1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings 2. Core Views of the Report - The dollar index is expected to move in a volatile manner due to EU sanctions on Russia and political events in France and Ukraine [14][15] - The upward trend of US stocks remains intact, and investors can buy on dips after short - term corrections, supported by tech giants' AI capital expenditure and interest - rate cut expectations [18][19] - For stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate evenly among various stock indices, considering policies to expand service consumption and industrial profit data [20][22] - In the bond market, unilateral long positions should be taken with caution. Investors with stock positions can consider long bonds to hedge potential stock price corrections [24][25] - For commodities, different investment suggestions are provided for each category based on their specific supply - demand fundamentals and market conditions 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Ukraine and the US will hold a meeting on the 29th to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine. France's Prime Minister will meet with the opposition to avoid a trust vote. The EU is considering secondary sanctions on Russia [12][13][14] - The dollar index is expected to move in a volatile manner due to these events [15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - NVIDIA's data center revenue in the last fiscal quarter was lackluster, and the revenue guidance was not impressive. Fed official Williams hinted at a possible adjustment in interest - rate policy [16][17] - The short - term adjustment of US stocks is to release valuation pressure, and the upward trend remains intact. Investors can buy on dips [18][19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September, and jointly formulate measures to promote service exports with relevant departments [20] - In July, the year - on - year decline in industrial enterprise profits narrowed. It is recommended to allocate evenly among various stock indices [21][22] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - From January to July, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. The central bank conducted a 3799 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 2361 billion yuan [23][24] - Unless the stock market continues to adjust or the central bank's monetary policy turns unexpectedly loose, treasury bonds lack the opportunity for continuous growth. Unilateral long positions should be taken with caution [24][25] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In September, the estimated arrival of imported soybeans at domestic oil mills is about 10.3025 million tons, and the estimated arrivals in October and November are 9 million tons and 7.5 million tons respectively [26] - The USDA will release its export sales report. Sino - US relations are the most important uncertain factor affecting the price trend. The price of soybean meal is expected to move in a volatile manner [27] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From August 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 36.41% month - on - month. Malaysia has formulated an emergency plan for agricultural exports according to EU regulations [28][29] - The short - term trend of the oil market is expected to be volatile, waiting for more data [30] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - New cotton picking in Xinjiang is expected to be advanced. Brazil's cotton harvesting progress is 60.3%, and the growth progress of US cotton is slow but the quality is high [31][32][33] - Before the new cotton is listed, the supply is tight, which will support the price in the short term. Zheng cotton is expected to move in a volatile manner [34] 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to July, 19,800 old urban residential areas were newly started for renovation. In July, transportation fixed - asset investment was 306.1 billion yuan. In August, the retail and wholesale of passenger cars increased year - on - year [35][37][38] - Steel prices are expected to move in a volatile manner, and a short - term volatile trading strategy is recommended [38][39] 3.2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the southwest market is stable. The coking coal futures price is expected to adjust in the short term but has strong support below [40][42] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - From August 21 - 27, the开机率 of the corn starch industry decreased slightly, and the inventory also decreased slightly. The current inventory is at a high level, and the seasonal de - stocking inflection point may be postponed [43] - The price difference between corn starch and corn has fallen to a low level, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity to widen it [44] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of August 22, the inventory of corn in the northern port continued to decline, and the grain inventory in the southern port increased slightly month - on - month [45] - Short positions can be held for a while, and attention should be paid to factors affecting supply and demand [45] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - In the first half of 2025, Muyuan Co., Ltd. had significant growth in revenue and net profit. The short - term trend of pig futures is expected to be volatile and