Report Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of SHFE zinc 2507 closed at 21,845 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 0.14% week-on-week. The SHFE zinc market was volatile this week due to the mixed macro situation and the fundamentals of increasing supply and weakening demand in the off - season, with signs of inventory accumulation and weakening spot premiums [3]. - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and Fed officials' differences became public. In June, the processing fees continued to rise, smelters were highly motivated to produce, and the output from newly - put - into - operation smelters and the resumption of some overhauled smelters are expected to lead to an increase in production in June, making the domestic supply gradually more relaxed. The zinc import window closed in June [3]. - This week, the downstream开工 was under pressure. The galvanizing开工 decreased, the orders for galvanized pipes were few, and the demand for galvanized structural parts weakened in the off - season. The开工 of die - casting zinc alloys decreased, and the demand weakened with a slower shipment rhythm. The开工 of zinc oxide remained flat with weakening orders, but some zinc oxide enterprises are expected to resume production next week, and the开工 may increase slightly [3]. - The domestic zinc ingot spot inventory increased, while the LME zinc inventory continued to decrease. With the Fed's stance, high production enthusiasm of smelters, expected increase in zinc ingot production, weakening demand in the off - season, and signs of inventory accumulation despite the low social inventory of zinc ingots, it is recommended to short SHFE zinc at high prices [3]. Summary by Directory 01 Price Data - The SHFE zinc market was volatile this week. The spread between SHFE zinc 07 - 08 contracts weakened week - on - week, and the LME zinc 0 - 3M backwardation changed little week - on - week. Due to weak downstream demand, the spot premium decreased [8][12][17]. 02 Fundamental Data - This week, the port inventory of zinc concentrates decreased by 0.1 million tons week - on - week, and the raw material inventory increased by 1.4 million tons [20]. - In June, the processing fees continued to rise, smelters were highly motivated to produce, and the production in June is expected to increase, making the domestic supply gradually more relaxed [23][24]. - In May, the net import of refined zinc was 2.53 million tons, with imports of 2.67 million tons and exports of 0.14 million tons [27]. - This week, the downstream开工 was under pressure. Traders replenished less inventory, the orders for galvanized pipes were few, and the demand for galvanized structural parts weakened in the off - season [28][31][35]. - The domestic zinc ingot spot inventory increased this week, the inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone decreased, and the LME zinc inventory continued to decrease [37][38]. - Last week, the new - home sales in 10 key cities increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, while the second - hand home sales increased both week - on - week and year - on - year [44][45]. - In June, the production plan of household air conditioners was 20.5 million units, a 11.5% increase compared to the actual performance of the same period last year; the production plan of refrigerators was 7.9 million units, a 3.6% increase; the production plan of washing machines was 6.75 million units, the same as the actual performance of the same period last year; from June 1 - 15, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market increased by 38% year - on - year; and the domestic photovoltaic module production continued to decrease in June [49][51][54][59].

1.黄金建议反弹3375-3380区域做空，止损在3388，目标3360-3340. 文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强大的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉 快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操作建议，投资有风险，盈亏自负。 从黄金4小时K线形态分析，当前多头动能阶段性占优，但上方3380-3385区域存在显著技术阻力。金价虽出现回调，但尚未有效击穿上升通道下沿，中长期 上行趋势结构保持完整。若中东地缘冲突加剧或国际贸易风险升级，可能触发技术性反弹修复行情。日线级别收出十字星形态，价格回踩布林带中轨支撑 位，整体维持震荡下行运行节奏。小时图级别呈现明显下跌特征，在未突破关键压力位前建议维持空头交易策略。短期阻力区间确认为3380-3385，下方支 撑区间位于3335-3330。下周操作翁富豪建议黄金价格反弹至3375-3380区域可考虑布局空单，需严格设置止损并控制仓位风险。 操作策略： 金价周五持稳于3368一线，但周线累计下跌1.8%。最新FOMC声明强化美联储谨慎立场，维持联邦基金利率4.25%-4.50%区间不变，但下调2025 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that copper prices are expected to decline for the second consecutive week due to three main factors: Middle East conflicts, weak demand, and Federal Reserve policies [1] Group 2 - The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are contributing to market uncertainty, impacting copper prices negatively [1] - Weak demand in key markets is further exacerbating the downward pressure on copper prices [1] - Federal Reserve policies, particularly regarding interest rates, are influencing investor sentiment and market dynamics in the copper sector [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are under pressure from hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and a strengthening dollar, while geopolitical risks and inflation expectations provide support [1] - Short-term dynamics suggest that the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict may drive safe-haven buying, but the long-term trend will be dominated by the Federal Reserve's policy path and the actual effects of trade policies [1] - Key factors to monitor include U.S. policy movements towards Iran, progress in nuclear negotiations, and the Federal Reserve's stance on inflation response [1] Group 2 - Current trading strategy for gold suggests maintaining a bearish outlook, with resistance at 3385 and support in the 3330-3320 range [3] - The strategy emphasizes short positions on rebounds in the 3360-3365 area, with a stop-loss at 3388 and a target of 3340-3320 [4] - The analysis focuses on practical trading strategies rather than motivational content, aiming to provide concrete insights for traders [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are attempting to rebound from a weekly low of $3,360 amid rising demand for the US dollar due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Reports suggest the US may attack Iran this weekend, increasing demand for the dollar and impacting gold prices [2]. - Gold prices broke the critical support level of $3,377 but found new buyers near the weekly low of $3,363 due to renewed interest in safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions [2][4]. - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate at 4.25%-4.5%, aligning with expectations, while keeping forecasts for two rate cuts this year unchanged [2][3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The bullish bias for gold remains intact, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) above the midline, currently close to 55 [9]. - Gold needs to reclaim the $3,377 resistance level on a sustained basis to initiate a new upward trend, with the next significant resistance at $3,400 and static resistance at $3,440 [9]. - Immediate downside support is at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $3,348, with further support at the 50-day SMA of $3,308 [11][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming "June Festival" holiday in the US may lead to liquidity shortages, potentially exaggerating gold price volatility [5]. - Traders will closely monitor developments in the Middle East conflict for new trading signals regarding gold prices [6].

