不过，该行在周一给客户的一份说明中很快强调，反弹势头可能会在几周内消退，因为美国关税的负面影响将在未来几个月开始拖累经济。" 该行的全球市场情报主管Andrew Tyler写道："总体而言，贸易紧张降级交易还有上升空间。"然而，他补充说，"这并不代表市场风险已全部清除。" 周一，美国股市跌宕起伏，标普500指数在午后交易中跌幅高达1%，而技术重仓股纳斯达克100指数的跌幅也达到了1.4%。此前，由于美国总统特朗普吹捧 贸易谈判取得的进展，美国股市创下了2025年以来第二好的一周。 Tyler和他的团队此前对美股"战术性看跌"，他们表示，他们的最新观点与过去的看涨观点不同，因为这主要是基于技术因素，而不仅仅是基本面。 他们写道："仓位轻、流动性低、投资者参与度低，这意味着在没有关税新闻或债券收益率飙升等负面消息的情况下，市场可能会走高。" 摩根大通的交易部门转而战术性地看涨美国股市，预测包括大科技公司盈利和贸易协议公告在内的利好因素将在近期股市溃败后继续提振股市。 Tyler的团队预计，巨型科技公司的财报将为股市带来潜在利好。本周，微软公司、苹果公司、Meta Platforms公司和亚马逊公司等所谓的"七巨头 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by various factors including the strength of the US dollar, easing trade tensions between the US and China, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, which collectively affect the demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices experienced a decline of approximately 0.65% at the start of the week, with the current trading price around $3300.72 per ounce, following a recent peak [1]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may begin to cut interest rates in June 2025, which has implications for gold prices [2]. - Despite a strong dollar and reduced demand for safe-haven assets, the overall outlook for gold remains optimistic due to potential geopolitical risks and trade tensions [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Recent volatility in gold prices has been significant, with a need for traders to adjust stop-loss levels accordingly [3]. - Gold is currently trading within a range of $3260 to $3338, with key support at $3270 and resistance at $3338-3340 [5]. - A breakdown below the $3260-$3265 range could lead to a rapid decline towards the $3200 mark, indicating a potential top for gold prices [3][5]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategies include selling on rebounds near $3338-3340 and buying on dips around $3265-3270, with specific stop-loss levels and target prices outlined [5]. - Emphasis is placed on the importance of risk management and adjusting positions based on market movements [6][7].

Market Overview - Tin prices have shown strong performance, rising over 10% year-to-date, but faced pressure following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by the US in early April [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) tin price reached a nearly three-year high of $38,395 per ton on April 2, before sharply declining to $28,925 per ton by April 9, marking a nearly 20% drop within a week [2] - Despite recent volatility, tin prices continue to outperform other metals, supported by ongoing supply challenges [2] Supply Dynamics - LME tin inventories have decreased by over 40% since the beginning of the year, reaching a low of 2,810 tons by the end of April, the lowest level since June 2023 [2] - In contrast, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories have surged over 70% this year, reaching nearly 9,000 tons, the highest level since September of the previous year [2] - Indonesia's refined tin exports in February increased over 100% month-on-month to 3,670 tons, driven by higher demand from major buyers and increased exports to other Asian markets [3][4] Import Challenges - Myanmar's ongoing issues continue to pressure tin ore imports for major consuming countries, with China's imports of tin ore and concentrates in March 2025 dropping 64% year-on-year to 8,322.55 tons [5] - The cumulative import volume for January to March 2025 was 26,900 tons, reflecting a 55% year-on-year decline [5] - Although there are hopes for supply recovery following a recent meeting by Wa State authorities to outline new mining and processing licensing procedures, the timeline remains uncertain [6] Consumption Trends - Global refined tin consumption has started strong this year, with an estimated 8% year-on-year growth in the first two months, driven by robust demand from countries like India and Japan [8] - However, potential risks to domestic and export-driven demand may arise from US tariffs, which could dampen economic momentum [9] Production Outlook - The mining ban in Myanmar is expected to end soon, but the restart of operations faces delays and rising costs, with a recent meeting discussing new mining license applications [10] - Alphamin Resources announced a phased restart of its Bisie mine, which accounts for about 6% of global supply, but has lowered its 2025 tin production forecast from 20,000 tons to 17,500 tons due to increased anti-government activity [10]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions are causing a slowdown in economic growth in Asia, with low-income economies facing particularly severe impacts, although major economies like China have significant domestic demand potential [1][2] Group 1: Economic Growth Forecast - The IMF has revised its economic growth forecast for the Asia-Pacific region to 3.9% for this year, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from previous estimates due to escalating trade tensions and tightening financial conditions [1] - The IMF warns of economic downside risks, citing rising uncertainty, further tightening of financial conditions, and persistent weak external demand as potential factors for more severe negative impacts on the region's economy [1] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - The IMF suggests that Asian economies should pursue structural reforms to enhance domestic demand and create a balanced development model that emphasizes both internal and external demand [2] - The IMF encourages Asian economies to stimulate consumption and boost private investment to foster a more balanced growth pattern [2] - The importance of deepening regional economic integration is emphasized, with significant trade growth potential among Asian economies [2] Group 3: Trade Agreements - The IMF highlights the benefits of clear, stable, and predictable trade environments, advocating for pragmatic and constructive agreements, whether regional, cross-regional, or bilateral, to stimulate growth through exports [2]

