Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July 2025, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month and remained flat year-on-year at 0.0% due to significant pressure from food prices[2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose to 0.8%, the highest in 17 months, indicating effective domestic demand policies[2] - Vegetable prices saw a significant decline due to high base effects from the previous year, while pork prices continued to drop due to weak terminal demand[2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In July 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and by 0.2% month-on-month, marking a continued decline in the mining and raw material processing industries[2] - The coal mining and oil extraction sectors were the largest contributors to the PPI decline, with mining industries showing a year-on-year drop of 14.0%[2] - The report anticipates a slight recovery in PPI in August, projecting a year-on-year rate around -3%, influenced by high base effects from the previous year[2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The report suggests that while CPI may rise above 0 in August, energy prices remain a significant constraint on overall inflation recovery[2] - The ongoing weak demand in the mid and downstream sectors is expected to limit the positive impact of anti-involution policies on PPI[2] - The effectiveness of domestic policies in stimulating demand will be crucial for any significant recovery in PPI throughout the year[2]

Group 1: CPI and PPI Performance - July CPI year-on-year growth remained at 0%, against expectations of -0.1% and a previous value of +0.1%[3] - July PPI year-on-year remained at -3.6%, matching the previous value and slightly worse than the expected -3.4%[3] - Core CPI in July increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month above seasonal levels[6] Group 2: Price Trends - Food CPI month-on-month decline narrowed, with a 0.2% increase to -0.2%[5] - Prices of fresh vegetables and pork rebounded, with fresh vegetable CPI increasing by 0.6% month-on-month to +1.3%[16] - Physical consumption prices outperformed service consumption prices, with non-food CPI rising by 0.5% month-on-month[6] Group 3: Future Inflation Predictions - August CPI is expected to decline year-on-year to around -0.3%, with a month-on-month increase of approximately 0.1%[30] - PPI is anticipated to rise in August, with projections indicating a year-on-year increase due to base effects and expectations of price recovery[31] - The overall average CPI for 2025 is projected to be around 0% year-on-year, while PPI is expected to average between -2% and -3%[33] Group 4: Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected policy changes and significant fluctuations in commodity prices[36]

Inflation Data Summary - On August 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released July inflation data: CPI year-on-year at 0%, previous value 0.1%, expected -0.1%, month-on-month 0.4%; PPI year-on-year at -3.6%, previous value -3.6%, expected -3.4%, month-on-month -0.2%[8]. - The weak PPI performance is attributed to low capacity utilization in mid and downstream sectors, which hinders price transmission from upstream to downstream[1][2][4]. - July PPI continued to decline, with a month-on-month change of -0.2%, not meeting market expectations of -3.4%[9][13]. - The contribution of commodity prices to PPI was estimated at 0.1% month-on-month, despite some recovery in coal and steel prices[1][9]. CPI Insights - Core CPI in July rose to its highest level in 1.5 years, driven by demand recovery and the end of commodity subsidies, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%[21]. - Food CPI decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, with fresh vegetable prices dropping by 7.6% and fresh fruit prices increasing by 2.8%[30][43]. - The core service CPI remained stable at 0.5% year-on-year, with significant increases in travel-related costs, such as airfares rising by 17.9% month-on-month[27]. Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to boost commodity prices, but excess supply in mid and downstream sectors may limit price transmission from upstream, keeping inflation weak throughout the year[4][33]. - Core commodity CPI may remain subdued due to pressure from downstream PPI and abundant agricultural supply, leading to only moderate improvements in CPI[4][33].

Inflation Data Summary - In July 2025, the CPI year-on-year changed from a 0.1% increase to flat, outperforming the Wind consensus expectation of -0.12%[2] - The food price index saw a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, while non-food prices increased by 0.3%[2] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.4%, slightly above the ten-year average increase of 0.34%[2] Food Price Dynamics - The year-on-year decline in fresh vegetable prices expanded to 7.6%, significantly impacting the CPI[2] - Pork prices saw a year-on-year decline of 9.5%, while beef prices increased by 3.6%[2] - The average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables continued to decline year-on-year in early August 2025[2] Non-Food Price Trends - Non-food prices increased by 0.3% year-on-year, with durable goods prices rising due to the end of promotional activities[3] - Transportation fuel prices decreased by 9% year-on-year, influenced by international oil price fluctuations[3] - Service prices rose by 0.5% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the previous month[3] PPI Insights - The PPI year-on-year decline remained at -3.6%, with production materials down 4.3% and living materials down 1.6%[4] - The PPI month-on-month decreased by 0.2%, with production materials showing a smaller decline than living materials[4] - The price of oil and gas extraction increased by 3.0%, while electronic equipment manufacturing prices fell by 0.4%[4] Future Outlook - CPI is expected to remain stable in August 2025, with food CPI likely to continue its downward trend due to high base effects from the previous year[5] - PPI may show a narrowing year-on-year decline in August, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics in certain industries[5] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and unexpected fluctuations in international commodity prices[5]

