Core Insights - The financial support for the real economy in Henan Province remains stable, with a rapid growth in inclusive micro and small loans [1] Group 1: Deposit Data - As of the end of August, the total balance of deposits in Henan Province reached 115,993.7 billion yuan, with RMB deposits at 115,557.1 billion yuan [1] - Household deposits amounted to 82,020 billion yuan, while non-financial enterprise deposits were 17,494 billion yuan [1] - Fiscal deposits totaled 1,102.9 billion yuan, and deposits from non-bank financial institutions were 3,964.2 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Loan Data - The total balance of loans in Henan Province stood at 92,876.5 billion yuan, with RMB loans at 92,622.2 billion yuan by the end of August [1] - Household loans accounted for 35,121.8 billion yuan, while loans to enterprises and institutions reached 57,342.3 billion yuan [1] - Loans from non-bank financial institutions were recorded at 39 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Inclusive Micro and Small Loans - The balance of inclusive micro and small loans in Henan Province reached 1.27 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.03%, indicating a sustained rapid growth [1] Group 4: Social Financing - The cumulative increase in social financing scale for the first seven months was 6,272.7 billion yuan, providing a comprehensive view of financial support for the real economy [1]

Economic Overview - China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, despite challenges from global trade uncertainties and the transition of economic drivers [1] - The necessity for stable growth policies in the fourth quarter is increasing, as indicated by the recent economic data [2] Financing and Credit - The growth rate of social financing decreased in August, with a total increment of 25,693 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 4,630 billion yuan [3] - The demand for credit remains weak, with new loans amounting to 6,233 billion yuan in August, down by 4,178 billion yuan year-on-year [3][4] - Government bond financing has also seen a decline, indicating that the effectiveness of active fiscal policies needs to be supported in key quarters [5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% year-on-year from January to August, with infrastructure investment growing by 2% and manufacturing investment by 5.1%, while real estate investment fell by 12.9% [6][7] - The government is focusing on stabilizing investment in key industries, particularly manufacturing, to support economic recovery [7] Consumption Patterns - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, although certain sectors like dining faced challenges [7][8] - The recovery in consumption is expected to take time, and effective demand needs to be stimulated [8] Policy Recommendations - There is a growing need for the introduction of stable growth policies in the fourth quarter, with potential measures including the issuance of special government bonds and the use of policy financial tools [2][8] - Structural policy tools may be accelerated to support key industries and foreign trade, while fiscal policies may need to be intensified [8]

Group 1: Credit and Financing Trends - In August, the growth rate of RMB loans decreased to 6.8% from the previous 6.9%[1] - The stock of social financing grew by 8.8% year-on-year, down from 9.0% previously, ending an upward trend[1] - Government bonds contributed approximately 1.30 percentage points to the increase in social financing, while RMB loans had a negative contribution of about -0.32 percentage points[1] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Market Impact - M1 growth rose to 6.0%, while M2 remained stable at 8.8%, narrowing the gap between M1 and M2 growth rates to -2.8%[2] - Household deposits continued to shift towards non-bank financial institutions, with household deposit growth declining[2] - The impact of monetary flow on capital markets is influenced by various factors, including employment expectations and asset price forecasts[3] Group 3: Risks and Future Outlook - The potential risk of changes in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations could impact the market[4] - The effectiveness and timing of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate and stock markets will be crucial for future loan growth[3]

Financing Data - In August 2025, the social financing scale increased by 25,668 billion yuan, a decrease of 4,655 billion yuan compared to the same period last year[2] - Cumulative social financing for the first eight months of 2025 reached 265,575 billion yuan, an increase of 46,567 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating strong overall performance supported by government bond issuance[2] - New bills increased by 1,973 billion yuan in August, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1,322 billion yuan and a month-on-month increase of 3,611 billion yuan, suggesting a recovery in short-term financing demand from the real economy[2] Credit and Loan Data - New RMB loans in August amounted to 5,900 billion yuan, an increase of 6,400 billion yuan