换资前言： 空单策略： 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周四（5月15日）亚市早盘，现货黄金低位徘徊，目前交投于3183.50美元/盎司附近。金价周三下跌逾 2%，盘中最低3167.94美元/盎司，为4月10日以来新低，收报3177.32美元/盎司，因贸易乐观情绪升温 提振风险偏好，导致投资者撤离金市。这一轮突如其来的下跌让不少投资者措手不及，也引发了市场对 黄金未来走势的广泛讨论。此次金价下跌的直接导火索是全球贸易紧张局势的缓和。美国和中国同意大 幅降低关税，并宣布在制定细节期间暂停征收关税90天，这一重大利好消息极大地提振了市场风险偏 好。华尔街主要股指应声走高，投资者纷纷撤离避险资产，转向风险更高的投资品种。值得注意的是， 黄金上月刚创下3500.05美元的历史新高，今年累计涨幅仍达21.3%，这轮回调可以视为对前期过快上涨 的技术性修正。交易员正密切关注即将公布的美国生产者价格指数(PPI)数据，以寻找美联储政策路径 的新线索。 一个人如果没有了目标和信念，哪怕有再多人给你指引，也是徒劳。问问自己心中所想做这个投资的目 的是什么？达到了吗？还差多远？需要怎样的条件才可以早日 ...

美联储戴利：鉴于不确定性，市场对政策的任何指引都将是猜测且可能错误的。 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices fell sharply due to easing global trade tensions, which reduced concerns about a potential economic recession and diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][3] - The recent drop in gold prices saw a significant decline of $50 within three hours, breaking below the $3200 mark [1][3] - The U.S. April CPI annual rate decreased to 2.3%, weaker than market expectations, leading to market speculation of two interest rate cuts by 2025 totaling 56 basis points [3] Group 2 - The gold market is currently under a bearish correction, with the price failing to break the key resistance level of $3260 [5] - Technical indicators show negative pressure on gold prices, with the current price below the 50-day moving average and a negative signal from the relative strength index (RSI) [5] - The analysis suggests a continued downtrend, with a potential target of $2909 if the price breaks below the previous low of $3200 [3][5] Group 3 - The recommended trading strategy is to focus on short positions below $3200, with specific targets set at $3175 and $3150 [7] - The analysis emphasizes a cautious approach, combining technical and fundamental analysis while maintaining strict risk management practices [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant drop in gold prices on May 12, with international spot gold falling below $3300 per ounce and reaching a low of $3207 per ounce, reflecting a notable daily decline [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a decrease in safe-haven demand for gold, as evidenced by the calming signals from the India-Pakistan conflict and renewed negotiation proposals from Russia regarding Ukraine [3] - Expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have shifted, with a growing anticipation of delayed interest rate cuts, which could increase the opportunity cost of holding gold and subsequently lower its demand [4] Group 3 - Technical selling pressure has intensified, with a significant reduction in net long positions in gold and a high percentage of programmatic selling contributing to the price drop [5] Group 4 - Domestic consumption demand for gold has weakened post the May Day holiday, with reduced market demand and some brands resorting to discount promotions to accelerate inventory turnover, further exerting downward pressure on gold prices [7] Group 5 - The combined effects of geopolitical factors, monetary policy expectations, technical selling, and domestic demand fluctuations have collectively contributed to the sharp decline in gold prices on May 12 [9]

不确定通胀压力是否只是暂时的。 我们的任务面临的双方面的风险都在增加。 美联储副主席Jefferson： 美联储政策具备及时应对的能力。 近期的通胀数据与通胀迈向2%的目标水平一致。 政府政策效果可能在"一段时间内"不确定。 关税更高可能导致今年通胀更高。 下调了2025年的增长预期，但仍预计经济将增长。 从硬数据中寻找经济疲软的迹象。 ...

