Economic Indicators - Stocks surged following the CPI number for September, which came in slightly below expectations, indicating a potential easing in inflation concerns [1] - Inflation remains stubborn, running around 2.5% to over 3%, with no significant changes expected in the near term [2][8] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement at least one more rate reduction, but caution is advised due to inflation not being at target and uncertain labor market conditions [5][6] - The Fed has various sources of information to assess economic conditions beyond CPI data, including direct consultations with business and community leaders [4] Housing Market Insights - Owner's equivalent rent is at its lowest since 2021, which may indicate potential disinflation in housing, although occupancy rates in multifamily dwellings remain high [6][7] - Tariffs are expected to lead to one-time price increases in various goods and services, contributing to inflationary pressures [8][10] Government Shutdown Impact - Previous government shutdowns have had a small negative economic impact, but longer durations could lead to greater effects and a significant snapback once resolved [13][14] - The 2018 shutdown reportedly cost the government $11 billion, highlighting the financial implications of prolonged shutdowns [15] Long-term Economic Challenges - The deficit is identified as a long-term challenge, with the need for politically unpopular measures such as program cuts or tax increases to restore budget balance [16][17] - Addressing current and prospective deficits is crucial for long-term economic stability, with potential growth from AI being a hopeful but uncertain factor [18]

特朗普在帖文中称，"他们这么做只是为了干扰美国最高法院及其他法院的裁决。"特朗普表示，关税对 美国的国家安全和经济至关重要。"鉴于其恶劣行径，美国与加拿大的所有贸易谈判即刻终止。" 美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特谈及加拿大贸易问题时表示，美方对缺乏灵活性的不满情绪日益加剧。 当地时间23日晚，美国总统特朗普通过社交媒体表示，"'罗纳德·里根基金会'刚刚发表声明称，加拿大 涉嫌欺诈性地使用了一则虚假广告，该广告中出现了（美国前总统）罗纳德·里根对关税发表负面言论 的内容。" 据央视新闻消息，当地时间24日，美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特表示，美国与加拿大的贸易谈判进展不顺 利，他认为美国总统特朗普对加拿大非常失望。 ...

当地时间23日晚，美国总统特朗普通过社交媒体表示，"'罗纳德.里根基金会'刚刚发表声明称，加拿大涉嫌欺诈性地使用了一则虚假广告，该广告中出现 了(美国前总统)罗纳德.里根对关税发表负面言论的内容。" 据央视新闻消息，当地时间24日，美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特表示，美国与加拿大的贸易谈判进展不顺利，他认为美国总统特朗普对加拿大非常失望。 美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特谈及加拿大贸易问题时表示，美方对缺乏灵活性的不满情绪日益加剧。 经常有读者朋友错过推送 特朗普在帖文中称，"他们这么做只是为了干扰美国最高法院及其他法院的裁决。"特朗普表示，关税对美国的国家安全和经济至关重要。"鉴于其恶劣行 径，美国与加拿大的所有贸易谈判即刻终止。" 经中美双方商定，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰将率团赴马来西亚与美方举行经贸磋商 来源央视新闻 | 17 | | 100 100 613 90万 103 3332 1875 | 70 A | | | 529. 465 449 344 | 6h. 105 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. | 工 | -65 1 ...

【导读】下星期，美联储降息，基本定了 低于预期的读数是个惊喜，尤其对那些对进一步降息仍有顾虑的部分美联储官员而言。尽管市场普遍预计美联储将在下周会议上下调借贷成本，这份报告 或将帮助决策者相信他们在12月也可以再次降息——在政府关门持续、其他官方数据缺失的情况下更是如此。 市场已经完全消化了年内剩余时间两次降息25个基点的预期。 大家好，今晚重磅数据出炉，影响下星期美联储降息！一起看看发生了什么事情。 9月美国核心通胀以三个月来最慢速度上升，令美联储维持下周降息路径。 10月24日晚间，根据美国劳工统计局（BLS）公布的数据，剔除波动较大的食品和能源后，核心消费者价格指数（CPI）较8月上涨0.2%。这主要受到住房 成本关键指标录得自2021年初以来最小增幅的抑制。 | 公制 | 实际的 | 估计 | | --- | --- | --- | | 消费者物价指数环比 | +0.3% | +0.4% | | 核心CPI月率 | +0.2% | +0.3% | | 消费者物价指数同比 | +3.0% | +3.1% | | 核心CPI同比 | +3.0% | +3.1% | 原定于10月15日发布的9月CPI报告因 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trade negotiations between the United States and Canada are facing significant challenges, with increasing dissatisfaction from the U.S. side regarding Canada's lack of flexibility [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - U.S. economic advisor Hassett indicated that the trade talks with Canada are not progressing well, leading to President Trump's disappointment with Canada [1] - President Trump expressed his frustration on social media, accusing Canada of using a fraudulent advertisement related to tariffs, which he claims misrepresents former President Ronald Reagan's views [1] - Trump announced the immediate termination of all trade negotiations with Canada due to what he described as Canada's "malicious actions" [1]

