Group 1 - The current trading price of paper gold is around 901.68 CNY per gram, reflecting a decline of 1.08% from the previous levels, with a high of 913.94 CNY and a low of 893.35 CNY observed today [1] - The short-term outlook for paper gold is leaning towards a bearish trend, indicating potential selling opportunities if prices stabilize around 890 CNY [3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has issued a warning to investors betting on a rate cut in December, stating that it is too early to assume a rate reduction [2] - Powell's recent statements highlight significant internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions, with contrasting views on the economic outlook [2] - The divergence in economic indicators, such as strong consumer spending versus a cooling job market, complicates the Fed's future policy direction [2]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced volatility, initially dropping to 3915 before rebounding, reaching a high of 4030, but ultimately closing at 3928 due to pressure from hawkish comments by the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [1][2]. Fundamental Analysis - Powell indicated that a December rate cut is not guaranteed, with the probability dropping from 95% to 67.9%. The Fed will restart limited Treasury purchases, ending the quantitative tightening policy [2]. - The upcoming meeting between U.S. and Chinese leaders in Seoul is crucial; lack of progress in trade talks may provide short-term support for gold prices, while positive developments could increase downward pressure [3]. - The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are expected to maintain current interest rates, but any unexpected hawkish statements could increase market volatility [4]. Technical Analysis - Daily Chart: Gold showed a high-to-low reversal pattern, with three consecutive bearish candles at the start of the week. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages have formed a death cross, indicating a short-term bearish trend. Key resistance is identified in the 3985-3990 range, while support levels are at 3886, 3846, and 3720 [7][8]. - Four-Hour Chart: Gold initially dropped to 3915 but then entered a phase of consolidation. Key support is at 3917, with significant resistance at 4030. If prices break above this resistance, a bullish trend may follow [10].

Market Overview - Global risk assets experienced a pause in their upward momentum, with major stock indices in the Asia-Pacific region collectively declining, followed by a lower opening for European indices [1][2][3] - The decline in stock markets is attributed to short-term profit-taking after significant gains that led to historical highs on October 27 [1][3] Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices saw a substantial drop, with spot gold falling over 2% and briefly dipping below $3900 per ounce, while silver dropped nearly 2% [1][3] - Analysts from Heraeus indicated that the adjustment in precious metal prices could last for several months, although they expect a potential continuation of the upward trend if investor interest remains strong [4][5] Investment Demand for Gold - Despite recent price declines, global retail demand for gold remains robust, and the growth rate of gold holdings in ETFs has not shown significant decline, indicating sustained investor interest [5][6] - Analysts predict that the average gold price could rise to around $4560 per ounce next year, reflecting a 33% increase from the average price since the beginning of the year [6] Future Price Projections - Metals Focus analysts believe that ongoing economic uncertainty will continue to support gold prices, with trade policy and its global economic impact being key drivers [5][6] - Morgan Stanley's commodity strategy head anticipates that gold prices could exceed $5000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, driven by sustained demand from investors and central banks [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive," indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 5% over the next six months [10]. Core Insights - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have been significant, with a notable drop of 6.3% on October 21, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013, and prices fluctuating between $3950 and $4150 from October 22 to 27 [1][2]. - The primary drivers of recent volatility include a reduction in geopolitical risks, a reversal in market sentiment, and profit-taking after a cumulative increase of over 65% in gold prices since 2025 [2]. - The report highlights that despite short-term volatility, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, with a recommendation to view price corrections below $4000 as potential long-term investment opportunities [3]. Summary by Sections Recent Price Movements - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline, with related assets also suffering losses, including a 7.60% drop in gold stock ETFs [1]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices were adjusted downwards by over 6% [1]. Market Drivers - Geopolitical risk reduction and a shift in market sentiment have led to decreased demand for gold as a safe haven [2]. - The report notes a liquidity squeeze effect in the A-share market, causing systemic sell-offs and impacting gold stocks negatively [2]. - The Federal Reserve's policy expectations have shifted, with a decrease in the probability of interest rate cuts, which has further pressured gold prices [2]. Upcoming Catalysts - Key upcoming data releases, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and U.S. non-farm payroll data, are expected to influence gold prices significantly [3]. - A dovish signal from the Fed could boost gold prices, while a hawkish stance may lead to further declines [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a gold asset allocation of 10%-15% in investment portfolios to hedge against dollar credit risks [8]. - It recommends focusing on companies with strong resource reserves, cost control, and expansion potential, such as Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [8].