weak, and investors can pay attention to the reverse - spread opportunity [47][48] 3.2.9 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - In July, the coal import volume of the Philippines decreased. The price of steam coal is expected to continue its seasonal weakness [49][50] 3.2.10 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Fortescue's iron ore shipments in FY25 reached 198.4 million tons, and its cost decreased. The iron ore price is expected to move in a volatile manner, and the iron - making volume is expected to decline next week and then rebound [51][52] 3.2.11 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The main producing areas of red dates in Xinjiang have entered the sugar - increasing period. The price of red date futures is expected to move in a narrow range around 11,400 yuan/ton, and investors are advised to wait and see [54][55] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On August 26, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $38.74/ton. The US may list lead as a critical mineral, and the regeneration rate in September may decline [56] - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [57] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On August 26, the LME0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $4.61/ton. Zijin Mining's zinc production increased. The stock market decline affected zinc prices, and the domestic supply is loosening [58][59] - It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and pay attention to medium - term positive - spread opportunities [60] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The phosphoric acid iron - lithium industry proposed to resist price competition and strengthen capacity self - discipline. The Bougouni lithium mine in Mali was attacked [61][62] - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and positive - spread trading [63] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The second - stage pumping operation of the Kakula mine is about to start. Canada is researching a financing plan for key mineral projects [64][65] - The copper price is expected to remain high and volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips [67] 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Eramet plans to increase its nickel ore production to 42 million tons this year. The price of nickel ore is expected to decline in September - October, and the nickel price is expected to have short - term band - trading opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities [69][71] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - From August 16 - 22, US EIA commercial crude oil and refined product inventories decreased. The oil price is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term, and attention should be paid to the seasonal inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [72][73] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On August 27, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased slightly. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is stable. The price of low - concentration liquid caustic soda is expected to remain stable in the near future [74][75] - Investors should be cautious when chasing high prices [76] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp decreased. The pulp market is expected to move in a weak and volatile manner [77][78] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder decreased. The PVC futures price is expected to move in a volatile manner [79][81] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - From August 20 - 27, the inventory of styrene in East China ports increased. The styrene market in September is expected to improve marginally, but there may be inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter [82][83] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable, with individual slight decreases. The inventory of bottle chips is accelerating to decline, and attention should be paid to the pressure on processing fees from plant restart and new capacity in September [84][86] 3.2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Portugal plans to invest 3.97 billion euros to upgrade its ports. The spot freight rate is weakening, and the demand is decreasing. The freight rate is expected to continue to decline [87][88][89]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3800.35 points, down 1.76% [4][9] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12295.07 points, down 1.43%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.69% [4][9] - The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 31,978 billion yuan, showing an increase compared to the previous day [4][9] - Among 30 sectors, 29 saw declines, with real estate, comprehensive finance, and textile and apparel sectors showing the largest gains, while only the communication sector recorded an increase [4][9] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices saw slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.32% and the S&P 500 reaching a new historical high with a 0.24% increase [2][4] - The Nasdaq rose by 0.21%, with notable gains from companies like Salesforce and Chevron [2][4] - Chinese concept stocks generally declined, with Tiger Brokers dropping nearly 10% and Canadian Solar falling over 9% [2][4] Key News - The Shanghai government is accelerating the renovation of urban villages, implementing various measures for overall project transformation [11][12] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued guidelines to optimize business access and promote the satellite communication industry, aiming for significant growth by 2030 [13][14] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 1.7% decline in profits for large-scale industrial enterprises from January to July, with state-owned enterprises seeing a 7.5% drop [14][15] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to introduce several policy measures next month to expand service consumption [19][20]

