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大越期货油脂早报-20250530
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 01:27
油脂早报 2025-05-30投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号: | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号: | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面:MPOB报告显示,MPOB月报显示马棕3月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨,出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨,月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性,减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%,后续进入增产季,棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差:豆油现货7984,基差292,现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存:5月23日豆油商业库存88万吨,前86万吨,环比+2万吨,同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面:期价运行在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5.主力持仓:豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期:油脂价格震荡整理,国内基本面宽松,国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高,马 棕库存偏中性,需求有所好转,印尼B40促进国内消费,减少可供应量,但国际生柴利润偏低,需求疲软。 国内对加菜加征关税导致菜系领涨,国内油脂基 ...
美国将吊销中国学生签证,外交部回应!
券商中国· 2025-05-29 08:41
5月29日,外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。 毛宁回应,对于中美关系,中方的立场是一贯的。我们希望美方能够同中方相向而行,能够多做建设性的 事情,多做有利于中美关系健康稳定、可持续发展的事情。 来源:长安街知事 责编:王璐璐 校对:刘榕枝 百万用户都在看 凌晨!美联储,重磅发布! 集体飙升!半导体,突传重磅! 午后!日本,重大突发! 刚刚,A股异动!一则消息,突然引爆! 俄乌突发!刚刚,大规模袭击!特朗普"怒了" 违法和不良信息举报电话:0755-83514034 邮箱:bwb@stcn.com 彭博社记者提问,近日,美国决定将开始吊销中国学生的签证,包括"与中国政府有联系或在关键领域学 习"的学生。请问外交部对美方的这一决定有何评论? 毛宁表示,美方以意识形态和国家安全为借口,无理取消中国留学生签证,严重损害中国留学生的合法权 益,干扰两国正常人文交流。中方对此坚决反对,已向美方提出交涉。 毛宁强调,美方这一政治性歧视性做法戳穿了美国一贯标榜的所谓自由开放谎言,只会进一步损害美国的 自身、国际形象和国家信誉。 彭博社记者追问,中方认为针对中国留学生签证的决定是否会对包括中美贸易在内的其他中美关系领域产 生进 ...
白宫摊牌,特朗普开始怕了,美国电话打到北京,中方只同意了一件事
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-27 02:09
Core Viewpoint - The ongoing complexities in US-China relations have escalated, particularly highlighted by recent events that reflect a shift from negotiation to a more confrontational stance in trade discussions [1][3][5]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo acknowledged fears among US officials regarding the impact of tariffs on American businesses during the trade war, indicating a significant shift in the administration's stance [1]. - Following high-level talks in Geneva, the US reduced tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China lowered tariffs from 125% to 10%, demonstrating a mutual concession despite ongoing inflationary pressures in the US [1][5]. - The US has faced rapid price increases, leading to public dissatisfaction with tariff policies, which has further complicated the trade landscape [1]. Group 2: Diplomatic Communications - Recent communications between US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu emphasized the importance of maintaining dialogue, reflecting a strategic necessity amid rising tensions [3]. - China's firm stance against US expectations for a quick resolution indicates a shift towards a more competitive and confrontational approach in trade negotiations [3][5]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The US's fluctuating strategy under the Trump administration, including threats of increased tariffs and restrictions on Chinese technology, highlights the ongoing struggle for dominance in the global market [5][7]. - Analysts suggest that the US's attempts to pressure China through tariffs and technology restrictions are increasingly challenged by China's robust industrial capabilities and large domestic market [5][7]. - The current state of US-China relations may lead to a phase of "competitive coexistence," where structural conflicts persist but the intensity of confrontations could be managed [7].
