（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 创业板人工智能ETF国泰（159388）跟踪的是创业板人工智能指数（970070），单日涨跌幅限制达 20%，该指数从创业板市场中选取涉及人工智能技术及相关应用领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，涵 盖机器学习、智能硬件、大数据处理等行业，以反映创业板中人工智能相关上市公司证券的整体表现， 具有较高的成长性和创新性特征。 有券商指出，2026年行业配置视角要更加"以我为主"，通过科技自立自强巩固国家安全。从AI产业趋势 角度，看好国产算力及制造产业链，关注AI电力建设、AI眼镜新品、人形机器人和ToB端AI应用。同 时，需重视"十五五"规划相关的具身智能、6G等领域。分析师认为，一方面需突破产业围堵和技术封 锁，通过技术攻关、科技创新在AI革命中掌握主动权，提升产业链安全水平、实现核心环节自主可 控。 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market opened high but closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.15%, Shenzhen Component down 0.17%, and ChiNext down 0.4% [1] - A total of 3,265 stocks rose, 60 stocks hit the daily limit, and 2,044 stocks fell, with a trading volume of 1.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 142.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - The oil and gas sector saw significant gains, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit, including major players like China Petroleum and China Petrochemical [5][6] - The commercial aerospace sector continued to rebound, with stocks like Jieli Rigging and Boyun New Materials seeing substantial increases [3][4] - The superhard materials sector also experienced an upward trend, with stocks such as Yujing Co. and Boyun New Materials reaching their daily limits [8][9] - Conversely, the precious metals sector faced a downturn, with significant declines in stocks like Xiaocheng Technology and Western Gold [11][12] Key Stock Movements - Notable gainers in the commercial aerospace sector included: - Boyun New Materials: 9.97% increase, market cap of 7.5 billion yuan [4] - Superjet Co.: 9.63% increase, market cap of 26.6 billion yuan [4] - In the oil sector, notable performers included: - China Petroleum: 1.30% increase, market cap of 1,805.1 billion yuan [6] - Blue Flame Holdings: 10.05% increase, market cap of 7.8 billion yuan [6] - In the superhard materials sector, key stocks included: - Yujing Co.: 10.00% increase, market cap of 12.4 billion yuan [9] - Boyun New Materials: 9.97% increase, market cap of 7.5 billion yuan [9] Market Influences - The Brent crude oil price rose to $64.92 per barrel, up 5.85% from earlier in the month, with expectations that OPEC+ supply risks will keep prices above $60 [6][7] - The International Energy Agency projected a daily increase in global oil demand of 930,000 barrels by 2026, higher than previous estimates [7]

Market Overview - On January 22, the A-share market opened high but closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.15%, Shenzhen Component down 0.17%, and ChiNext down 0.4% [2] - A total of 3,265 stocks rose, 60 stocks hit the daily limit, and 2,044 stocks fell, with a trading volume of 1.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 142.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [3] Sector Performance - The oil and gas, aerospace military, superhard materials, coal, and photovoltaic sectors saw significant gains, while the precious metals and semiconductor equipment sectors experienced notable declines [3] - The superhard materials sector showed a strong upward trend, with stocks like Yujing Co. and Boyun New Materials hitting the daily limit [14] - The precious metals sector faced a downturn, with significant declines in stocks such as Western Gold and Xiaocheng Technology, which fell over 5% [18][20] Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector continued to recover, with stocks like Jili Rigging and Boyun New Materials seeing substantial gains [6] - Recent updates from companies like Xinghe Power and Blue Arrow Aerospace regarding their IPO progress have contributed to the positive sentiment in this sector [8] Oil and Gas Sector - The oil sector experienced a rapid increase, with major companies like PetroChina and Sinopec showing notable gains [10] - As of January 22, the Brent crude oil price was reported at $64.92 per barrel, up 5.85% from the beginning of the month [11] Superhard Materials Sector - The superhard materials sector is benefiting from advancements in artificial intelligence and related technologies, with expectations of significant growth in the industry [16] - The sector is projected to see a rise in demand, particularly for products related to artificial intelligence and robotics [14] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector is undergoing a correction after previous gains, with gold prices fluctuating due to geopolitical factors and market sentiment [20] - The current price of gold has seen a decline, with spot gold trading around $4,787.966 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 1% drop [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous improvement of the stock market in 2026 is the result of the combined effects of four factors: the resonance of the technology cycle, the release of policy dividends, the recovery of the economy, and the return of overseas funds. The market has gradually shifted from being dominated by valuation expansion to a new stage driven by earnings. It is expected that the supply - side reform will continue in 2026, pushing up the prices of commodities and driving up resource - based stocks. Under the strategic guidance of the "15th Five - Year Plan", with the continuous release of policy