这些随新政策声明一同发布的季度预测，将为明年5月接替美联储主席鲍威尔的人设定基准预期，并相 当于给美国总统特朗普重返白宫后的这关键第一年开出的一份成绩单。 特朗普2024年总统竞选的核心议题——围绕通胀和负担能力的问题仍未解决。这位共和党总统在经济方 面的支持率正在下降，截至9月，食品价格同比上涨2.7%，而他在1月重掌大权时这一数字还不到2%。 此外，高房价和高抵押贷款利率相结合，使许多人无法触及住房所有权。 然而，今年早些时候一些最糟糕的预期结果并未成为现实。当时特朗普最初的"解放日"关税计划引发了 关于全球贸易崩溃、价格上涨与高失业率这一致命组合，甚至存在关于"圣诞购物季被取消"的讨论。 9月份美国失业率维持在4.4%的温和水平，这是目前可获得数据的最新月份。经济增长前景也有所改 善。尽管整体通胀率仍高于美联储2%的目标，但有合理的理由认为明年可能会有所缓解。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美联储官员将于北京时间周四发布新的经济预测，为一个动荡的年份画上句号。 这一年，原本寄望的从通胀中"软着陆"，因关税上涨和移民打击导致工人供应受限而演变为价格压力的 重燃，而美联储在大部分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has completed its Article IV consultation visit for China in December 2023, projecting economic growth rates of 5.0% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026, which are upward revisions of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared to the October World Economic Outlook. The revisions are attributed to favorable macroeconomic stimulus measures taken by China and lower-than-expected tariffs from the U.S. [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Economic Growth Projections - IMF forecasts China's economy to grow by 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, reflecting an increase of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points from previous estimates [1] - Factors Influencing Projections - The upward revisions are primarily due to commendable macroeconomic stimulus measures implemented by China and the lower-than-anticipated tariffs imposed by the U.S. [1]

特朗普为关税辩护：“正是因为关税的便捷与快速实施，我们的国家安全才得到极大增强，我们也成为了当今世界金融实力最强的国家。只有那些阴暗邪恶的势力，才希望看到这一切终结！”“对美国国家安全最大的历史性威胁，将是美国最高法院就关税问题作出的不利裁决。届时，我们在经济上将毫无防御能力。” https://t.co/wjUPMdQxKn ...

Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to continue a moderate recovery, with 2025 and 2026 GDP growth projected at 3.2% and 3.1% respectively, reflecting a slowdown from 2024's 3.3%[29] - The IMF has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 down by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8% due to increased tariff disturbances and uncertainties[16] - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. remains high at approximately 19%, contributing to ongoing trade tensions and economic uncertainty[20] Domestic Economic Performance - China's GDP growth for 2025 is projected to be around 5%, with Q1 growth at 5.4%, driven by policy implementation and increased local government bond issuance[36] - In Q3 2025, GDP growth slowed to 4.8%, continuing the trend from Q2's 5.2% growth, influenced by reduced fixed asset investment and external tariff pressures[36] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth reached 56.6% in Q3, indicating a strong domestic demand despite external challenges[41] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Global inflation is expected to decline to 4.2% in 2025 and further to 3.7% in 2026, with significant variations across countries[23] - The U.S. CPI is projected to rise by 2.4% in 2026, remaining above the target level, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[26] - Major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have slowed their rate-cutting pace due to resilient inflation and economic activity, with expectations of three rate cuts in 2026[25] Risks and Uncertainties - Key risks include potential overheating of risk asset prices, increased public finance pressures, and the impact of geopolitical tensions on economic stability[33] - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade policies poses a significant risk to global economic recovery, with potential for further adjustments in trade routes and economic efficiency[20]

Core Insights - U.S. pressure has reinforced the rival's position as the world's essential manufacturing hub, resulting in a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion [1] Group 1 - The rival's status as the world's indispensable factory floor has been solidified due to U.S. pressure [1] - The trade surplus of the rival has surpassed $1 trillion, indicating significant economic strength [1]