特朗普喊话访华,王毅已在北京密会美国贵客,12州反水起诉白宫
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-26 15:33
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unprecedented "triple variation" in China-U.S. relations as of 2025, highlighting the contrasting approaches of the Trump administration and China's diplomatic responses [1][3]. Group 1: Diplomatic Engagements - Trump has expressed willingness to visit China to discuss economic and diplomatic issues, yet China has not formally responded, emphasizing the need for equal respect and formal diplomatic processes [3]. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's meeting with U.S. Asia Society President Kevin Rudd signals a nuanced approach, welcoming unofficial communication while criticizing U.S. hegemonic actions [5]. - The dual communication channels established by China, involving both unofficial and official dialogues, reflect a mature and restrained diplomatic strategy [5]. Group 2: Legal and Economic Implications - A coalition of 12 U.S. states has filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration, accusing it of illegally imposing tariffs under the guise of a national emergency, which could have significant economic repercussions [7]. - The economic impact of tariffs is highlighted, with the coalition representing 30% to 40% of U.S. GDP, indicating that the costs of tariffs ultimately fall on American consumers and businesses [7]. - The lawsuit represents a structural conflict between federal and state powers, as the Constitution grants tariff authority to Congress, while Trump has used emergency declarations to bypass legislative processes [9]. Group 3: Future Trends in China-U.S. Relations - The article predicts three major trends in the ongoing China-U.S. competition: an escalation of the tech war, the normalization of tariff conflicts, and a restructuring of global order through China's initiatives like the "BRICS+" mechanism [11]. - China's advancements in self-innovation in areas like 5G and rare earths are expected to mitigate the effects of U.S. technological restrictions [11]. - The article concludes that if the Trump administration continues its tariff-centric approach, it may ultimately find itself isolated in the evolving global landscape [11].
美国终于拨通中方电话,但双方新闻稿都很简单,释放信号不一般
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-26 11:11
Group 1 - The US and China have jointly announced a reduction in tariffs, effectively pausing the ongoing trade war, which has drawn global attention to the geopolitical and economic power dynamics at play [1] - Analysts suggest that the recent agreement indicates that the Trump administration may have overestimated its own strength in the trade negotiations [1] - The communication between US and Chinese officials highlights the importance of maintaining dialogue, despite the simplicity of the statements released by both sides [3] Group 2 - Experts emphasize the necessity of reaching a trade agreement, noting that escalating tariffs would harm both parties' interests [4] - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, expressed a commitment to deepening engagement in the Chinese capital market, signaling a potential thaw in US-China relations [4] - Following the Geneva trade meeting, the tariff confrontation has reverted to the status prior to April 2, indicating a temporary resolution [6] Group 3 - China's holdings of US Treasury bonds decreased by $18.9 billion in March, continuing a trend of diversifying foreign exchange reserves and reducing reliance on US debt [8] - Since April 2022, China's holdings of US debt have remained below $1 trillion, reflecting a significant shift in investment strategy [8] - The trend of reducing US Treasury holdings and increasing gold reserves has been notable, with China previously holding the position of the largest holder of US debt before being surpassed by Japan in 2019 [8]
宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250523
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 01:40
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold price has an unchanged long - term upward trend, with intensified short - and medium - term long - short battles. In the short and medium term, due to the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the strong pattern is broken, but geopolitical factors provide strong support. When short - and medium - term uncertainty is high, silver positions can be allocated as a hedge [3]. - The nickel price is short - term neutral and long - term bearish. Technically, the short - term downward momentum is strong, and the price may continue to weaken [4]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - Short - term view: Oscillation; Medium - term view: Oscillation; Intraday view: Oscillation and weakening; Reference view: Wait - and - see [1][3]. - Core logic: Last night, the gold price fell from a high level. In the context of the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the futures price broke below the 20 - day moving average, but geopolitical factors provided support. It rebounded strongly this week. The gold - silver ratio fluctuates in the same direction as the gold price and is mainly affected by the safe - haven demand for gold. Silver positions can be used as a hedge [3]. Nickel - Short - term view: Decline; Medium - term view: Oscillation; Intraday view: Oscillation and weakening; Reference view: Bearish in the short term [1][4]. - Core logic: Last night, it decreased in price with increasing positions, breaking below the 123,000 mark again. This week, the short - term macro - level benefits were digested by the market. At the industrial level, the upstream ore end remained strong, while the downstream stainless steel lacked continuous upward momentum. Technically, the short - term downward momentum is strong [4].
中美最新通话!
券商中国· 2025-05-23 01:12
百万用户都在看 超级空头,突袭! 最新!特朗普,签了! 突发!下调25个基点,直线跳水! 关税,传来大变数!证监会最新发布!影响一周市场的十大消息 利好来袭!芯片、特朗普,突传重磅! 责编:王璐璐 校对:杨舒欣 违法和不良信息举报电话:0755-83514034 邮箱:bwb@stcn.com 据外交部消息,5月22日,外交部副部长马朝旭同美国常务副国务卿兰多通电话,就中美关系及共同关心 的重要问题交换了意见。双方同意继续保持沟通。 来源:外交部 ...