month-on-month, but a decrease of 3,100 billion yuan year-on-year[3] - Short-term loans for enterprises showed significant improvement, with a month-on-month increase of 2,600 billion yuan and a year-on-year increase of 6,200 billion yuan, indicating heightened business activity[3] - Resident short-term loans increased by 3932 billion yuan month-on-month, driven by seasonal consumption demand and supportive consumption policies[3] Monetary Supply - M2 growth rate remained stable at 8.8% in August, supported by fiscal policy and reasonable growth in social financing and loans[3] - M1 growth rate increased to 6.0% year-on-year, reflecting improved business activity and increased liquidity for enterprises[3] - The M2-M1 gap narrowed to 2.8%, indicating enhanced liquidity and operational efficiency among enterprises[3] Deposit Trends - Household deposits decreased by 600 billion yuan year-on-year in August, while deposits in non-bank financial institutions increased by 5,500 billion yuan, indicating a trend of "deposit migration" towards non-bank sectors[5] - The trend of deposit migration is expected to continue due to declining deposit interest rates and attractive returns in the capital market, with A-share new account openings reaching 2.65 million in August, a 35% month-on-month increase[5][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August 2025, financial data showed that fiscal policy continued to exert force in advance, the total financing volume increased, and corporate financing improved, but the recovery foundation of real - sector financing demand was still weak and needed to be consolidated. Future credit demand depends on the progress of fiscal expenditures such as ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and the effect of the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" in the real estate market. - For the bond market, the data reflected the overall weakness of real - sector financing demand, which should have supported the bond market. However, the bond market experienced a significant adjustment that month. In a pessimistic sentiment, the market interpreted the structural improvement of the data relatively positively. Looking ahead, with the weak endogenous economic momentum, the central bank's monetary policy will remain moderately loose, and the bond market does not have the basis for a long - term sharp decline. [1][21] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 8 - month Social Financing Data Analysis - **Overall Social Financing Scale**: The stock of social financing scale was 433.66 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 8.8%. The cumulative increment of social financing scale in the first eight months was 26.56 trillion yuan, 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. In August, the increment of social financing scale was 2.57 trillion yuan, 1.44 trillion yuan more than the previous month, indicating a recovery in financing demand after the low point in July, but still 463 billion yuan less than the same period last year. [5] - **Financing Structure**: - **Government Bonds**: Net financing of government bonds was 1.37 trillion yuan, still the core support. However, affected by the high base last year, the year - on - year contribution decreased marginally (a decrease of 251.9 billion yuan), ending the previous consecutive over - increase trend. - **Loans to the Real Economy**: RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 623.3 billion yuan, 417.8 billion yuan less than the same period last year, indicating that real - sector financing demand still needed further boosting. - **Direct Financing**: Bond net financing was 134.3 billion yuan, 36 billion yuan less than the same period last year; stock financing was 45.7 billion yuan, 32.5 billion yuan more than the same period last year, which was in line with the current situation of a strong stock market and a weak bond market. - **Off - balance - sheet Bill Financing**: It was relatively active. The monthly new increase was 215.8 billion yuan, nearly 100 billion yuan more than the same period last year; the new increase in undiscounted bank acceptance bills was 197.4 billion yuan, 132.3 billion yuan more than the same period last year, which to some extent replaced part of the on - balance - sheet bill demand. [5] Money Supply - The balance of broad money (M2) was 331.98 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 8.8%, the same as the previous month; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 111.23 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 6.0%, 0.4 percentage points faster than the previous month. The M2 - M1 gap further narrowed to 2.8 percentage points, the lowest since June 2021, indicating an increase in the activation degree of funds. [11] RMB Loans - In August, new RMB loans were 590 billion yuan. The intensity of credit delivery increased compared with July, with a month - on - month increase of 640 billion yuan, but still 310 billion yuan less than the same period last year. - **Corporate Loans**: The structure of corporate loans improved. Medium - and long - term loans increased by 470 billion yuan, basically close to the level of the same period last year. Short - term loans increased by 70 billion yuan, 260 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Bill financing decreased by 492 billion yuan year - on - year, indicating a reduction in bill - padding by banks and relatively optimized credit quality. - **Resident Loans**: Resident loans were still weak. Short - term loans increased by 10 billion yuan, 61.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year; medium - and long - term loans increased by 20 billion yuan, 100 billion yuan less than the same period last year, reflecting that the overall momentum of consumption and housing purchase demand was not strong. [16]

