾天楚 美国2月CPI增速全面低于预期和前值，呈现"表里如一"的温和特征，反映了美国通胀继续降温的 趋势。然而，2月CPI并未反映美国加征2 5%钢铝产品关税和第二轮对华加征1 0%关税的通胀影 响，难以打消市场对于美国通胀前景的隐忧，在对等关税详情揭晓前更给人以"暴风雨前的宁静"之 感。我们预计美国总体CPI同比在4月前仍能因基数效应而继续下降、但下半年存在反弹隐忧，美 股不必急于"抄底"，短期在通胀反弹前不妨留意美债的交易机会。 美国2月通胀增速全面低于预期和前值，总体CPI环比升0 . 2%（前值0 . 5%），核心CPI环比升 0 . 2%（前值0 . 4%），总体CPI同比升2 . 8%（前值3 . 0%），核心CPI同比升3 . 1%（前值3 . 3%）， 四个读数都各低于预期0 . 1 p p t。 ▍ 本份CPI报告呈现"表里如一"的温和特征，显示美国通胀继续降温之势。 总体CPI同比重回" 2 "字头，核心CPI同比是2 0 2 1年4月以来最低值，商品CPI环比和服务CPI环比 都较前值回落，除住宅外核心服务CPI同比涨幅亦缩窄至3 . 9%，这些读数都反映了美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has been fluctuating around the $2900 per ounce mark, with potential to reach $3000 per ounce, driven by global economic and political uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased its gold reserves for four consecutive months since November 2024, holding 2289.53 tons as of February 2025, with a modest increase of 4.98 tons in February [3][4]. - The PBOC's gold purchases are influenced by the need to optimize international reserve structure, as the gold reserve proportion in China's official reserves is only 5.5%, significantly lower than the global average of around 15% [4][6]. - Other central banks globally are also showing interest in gold purchases, although the pace has slowed, with a net purchase of 18 tons in January 2025, down from the previous year [6][7]. Group 2: Future Gold Price Predictions - Analysts predict that the international gold price may reach a new high of $3100 per ounce within the year, supported by ongoing global uncertainties and expected inflows into overseas gold ETFs [2][8]. - The current fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to U.S. economic policy uncertainties and potential recession risks, with short-term price movements expected between $2870 and $2950 per ounce [8][9]. - Long-term investment in gold is considered valuable due to its low correlation with other assets and the protective cushion provided by fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate [10].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.41% at 3379.83 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose 0.33% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.19%[1] - The Hang Seng Index fell slightly by 0.01% to 23782.14 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index up 1.39% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up 0.35%[1] - The total market turnover in Hong Kong was 3070.34 million HKD[1] Economic Policies - The U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum, with no exemptions for trade partners[3] - Ukraine is prepared to accept a U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire with Russia, contingent on military aid and intelligence sharing[3][8] Corporate Developments - Avatr Technology, a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer, plans to raise 7.8 billion HKD through a Hong Kong IPO, with a potential launch in May[4] - China National Railway plans to issue 30 billion RMB in bonds, which was oversubscribed by 0.68 times[9] Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 151,000 in February, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%[11] - China's PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.2% in February, while CPI fell by 0.7%[11] Market Sentiment - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers indicated a nearly 50% chance of a recession in the U.S. this year due to various policy measures undermining confidence[8]

Employment Data - In February, the U.S. added 151,000 non-farm jobs, slightly below the expected 160,000, with the previous two months' figures revised down by 2,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1%, while hourly wages increased by 0.3% month-on-month, down from 0.5%[2] - The employment diffusion index improved from 52.4 to 58.4, indicating a slight recovery in job expansion despite sector-specific weaknesses[2] Economic Outlook - The mixed economic data has alleviated some recession fears, but the "tight fiscal" approach from the Trump administration is impacting market sentiment negatively[3] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 3.51% to 103.84, marking its lowest level since November 2022, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices dropped by 3.1% and 3.45%, respectively[3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model revised its Q1 2025 GDP growth forecast down from -1.48% to -2.41%[3] Sector Analysis - Job losses were concentrated in specific sectors, with the federal government losing 10,000 jobs and leisure and hospitality losing 16,000, primarily due to adverse weather conditions[2] - The service sector showed resilience, with the service PMI at 53.5, exceeding expectations of 52.5, while manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3, below the expected 50.8[3] Fiscal Policy Impact - The divergence between U.S. "tight fiscal" policies and the Eurozone's "fiscal easing" narrative is creating volatility in the markets, particularly affecting U.S. equities[5] - The expectation of limited room for substantial cuts in the U.S. fiscal deficit is influencing market sentiment and risk assets negatively[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected policy shifts from Trump, excessive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve leading to inflationary pressures, and prolonged high-interest rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[6]

Economic Outlook - Recent U.S. economic data has shown persistent weakness, leading to a significant downgrade of Q1 2025 GDP growth forecast to a negative range by the Federal Reserve model[1] - The market's recession narrative has resurfaced, with expectations for interest rate cuts rising sharply due to economic concerns and tariff impacts[1] Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.94%, while U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply, with the 10-year yield down 22 basis points to 4.21% and the 2-year yield down 21 basis points to 3.99%[1] - Major stock indices experienced declines, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Hang Seng Index dropping by 0.98%, 3.47%, and 2.29% respectively[1] Inflation and Consumer Confidence - The January PCE inflation data met expectations, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.5% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%[1] - The Consumer Confidence Index for February recorded a low of 98.3, the lowest since June 2024, indicating rising recession expectations among consumers[1] Tariff Policy Impact - Trump's tariff policies have escalated, including a new 10% tariff on China, which has heightened market uncertainty and risk aversion[2] - The House of Representatives passed a budget resolution for FY2025, potentially increasing the deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, which may complicate future fiscal policies[2] Employment Projections - The consensus among analysts is for an addition of 160,000 non-farm jobs in February, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.0%[1] - Concerns exist regarding the impact of immigration policies on job growth, which may lead to short-term employment disruptions[1]