证券研究报告·公司点评报告·能源金属 赣锋锂业（002460） 2025 年业绩预告点评：锂价上涨贡献弹性， Q4 业绩反转 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 32,972 | 18,906 | 22,042 | 43,216 | 48,817 | | 同比（%） | (21.16) | (42.66) | 16.59 | 96.06 | 12.96 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4,947 | (2,074) | 1,485 | 9,379 | 10,858 | | 同比（%） | (75.87) | (141.93) | 171.58 | 531.75 | 15.77 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.36 | (0.99) | 0.71 | 4.47 | 5.18 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 30.90 | (73.71) | 102.97 | 16.30 | 14.0 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·能源金属 赣锋锂业（002460） 2025 年业绩预告点评：锂价上涨贡献弹性， Q4 业绩反转 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 32,972 | 18,906 | 22,042 | 43,216 | 48,817 | | 同比（%） | (21.16) | (42.66) | 16.59 | 96.06 | 12.96 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4,947 | (2,074) | 1,485 | 9,379 | 10,858 | | 同比（%） | (75.87) | (141.93) | 171.58 | 531.75 | 15.77 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.36 | (0.99) | 0.71 | 4.47 | 5.18 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 30.90 | (73.71) | 102.97 | 16.30 | 14.0 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][19] Core Views - The company's performance in 2025 is under pressure, but it is expected to turn profitable in Q4 2025, indicating a potential inflection point. The company has a sufficient order backlog and is expanding in non-lithium sectors, which may lead to improved performance in the future [2][12] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 4,805 million, with a decrease to 4,525 million in 2024, followed by a further decline to 4,372 million in 2025. However, revenue is expected to rebound to 6,012 million in 2026 and reach 7,482 million in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 37.5% and 24.4% respectively [4][13] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 322 million in 2023, but it is expected to decline to -163 million in 2024 and -857 million in 2025. A recovery is anticipated in 2026 with a net profit of 483 million and further growth to 803 million in 2027 [4][13] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.30 in 2023, dropping to -0.66 in 2024 and -3.46 in 2025, before recovering to 1.95 in 2026 and 3.24 in 2027 [4][13] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 13.7% in 2023, turning negative at -5.1% in 2024 and -36.5% in 2025, but recovering to 17.1% in 2026 and 22.1% in 2027 [4][13] Order and Market Dynamics - The company has seen a significant increase in new orders, with approximately 44.21 billion in new orders (including tax) in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 117.5%. As of June 30, 2025, the order backlog stands at about 100.85 billion (including tax), up 46% year-on-year [12][13] - The decline in profitability in 2025 is attributed to overcapacity in the lithium and photovoltaic industries, leading to sustained price pressure on products. Additionally, increased costs and asset impairment losses have negatively impacted profits [12][13] Business Expansion - The company is actively expanding into multiple sectors, including: 1. In the photovoltaic sector, it is collaborating with leading manufacturers to develop perovskite tandem batteries, which are expected to enhance efficiency and be used in low-orbit satellites and space computing power generation [12] 2. In the solid-state battery sector, the company is the first in the industry to pursue dual technology routes and has secured commercial production orders for solid-state battery equipment [12] 3. In other areas, the company has received orders for laser drilling equipment in HDI and PCB sectors, which are expected to benefit from the growth in AI computing power [12]

Macro Strategy - The IPCA model shows better application effects in the domestic credit bond market compared to the US market, with a Sharpe ratio consistently above 1.45 and above 2.2 from May to December 2025 [1][13] - The strategy exhibits asymmetric risk/reward characteristics, with 75% of sample dates showing positive excess credit returns, and a maximum excess return of 0.13% from January 2024 to December 2025 [1][13] - The practical operability of the strategy is strong, allowing for investment in bonds with similar risk characteristics even when specific bonds are not available in the secondary market [1][13] Fixed Income Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of key industries, including new pillar industries, future industries, traditional industry upgrades, infrastructure construction, green transformation, and consumer upgrades, which are expected to receive policy support and financing breakthroughs [2][14] - A total of 1,098 bond-issuing entities align with the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a total bond scale of approximately 10.8 trillion yuan, primarily rated AAA and concentrated in East and North China [2][14] - The participation of bond-issuing entities in the six key industries shows significant differentiation, with infrastructure and new pillar industries leading in both the number of issuers and bond scale [2][14] Industry Insights - The public utility sector is expected to benefit from deepened electricity reforms, with recommendations to focus on green electricity, thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, and the valuation of photovoltaic and charging pile assets [7] - The food and beverage sector is anticipated to experience a spring consumption surge, particularly in snacks, dining, and seasonal beverages, with a positive outlook for Q1 2026 due to favorable market conditions [7] - Companies like KaiGe Precision Machinery and HeMai Co. are positioned to benefit from the growing demand in AI computing and energy storage, with projected profit growth in the coming years [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the