Core Insights - UK retail sales surged in April, continuing a strong trend from earlier in the year, indicating consumer resilience amid rising bills and global trade tensions [1] - Retail sales increased by 1.2% month-on-month in April, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth, surpassing economists' expectations of 0.3% [1] - The warm and sunny weather in April contributed to the retail sales growth, with strong performance across most sectors [1] Retail Performance - Categories such as food and alcohol saw sales growth, reflecting consumer spending despite economic challenges [1] - The report coincided with the period following the announcement of tariffs by Trump, during which UK households faced significant increases in utility bills, train fares, and local government taxes [1] Consumer Confidence - A separate report indicated a slight rebound in UK consumer confidence in May after being impacted by Trump's tariffs in April, with consumers feeling more optimistic about their financial and economic situations [1] - Consumers expressed a greater willingness to purchase big-ticket items such as cars and furniture [1] Economic Outlook - According to Alex Kerr from Capital Economics, this marks the first time since 2015 (excluding the pandemic period) that retail sales have increased for four consecutive months, although he cautioned that this growth may not be sustainable [2] - Following the release of stronger-than-expected data, the British pound maintained its upward trend against the US dollar, rising by 0.3% to 1.3461, nearing its highest level since 2022 [2]

Core Insights - The overall profit growth of listed insurance companies in Q1 2025 shows significant divergence, primarily influenced by base effect differences, while the liability side remains stable. The equity market is identified as a critical factor for performance, with regulatory policies fostering a recovery in market confidence, presenting opportunities in the non-bank sector [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q1 2025 net profit on a comparable basis increased by 1.4% year-on-year, with non-annualized ROE slightly declining from 4.2% in Q1 2024 to 4.0% in Q1 2025, which is better than previously pessimistic expectations [1] - The average net assets attributable to shareholders of A-share listed insurance companies remained flat compared to the beginning of the year, with life insurance showing the highest growth at 4.5%, while Xinhua reported a decline of 17.0% [1] - The ratio of other comprehensive income to net profit was -98.0%, with life insurance having the smallest difference at -20.9% [1] - Underwriting profit in Q1 2025 grew by 27.3% year-on-year, mainly due to a low base in the same period last year, with life insurance performing well and property insurance seeing a significant increase in underwriting profit [1] - The average annualized net investment return rate for listed insurance companies in Q1 2025 was 3.08%, slightly down from 3.19% in Q1 2024, while the average annualized total investment return rate was 4.06%, down from 4.08% [1] Group 2: Life Insurance Business - The average NBV growth rate for listed insurance companies in Q1 2025 was approximately 20%, with value rate improvement being the core reason [2] - NBV year-on-year growth rates from high to low were: Xinhua (67.9%), Ping An (34.9%), PICC (31.5%), Taikang (11.3%), and China Life (4.8%) [2] - New single premium growth showed significant divergence, with individual insurance affected by the "opening red" period, while the structure of bank insurance new single premiums improved [2] - The improvement in value rates is attributed to: 1) a reduction in scheduled interest rates leading to a stable decline in overall liability costs; 2) optimization of product and term structures; 3) active cost reduction and efficiency enhancement [2] Group 3: Property Insurance Business - In Q1 2025, listed insurance companies achieved property insurance service revenue of 249.635 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, with a significant decrease in the combined underwriting cost ratio to 95.7%, down 2.8 percentage points [3] - Underwriting profit under the new standards reached 10.653 billion yuan, nearly doubling year-on-year, primarily due to a low base in the previous year and challenges from adverse weather conditions [3] - The total premium income from auto insurance grew by 3.2% year-on-year, with effective cost control contributing to improved underwriting profits [3] - Data from the Ministry of Emergency Management indicated that natural disasters in Q1 2025 primarily involved geological disasters, with direct economic losses of approximately 10.16 billion yuan, significantly lower than 23.76 billion yuan in Q1 2024, leading to improved claims ratios, especially in February [3]

Core Insights - The survey indicates a slight improvement in consumer confidence in the UK for May, likely influenced by interest rate cuts and easing global trade tensions [1] - The GfK consumer confidence index rose from -23 in April to -20 in May, reflecting a more optimistic sentiment regarding financial conditions and overall economic outlook [1] - Despite the improvement, the index remains significantly below the long-term average of -11, indicating ongoing concerns among consumers [1] Economic Factors - The Bank of England's interest rate cut on May 8 is seen as a contributing factor to the improved consumer sentiment [1] - The partial easing of the trade war tensions, particularly involving the US, has also played a role in alleviating consumer concerns [1] - Neil Beleramy, GfK's consumer insight director, notes that while some risks, especially inflation, persist, there is a noticeable improvement in consumer emotions [1]