文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 8月9日，国家统计局公布7月通胀数据，CPI同比0%、前值0.1%、预期-0.1%、环比0.4%；PPI同 比-3.6%、前值-3.6%、预期-3.4%、环比-0.2%。 核心观点：统计时点及中下游产能利用率偏低是PPI表现偏弱的两条"暗线"。 7月PPI继续磨底，大宗价格对PPI环比拉动虽转正，但统计上未囊括下旬的涨价情况，因而中上游PPI表 现不及高频数据。 PPI为每月5日、20日调查单价的简单平均值，而反内卷带动的涨价集中于下旬，因此 本月PPI（环比-0.2%）不及预期。高频数据也与PPI走势分化，7月煤、钢价格回升，而煤炭采选 （-1.5%）、黑色压延（-0.3%）环比仍为负。相比之下，油价、铜价对本月PPI贡献为正， 测算大宗商品 价格拉动PPI环比0.1%。 同时中下游价格对PPI拖累仍较大，也令7月PPI表现低于市场预期。 与2016年上游涨价向下游传导不同 的是，本轮供给过剩更多在中下游，导致上游涨价向下游传导受阻。如石化链下游PPI跌幅大于上游价格 理论传导幅度；机械设备、消费下游亦有类似特征， 测算7月中下游拖累PPI环比-0 ...

Inflation Data Summary - July CPI decreased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 0.0%, primarily due to weak food prices[3] - Core CPI improved for the third consecutive month, rising by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%, driven by higher gold prices and strong service consumption[3] - July PPI remained at a near 23-month low, with a year-on-year decline of -3.6%[3] Food Prices Impact - July food CPI fell by 0.2% month-on-month, significantly below seasonal levels by 0.9 percentage points[4] - Year-on-year food CPI dropped by 1.6%, influenced by a high base from the previous year[4] - Fresh vegetable and meat prices increased by 1.3% and 0.4% month-on-month, respectively, but were still below seasonal averages[4] Core CPI Drivers - Service prices remained stable at 0.5% year-on-year, with significant increases in travel-related costs: airfares up 17.9%, hotel stays up 6.9%[5] - Gold and platinum jewelry prices surged by 37.1% and 27.3% year-on-year, respectively, due to rising gold prices[5] - Transportation fuel prices saw a reduced decline of 1.8 percentage points to -9.0% year-on-year[5] PPI Trends - PPI's month-on-month decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points, reflecting the impact of "anti-involution" measures[6] - International oil prices increased, contributing to a 3.0% rise in oil and gas extraction month-on-month[6] - Investment demand remains weak, limiting PPI recovery to a gradual improvement[6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stagnation of CPI and PPI in July, highlighting the need for effective investment to stimulate economic growth and address supply-demand imbalances [1][5][6]. Group 1: CPI and PPI Analysis - In July, the CPI showed a year-on-year growth of 0%, which was higher than the expected -0.1%, while the PPI remained at -3.6%, lower than the anticipated -3.4% [1][6]. - The simulated deflation index, calculated using PPI and CPI, was -1.44%, slightly lower than the previous two months' -1.38%, marking the lowest since February 2024 [1][6]. - The decline in price levels since the fourth quarter of last year is attributed to insufficient local fixed asset investment affecting the supply-demand ratio [1][6]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The PPI's underperformance in July was influenced by high-frequency data discrepancies, particularly in the black metallurgy, automotive, and electrical machinery sectors [2][9]. - Despite rising prices in raw materials for black metal smelting and automotive manufacturing, the final PPI figures showed a decrease of 0.3% in both sectors [2][9]. - Prices for lithium carbonate and polysilicon saw significant increases in July, impacting the photovoltaic industry positively, although the electrical machinery sector still faced a PPI decline of -0.2% [2][10][11]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Looking ahead to August, the PPI decline is expected to narrow to below 3%, with the simulated deflation index likely to bottom out and rise [3][12]. - Initial data for August indicates a neutral trend in industrial prices, with significant increases in domestic coal and coke prices compared to the end of July [3][12]. - The stability of automotive retail and wholesale prices will be crucial to monitor in the coming weeks [3][12]. Group 4: CPI Positive Signals - Positive signals in July were primarily observed in the CPI sector, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.4% month-on-month, reaching a year-on-year high of 0.8% [4][13]. - Notable price stability was seen in automotive retail, with both fuel and new energy vehicle prices stabilizing after a prolonged decline [4][13]. - Household appliances showed a significant month-on-month increase of 2.2%, driven by rising raw material costs, indicating a potential positive trend in consumer spending [4][14]. Group 5: Policy Implications - The article emphasizes the ongoing challenges in achieving a favorable overall price level, necessitating continued policy efforts [5][16]. - Recent government meetings have focused on regulating competition in key industries, including the new energy vehicle sector and the pig farming industry, which may influence future price dynamics [5][16].