Core Insights - US stock market continues to rise, driven by mild inflation data, with all three major indices closing higher [1][3] - Weaker-than-expected CPI data alleviates concerns over interest rate paths, stimulating broad risk appetite [1][4] - Focus shifts to corporate earnings sustainability and future Federal Reserve policies [1] Market Drivers - Inflation slightly eases: US Consumer Price Index year-on-year at 3.0%, below the expected 3.1%, boosting hopes for a pause in Federal Reserve actions [4] - Earnings strength: Several large-cap stocks exceeded expectations, providing further support [5] - Oil stability: WTI crude oil remains above $61, maintaining energy optimism without reigniting inflation concerns [6] Volatility and Returns - S&P 500 Index: up +0.79% to 6,791.68 [7] - Dow Jones Index: up +1.01% to 47,207.12 [7] - Nasdaq 100 Index: up +1.04% to 25,358.15 [7] - Russell 2000 Index: up +1.24% to 2,513.47 [7] - VIX down 5.38%, indicating a decrease in risk aversion [8] - 10-year Treasury yield stable at 4.043%, reflecting a balance between stocks and bonds [9] Commodity Insights - WTI crude oil: $61.50 per barrel, stabilizing after earlier sanctions-driven spikes [10] - Gold: $4,137.80 per ounce, supported by weak inflation data and stable dollar [11] - Precious metals remain a focus as investors weigh real interest rate impacts against safe-haven appeal [12] Global Market Overview - FTSE 100 Index: up +0.7% to 9,645.62 [13] - DAX: up +0.13% to 24,239.89 [13] - CAC 40: moderately up to 8,225.63 [13] - European markets reflect Wall Street's optimism, supported by commodity-linked stocks and alleviated inflation concerns [13] Key Stock Movers - Ford: up +11.92% due to strong electric vehicle sales and optimistic guidance [15] - Western Union: up +10.07% driven by strong remittance volumes [16] - Beyond Meat: down -24.65% due to weak Q3 sales and margin pressures [17] - Nektar: down -5.39% as pipeline updates disappointed investors [18] - Packaging Corporation of America: down -4.07% due to cautious industry outlook [19] Upcoming Market Focus - Futures slightly higher, continuing the rebound post-CPI as investors await upcoming corporate earnings [20] - Oil remains a key driver; stable prices support the stock market, but any new increases could reignite inflation concerns [20] - Gold continues to attract inflows amid geopolitical volatility and policy uncertainty [20] Market Sentiment Snapshot - Risk appetite: constructively cautious, moderately optimistic with defensive hedging [21] - VIX: cooling but above complacency levels [22] - Dollar Index (DXY): slightly softened post-CPI; real rates stable [23] - Gold: holding firm in the $4,130-$4,150 range [24] - WTI crude: consolidating above $61; supply dynamics remain key [25] Other Key Areas - Federal Reserve comments: several officials to speak this week; tone may clarify rate path post-CPI [26] - Earnings continuation: large tech stocks' performance may test market sentiment resilience [26] - Liquidity and volatility: month-end fund flows may cause short-term distortions [26] - Commodities: gold-silver ratio remains a focus for momentum signals [26]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Gina Bolvin of Bolvin Wealth Management emphasizes the need for clearer evidence that the Federal Reserve's policies are returning to the 2% inflation target before a significant decline in long-term bond yields can be expected [1] Group 1 - The biggest risk observed in the market is the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy direction [1] - If the job market remains resilient and fiscal or tariff policies support growth or exert inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve may not need to implement the anticipated interest rate cuts, necessitating a repricing of bonds [1] - Currently, there is a lack of evidence indicating that the Federal Reserve's policies are on track to achieve the 2% inflation target [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - On October 24, 2025, A - share three major indices strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a ten - year high. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.71% to 3950.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.02% to 13289.18 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.57% to 3171.57 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 19742 billion yuan, a significant increase of 3303 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends. For example, the CSI 300 Index, coke, and coking coal indices rose, while the prices of some products like iron ore futures fell [1][2][3][4]. - Different factors affected the prices of various futures products. For instance, the supply - demand relationship, policy, and international trade factors influenced the prices of sugar, soybean meal, and other products [5][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On October 24, A - share three major indices strengthened. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.71% to 3950.