Group 1: Service Trade Development - The 2025 Service Trade Fair will focus on the theme "Digital Intelligence Leading, Service Trade Renewed," featuring six types of activities including global summits, exhibitions, forums, and promotional events [1] - In the first half of the year, China's service trade import and export totaled 3.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, with service exports reaching 1.7 trillion yuan, up 15% [2] - The proportion of service exports in total foreign trade exports reached 11.5%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] Group 2: Policy Support and Future Outlook - The Ministry of Commerce will enhance policy support for service trade, implementing measures from the State Council's opinions on promoting high-quality service trade development [3] - A series of policies to promote service exports will be introduced, focusing on fiscal, financial, and facilitation aspects to optimize the policy environment [3] - Overall, service trade is expected to continue growing throughout the year, with an ongoing optimization of trade structure [4] Group 3: Service Consumption Initiatives - The Service Trade Fair serves as a significant platform for expanding service consumption, with over 50 countries and 20 international organizations participating [5] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to implement a consumption action plan, introducing policies to enhance service consumption and improve service supply capabilities [5][6] - There will be a focus on increasing high-quality service supply through opening up key sectors such as telecommunications, healthcare, and education [6]

Group 1 - The 2025 China International Service Trade Fair will be held in Beijing from September 10 to 14, focusing on "Digital Intelligence Leading, Service Trade Renewed" as its annual theme [1] - The fair aims to enhance its role as a platform for expanding openness, deepening cooperation, and leading innovation in service trade [1][2] - Nearly 2,000 enterprises are expected to participate, including around 500 Fortune 500 companies, covering 27 of the top 30 service trade countries and regions [2] Group 2 - The fair will feature six types of activities, including a global service trade summit, exhibitions, forums, and promotional events, emphasizing international participation and the value of an open platform [2][3] - The event will showcase over 190 new products and achievements, including groundbreaking technologies such as a 3D-printed vascular stent and a professional quantum computer [3] Group 3 - China's service trade is projected to continue growing, with the total import and export value reaching a historical high in the first half of the year [4] - The World Trade Organization forecasts a 4.0% increase in global service exports by 2025, with China's travel service import and export scale exceeding 1 trillion yuan, growing at 12.3% [4] Group 4 - The fair will play a significant role in expanding service consumption, with policies aimed at enhancing service supply capabilities and stimulating new service consumption growth [6] - The event will also focus on technology empowerment and investment promotion, showcasing new digital and intelligent consumption scenarios [6]

证券研究报告 2025 年 8 月 28 日 星期四 【A 股市场大势研判】 大盘冲高回落，日成交额超 3 万亿 周三，市场全天冲高回落，日成交额超 3 万亿。早盘三大指数集体高开，随后市场 震荡上行，午后大盘跳水回落。截至收盘，三大指数集体收绿，上证指数领跌。盘面上， CPO 等算力硬件股维持强势，芯片股冲高回落，稀土永磁概念股表现活跃。下跌方面，地 产股展开调整。总体上个股跌多涨少，通信、电子、有色金属、公用事业和计算机等行业 表现靠前；美容护理、房地产、综合、建筑材料和纺织服饰等行业表现靠后。概念指数方 面，F5G 概念、共封装光学(CPO)、稀土永磁、智能音箱和 WiFi6 等板块表现靠前；钛白 粉概念、兵装重组概念、天津自贸区、太赫兹和基因测序等板块表现靠后。 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3800.35 | -1.76% | -68.03 | | | 深证成指 | 12295.07 | -1.43% | -178.10 | | | 沪深 300 | 4386.1 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 China International Service Trade Fair will be held in Beijing from September 10 to 14, with preparations nearly complete [2] - In the first half of this year, China's service import and export total reached 3.