点击蓝字，关注我们 黄金期货价格在短暂攀升至3500美元/盎司高位后小幅走低。 智通财经 APP 获悉，在美国财长贝森特暗示贸易紧张局势可能缓和后，周二美国股市和美元走强， 黄金期货价格在短暂攀升至 3500 美元 / 盎司高位后小幅走低。不过，摩根大通对黄金持乐观看法， 预计明年金价将达到 4000 美元。 贝森特表示，他预计 中美贸易紧张局势最终会缓和 ，并称关税战 "不可持续"，尽管他将未来与中国 的谈判描述为一场尚未开始的 "艰难" 谈判。 在贝森特发表讲话后， 美国股市上涨逾 2%，美元指数上涨 0.7% 。贝森特的讲话有助于缓解市场对 美国总统特朗普要罢免美联储主席鲍威尔的担忧。特朗普威胁 罢免鲍威尔导致周一金价飙升，美国 股市和其他风险资产暴跌 。 然而，除非近期形势发生重大变化，否则预计金价将继续走高。Pepperstone 的 Quasar Elizundia 表 示："如果对货币当局的信心继续削弱，地缘政治和经济的不确定性持续存在，那么金价可能会延续 上涨势头，达到新高。" Pepperstone 的 Michael Brown 表示，由于没有迹象表明特朗普会改变惩罚市场的政策方向，市场参 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - Trump's high tariff policy is causing turmoil in the international economy and financial markets, with the IMF predicting a slowdown in global economic output as a result [1] - Finance ministers from multiple countries are negotiating with the Trump administration to lower tariffs, with 18 countries already proposing solutions and discussions planned with officials from 34 countries [1] - Morgan Stanley's Bessent believes that while trade tensions among major powers may ease, negotiations with Asian countries will be challenging [1] - The U.S. stock market surged following the announcement that the tariff deadlock is unsustainable, leading to a stronger dollar and reduced demand for gold, which has seen a 29% increase this year [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that gold prices could exceed $4000 next year due to recession risks, tariff hikes, and trade tensions [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring Federal Reserve officials' speeches for monetary policy clues, as well as the April manufacturing PMI preliminary values from the Eurozone and the U.S. [1] - The geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine remains uncertain, with Putin proposing a ceasefire and the UK Foreign Secretary advocating for peace [1] Gold Market Analysis - On Tuesday, gold prices experienced a decline, reaching a high of 3499.91 and a low of 3366.71, closing at 3380.85 [2] - The price initially continued to rise but faced pressure during the European trading session and weakened further in the U.S. session, breaking through key support levels [2] - Monthly analysis indicates that after three months of increases, a correction occurred, and a similar pattern is observed with four months of increases followed by a correction in April [2] - The weekly analysis shows that gold prices are supported at the 3006 level, while the daily analysis indicates support at 3206 [2] - Short-term analysis reveals that the price has broken through the four-hour support level, which has now turned into resistance, with the new resistance range identified at 3414-3415 [2] Key Economic Data and Events - Upcoming events include the G20 finance and central bank ministers' meeting, various manufacturing PMI preliminary values from France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK, as well as speeches from Federal Reserve officials [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices follows a shift in sentiment from President Trump, leading to improved risk appetite among investors and profit-taking after a significant price surge [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold prices fell for the second consecutive day after initially breaking the $3500 per ounce mark, with a drop of 1.9% during early Asian trading [1] - The price of gold reached a historic high of $3500.10 per ounce before the decline began, as stock markets rebounded and both the bond market and the US dollar stabilized [1] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investors began to take profits after the sharp rise in gold prices, which had increased over 25% year-to-date due to heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid trade tensions and deteriorating economic growth prospects [1] - The 14-day relative strength index indicated that gold was in an overbought condition, contributing to the recent price corrections [1] Group 3: Support Factors - Strong buying from central banks and gold ETF investors has provided support for gold prices despite the recent downturn [1]

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The IMF has lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the January prediction [1][3] - The report attributes the downward revision to increased policy uncertainty, trade tensions, and weakening demand [3][4] - The growth rate for the Eurozone is expected to decline by 0.2 percentage points to 0.8% in 2025, while emerging markets and developing economies are projected to grow at 3.7%, down 0.5 percentage points from earlier estimates [3] Group 2: Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies - The U.S. has implemented new tariffs affecting nearly all trade partners, resulting in the highest actual tariff levels in a century [4] - The tariffs have led to significant declines in exports from countries like South Korea, with a reported 5.2% drop in exports in April, including a 14.3% decrease in exports to the U.S. [1][7] - The tariffs are expected to increase costs for U.S. consumers and businesses, with estimates suggesting that aluminum tariffs alone could raise the cost of a Ford F-150 by approximately $3,000 [8] Group 3: Business Sentiment and Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets have reacted negatively to the tariff policies, with major indices experiencing declines of over 2% [5] - Retailers and other industries reliant on imports are expressing concerns about the impact of tariffs on their business models, with calls for the government to ease tariff requirements [6] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies is causing anxiety among American families and small businesses, as rising prices are expected to affect everyday expenses [6][8]

IMF首席经济学家Gourinchas：全球经济面临的风险增加，贸易紧张局势恶化可能进一步抑制经济增 长。 ...