effects, the further enhancement of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas funds allocating Chinese assets, the stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF contracts for different terms increased, with the daily increase ranging from 0.35% to 0.49%. The trading volume of the IF next - month contract was 74,116.00, and the open interest decreased by 6,123.00 [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The prices of IH contracts showed mixed trends, with the daily change ranging from - 0.07% to 0.08%. The trading volume of the IH next - month contract was 34,230.00, and the open interest increased by 1,743.00 [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The prices of IC contracts increased significantly, with the daily increase ranging from 1.79% to 2.03%. The trading volume of the IC next - month contract was 101,832.00, and the open interest decreased by 4,994.00 [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The prices of IM contracts also increased, with the daily increase ranging from 1.55% to 1.81%. The trading volume of the IM next - month contract was 133,027.00, and the open interest decreased by 6,631.00 [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, with the current values of - 1.40, 3.80, - 2.20, and - 29.00 respectively [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300 index increased by 0.09%, the SSE 50 index decreased by 0.11%, the CSI 500 index increased by 1.12%, and the CSI 1000 index increased by 0.79% [1]. - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, the raw materials industry increased by 1.51%, the information technology industry increased by 2.91%, while the energy industry decreased by 0.66%, the optional consumption industry decreased by 0.88%, the main consumption industry decreased by 1.61%, the pharmaceutical and healthcare industry decreased by 0.67%, the real estate and finance industry decreased by 1.27%, and the public utilities industry decreased by 1.25% [1]. 3.3 Basis between Futures and Spot - The basis between futures and spot for different contracts changed. For example, the basis of the IF current - month contract to the CSI 300 index increased from - 8.28 to 1.13 [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.08%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.70%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.54% [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.37%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by 0.41%, the S&P 500 increased by 1.16%, and the DAX Index decreased by 0.51% [1]. 3.5 Macro Information - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development stated that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, efforts will be made to promote the construction of "good houses" and build a new real - estate development model, and promote the spot - sale system for commercial housing [2]. - The US and NATO reached an agreement framework on the Greenland issue, and the US will not implement the originally planned tariff measures, which led to a sharp rise in US stocks and a decline in spot silver [2]. - The EU will hold an emergency summit, and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged the EU to avoid protectionism and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [2]. - Five departments including the Ministry of Finance announced the establishment of new duty - free shops at 41 ports, and residents entering from Macau can purchase duty - free goods worth up to 15,000 RMB at the Hengqin Port [2]. - Three departments including the Ministry of Finance extended the tax policies for innovative enterprise CDRs until December 31, 2027, with preferential tax policies for individual investors and public funds [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - China's first offshore liquid rocket launch and recovery test platform will be put into use, and a mainstream commercial liquid rocket will conduct a launch and recovery test around the Spring Festival [2]. - In 2025, China's commercial space industry developed rapidly, with 50 launches accounting for 54% of the total number of space launches in the country, including 25 launches of commercial launch vehicles. A total of 311 commercial satellites were put into orbit, accounting for 84% of the total number of satellites put into orbit in the country [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology expects that the core scale of China's artificial intelligence industry will exceed 1.2 trillion yuan in 2025, with over 330 humanoid robot products released, and has launched the second - stage technology test of 6G. It will strengthen the support of the national artificial intelligence industry investment fund for humanoid robots [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised and issued two review requirements to strengthen the access management of road motor vehicle production enterprises and products [2]. 3.7 Stock Index Views - US stock indexes rose. In the previous trading day, stock indexes were divided, with the non - ferrous metals sector leading the rise and the banking sector leading the decline. The market turnover was 2.62 trillion yuan. On January 20, the margin trading balance decreased by 13.912 billion yuan to 2.69202 trillion yuan [2].