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.02% to 13289.18 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.57% to 3171.57 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 19742 billion yuan, a significant increase of 3303 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4660.68, a ring - up of 54.34 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On October 24, the coke weighted index fluctuated and sorted, closing at 1781.2, a ring - up of 25.4; the coking coal weighted index fluctuated in a narrow range, closing at 1261.2 yuan, a ring - up of 16.0. The炼焦煤 price in Linfen Anze market rose 50 yuan/ton on October 23. Steel inventory decreased, and the output of the top 10 coal enterprises increased year - on - year. The potential negative feedback risk will restrict the short - term rebound height of coal and coke prices, and the coking coal basis and inter - month positive spreads strengthened [3][4][5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The consulting company Datagro predicted that the global sugar will have a surplus of 198 million tons in the 2025/26 season, compared with a previous forecast of a shortage of 500 million tons, which put pressure on the market. Affected by the decline of US sugar, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract closed slightly lower in the night session on October 24 [5]. Rubber - The Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher in the night session on October 24. As of October 24, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 9898 tons to 163450 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 10980 tons to 124020 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory increased by 2924 tons to 46772 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 2521 tons to 42640 tons. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased slightly last week [6][8]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on October 24, the CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. The market expected the Sino - US trade talks to improve the bilateral trade environment. The estimated US soybean harvest progress reached 73% as of October 19. The Brazilian soybean crop started well, with most mainstream institutions estimating the new - year output at about 1.78 billion tons. Domestically, on October 24, the M2601 main contract closed at 2933 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.17%. The domestic soybean imports in the first three quarters reached a record high, and the soybean inventory of oil mills was still high, limiting the rebound space [9]. Live Pigs - On October 24, the live pig futures price fluctuated. The LH2601 main contract closed at 12175 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.2%. The widening of the standard - fat price difference attracted second - round fattening, providing short - term support. However, the domestic live pig inventory was still at a high level, and the terminal consumption was weak, so the short - term market was in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [10]. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the price center likely to move up slightly, supported by supply contraction expectations and macro - policy benefits. However, weak demand and uncertain factors may limit the increase [10]. Cotton - On the night of October 24, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13585 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 23 lots compared with the previous day. The price of machine - picked cotton was concentrated at 6.2 - 6.4 yuan per kilogram. The Sino - US - Malaysia trade negotiations made phased progress [10]. Iron Ore - On October 24, the 2601 main contract of iron ore fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.58% and a closing price of 771 yuan. The iron ore shipment volume increased month - on - month, the domestic arrival volume decreased from a high level, and the hot metal output continued to decline from a high level. Short - term iron ore prices were in a volatile trend [11]. Asphalt - On October 24, the 2601 main contract of asphalt fluctuated and closed up, with a rise of 0.92% and a closing price of 3299 yuan. The refinery production plan in November decreased significantly month - on - month, the inventory continued to decrease, and the demand for rigid - need stocking increased. The recent rise in crude oil prices boosted market sentiment, and short - term asphalt prices were in a volatile trend [11]. Logs - On October 24, the 2601 log contract opened at 830, with a minimum of 826, a maximum of 833.5, and closed at 829, with an increase of 672 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to the support of the moving average at 827 - 815. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship had no major contradictions, and the market was in a pattern of gradual inventory reduction [11][12]. Steel - The recent macro - level was mixed, with limited incremental information from the "14th Five - Year Plan Press Conference" and a neutral impact on the market. Sino - US high - level economic and trade consultations released some positive signals, but the EU's sanctions on Russia affected some Chinese enterprises, adding uncertainties. The domestic demand recovery momentum was still weak, and the risk of market volatility due to unmet expectations should be警惕 [12]. Alumina - The bauxite port inventory decreased slightly, and the supply tightened, with firm ore prices. The alumina spot price continued to weaken, squeezing smelter profits and increasing the expectation of production cuts, so the domestic alumina supply might gradually decrease. The domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity and operation remained at a high level, and the demand for alumina might be slightly boosted. Overall, the alumina price might be supported [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - The alumina spot price continued to weaken, and the domestic macro - expectation boosted the aluminum price, increasing the electrolytic aluminum smelting profit and production enthusiasm. However, the incremental supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum was limited. The "14th Five - Year Plan" improved domestic consumption expectations, and the downstream start - up rate increased during the traditional peak season, strengthening aluminum consumption and reducing aluminum ingot inventory. However, the inhibitory effect of high aluminum prices on downstream demand should be carefully observed [13].

Group 1 - The core CPI for September increased by 3.0% year-on-year, slightly up from 2.9% in August, but below the market consensus of 3.1% [2] - The overall CPI also rose by 3.0% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures, yet it provided some buffer for the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting [3] - The market reacted moderately positively, with the dollar index dropping by 0.3% and international gold prices surging by $30 to $4089 per ounce, reflecting a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and easing expectations [3] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced volatility, initially rising before sharply declining to the $4000 support level, with increased trading volume suggesting a potential formation of a market top [4] - The $4000 level is critical for market focus, and a drop below this could lead to a further decline towards the $3800 target, which is seen as a healthy normalization after previous parabolic gains [4] - A correction in gold prices is viewed as necessary to digest the excess market bubble accumulated over the past months, although a drop below $3800 could signal more significant issues for the market [4]

Group 1: Inflation Data and Federal Reserve Expectations - The overall CPI in the U.S. rose by 0.3% month-on-month in September, lower than the market expectation of 0.4%, and the year-on-year growth rate was 3%, also below the expected 3.1% [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year, both lower than market expectations, indicating reduced inflationary pressure [1] - The market perceives that the Federal Reserve has likely concluded its rate hike cycle, with nearly 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and December [1][2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Investment Opportunities - Following the CPI data release, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield dropping to 3.966%, marking a recent low, and the yield curve indicating increased expectations for Fed rate cuts [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in October is a focal point for the market, with a high probability of confirming a dovish stance, which may put further pressure on the dollar and lead to increased inflows into gold and commodities [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. government shutdown and economic data visibility continues to affect market volatility and investor sentiment [2][3] Group 3: Commodity and Currency Market Insights - The rise in rate cut expectations supports gold prices, suggesting potential low-positioning opportunities while monitoring short-term volatility from Fed officials' comments [2] - The dollar faces short-term downward pressure, with trading opportunities in the euro against the dollar and dollar against yen, recommending cautious trading strategies [2] - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields provides some support for the stock market, but overall risk appetite remains constrained by policy uncertainties [2][3] Group 4: Oil Market Outlook - Oil prices are expected to remain weak in the short term due to rising inventories and demand concerns, with OPEC+ decisions and geopolitical situations being key variables to watch [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent inflation data has alleviated market anxiety and confirmed the general expectation of moderate inflation, providing new momentum for market gains [1] Market Reaction - The probability of two more interest rate cuts by the end of the year has risen to 88%, driven by the current economic conditions [1] - The S&P 500 futures surged nearly 0.7% as a result of the favorable data, indicating a positive market response [1] Employment Market - Ongoing issues in the employment market explain the Federal Reserve's commitment to its current policy path, highlighting the importance of labor market conditions in monetary policy decisions [1]