张尧浠：金价震荡偏弱调整、待回踩30日线支撑看涨攀升 黄金市场上周：国际黄金冲高回落，收取巨长上影线倒垂见顶形态，对于后市来讲，有着进一步回调的预期，但基本面上，看涨前景仍具动力，故此，如 继续走低，也仍然可再度依托回撤10周均线支撑看涨攀升。不过，日图及4小时级别也有反弹走强的倾向，因而，也仍需留意阻力压制的突破情况。 具体走势上，金价自周初高开于3332.66美元/盎司，在先行走强拉升于周二触及3500美元历史高点后，遇阻回撤，大幅跳水，周三虽一度低开60美金并随 后收复缺口，但多头动力未能再度走强，并再度走低录得当周低点3260.18美元，周四虽受到支撑买盘反弹走强，但也未能突破阻力压制转强，使得周五 仍有卖盘需求，而仍表现走低，最终收于3314.08美元(收价有差别，以自己操作盘为准)，周振幅239.82美元，相对于开盘价收跌18.58美元，跌幅0.56%。 相对于前周收盘价3326.62美元，收跌12.54美元，跌幅0.38%。 影响上，周初受到美元走软以及贸易紧张局势对经济影响的不确定性，特朗普再度催促鲍威尔降息，以及美国将对从东南亚四国进口的太阳能产品加征新 关税等影响，投资者对美国经济的信心再 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced significant volatility this week, with fluctuations of nearly $100 during trading sessions, driven by heightened risk aversion amid trade tensions, pushing prices above $3500 at one point [1] - As of Friday, April 25, gold closed at $3318.62 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.93% [1] - The U.S. dollar faced pressure, dropping to a new low of 97.92, following criticism from Trump towards Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, but later rebounded above 99, struggling to break the 100 mark [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve indicated that commercial real estate prices, a concern post-COVID-19, are showing signs of stabilization despite low liquidity in the stock and bond markets in early April [2] - The U.S. banking system remains robust and resilient, with strong capital adequacy ratios across institutions, although there is an increase in credit commitments to less-regulated non-bank entities [2] - The Federal Reserve warned that hedge fund leverage, particularly among large institutions, has reached or is near historical highs, but noted a decrease in leverage as funds began to unwind positions in early April [2]

Core Viewpoint - The G20 meeting highlighted the need for enhanced multilateral cooperation to address global economic challenges, including trade tensions and financial stability, while emphasizing support for Africa's development and the importance of a stable international financial architecture [1][6]. Group 1: G20 Meeting Overview - The G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting took place in Washington, D.C. on April 23-24, 2025, focusing on global macroeconomic conditions, financial stability, and development in Africa [1][6]. - The meeting underscored the insufficient momentum in global economic growth, exacerbated by trade and tariff wars, which threaten economic and financial stability [1][6]. Group 2: China's Position and Contributions - China's Finance Minister, Liu He, emphasized the importance of maintaining a multilateral trade system centered around the WTO and resolving trade disputes through dialogue [1]. - The Chinese government is committed to supporting Africa's development by mobilizing resources and enhancing institutional capacity, leveraging digital and green transitions to stimulate economic growth [1]. Group 3: Bilateral Meetings - During the G20 meeting, Liu He held discussions with finance ministers from various countries, including South Africa, the EU, Pakistan, Germany, South Korea, Indonesia, the UK, Japan, and the World Bank, focusing on macroeconomic conditions and bilateral cooperation [2].

潘功胜强调，经济碎片化与贸易紧张局势持续扰乱产业链供应链、削弱全球经济增长动能，贸易战、 关税战没有赢家，主要经济体应加强参与国际宏观经济金融政策协调，采取实质行动推动国际合作， 维护全球经济和金融稳定。当前中国经济开局良好，延续回升向好态势，金融市场运行平稳。中国人 民银行将实施好适度宽松的货币政策，推动中国经济高质量发展。 据央行网站，2025年4月23日-24日，二十国集团(G20)在美国华盛顿召开今年第二次G20财长和央行 行长会。会议讨论了全球经济展望、完善国际金融架构、应对非洲发展和增长困境等议题。中国人民 银行行长潘功胜出席会议并发言，中国人民银行副行长宣昌能参加会议。 与会各方表示，全球经济持续复苏，但下行风险显著上升，贸易紧张局势、融资条件收紧、长期结构 性挑战交织叠加。各方对贸易摩擦升级的负面影响表示担忧，呼吁加强对话和政策协调，完善多边贸 易体系，寻求符合各方利益的解决方案。各方支持构建更稳定、更高效、更有韧性的国际金融架构， 强化多边开发银行融资能力，继续提供发展融资。 ...

IMF总裁：各国必须迅速解决贸易紧张局势。 ...

IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃：各国必须迅速解决贸易紧张局势。 ...