每经记者｜刘艳美 每经编辑｜杨欢 1月21日，杭州市十四届人大六次会议开幕。大会听取和审议了杭州市人民政府工作报告。报告提出"十五五"杭州发展主要目 标： 基本建成世界一流的社会主义现代化国际大都市取得决定性进展，在全省高质量发展建设共同富裕示范区中发挥龙头领跑示范 带动作用。 到2030年，地区生产总值力争迈上3万亿元新台阶，人均地区生产总值突破3万美元，达到发达经济体水平。 #动向 解读：GDP是衡量城市经济规模、发展水平和综合实力的核心指标。目前，我国已有上海、北京、深圳、重庆、广州5座城市 GDP突破3万亿元，苏州、成都、杭州和武汉则均处在2万亿量级，2024年GDP分别为2.67万亿元、2.35万亿元、2.19万亿元及 2.11万亿元。 包括杭州在内，四座城市均已显示出冲击"3万亿俱乐部"的雄心。 早在2024年初，苏州就提出用3年左右时间，推动GDP迈上3万亿台阶,意味着"冲线"时间大概率在2026年。 不久前召开的武汉市委经济工作会议提出，奋力实现2030年经济总量突破3万亿元；成都"十五五"规划建议则提出，到2030年 GDP超过3.2万亿元。 放眼全球，一座城市的GDP突破3万亿元，其经济总 ...

Group 1: Technology Developments - DeepSeek has updated its GitHub repository, revealing a new model architecture "MODEL1," which is expected to be more efficient and suitable for edge devices compared to its predecessor DeepSeek-V3.2 [2] - Longji Technology announced significant progress in Co-packaged Optics (CPO) technology, with successful customer sample deliveries and testing, addressing the growing demand for high-bandwidth, low-latency optical interconnects [11] - Shanghai Yiyou Intelligent Control Technology has launched its first automated production line for robot joints in Zhangjiang, aiming to meet the increasing demand and reduce costs for humanoid robots [10] Group 2: Financial Performance and Projections - Moole Technology expects a net loss of 950 million to 1.06 billion yuan for 2025, despite launching a leading GPU product and experiencing revenue growth due to the AI industry's expansion [17] - Demingli anticipates a net profit of 650 million to 800 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 85.42% to 128.21%, driven by advancements in storage solutions and AI demand [18] - Tianfu Communication projects a net profit of 1.881 billion to 2.150 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a growth of 40% to 60% due to the accelerating AI industry and global data center construction [19] Group 3: Regulatory and Market Responses - The European Union plans to phase out "high-risk suppliers" in critical sectors, interpreted as targeting Chinese tech firms like Huawei, which has expressed concerns over the fairness of such regulations [2] - Pinduoduo was fined 100,000 yuan for failing to report tax information as required, highlighting regulatory scrutiny on internet platform companies [4] - Zhiyu Technology announced a temporary limit on the sale of its GLM Coding Plan due to high demand and resource constraints, reducing daily sales to 20% of current levels [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of global financial and commodity markets, important domestic and foreign macro - economic news, and the latest developments in various industries, offering a multi - faceted view of the current economic and market landscape [3][7][26] 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Market Trends - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures rising 1.48% to $4836.20 per ounce and COMEX silver futures falling 1.78% to $92.95 per ounce [4] - U.S. oil and Brent oil futures both rose, with U.S. oil up 0.51% to $60.67 per barrel and Brent oil up 0.61% to $64.58 per barrel [5] - Most London base metals rose, such as LME tin up 3.81% to $51295.0 per ton and LME nickel up 2.05% to $17975.0 per ton [5] Important News Macroeconomic News - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to U.S. trade negotiation intentions, emphasizing the implementation of the consensus between the two heads of state [8] - China's Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development plans to stabilize the real estate market and support reasonable housing needs [8] - U.S. President Trump stated non - use of force for Greenland and reached a cooperation framework with NATO on Greenland, withdrawing tariff threats to 8 European countries [8] - The U.S. Supreme Court showed caution on Trump's attempt to fire a Fed governor, worrying about the impact on the Fed's independence and financial markets [9] Energy and Chemical Futures - The IEA raised the forecast of global oil demand growth but warned of supply exceeding demand, with demand increasing from 860,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day [12] - UAE's Fujairah Port's refined oil inventory increased to 21.357 million barrels in the week ending January 19, 2026 [12] - Japan's commercial crude oil and refined oil inventories decreased, and the refinery's average operating rate dropped to 89.7% [13] Metal Futures - In January, multiple leading polysilicon companies plan to cut production, and the market is expected to be in a weak - balance stalemate [15] - The Democratic Republic of the Congo submitted a short - list of state - owned mineral assets to the U.S. for investment evaluation [16] - Rio Tinto's bauxite production in Q4 2025 was stable, with annual production reaching 62.4 million tons, a 6% year - on - year increase [18] - In November 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus, and Rio Tinto will cut 40% of the production of its Yarwun alumina refinery in 2026 [18][19] Black - Series Futures - As of the week ending January 21, national production of black - series futures decreased, social inventory increased, and apparent demand decreased [21] - BHP's iron ore production in Q4 2025 increased seasonally, with annual output in Western Australia reaching 292 million tons, a 0.8% year - on - year increase [21] - Handan will launch a Level Ⅱ emergency response for heavy pollution weather starting from January 22 [23] Agricultural Product Futures - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects February's crude palm oil price to fluctuate between 4000 - 4300 ringgit per ton [25] - From January 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.06% compared to the same period last month [25] - Brazil's sugar production in the second half of December 2025 decreased by 14.93% year - on - year, while ethanol production increased by 14.91% [25] Financial Markets Finance - A - shares fluctuated higher on Wednesday, with gold stocks surging, and the market turnover decreased to 2.62 trillion yuan [27] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.37%, and southbound funds had a net purchase of 13.93 billion Hong Kong dollars [27] - The number of Hong Kong IPO - queuing companies exceeded 350 [28] - Many equity funds in 2025 had their scales doubled, and fund managers are optimistic about the 2026 A - share market [28] - "Top - flow" fund managers adjusted their positions in Q4 2025, with different buying and selling operations [28] - "Guotou Silver LOF" will be suspended on January 22, and further measures may be taken if the premium does not decline [30] - Cheung Kong responded to the spin - off rumor, stating that no decision has been made [30] Industry - China's first offshore liquid rocket launch and recovery test platform will be put into use around February 5 [31] - In 2025, China's commercial space industry developed rapidly, with 50 launches and 311 satellites put into orbit [31] - In 2025, China's AI core industry scale is expected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan, and the 6G second - stage technology test has been launched [31] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised two review requirements for road motor vehicles [31] - By the end of December 2025, China's electric vehicle charging facilities exceeded 20 million [32] - The national electronic pricing scale intelligent measurement supervision platform has started trial operation [34] - China's 35,000 - ton heavy - haul train completed the world's first automatic formation driving test [35] - 20 cities in Guangdong adjusted the commercial housing mortgage policy, with the minimum down - payment ratio set at 30% [36] - Goldman Sachs expects the PCB and CCL industries to enter a super - cycle in 2026, with market growth of 113% and 142% respectively [36] Overseas - Russian President Putin will meet with a U.S. presidential envoy on January 22 and responded to Trump's remarks on Greenland [37] - Most economists expect the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged this quarter and may cut rates at least twice later this year [37] - In December 2025, the number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan decreased by 45.3% year - on - year, and Japan may see a 3% decline in inbound tourists in 2026 [39] - Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet emphasized the importance of cracking down on online fraud [39] International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks rose across the board, with the Dow up 1.21%, the S&P 500 up 1.16%, and the Nasdaq up 1.18% [40] - European stocks closed mixed, with the German DAX down 0.51% and the French CAC40 up 0.08% [41] - Most Asia - Pacific stocks closed lower, except for the South Korean Composite Index, which reached a record high [41] - SpaceX is accelerating its listing preparation to deploy AI data centers in space [41] - Berkshire may "fully" reduce its stake in Kraft Heinz [41] Commodities - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with gold rising and silver falling [43] - U.S. and Brent oil futures rose due to supply concerns and increased demand expectations [43] - Most London base metals rose, with tin and nickel leading the gains [43] Bonds - China's bond market was strong, with long - term bond yields falling and bond futures rising [44] - Vanke's 1.1 - billion - yuan bond "21 Vanke 02" was successfully extended [44] - The U.S. national debt increased rapidly, and the yields of U.S. bonds fell across the board [44][46] - Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group focused on Japanese bonds, and Japanese long - term bond yields fell [46] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar depreciated, and the U.S. dollar index rose [47] - South Korea's President expects the won to appreciate in the next month, but the exchange rate is affected by the yen [47] Upcoming Data and Events - Multiple important economic data from various countries will be released, including GDP, trade balance, and unemployment rate [49] - There are various events such as central bank meetings, press conferences, and corporate earnings reports [51]

Market Overview - On January 22, A-shares opened higher across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 9.13 points (0.22%) to 4126.07 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 58.51 points (0.41%) to 14313.63 points, and the CSI 300 Index increasing by 18.69 points (0.4%) to 4741.75 points [1] - The storage chip concept continued to show strength, with Yingfang Micro achieving a three-day limit-up, and Langke Technology opening over 11% higher [1] - Gold concept stocks mostly retreated, with Xiaocheng Technology down over 7% and Shengda Resources down over 6% [1] Company News - Tianfu Communication expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.881 billion to 2.150 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40% to 60%, driven by the growth in demand for high-speed optical devices due to the acceleration of the AI industry and global data center construction [2] - Demingli forecasts a net profit of 650 million to 800 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 85.42% to 128.21% [2] - Moore Threads anticipates 2025 revenue between 1.45 billion and 1.52 billion yuan, a growth of 230.70% to 246.67% year-on-year, but expects a net loss of 950 million to 1.06 billion yuan, narrowing the loss by 34.50% to 41.30% compared to the previous year [2] - Baiwei Storage's advanced packaging project is progressing well, with expected monthly production capacity reaching 5,000 wafers by the end of 2026 and 10,000 wafers by the end of 2027, contributing to revenue starting in late 2026 [2] Additional Company Updates - Jin'an Guoji expects a net profit of 280 million to 360 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 655.53% to 871.40% [3] - Tengjing Technology received a purchase order worth 12.8 million USD (approximately 89.15 million yuan) from a client, which is expected to positively impact its operating performance [3] - Dajin Heavy Industry forecasts a net profit of 1.05 billion to 1.2 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 121.58% to 153.23% [3] - Juhua Co. expects a net profit of 3.54 billion to 3.