美联储副主席杰斐逊：美联储政策具备及时应对的能力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by multiple factors, including investor behavior, inflation data, geopolitical tensions, and the performance of the US dollar [1][10]. Group 1: Investor Behavior - The phenomenon of buying on dips acts as an invisible "safety net" in the gold market, with significant buying interest emerging when prices drop, reflecting investors' strong belief in gold as a "ultimate safe-haven asset" [3]. - After gold prices fell to a low of $3207.30 per ounce, a surge of buying interest quickly entered the market, indicating a robust demand for gold amidst economic uncertainties [3]. Group 2: Inflation Data - The US Labor Department reported a 0.2% month-on-month increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, which was below the expected 0.3%, providing a boost to gold prices [4]. - The mild inflation report is expected to support the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, enhancing the attractiveness of gold as a hedge against inflation [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the potential talks between Ukraine and Russia, continue to provide strong support for gold prices [5][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding geopolitical events reinforces the historical wisdom of buying gold during tumultuous times, as investors seek to protect their assets from potential losses [5]. Group 4: US Dollar Performance - The US dollar index fell by 0.8% to 100.98, contrasting with the rise in gold prices, highlighting the negative correlation between the two [7]. - Despite easing trade tensions between the US and China, the dollar remains lower than its level when tariffs were announced, influencing market expectations for Federal Reserve policy and subsequently gold prices [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Gold faces three key variables: the progress of US-China trade negotiations, the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the evolution of global geopolitical risks [8]. - The market is advised to monitor these factors closely, as they will significantly impact risk appetite and demand for gold [8].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index has shown a significant decline after a brief rebound, primarily driven by weaker-than-expected inflation data and underlying concerns about the US macroeconomic framework [3][4]. Fundamental Analysis - The US core CPI increased by only 0.2% month-on-month, providing an opportunity for dollar bears to re-enter the market [3]. - There are growing doubts among traders regarding the resilience of the US economy, with expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the end of the year remaining unchanged despite the inflation data [3]. - The 10-year swap spread for the dollar remains elevated, exceeding 50 basis points, indicating market concerns about US Treasury market pressures and fiscal sustainability [3]. Technical Analysis - The dollar index is in a clear downtrend, currently trading around 100.90, with a significant drop from the 110 level [5]. - The MACD indicator has been below the zero line for an extended period, suggesting a weak overall trend despite recent bullish signals [5]. - The Bollinger Bands indicate a wide trading range, with the upper band at 101.92 and the lower band at 98.02, while the price is constrained by the 99.97 midline [5]. Market Sentiment Observation - Market sentiment is characterized by skepticism, with traders increasingly losing confidence in the dollar [7]. - The short-lived rebound in the dollar reflects a cautious attitude among traders, who are quick to capitalize on any upward movement to short the currency [7]. - Overall sentiment remains pessimistic but has not reached extreme panic levels, with short positions on the dollar being the predominant strategy [7]. Market Outlook - In the short term, the dollar index is expected to oscillate within the 100.14 - 101.80 range, with potential support if US economic data exceeds expectations [8]. - A successful breakout above the 101.17 resistance level could lead to a rally towards 102.22 [8]. - Long-term structural pressures on the dollar are significant, with the trend of de-dollarization potentially impacting reserve composition and cross-border settlements [8].

Core Points - The US dollar declined on Tuesday, reversing some of the previous day's gains due to inflation data falling below market expectations [1][6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% last month, lower than the expected 0.3%, with March CPI showing a decrease of 0.1% [3][6] - Despite lower inflation data, tariffs have increased the cost of imported goods, suggesting potential inflation rise in the coming months [1][3] Dollar Index Performance - The dollar index fell by 0.67% to 101.05, reflecting market reactions to the inflation data and expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy adjustments [3][5] - The decline in the dollar index indicates a short-term adjustment in the market's perception of the dollar's strength [5] Currency Movements - The euro appreciated by 0.81% against the dollar, reaching 1.1177, partly due to the dollar's decline and optimistic market sentiment regarding the European economy [4] - The British pound rose by 0.95% to 1.3297, marking the largest single-day increase since April 28, driven by the dollar's retreat and positive outlook on the UK economy [7] Trade Tensions and Economic Outlook - Easing trade tensions have led to reduced recession forecasts among major banks, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Barclays, impacting expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [5][6] - The market now anticipates that the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts until September, with a projected reduction of at least 25 basis points [6]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its S&P 500 index target, lowering the short-term forecast from 6200 to 5900 points, while maintaining a long-term optimistic outlook with a 12-month target raised to 6500 points, reflecting structural market opportunities [1][3] - The current market pricing implies optimistic expectations for economic growth, but potential risks of slowing economic and corporate earnings growth may limit valuation expansion in the coming months [3] - The adjustment in target prices indicates a reassessment of market drivers, with previous concerns over recession risks and US-China tariff disputes easing due to a recent phase one trade agreement and stronger-than-expected earnings from tech giants [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the strategic importance of the technology sector, driven by a capital expenditure cycle propelled by generative AI technology, which is expected to lead in earnings growth and cash flow generation [3] - The firm warns of uncertainties in the tariff environment by 2025, projecting that the average tariff rate on US imports from China will remain above 30%, significantly higher than the 4.3% level in 2024, which could pressure corporate profit margins [3] - The current dynamic P/E ratio of the S&P 500 has reached 21.5, at the 85th percentile over the past decade, indicating that corporate earnings growth must exceed 10% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 to alleviate valuation pressures [4]