美国5月商业信心有所改善 前景悲观情绪得到缓解 金十数据5月22日讯，标普全球市场情报公司首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson表示，美国5月份商业 信心从4月份令人担忧的低迷中有所改善，对未来一年前景的悲观情绪有所缓解，这主要归功于暂停上 调关税。由于需求回升，目前的产出增长也从4月份的近期低点回升。然而，市场情绪和产出增长仍然 相对低迷，至少5月份的部分回升可能与企业及其客户寻求提前应对进一步可能出现的关税相关问题有 关。特别是，对与关税相关的供应短缺和价格上涨的担忧，导致自18年前首次有调查数据以来，投入品 库存的累积达到了有史以来的最高水平。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price of $14 [3][12]. Core Views - The company's 1Q25 revenue decreased by 5.0% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, while adjusted net profit was RMB 2.3 billion, maintaining a high profit margin of 8.8%. Active user numbers fell by 4% year-on-year, but SVIP users grew by 18%, contributing 51% of online GMV. Total order volume declined by 6%, with GMV remaining stable, and the apparel category showed positive growth [2][3]. - For 2Q25, the company provides cautious guidance, expecting revenue to decline by 5% to 0%. However, there are signs of improved consumer confidence, with sales momentum picking up in April and May. The company remains cautious about the 618 sales due to ongoing promotional activities and consumer sensitivity to subsidies. The company anticipates double-digit growth in SVIP numbers for the year, which is expected to help return to growth in the second half of the year [2][3]. - The company has returned over $400 million to shareholders year-to-date and commits to returning no less than 75% of 2024 profits to shareholders, corresponding to an attractive return rate of approximately 12.7% [2]. Financial Summary - The report forecasts FY25E revenue at RMB 107.048 billion and FY26E revenue at RMB 111.685 billion, with corresponding P/E ratios of 6.1x and 5.8x [3][5]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to be RMB 8.806 billion for FY25E and RMB 9.285 billion for FY26E, with a stable profit margin expected throughout the year [5][11]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately $7.374 billion, with a recent average trading volume of $62.4 million over the past three months [5][12].

摘要 一问：被忽视的服务消费修复症结？除收入影响外，闲暇时间减少或是更主要的消费掣肘。 相比商品消费，服务消费恢复偏慢；剔除收入与疫情影响后，服务消费倾向也明显低于历史趋势。 2024 年，疫情对消费场景的约束消退，但服务消费复苏节奏较慢，人均服务性消费较历史趋势缺口为 13.9pct，而商品、可选商品消费的缺口仅2.9pct、6.2pct；从消费倾向看，商品消费、特别是可选商品恢 复情况均好于服务消费，意味着收入或并非约束服务消费修复的主因。 商品、服务消费修复差异较大，可能的原因是"内卷"令工作时间拉长，挤占闲暇时间，居民每日有酬劳 动时间增加2小时。 商品与服务消费对场景的依赖程度显著不同，其中商品消费不受时空限制、可通过 网购实现，而服务消费具有及时性特点、高度依赖闲暇时间。但近年工作时间拉长对闲暇时间形成挤 占，2023年全体居民日均有酬劳动时间为6小时23分、较2018年增加119分钟。 工作时间拉长导致居民消费更多向假期集中，但法定休假天数偏少。 相比海外，2023年我国城镇居民周 均工作时间增加至48.7小时，显著高于日本(32.6小时)、韩国(36.6小时)；导致居民消费更多向假期集中， 测 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that France's INSEE business confidence index for May is at 96, which is below the expected 97 [1] - The INSEE manufacturing confidence index for May is reported at 97, also falling short of the anticipated 99 [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that France's INSEE business confidence index for May is reported at 96, which is below the expected value of 97 and unchanged from the previous value of 96 [1]

Core Insights - The French INSEE manufacturing confidence index for May is reported at 97, which is below the expected 99 and the previous value of 99 [1] Group 1 - The manufacturing confidence index indicates a decline in sentiment among manufacturers in France [1] - The current index value of 97 suggests a weaker outlook compared to market expectations [1] - The unchanged previous value of 99 highlights a notable shift in confidence levels [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a low opening followed by upward fluctuations, with sectors such as beauty care, electronics, media, and retail performing well [1] - As of May 21, 394 listed companies announced repurchase and increase plans since Q2 2025, a growth of over 60% compared to 246 companies in Q1 [1] - The net reduction in industrial capital decreased to 5.975 billion from 6.799 billion, indicating a recovery in investor confidence [1] Group 2 - The A500 ETF (512050) is positioned to help investors easily access core A-share assets, tracking the CSI A500 Index with a balanced industry allocation and leading company selection strategy [2] - The ETF combines value and growth attributes, suggesting long-term investment potential [2]