Inflation Overview - July CPI remained flat year-on-year at 0.0%, better than the market expectation of -0.1% and consistent with prior predictions[1] - Month-on-month CPI increased by 0.4%, compared to a previous value of -0.1%, aligning with seasonal trends[1] - July PPI recorded a year-on-year decline of -3.6%, matching the previous value and falling short of the market expectation of -3.4%[1] CPI Components - Service prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.26 percentage points to the CPI increase[2] - Industrial consumer goods prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month, contributing about 0.17 percentage points to the CPI[2] - Food prices decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year, impacting CPI by approximately -0.29 percentage points[5] PPI Insights - PPI's month-on-month decline of 0.2% was influenced by seasonal factors, including high temperatures and increased rainfall affecting construction demand[7] - Prices in the non-metallic mineral products sector fell by 1.4%, while coal mining prices decreased by 1.5%[7] - The prices of high-tech products, such as aircraft manufacturing, rose by 3.0%, indicating a shift towards high-end industrial development[9] Market Outlook - The market is expected to exhibit a dual bull structure in equities and bonds in the second half of the year, supported by a potential easing of US-China trade relations[1] - A-shares are anticipated to experience a structural rally characterized by alternating low-volatility dividends and technology growth[1] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to decline to around 1.5% amid low probability of large-scale domestic demand stimulus[1]

Economic Indicators - In July, China's CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a 0.1% decline from the previous month, while year-on-year it remained flat; the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8%, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [1] - The PPI in July decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating a narrowing of the decrease for the first time since March, with a year-on-year drop of 3.6% [1] Healthcare Standards - The National Medical Insurance Administration has released the first national standard in the healthcare sector, titled "Technical Specifications for Convenient Services of Medical Insurance Information Platform," which will be implemented on January 1, 2026, marking a significant milestone in the standardization of medical insurance in China [2] Robotics Industry - The global robotics industry experienced explosive growth in the first half of the year, with domestic manufacturers seeing average growth rates between 50% and 100%, a rare occurrence in the industry’s history [3] - The CEO of Yushutech emphasized that while current hardware is not perfect, it is sufficient for present needs, with future improvements focused on reducing costs and enhancing reliability [3] Trade and Tariffs - The average trade-weighted tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on all products has surged to 20.11%, significantly higher than 2.44% at the beginning of the year, marking the highest level since 1933 [3][4] - The World Trade Organization has downgraded its forecast for global goods trade growth in 2026 from 2.5% to 1.8%, citing the negative impact of recent tariff adjustments on global trade prospects [3][4]

Group 1 - The core consumer price index (CPI) in China rose by 0.8% year-on-year in July, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with the growth rate expanding for three consecutive months [1][2] - The CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the seasonal level by 0.1 percentage points, driven primarily by rising prices in services and industrial consumer goods [1] - Service prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.26 percentage points to the overall CPI increase, with significant price hikes in air tickets, tourism, hotel accommodations, and vehicle rentals due to the summer travel season [1] Group 2 - The prices of gold and platinum jewelry increased significantly, with year-on-year rises of 37.1% and 27.3% respectively, while service prices maintained a stable year-on-year increase of 0.5% [2] - The prices of fuel and new energy vehicles saw minimal declines of 2.6% and 1.9% year-on-year, representing the smallest decreases in nearly 34 and 28 months respectively [2] - Food prices decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, influenced by a high base from the previous year, with fresh vegetable prices dropping by 7.6% and fresh fruit prices increasing by 2.8% [2]