中联部部长刘建超会见美国亚洲协会会长康京和
news flash· 2025-05-22 13:54
中共中央对外联络部部长刘建超在北京会见美国亚洲协会会长康京和。双方对迄今双方打造的对话平台 表示满意,强调中美关系对两国和世界都至关重要,应坚持相互尊重、平等对话、互利合作,共同推动 中美关系稳定、健康、可持续发展。(中联部新闻办微信公号) ...
美国新任驻华大使庞德伟到任,外交部:希望美方同中方相向而行
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-05-21 05:07
马朝旭强调,希望美方同中方相向而行,共同推动中美关系稳定、健康、可持续发展。 据外交部消息,2025年5月20日,外交部副部长马朝旭会见美国新任驻华大使庞德伟。双方就当前中美 关系及共同关心的重要问题坦诚、深入交换了意见。 马朝旭强调,中方按照习近平主席提出的相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢三原则看待和处理中美关系, 坚定维护自身主权安全发展利益。希望美方同中方相向而行,共同推动中美关系稳定、健康、可持续发 展。 当地时间4月29日,美国参议院以67票赞成、29票反对的投票结果确认庞德伟出任美国驻华大使。 5月15日,庞德伟抵达北京。同日,中国外交部发言人林剑在例行记者会上表示,愿为庞德伟大使来华 履职提供便利。林剑表示,中方对中美关系的立场一以贯之,我们始终坚持相互尊重、和平共处、合作 共赢原则来看待和处理中美关系。希望美方与中方相向而行。 曾是唯一有500强CEO资历的参议员 根据庞德伟的官方简历,在成为大使之前,庞德伟于2015至2021年间在美国参议院担任代表佐治亚州的 参议员。他当选时,是参议院里唯一一位拥有《财富》500强公司首席执行官资历的议员。在参议员任 期中,他曾经是军事、外交、银行、预算、以及 ...
摩根大通中国市场峰会:三大关键投资主题
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-05-21 02:29
Core Insights - The Morgan Stanley China Summit is set to begin this week with over 2,800 participants, reflecting a more optimistic market sentiment compared to last year, which was focused on hope for policy shifts and growth stabilization that have since materialized [1] - The consensus for EPS growth for the MSCI China Index is projected at 8.3% for 2025 and 11.8% for 2026, with potential upside risks driven by increased AI applications [1][2] Group 1: Investment Themes - Three key investment themes highlighted by Morgan Stanley include: (1) AI innovations in enterprises, particularly in robotics and autonomous driving; (2) consumer demand supported by government policies; (3) the current state and future trajectory of US-China relations [2][10] Group 2: Market Positioning - Emerging market funds have returned to neutral positioning in Hong Kong/China markets, with a median overweight of +0.2 percentage points, ending a two-year low allocation period [4] - Global and EAFE funds remain significantly underweight in the Chinese market, requiring approximately $475 billion in long positions to adjust to neutral [4] Group 3: Market Performance - The MSCI China Index has risen 19% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500 Index (+14%) and emerging markets (+10%), with a year-to-date increase of 16% [5][9] - Recent performance has lagged slightly, with a 9% increase in the past month compared to the S&P 500's 15% rise [5] Group 4: Valuation Metrics - The MSCI China Index's P/E ratio is currently at 12.6x, and P/B ratio at 1.6x, indicating valuations are no longer a barrier to market growth [6] - There are still significant value opportunities, particularly in the consumer discretionary sector, which is trading at a 30% discount to its 10-year average [6][11] Group 5: Consumer Sector Insights - The Chinese government is shifting focus from supply-side growth to boosting demand, which is crucial for EPS growth in consumer companies [10] - There is a notable disconnect between the earnings growth and stock performance of leading Chinese consumer companies, presenting attractive buying opportunities [11] Group 6: AI and Innovation - The focus on AI applications is expected to grow, with significant interest in "physical AI" such as robotics and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) [14][15] - Companies like UBTECH and Unitree are leading in the humanoid robotics space, with a projected market size of $5 billion for humanoid robots [14] Group 7: US-China Relations - The strategic competition between the US and China extends beyond trade, with deep-rooted geopolitical tensions and a spectrum of potential outcomes ranging from a grand bargain to a new cold war [18][20][22] - The current geopolitical landscape poses risks for companies operating in both markets, with implications for their strategic decisions and operations [18]