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, marking a historical high for the same period [2] Group 1: Event Overview - The fair will feature over 70 countries and international organizations, with Australia as the first guest country, showcasing the largest exhibition group to date [3] - Nearly 2,000 enterprises are expected to participate, including around 500 Fortune Global 500 companies, covering 27 of the top 30 countries and regions in service trade [3] - The theme for this year's fair is "Digital Intelligence Leading, Service Trade Renewed," focusing on technology and intelligent applications [3] Group 2: Innovations and Highlights - More than 190 new products and achievements will be launched, including the world's first 3D-printed polymer fatigue-resistant absorbable vascular stent and the first domestic professional optical quantum computer exceeding one thousand bits [4] - The fair will also showcase service demonstration cases in artificial intelligence and green innovation, promoting high commercial value and replicable applications [4] Group 3: Economic Impact - In the first seven months of this year, China's service retail sales increased by 5.2%, with service consumption continuing to rise [4] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to introduce policies to expand service consumption, utilizing fiscal and financial measures to enhance service supply capabilities [4][5] Group 4: Policy Support - The Ministry of Commerce will strengthen policy support for service trade, including financial and tax measures to promote service exports [5][6] - Regulatory facilitation will be improved, including enhancing customs supervision and promoting cross-border data flow [6]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policy measures next month to expand service consumption, utilizing fiscal and financial tools to enhance service supply capacity and stimulate new service consumption growth [1][2] - In the first half of the year, China's travel service import and export scale exceeded 1 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 12.3%, and is expected to maintain rapid growth for the entire year [1][3] - The Ministry of Commerce is working on policies to promote service exports, which will be issued soon, focusing on fiscal, financial, regulatory facilitation, and international market expansion [1][2] Group 2 - The new policies will enhance support for key areas and projects in service exports, optimize tax refund procedures, and improve the efficiency of export tax refund applications [2][3] - The policies aim to fill the gap in service trade export-specific policies and enhance the international competitiveness of China's service industry [3][4] - The service retail sector has seen a year-on-year growth of 5.2% from January to July, indicating a shift towards a balanced consumption pattern between goods and services [3][4] Group 3 - The upcoming service trade fair will feature over 70 countries and international organizations, with Australia as the first guest country, and nearly 2000 enterprises expected to participate [4][5] - The 2025 service trade fair will focus on the theme "Digital Intelligence Leading, Service Trade Renewing," featuring various activities including global service trade summits and exhibitions [5][6] - Over 190 new products and achievements will be launched at the fair, showcasing advancements in technology and innovative services [6]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policy measures next month to expand service consumption, coordinating with relevant departments [1] - The measures will utilize fiscal and financial tools to optimize and enhance service supply capacity, aiming to stimulate new service consumption growth [1] - The "Su Super" league's first six rounds generated a total service revenue of 37.96 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.7% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the construction of a high-quality development pilot area for urban-rural integration in the Zhuxi metropolitan area, with a focus on collaboration among Zhuhai, Zhongshan, and Jiangmen to enhance regional integration and development [1][2] - The meeting highlighted the need for improved connectivity through cross-city road construction and the enhancement of internal transportation networks to elevate regional accessibility [1] - The plan aims to leverage cultural and tourism integration, promoting local historical resources and creating distinctive cultural tourism brands to enrich tourism product offerings [1][2] Group 2 - The development plan for the Zhuxi metropolitan area identifies existing challenges such as weak core city driving force and insufficient industrial collaboration and innovation resources [3] - The initiative to establish a high-quality development demonstration area for urban-rural integration was first proposed in September last year, aiming for regional project collaboration and institutional innovation [3] - Recent discussions among Zhuhai, Zhongshan, and Jiangmen have focused on building a pilot area for urban-rural integration, emphasizing infrastructure connectivity, industrial collaboration, and shared public services [3] Group 3 - The Guangdong Provincial Department of Culture and Tourism plans to launch a "Golden Autumn Cultural Tourism Consumption Season" starting September 12, with a budget of 20 million yuan for issuing cultural tourism consumption vouchers [6] - The initiative aims to stimulate local and national tourism, benefiting residents and visitors alike [6]

★ 宏观动态 ★ 外交部回应李在明涉华言论 8月27日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。韩国《中央日报》记者提问，韩国与中美两国保持着亲密的合作，同时 也保持着一定的距离。在这种情况下，韩国总统李在明表示，韩国不能继续走"安全靠美国，经济靠中国"的路线，这样 的逻辑不可能再维持下去了。他的这一表态引发广泛关注。请问中方对此有何评论？ 上海发布关于加快推进本市城中村改造工作的实施意见 郭嘉昆表示，一个健康、稳定、持续深化的中韩关系，符合两国人民的根本利益，也有利于地区乃至世界的和平稳定与 发展繁荣，这是中韩双方的共识。"中韩关系发展源于双方共同利益，不针对第三方，也不应受第三方因素的影响。"郭 嘉昆指出，中方对韩政策保持连续性、稳定性。希望韩方同中方相向而行，共同努力推动中韩战略合作伙伴关系持续、 健康、稳定地发展。 商务部：将于9月出台扩大服务消费的若干政策措施 8月27日，商务部副部长盛秋平在国新办新闻发布会上指出，我国消费形态已经逐步转向以商品消费和服务消费并重的阶 段，下一步，商务部将加强政策促进，形成工作合力。盛秋平指出，今年以来，商务部发挥促进服务消费发展工作协调 机制作用，围绕银发旅游开出了银发 ...