electric new energy sector, including CATL, Xiamen Tungsten, and others [2][3]. Core Insights - The electric new energy sector's overall fund holding ratio has decreased, with a notable decline in the holdings of new energy vehicle and power equipment sectors, while the industrial control sector saw a slight increase [6][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy, technology, and demand factors influencing the various sub-sectors within the electric new energy industry, leading to different performance expectations [6][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Fund Holdings in Electric New Energy Sector - As of Q4 2025, the fund holding ratio for the electric new energy sector is 8.73%, down by 0.93 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 1.83 percentage points year-on-year [9][14]. - The market capitalization of the electric new energy sector accounts for 5.92% of the total market capitalization, with a slight decrease of 0.28 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 0.81 percentage points year-on-year [9][14]. 2. Sub-sector Fund Holdings Analysis - The fund holding ratio for the new energy vehicle sector is 7.24%, down by 1.06 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 1.30 percentage points year-on-year [18][21]. - The new energy power generation sector has a fund holding ratio of 2.19%, with a minor decrease of 0.05 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and a decrease of 0.30 percentage points year-on-year [18][24]. - The power equipment and industrial control sector's fund holding ratio is 1.28%, showing a slight increase of 0.14 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [18][26]. 3. Investment Recommendations 3.1 New Energy Vehicles - The report suggests focusing on companies with clear competitive advantages and improving profitability in the battery segment, such as CATL and A123 Systems [28]. - It also highlights the importance of materials and components in the supply chain, recommending companies like Keda and others [28]. 3.2 New Energy Power Generation - The report indicates a shift from policy-driven to market-driven demand for energy storage, recommending companies involved in energy storage integration and battery production [29]. - It emphasizes the growth potential in wind energy, particularly offshore wind, and suggests monitoring companies like Mingyang Smart Energy and Goldwind [30][32]. 3.3 Power Equipment and Industrial Control - The report identifies AIDC as a growth driver for power equipment demand, recommending companies with strong fundamentals and competitive pricing [34]. - It also notes the increasing importance of high-voltage construction in domestic demand, suggesting companies like XJ Electric and others [34][35].

Summary of Dinglong Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Dinglong Co., Ltd. (鼎龙股份) - **Industry**: Lithium battery materials, specifically focusing on functional auxiliary materials for power and energy storage batteries Key Points and Arguments - **Acquisition Details**: Dinglong acquired 70% of Haofei New Materials for 630 million yuan, valuing the company at 900 million yuan, with a PE ratio below 10 times, marking Dinglong's entry into the lithium battery materials sector [2][4] - **Haofei's Market Position**: Haofei is a leading supplier of lithium battery dispersants and binders, with a strong growth trajectory expected to continue, projecting sales of 590 million yuan by 2026 [2][6] - **Strategic Rationale for Entry**: Dinglong's decision to enter the lithium battery materials market was based on extensive research, identifying significant growth potential in auxiliary materials, which are crucial for battery performance and efficiency [3][4] - **Future Plans Post-Acquisition**: Dinglong aims to accelerate its presence in solid-state battery materials, leveraging both companies' technological strengths to innovate functional auxiliary materials [2][7] - **Haofei's Competitive Edge**: Haofei has replaced imported materials and collaborates with leading companies like CATL, achieving over 50% annual sales growth since 2021, with a projected revenue of 590 million yuan in 2026 [6][8] - **Investment in Production Capacity**: Haofei plans to invest in the Xiangyang Industrial Park to address upstream raw material needs, supporting its anticipated sales growth driven by increasing demand in the lithium battery sector [9] Additional Important Insights - **Technological Integration**: Dinglong plans to integrate AI technology into material development, enhancing research efficiency and innovation capabilities [19][20] - **Collaboration Synergy**: The partnership between Dinglong and Haofei is based on technological and industrial synergies, with Dinglong providing support in key upstream raw materials to enhance Haofei's product competitiveness [10][11] - **Solid-State Battery Development**: Dinglong has been researching solid-state batteries since 2022, recognizing their potential in high-end applications like AI robotics and drones, and plans to accelerate development in this area [12][13] - **Financial Structure of Acquisition**: The acquisition structure allows Haofei to retain 30% ownership, reflecting confidence in future growth, with a performance-based payment mechanism in place [14][15] - **Team Integration and Future Planning**: Dinglong intends to create a new platform that integrates both teams to develop complex lithium battery materials, emphasizing the importance of this collaboration for competitive advantage [16][17] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of Dinglong's strategic move into the lithium battery materials industry through the acquisition of Haofei New Materials, highlighting the anticipated growth, technological advancements, and collaborative synergies that will shape their future endeavors.