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a collective decline on Thursday, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices falling by 0.79% and 1.21% respectively, indicating a bearish market sentiment with a stock ratio of 725 gainers to 4710 losers [1] - The decline in A-shares is attributed to external risk events, including rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have heightened market risk aversion and caused short-term volatility in international oil prices, impacting sectors like oil and gold [3] - The market is also facing pressure from the Federal Reserve's policy expectations, as there is a divergence in views regarding future interest rate cuts, which has hindered foreign capital inflow into A-shares, particularly affecting high-valuation tech stocks such as semiconductors and AI [4] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index has failed to break through the key resistance level of 3400 points, leading to a bearish reversal pattern and significant exhaustion of bullish momentum, with a clear bearish technical formation [4] - The ChiNext 1000 Index has shown consecutive declines, reflecting increased selling pressure on small-cap stocks, which has weakened the overall market's profitability [4] - The A-share market is currently testing key technical support levels, with the Shanghai Composite Index's critical support at 3378 points already breached, suggesting a potential decline towards 3350 points if it cannot break through short-term resistance levels [4] Group 3 - Certain previously popular sectors, such as the new energy vehicle industry, are experiencing adjustments due to the tapering of subsidy policies, leading to a slowdown in industry growth and challenges in earnings growth for related companies, which has negatively impacted stock prices [4] - Cyclical industries like steel and coal continue to face issues of overcapacity and significant price volatility, resulting in unstable profitability for companies in these sectors, further contributing to poor stock performance [4] - The market currently lacks clear hotspots and profitability, leading to reduced investor participation and heightened cautious sentiment, which can trigger panic selling in response to market fluctuations [4] Group 4 - A-shares are expected to continue declining on Friday, as the panic sentiment from Thursday's market drop is unlikely to dissipate quickly, maintaining strong selling intentions among investors [5] - The technical outlook shows that major indices have breached important moving average support levels, establishing a clear downward trend that is difficult to reverse in the short term [5]

19日周四，欧洲斯托克600指数下跌0.6%，正走向连续第三个交易日的下跌。亚洲股市基准指数跌幅超过1%，美股期货同样承压下行，美元兑主 要货币走强。由于六月节假期，美国股市和国债市场休市。现货黄金日内跌超0.5%，美、布两油日内涨幅达0.5%。 这一消息让本已因美联储下调今年增长预期，并上调通胀预测而紧张的市场雪上加霜，关税驱动的不确定性正在让央行的宽松政策变得复杂化。 市场情绪急转直下的导火索是以伊冲突持续僵持，据央视新闻周四报道，三位知情人士称，美国总统特朗普在6月17日已向高级助手表示批准了对 伊朗的攻击计划，但暂不下达最终命令，希望通过威胁手段迫使伊朗放弃核计划。 地缘政治阴云笼罩全球股市 央视援引美官员等消息称，美国"福特"号航母打击群预计下周部署至欧洲战区，很可能将驶入靠近以色列的东地中海海域。伊朗全国出现大面积 断网。 "我们目前保持谨慎，专注于那些与利率相关性较低、与美国总统行动关联度较小的资产类别，"野村证券自主投资组合管理主管Gareth Nicholson 表示: "但这样的资产并不多见。在这种环境下，保持更加谨慎是明智的。" 新加坡海峡投资首席执行官Manish Bhargava表示 ...

就业市场并不要求美联储降息一次。 在掌握关税影响之前，难以知晓该如何反应。 鲍威尔：（政策）利率并不是非常高，政策具有适度的限制性。 美联储政策必须是前瞻性的。 希望在调整政策之前看到关税对于美国通胀的一些影响。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained its current interest rates, contrary to traders' expectations of a hawkish stance [1] - The dot plot indicates a projected reduction of 50 basis points in interest rates by 2025, with a total of two rate cuts anticipated [1] - Prior to the announcement, traders were concerned that the number of rate cuts in 2025 might be reduced by one [1]

美联储政策被政治化，降息靴子何时落地？中东局势升级，油价涨势能持续吗？点击查看详细解读！ 相关链接 美联储分歧大，降息概率几何？ ...