Core Insights - Procter & Gamble's Q1 earnings exceeded Wall Street expectations, with a profit of $4.75 billion or $1.95 per share, adjusted earnings at $1.99 per share, surpassing the expected $1.90 per share [1][2] - The company reported total revenue of $22.39 billion, higher than the anticipated $22.15 billion [2] - The company expects a reduction in tariff-related costs for FY2026, estimating $400 million in post-tax costs, down from a previous estimate of $800 million [2] Revenue and Sales Growth - The beauty segment, including brands like Head & Shoulders, Pantene, and Olay, saw a sales increase of 6% [2] - The men's grooming segment, led by Braun and Gillette, experienced a sales growth of 5% [2] - Procter & Gamble maintains a sales growth forecast of 1% to 5% for the fiscal year [3] Future Earnings Outlook - The company projects full-year earnings per share between $6.83 and $7.09 [3] - Analysts surveyed by FactSet predict an average full-year earnings per share of $6.97 [4]

Group 1 - The inflation data indicates a K-shaped economy, with rental inflation decreasing and used vehicle prices falling, suggesting a divergence in economic recovery [2][4] - Core goods prices, excluding food and energy, are only up 0.2% year-over-year, indicating that mainstream retailers are currently unable to pass on tariff increases [3][4] - The Federal Reserve may continue to cut interest rates, potentially bringing inflation below 3% by the end of next year, as inflation fears appear to be overblown [4][6] Group 2 - There is an expectation of a tax refund bonanza early next year, with average refunds projected to exceed $4,000, which may allow retailers to pass on tariff increases [6] - Despite potential short-term tariff inflation, the overall economic momentum is weak, suggesting that inflation will cool down again [7] - Concerns are raised about the need for the Federal Reserve to add more liquidity to the financial markets, given their current bubbly state [7]

Group 1 - The September CPI report indicates that both overall and core inflation metrics are below expectations, paving the way for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4] - The unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for September is recorded at 3%, slightly up from 2.9% in the previous month, marking the highest level since January 2025, but below the market expectation of 3.1% [1] - The adjusted CPI month-on-month rate for September is 0.3%, which is lower than both market expectations and the previous value of 0.4% [1] Group 2 - The unadjusted core CPI year-on-year rate for September is also at 3%, lower than market expectations and the previous value of 3.1% [1] - The adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate for September is recorded at 0.2%, again below market expectations and the previous value of 0.3% [1] - Following the CPI data release, traders increased bets on two more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with expectations for further cuts in January [1] Group 3 - The CPI report was released despite the government shutdown, aimed at assisting the Social Security Administration in calculating cost-of-living adjustments for millions of beneficiaries [3] - The data for September was collected before the funding pause, ensuring its availability for analysis [3] - Economists noted that the gradual transmission effect of import tariffs has led to companies absorbing some tax burdens, with consumers estimated to have borne about 20% of the tariff costs [4] Group 4 - The increase in overall inflation compared to core inflation is attributed to a 4.1% rise in gasoline prices in September, which was the largest monthly contributor to the CPI [4] - Analysts suggest that the latest CPI report almost guarantees another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, supporting the view that inflation is under control [4] - The Federal Reserve is currently in a data blackout period ahead of the October 29 policy decision, relying on incomplete data due to the government shutdown [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rally in the oil sector is primarily driven by significant sanctions imposed by the US on major Russian oil producers, which could potentially lead to a loss of 1.5 to 2.5 million barrels per day in oil supply [2][4]. Group 1: Sanctions Impact - The sanctions announced are the most meaningful since the onset of the war, leading to a notable increase in oil prices from below $58 to approximately $62.37 per barrel [1][2]. - If the sanctions are fully enforced, the price of oil could rise significantly, potentially reaching the $80 range, depending on the actual volume of oil lost [5][8]. - The market remains skeptical about the enforcement of these sanctions, as previous sanctions have not been effectively implemented [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - There is a belief that workarounds will be found, which may mitigate the impact of the sanctions on oil supply in the long term [5][6]. - Despite the current price increase, traders are cautious and do not expect the rally to last, citing an oversupplied market projected for 2026 [16][17]. - The skepticism in the market is reflected in traders' attitudes, who are not fully convinced that the price rally will be sustained [15][16]. Group 3: Global Dynamics - The enforcement of sanctions is crucial, as companies in countries like India and China may have significant US business ties that discourage them from circumventing these sanctions [11][12]. - The EU's coordinated response to the sanctions indicates a collective effort, although there are concerns about the impact on energy prices within Europe [13][14]. - The US administration's stance on low oil prices contrasts with the potential for higher energy costs resulting from these sanctions, contributing to market skepticism [15].

Price Trends - Excluding food and energy, apparel experienced the largest price increase, rising by 0.7%, indicating the impact of tariff increases [1] - Audio and video equipment, a trade-intensive sector, increased by 1.6% year-over-year, marking the largest increase since 2021 [1]