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80% to 101% [3] Industry Trends - Intel and AMD plan to raise server CPU prices by 10% to 15% to address supply-demand imbalances, with their server CPU capacities for 2026 nearly sold out [6] - TSMC is increasing investment in advanced packaging technology, with plans to upgrade existing facilities and expand production capacity significantly by the end of 2027 [7] - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing price increases, with Trina Solar raising its guidance prices for distributed photovoltaic modules by 0.03 yuan/W, marking the third price adjustment since the beginning of 2026 [11] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that China's 6G research has completed the first phase of technical testing, with over 300 key technology reserves established [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, different futures varieties are classified into trend - bearish, oscillating - bearish, oscillating, oscillating - bullish, and trend - bullish categories. For example, eggs, red dates, and live pigs are in the oscillating - bearish category; soda ash, glass, and sugar are in the oscillating category; synthetic rubber, lithium carbonate, and 30 - year government bonds are in the oscillating - bullish category [5]. - Based on quantitative indicators, futures varieties are divided into bearish, oscillating, and bullish categories. For instance, Shanghai gold, soybean No. 2, and soybean oil are in the bearish category; rebar, coking coal, and soybean No. 1 are in the oscillating category; Shanghai copper, manganese - silicon, and rubber are in the bullish category [9]. - Various macro - economic events have impacts on the financial market. For example, the agreement on Greenland by the US President Trump leads to a rise in US stocks and a fall in spot silver; the speech of NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun on AI infrastructure construction has implications for related industries; the EU's new network security policy and China's response also affect the market [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term operations should focus on volume and price, and profit - taking operations can be considered. The A - share market shows an oscillating upward trend, but if there is no further increase in volume and a reverse - enveloping negative line is not formed, the stock index may enter an adjustment phase [16][17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ultra - long - end may continue to rebound due to the decline in risk appetite. The short - end is supported by the capital market, and the overall idea of the central bank is still to expand credit, with bond yields remaining steep [18]. 3.2 Black - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate and decline in the short term. In the medium term, the domestic mine operating rate is capped, and the supply - demand contradiction may improve during the Spring Festival [20]. - **Ferroalloys**: For silicon - iron, it is recommended to go long on dips in the medium term as there is a small supply gap. For manganese - silicon, it is suggested to hold short positions from previous high levels and not to enter new single - sided positions [21]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: It is advisable to wait and see for now. For soda ash, focus on the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new capacity production. For glass, pay attention to the implementation of production line changes and the linkage between the spot and futures markets [22]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Shanghai Lead**: It is recommended to wait and see, and hold previous short positions. The lead inventory is increasing, and the consumption is poor, but there may be some support if the price continues to decline [24]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate strongly, with demand improving and supply being restricted [25]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is under pressure at the upper limit and oscillates, waiting for opportunities to sell out - of - the - money call options. Polysilicon may continue to price the rectification of anti - involution and oscillate weakly [26]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: It is in a short - term consolidation state, and short - term trading is recommended. The supply is currently loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday restocking and the decline in开工 rates [28][29]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar market is in a season of high supply and demand, and it is recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - price range. The global sugar supply is in surplus, and the domestic market is under supply pressure [30][31]. - **Eggs**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the pre - holiday spot price of eggs may weaken. The futures of the 02 - 03 contracts are for the post - Spring Festival off - season, with limited upside space. The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline, and the far - month contracts may weaken [32][33]. - **Apples**: The futures may run strongly. The current apple market is