特朗普公布了一项针对美国农民的120亿美元援助计划。特朗普表示，这项援助计划的资金将来自于关税收入，目的是支持这一重要的投票群体。特朗普当天还威胁要对墨西哥额外征收5%的关税，指责其违反水资源共享条约。特朗普警告称，如果他认为有必要，将对来自加拿大的化肥征收高额关税。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普称，墨西哥违反1944年水条约，欠德克萨斯州130万英亩英尺的水。美国已停止对墨西哥蒂华纳输水，并将升级措施，包括关税与制裁，直至墨西哥履行条约。 https://t.co/IOZHMucfKm ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Platinum is expected to continue oscillating, while palladium is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Platinum and Palladium Fundamental Data - **Price**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 442.30 with a 0.60% increase; the gold exchange platinum closed at 435.32 with a 0.26% increase; the New York platinum continuous contract closed at 1655.10 with a -0.32% decrease; the London spot platinum closed at 1635.00 with a -0.41% decrease. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 381.75 with a 0.66% increase; the RMB spot palladium closed at 355.00 with a -4.05% decrease; the New York palladium continuous contract closed at 1502.00 with a 1.25% increase; the London spot palladium closed at 1457.12 with a 0.07% increase [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Guangzhou platinum was 25,037, an increase of 2,466 from the previous day, and the open interest was 65,408, an increase of 53,143. The trading volume of NYMEX platinum was 24,655, an increase of 1,820, and the open interest was 61,853, a decrease of 1,473. The trading volume of Guangzhou palladium was 4,728, a decrease of 4,841, and the open interest was 17,736, an increase of 14,369. The trading volume of NYMEX palladium was 3,606, a decrease of 788, and the open interest was 19,292, an increase of 85 [1] - **ETF Holdings**: The platinum ETF holdings (ounces) (previous day) were 3,124,461, an increase of 2,519. The palladium ETF holdings (ounces) (previous day) were 1,093,932, an increase of 16,431 [1] - **Inventory**: The NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces) (previous day) was 614,713, a decrease of 232. The NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces) (previous day) was 176,705, an increase of 4,315 [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread of PT9995 to PT2606 was -6.98, an increase of 1.35 from the previous day. The spread of Guangzhou platinum 2606 contract to 2610 contract was -1.05, a decrease of 0.95. The cost of the inter - period arbitrage of buying Guangzhou platinum 2606 and selling 2610 was 5.51, an increase of 0.02. The spread of the gold exchange platinum to London platinum was 63.64, an increase of 11.38. The spread of the RMB spot palladium price to PD2606 was -27, a decrease of 0.25. The spread of Guangzhou palladium 2606 contract to 2610 contract was -0.25, an increase of 0.40. The cost of the inter - period arbitrage of buying Guangzhou palladium 2606 and selling 2610 was 4.79, unchanged. The spread of the RMB spot palladium to London palladium was 24, an increase of 0.67 [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.98, a decrease of 0.08%. The US dollar to RMB (CNY spot) was 7.07, an increase of 0.02%. The US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 7.07, an increase of 0.01%. The US dollar to RMB (6M forward) was 7.00, an increase of 0.22% [1] Macro and Industry News - The US September core PCE price index annual rate unexpectedly dropped to 2.8%, hitting a three - month low, while the market expected it to record 2.9% for the third consecutive month [4] - White House Economic Council Director Hassett stated that it was time for the Fed to cut interest rates prudently and that he had not discussed the Fed chairperson candidate with Trump [4] - Bessent said that the US would achieve 3% GDP growth by the end of this year [4] - Trump approved the production of small cars in the US [4] - Trump commented on the Supreme Court tariff case, saying that the US had other ways to impose tariffs, and the current method was much more direct [4] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu refused to withdraw from politics in exchange for a pardon [4] - Hamas said it was willing to discuss the issue of disarmament within the framework of promoting the establishment of a Palestinian state [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of platinum is 0, and that of palladium is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]

马克龙在结束中国访问后告诉 《回声报》，他在访问期间曾敦促，如果中国不采取行动缩减与欧盟不断扩大的贸易顺差，恐将面临关税。“我告诉他们，如果他们不采取行动，我们欧洲人将被迫在未来几个月采取强有力的措施。”“此类措施可以效仿美国采取的措施，例如对中国产品征收关税”。 https://t.co/6ZOXhR4oyA ...