Group 1 - As of the end of August, the broad money supply (M2) reached 331.98 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 111.23 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6% [1] - The cash in circulation (M0) was 13.34 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.7% [1] Group 2 - The total social financing increment for the first eight months was 26.56 trillion yuan, which is 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 12.93 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 4.85 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [2] - Net financing from government bonds was 10.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.63 trillion yuan year-on-year [2] Group 3 - By the end of August, the total social financing stock was 433.66 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [3] - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 265.42 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [3] - The balance of government bonds increased by 21.1% year-on-year, reaching 91.36 trillion yuan [3] Group 4 - The balance of RMB loans as of the end of August was 269.1 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [4] - In the first eight months, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 711 billion yuan [4] - Loans to enterprises increased by 12.22 trillion yuan during the same period [4] Group 5 - The balance of RMB deposits reached 322.73 trillion yuan by the end of August, with a year-on-year growth of 8.6% [5] - In the first eight months, RMB deposits increased by 20.5 trillion yuan, with household deposits rising by 9.77 trillion yuan [5] - Non-financial enterprise deposits increased by 610.6 billion yuan during this period [5] Group 6 - The weighted average interbank lending rate in August was 1.4%, down 0.37 percentage points from the same period last year [6] - The weighted average rate for pledged repos was 1.41%, which is 0.38 percentage points lower year-on-year [6] Group 7 - The one-year loan market quoted rate was 3.00% as of August 20, down 0.1 percentage points from the end of last year [7] - The quoted rate for loans over five years was 3.50%, also down 0.1 percentage points compared to the end of last year [7] Group 8 - As of the end of August, the RMB exchange rate index fell by 4.83% compared to the end of last year [8] - The RMB to USD exchange rate was 7.1030, appreciating by 1.20% year-on-year [8] - The RMB to Euro exchange rate depreciated by 9.34% compared to the end of last year [8]

Group 1: Market and Liquidity - Interest Rates - DRO01 closed at 1.36 with a -0.60 bp change, DR007 at 1.46 with a -2.38 bp change [4] - GC001 closed at 1.37 with a 28.50 bp change, GC007 at 1.46 with a 4.50 bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.55 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change [4] - 1 - year treasury closed at 1.40 with a 0.07 bp change, 5 - year at 1.61 with a -1.32 bp change [4] - 10 - year treasury closed at 1.86 with a -1.01 bp change, 10 - year US treasury at 4.06 with a 5.00 bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 1.2645 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 1.0684 trillion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan [4] - This week, 1.2645 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits will mature on Monday [5] Group 2: Market and Liquidity - Stock Indexes - CSI 300 closed at 4522 with a -0.57% change, IF current month at 4523 with a -0.9% change [6] - SSE 50 closed at 2969 with a -0.49% change, IH current month at 2969 with a -0.7% change [6] - CSI 500 closed at 7148 with a 0.35% change, IC current month at 7140 with a 0.2% change [6] - CSI 1000 closed at 7423 with a 0.31% change, IM current month at 7393 with a 0.1% change [6] - Last week, CSI 300 rose 1.38% to 4522, SSE 50 rose 0.89% to 2968.5, CSI 500 rose 3.38% to 7147.7, and CSI 1000 rose 2.45% to 7422.9 [6] - Last week, in the Shenwan primary industry index, electronics (6.1%), real estate (6%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (4.8%), media (4.3%), and non - ferrous metals (3.8%) led the gains, while only comprehensive (-1.4%), banking (-0.7%), pharmaceutical biology (-0.4%), and social services (-0.3%) declined [6] - Last week's A - share daily trading volumes were 2.2215 trillion yuan, 1.9424 trillion yuan, 1.8096 trillion yuan, 2.1904 trillion yuan, and 2.2681 trillion yuan, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 247.39 