in a game between supply support and demand constraints, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [34][35]. - **Corn**: The price has large differences in the market, and short - term trading is recommended. The price is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policy grain release, and import supplements, and is likely to oscillate within a range [36]. - **Red Dates**: It is recommended to closely monitor the performance of the consumer market during the peak season, and currently, the market is expected to oscillate weakly [37]. - **Live Pigs**: The market sentiment has peaked, and the spot price is likely to decline. It is advisable to consider shorting near - month contracts on rallies [38]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East support the price, but the supply surplus is still severe. As the geopolitical premium fades, the price may weaken, and attention should be paid to Iran's actions [40]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price follows the trend of crude oil, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved. The short - term trading focus is on the impact of geopolitically - influenced crude oil prices [41]. - **Plastics**: Polyolefins have large supply pressure and weak demand, but the upstream losses may support a small - scale rebound. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [42]. - **Rubber**: The pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises and the upcoming suspension of production in overseas producing areas may support the price. It is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips [43]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It may oscillate strongly due to the good fundamentals of butadiene. It is recommended to go long on dips or sell put options [44]. - **Methanol**: The short - term inventory is decreasing, but there is still a risk of inventory accumulation at the end of the month. In the long term, the fundamentals are improving, and it is advisable to consider a slightly long - position configuration for far - month contracts after a pullback [46]. - **Caustic Soda**: The operating rate and inventory are high, and the price of liquid chlorine is firm, but the support from the downstream of liquid chlorine is uncertain. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [47]. - **Asphalt**: The price follows the trend of crude oil and may oscillate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the change in the premium of raw materials [48]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The market is currently strong due to sentiment and supply disruptions, but the expectation of weakening demand is increasing. It is advisable to consider positive spreads between the May and September contracts of PX and PTA on dips [49]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The geopolitical situation in Iran has eased, and the import cost provides support. In the short term, the downside space is limited, but in the long term, it is advisable to consider going short with a light position [50]. - **Pulp**: The spot market trading sentiment has weakened, and the price has corrected. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to international and macro factors [52]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakly oscillating, and the spot price has temporarily stabilized. The market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [53]. - **Urea**: The spot market trading atmosphere has worsened in the short term, but the market is still relatively optimistic about the future. It remains to be seen whether the futures can maintain a strong trend before the Spring Festival [54].

Core Insights - The Chinese government aims for a 5.9% year-on-year growth in industrial added value by 2025, with the manufacturing sector expected to maintain its position as the world's largest for 16 consecutive years [1][2] - The industrial and information technology sectors are projected to contribute over 40% to economic growth, reinforcing their role as a stabilizing force in the economy [1] Group 1: Industrial Growth - The added value of major equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing is expected to grow by 9.2% and 9.4% year-on-year, respectively, outpacing overall industrial growth by 3.3 and 3.5 percentage points [1] - The government emphasizes the importance of supporting industrial provinces to drive stable industrial economic growth [1] Group 2: Emerging Industries - Significant breakthroughs in major equipment such as ultra-large diameter shield machines and heavy-duty gas turbines are noted, with artificial intelligence providing strong momentum for industrial growth [1] - The first phase of 6G technology trials has resulted in over 300 key technology reserves, indicating a focus on nurturing emerging pillar industries [1] Group 3: Future Industries and SMEs - The government plans to implement strategic major technology projects and support the establishment of future industry pilot zones, aiming to create a competitive environment for future industries nationwide [2] - The competitive ecosystem for key sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics continues to improve, with 5G and gigabit optical networks integrated into 91 out of 97 national economic categories [2] - Over 140,000 specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have been cultivated, with high-tech enterprises reaching 504,000 [2] Group 4: Policy and Support for SMEs - A plan to promote SME development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period has been established, focusing on ensuring timely payments to SMEs and preventing new debts [2] - The government aims to revise SME classification standards to enhance the precision and effectiveness of policy support [2]