表观业绩环降主要系计提减值1.5亿左右，对应经营性业绩超 厦钨新能更新：2025Q4经营性业绩超预期，2026年新增量有望全面打开-0127 #事件：厦钨新能发布2025年业绩快报，2025年公司实现营收200.3亿元，同比+48%，实现归母/扣非7.5/7.1亿元， 同比+42%/+58%。 厦钨新能更新：2025Q4经营性业绩超预期，2026年新增量有望全面打开-0127 #事件：厦钨新能发布2025年业绩快报，2025年公司实现营收200.3亿元，同比+48%，实现归母/扣非7.5/7.1亿元， 同比+42%/+58%。 对应2025Q4实现归母/扣非2.0/2.0亿元，同比+42%/+89%，环比-7%/-7%。 对应2025Q4实现归母/扣非2.0/2.0亿元，同比+42%/+89%，环比-7%/-7%。 表观业绩环降主要系计提减值1.5亿左右，对应经营性业绩超预期。 2025Q4看，公司钴酸锂出货1.8+万吨，环比略增，持续满产满销，主要系下游在原材料上涨及出口退税率调整背 景下加大备库力度，单位经营性盈利水平维持1万元左右；三元出货1.7-1.8万吨，单位经营性盈利维持3000元左 右；铁锂出货 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhongwei New Materials (300919.SZ) is expected to maintain its leading position in the ternary precursor market by 2025, according to Xinluo statistics [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The current production capacity utilization rate of the company is high [1] - The company remains optimistic about the growth potential of nickel-based materials [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Domestic terminal demand structure is upgrading, with high-end electric vehicles featuring high-nickel ternary batteries being launched, increasing the installation ratio of ternary batteries [1] - European policy direction is driving the continuous increase in electric vehicle penetration [1] - The gradual commercialization of solid-state batteries is promoting the growth of high-nickel ternary materials [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongwei New Materials (300919.SZ) is expected to maintain its leading position in the ternary precursor market by 2025, according to Xinluo statistics [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The current production capacity utilization rate of the company is high [1] - The company remains optimistic about the growth potential of nickel-based materials [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Domestic terminal demand structure is upgrading, with high-end electric vehicles featuring high-nickel ternary batteries being launched, increasing the installation ratio of ternary batteries [1] - European policy direction is driving the continuous increase in electric vehicle penetration [1] - The gradual commercialization of solid-state batteries is promoting the growth of high-nickel ternary materials [1]

公 司 研 究 业绩大幅增长，锂电景气度提升、平台化成效显著 先导智能(300450) 25 年业绩预告点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 赵玥炜(分析师) | 021-23185630 | zhaoyuewei@gtht.com | S0880525040040 | | 毛冠锦(分析师) | 021-23183821 | maoguanjin@gtht.com | S0880525040081 | 本报告导读： 公司业绩表现亮眼，随着公司锂电行业回暖、国际化&平台化布局稳步推进，叠加 固态电池新技术有望成为新增量，业绩仍有较大改善空间。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收 ...