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] Group 3: Market and Liquidity - Futures Volume and Open Interest - IF trading volume was 148,623 with a -12.4% change, and open interest was 278,489 with a -1.3% change [6] - IH trading volume was 65,282 with a -8.0% change, and open interest was 100,041 with a -4.2% change [6] - IC trading volume was 175,859 with a -10.2% change, and open interest was 267,758 with a 0.5% change [6] - IM trading volume was 240,836 with a -24.3% change, and open interest was 372,165 with a -4.2% change [6] Group 4: Market and Liquidity - Futures Basis - IF basis for current month was -1.94%, next month was 1.22%, current quarter was 2.10%, and next quarter was 1.90% [8] - IH basis for current month was -0.15%, next month was -0.17%, current quarter was -0.11%, and next quarter was -0.23% [8] - IC basis for current month was 7.91%, next month was 9.06%, current quarter was 8.45%, and next quarter was 8.40% [8] - IM basis for current month was 29.59%, next month was 14.44%, current quarter was 12.77%, and next quarter was 11.82% [8] Group 5: Economic Data and Market Outlook - In August, the new social financing was 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 463 billion yuan, and the stock growth rate of social financing dropped to 8.8% [7] - Government bond net financing decreased by 251.9 billion yuan year - on - year, and corporate short - term loans increased by 260 billion yuan year - on - year [7] - Resident short - term loans only increased by 1.05 billion yuan, and M1 year - on - year growth rate rose slightly to 6% [7] - In the coming week, there will be many domestic and international macro events. The Fed will announce its September interest rate decision, and China - US leaders will have talks [7] - Last week, the stock index rose further, with CSI 500 leading the rise in index futures. Market trading volume decreased last week [7] - The strategy is to control risks in index futures positions and mainly adjust for long positions next week [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance of the industry index to exceed the CSI 300 index by more than 5% within the next six months [37]. Core Insights - The report highlights the release of August social financing data by the central bank, showing a decrease in new RMB loans and a year-on-year growth rate of 6.8%. The total social financing increment for August was 2.57 trillion RMB, which is 463 billion RMB less than the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.8% [4][13]. - The National Financial Regulatory Administration revised the "Trust Company Management Measures," focusing on three main business areas: trust business, inherent asset liability business, and other services, aiming to enhance risk management and compliance [5][15]. - The revised "Consumer Rights Protection Regulatory Evaluation Measures" aims to strengthen consumer rights protection in financial institutions, improve service quality, and promote healthy industry development [6][19]. Summary by Sections Social Financing Data - In August 2025, new RMB loans increased by 590 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 310 billion RMB, with a total social financing increment of 2.57 trillion RMB, down 463 billion RMB from the previous year [4][13]. - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy increased by 623.3 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decrease of 417.8 billion RMB [4][14]. Trust Company Management Measures - The revised measures focus on three main areas: trust business, inherent asset liability business, and other services, with an emphasis on risk management and compliance [5][15]. - The revision aims to align with new regulations and enhance the quality of trust services [5][15]. Consumer Rights Protection Measures - The revised measures include a comprehensive evaluation system for financial institutions, emphasizing consumer rights protection and service transparency [6][19]. - The evaluation will cover various aspects, including marketing behavior, dispute resolution, and consumer education [20]. Industry Data - The banking sector saw a net injection of 196.1 billion RMB in open market operations, with SHIBOR rates rising [27]. - The securities sector reported an average daily trading volume of 3.04 trillion RMB, with a decrease of 4.5% from the previous week [30]. - The insurance sector noted a rise in the yield of ten-year government bonds by 4.10 basis points [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the commodity index fluctuated and declined slightly. Industrial and agricultural products both weakened. The weak fundamentals dragged down the overall commodity trend in the first half - week, while the market risk appetite improved in the second half - week, driving the commodities to rebound. The demand in the peak season was not strong, and the commodities were likely to fluctuate weakly. There were both bullish and bearish factors at the macro - level, and the demand had not improved significantly at the fundamental level [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Review**: The commodity index fluctuated and declined slightly this