Market Overview - The US dollar index weakened throughout the week, with a notable drop in anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, closing at 98.95 [1] - Gold prices reached a six-week high due to a weak dollar and rate cut expectations, while silver approached a record high of $59, driven by supply shortages and industrial demand [1] - Non-US currencies, including the euro, pound, and Australian dollar, showed varying degrees of strength against the dollar, with the Australian dollar and pound performing particularly well [1] - Oil prices experienced volatility driven by geopolitical factors, with a significant rise due to pipeline damage and the situation in Venezuela, followed by a brief pullback before rebounding again [1] US Stock Market - The US stock market showed a generally strong performance, with the three major indices continuing a typical year-end upward trend, driven by investor confidence and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [2] Investment Bank Insights - Bank of America adjusted its Federal Reserve rate cut forecast, predicting a 25 basis point cut in December and two additional cuts by 2026 [5] - Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish long-term outlook on gold, forecasting prices to reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026 due to strong demand from central banks and investors [5] - Deutsche Bank warns that if the next Federal Reserve chair fails to effectively address inflation risks, the dollar may face downward pressure [5] Major Events - The potential nomination of Hassett as the next Federal Reserve chair raises concerns about aggressive rate cuts to appease Trump, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut next week [6][7] - The Bank of Japan signaled a strong likelihood of raising interest rates for the first time since January, with expectations of an increase from 0.5% to 0.75% [8] - Global copper prices surged to historical highs, driven by supply constraints and strong demand, with LME inventories dropping significantly [9][10] Corporate Developments - The successful IPO of Moore Threads, China's first domestic GPU company, saw its stock price soar over 500% on its first day, reflecting strong market interest [16] - OpenAI is facing intense competition from Google and Anthropic, prompting a shift in focus to improve ChatGPT amid concerns over its market position [17] - Amazon launched its new AI chip, Trainium 3, to compete with Nvidia and Google, enhancing its capabilities in AI processing [19] - Tesla is under scrutiny from investors regarding its valuation and compensation plans, with concerns about shareholder dilution and strategic shifts in its business focus [20] Banking Sector Changes - Several banks have removed 5-year large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) from their mobile banking apps, reflecting a strategic response to the current economic environment and competitive pressures [21]

Group 1 - The number of layoffs planned by U.S. employers in November 2025 reached 71,321, a significant decrease from 153,100 in October, but still substantial, pushing the total layoffs for 2025 to 1.17 million, a 54% increase year-over-year, marking the highest level since the pandemic began in 2020 [2] - Major layoffs were driven by Verizon's announcement of 13,000 job cuts, followed by the tech sector, which announced 12,400 layoffs, reflecting a 17% year-over-year increase in cumulative layoffs for the industry [2] - The private sector employment report from ADP indicated an unexpected decrease of approximately 32,000 jobs, reinforcing expectations for policy easing [2] Group 2 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell by 27,000 to 191,000, marking the lowest weekly level since September 2022, while continuing claims decreased by 4,000 to 1.939 million, indicating a slowdown in layoffs [3] - The mixed employment data has attracted market attention, adding uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut slightly decreasing [4] - The dollar index remains stable around 99 but may face downward pressure due to rate cut expectations and potential leadership changes at the Federal Reserve [6] Group 3 - Meta is reportedly planning to significantly cut its metaverse investment, reducing the budget for Reality Labs by about 30%, which has led to a 3.43% increase in its stock price [9] - Microsoft announced a price increase for its Office productivity software subscriptions starting July 1, 2024, resulting in a slight stock price increase of 0.65% [9] - Intel has decided to retain its network and edge computing division, which it previously considered selling, leading to a 7.45% decline in its stock price [10]