智通财经4月22日电，IMF世界经济展望报告显示，由于政策不确定性和贸易紧张局势，预计2025年美 国经济增长将放缓至1.8%，比1月份的预测下降0.9个百分点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by escalating trade tensions and a weakening US dollar, which enhances gold's appeal to international investors [3][4]. Market Performance - As of April 21, gold prices reached $3,383.35 per ounce, up 1.67% from the opening price of $3,334.11 per ounce, with a daily high of $3,385.22 and a low of $3,328.24 [1]. - The market sentiment remains focused on gold as a safe-haven asset amid concerns over US debt and the credibility of the dollar [3]. Fundamental Analysis - The ongoing trade tensions, exacerbated by US President Trump's tariff policies, have heightened fears of global supply chain disruptions, contributing to a forecasted 0.2% contraction in global goods trade by the World Trade Organization [3]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, alongside persistent inflationary pressures and uneven economic growth, further supports gold prices [3]. Technical Analysis - The current gold price movement is primarily driven by risk aversion stemming from tariff conflicts, with expectations of a potential price drop if tensions ease [3]. - Recent price action shows a bullish trend, with the potential to reach the $3,402 resistance level, while the support level is noted at $3,357 [4]. Strategy Recommendations - The initial strategy for the week suggests focusing on buying during price pullbacks, with a target of $3,400 and a stop-loss set at $3,356 [6]. - If no pullback occurs, a direct buy strategy is recommended, maintaining the same target [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the recent fluctuations in gold prices, driven by various economic factors and market sentiments [2][3][4] - Gold prices reached a historical high of $3357.66, followed by a correction as profit-taking pressure emerged, indicating a fierce battle between bulls and bears [2][4] - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold, keeping prices near historical highs [2][3] Group 2 - Economic data released showed a 1.4% increase in US retail sales for March, the largest growth in over two years, which supported the dollar and impacted gold prices [3] - The market is preparing for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which continues to provide strong support for gold prices despite short-term fluctuations [3][4] - Technical analysis suggests that gold may enter a phase of significant range-bound trading, with key resistance and support levels identified for short-term trading strategies [4][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the steel products industry is "sideways consolidation" [3] - The rating for the aluminum industry is "expected short - term range adjustment" [4] Report's Core View - The steel products market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with a pessimistic market sentiment, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. It is expected to move in a sideways consolidation manner [3] - The aluminum market has a complex situation. Although the inventory decline strengthens the fundamental support, the tariff policy is uncertain, the overseas demand is suppressed, and the price is expected to have a short - term range adjustment [3][4] Summary by Relevant Contents Steel Products - **Production Impact**: In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel producers' shutdown during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has shut down on January 5, and most others will shut down around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [2][3] - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase from the same period last year [3] - **Market Situation**: In a pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, the price center moves down, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] - **Viewpoint**: The steel products market is expected to move in a sideways consolidation manner, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum - **Inventory**: On April 10, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 744,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from Monday and 21,000 tons from last Thursday. The overall de - stocking trend in the first half of April remained unchanged [3] - **Industry Operation**: The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 56.1%. Some recycled aluminum plants reduced their April operating levels due to order reduction and inventory pressure, and the short - term industry operating rate is expected to decline slightly [3] - **Tariff Impact**: The US tariff policy may suppress overseas demand and export - oriented die - casting enterprises' orders. China's tariff increase on US goods may raise the import cost of the aluminum industry chain but also release an incremental signal [3] - **Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to have a short - term range adjustment, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up, as well as macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is no longer considering pausing interest rate cuts, as indicated by Carsten Brzeski from ING [1] Group 1: Economic Concerns - U.S. tariffs on European goods and broader protectionist policies under Trump's administration have reignited concerns about economic growth in the Eurozone [1] - The current trade tensions are expected to exert deflationary pressures on the Eurozone due to a stronger euro and falling energy prices [1] Group 2: Investment Outlook - Investment plans in defense and infrastructure appear to provide a more optimistic outlook for the Eurozone economy [1] - Despite the potential for a pause in rate cuts, the ECB is likely to continue with rate reductions in the upcoming meeting [1]