week. Industrial and agricultural products weakened. The weak fundamentals in the first half - week and the improved risk appetite in the second half - week due to Fed rate - cut expectations and A - share rebound affected the commodity trend [3]. - **Overseas**: - In August, US inflation met market expectations. The CPI increased year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to rising prices of food, energy, and housing. A 25BP rate cut in September was the benchmark scenario, and the inflation upside risk was controllable. The weak employment market might be the Fed's focus [3]. - In the first week of September, the seasonally - adjusted initial jobless claims in the US reached 263,000, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week, indicating a cooling labor market [3]. - The ECB maintained key interest rates unchanged on September 11, 2025. The policy signal was "hawkish". The market's expectation of another ECB rate cut this year dropped to about 15%. In the short - term, the ECB was likely to stay put, while in the long - term, its policy stance was uncertain [3]. - **Domestic**: - In August, the new social financing scale was 2.57 trillion yuan, less than the same period last year but slightly higher than expected. New loans were 590 billion yuan, less than last year and in line with expectations. The real - economy financing demand was weak, and government net financing might become a drag. The rebound of resident and enterprise credit demand was crucial [3]. - In August, China's imports and exports in US dollars were lower than expected. Export momentum might weaken marginally, but there were still supporting factors such as global economic recovery and strong exports to Africa [3]. - **Commodity View**: With the peak demand season not living up to expectations, commodities were likely to fluctuate weakly. There were both bullish and bearish factors at the macro - level, and the demand had not improved at the fundamental level [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Inflation and Employment**: In August, US CPI increased year - on - year to 2.9%. The seasonally - adjusted initial jobless claims in the first week of September increased significantly, and the labor market was cooling [3][7][10]. - **ECB Policy**: The ECB maintained key interest rates unchanged on September 11, 2025. The policy signal was "hawkish", and the market's expectation of another rate cut this year dropped to about 15%. The future policy stance was uncertain depending on inflation and economic recovery [3][13]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **Financial Data**: In August, new social financing and loans were lower than the same period last year. The real - economy financing demand was weak, and government net financing might affect future performance. The rebound of credit demand was key [3][17]. - **Foreign Trade Data**: In August, China's imports and exports in US dollars were lower than expected. Export momentum might weaken, but there were supporting factors [3][20]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: On September 5, the PTA operating rate was 78.28%, and the POY operating rate was 87.36%. In August and September, the operating rates of some industries showed certain changes [27][34]. - **Automobile Data**: In August and September, the sales of automobiles showed growth. For example, in August, the sales were 201.9 (units not specified), a 5.9% increase [34]. - **Agricultural Product Data**: On September 12, the price changes of some agricultural products were 0.75% and 0.14%, etc. [35].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 280 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on September 15, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 885 billion yuan after accounting for 191.5 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - Last week, the central bank's net reverse repo injection was 196.1 billion yuan, and it announced a 600 billion yuan 6-month buyout reverse repo operation on September 15, with a total net injection of 300 billion yuan for the month, consistent with the previous month [2][3] - The funding environment showed a tightening trend at the beginning of the week due to government debt payments and previous net withdrawals, with overnight rates rising above the central rate, but eased later in the week as the central bank shifted to net injections [1][2] Group 2 - The upcoming week (September 15-19) will see an increase in reverse repo maturities to 1,264.5 billion yuan, with a significant government debt net payment of 402.5 billion yuan, including a single-day net payment of 366 billion yuan on September 15 [2] - Analysts expect that the tax period will be a major influencing factor on the funding environment, but given the central bank's supportive stance, significant fluctuations in funding prices are unlikely, with DR001 expected to remain below 1.4% [2][3] - Financial data from the PBOC indicated that the total social financing stock at the end of August was 433.66 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, and new loans primarily driven by corporate borrowing [3][4]