养老，一头牵着千家万户的日常幸福，另一头连着积极应对人口老龄化国家战略。随着人口老龄化程度 的持续加深，养老金融已成为社会保障体系的重要支柱，也是连接金融发展与民生福祉、促进共同富裕 的重要纽带。 截至2024年底，根据国家统计局所公布的数据，我国60岁以上人口占比和65岁以上人口占比分别为 22.0%和15.6%。相较于5年前的2019年底，上述两组数据分别提升了3.9和3.0个百分点。而根据联合国 在2024年底所更新的预测，在基准条件下，我国65岁以上人口占比将在2032年底超过20.0%，在2049年 底突破30.0%的关口。 为了应对渐行渐近的老龄化挑战、做好"养老金融"大文章，2024年下半年至2025年上半年，金融监管部 门集中出台了多项养老金融政策，从养老金融的顶层设计和统计制度入手，在养老金金融、养老产业金 融和养老服务金融等多个领域明确了未来我国养老金融的发展方向。 展望未来，《白皮书》指出，随着中央金融监管部门陆续出台养老金融政策、相关框架与范畴逐步厘 清，以及中青年居民养老意识的增强，我国养老金融发展或将呈现"六化"趋势：居民养老资金管理体系 化、养老财富储备产品丰富化、养老金融服务供 ...

Core Insights - The aging population in China is becoming a significant challenge, with projections indicating that by the end of 2024, 22.0% of the population will be over 60 years old, and 15.6% will be over 65 years old, marking an increase from 2019 [1] - The government is actively implementing policies to enhance the pension finance system, aiming to create a robust framework for pension financial services and products [2][3] Policy Developments - In December 2024, a joint guideline was issued by the People's Bank of China and nine other departments to support the development of the silver economy through targeted financial products for different age groups [2] - The National Financial Supervision Administration released an implementation plan in March 2025 to establish a diverse commercial pension finance system [2] Research Findings - A recent white paper by Industrial Bank highlights that nearly 80% of respondents are willing to allocate up to 30% of their monthly income for retirement savings, with a preference for bank deposits and wealth management products [3][8] - The white paper also indicates a significant urban-rural divide in pension account participation, with urban residents showing higher account opening and contribution rates compared to rural residents [6] Future Trends - The white paper predicts a "six-fold" trend in pension finance development, including systematic management of pension funds, diversification of pension products, personalized financial services, age-appropriate online and offline services, diversified financing methods for the pension industry, and the integration of smart technologies in the silver economy [19][20][21] Consumer Behavior - The ideal monthly retirement expenditure for respondents is between 3,000 to 5,000 yuan, with higher expectations in first-tier cities [12] - The demand for diverse pension financial products is characterized by a preference for safety, rational return expectations, and sensitivity to liquidity [8][12] International Insights - The white paper draws on international experiences, particularly from Japan, suggesting that China can enhance participation in personal pension systems through optimized tax policies and targeted subsidies for low-income groups [14][16] - The analysis indicates that as life expectancy increases, the demand for institutional care in China is likely to rise, similar to trends observed in Japan [16][17]

过去，围绕我国社会养老保障体系"三大支柱"，商业银行构建了各具特色的财富管理体系，但在很长一段时间里对老年群体的服务始终停留在 浅层，本质上依然是聚焦于养老金账户管理与资产配置的传统金融服务。 如今，随着我国明确提出"实施积极应对人口老龄化国家战略"，并将养老金融纳入金融"五篇大文章"后，多数银行都逐渐意识到，养老服务不 再是单纯的资金管理，而是一个贯穿客户全生命周期，涉及财富管理、支付结算、医疗健康，甚至精神文化等多维度的长期"场景"。 21世纪经济报道记者 家俊辉 广州报道 在人口老龄化浪潮席卷全球的今天，我国将面临规模大、进程快、程度高、持续久的银发社会新常态。与此同时，一个巨大的"银发经济"市场 正加速形成。 2022年起，养老金融政策密集出台，特别是中央金融工作会议将"养老金融"列入金融"五篇大文章"后，养老金融成为商业银行服务国家战略、 践行金融为民的新蓝海，亦成为其推动业务转型、发掘增长动能的新领域。 究其原因，传统的"银发金融"服务已无法满足追求高品质养老的老年人，更无法满足养老意识提升的年轻人。对此，有业内人士向21世纪经济 报道记者分析称，传统金融服务主要聚焦于资金账户的管理，但当前居民养 ...

截至2025年三季度末，第一支柱方面，中国人寿集团旗下养老险公司为超750亿元基本养老保险基金提 供投资管理服务，特定投资组合规模和业绩排名前列，实现基金保值增值；第二支柱方面，中国人寿养 老险公司企业年金和职业年金管理累计规模超2.1万亿元，管理资产总规模稳居行业首位；第三支柱是 养老金融发展的突破口，中国人寿集团成员单位广发银行个人养老金资金账户开户量超340万，个人养 老金产品数量超220只。截至2025年三季度末，广发银行新发放养老产业贷款20.2亿元，养老产业贷款 余额达24.8亿元。 同时，"国寿嘉园"是中国人寿集团旗下国寿健投公司着力打造的专业养老运营品牌。目前，国寿嘉园养 老社区已推出养老综合体、城郊CCRC养老社区、城心精品养老公寓等多个产品线。 其中，国寿嘉园·苏州雅境是中国人寿推出的第一个高品质养老综合体，集"健康文化、养老康复、活力 养生、颐养天年"四大功能于一体，致力于为老人打造幸福颐养"嘉"园。 城郊CCRC养老社区目前已在北京、天津、成都、厦门等城市重点布局，依托所在城市区域特征打造各 自特色，能够覆盖自理、半自理、护理、失能失智人群的全龄养老需求。 12月29日，据中国人寿消息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver economy is positioned as a core sector of the service industry, aiming to meet the diverse needs of the elderly through market mechanisms during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, creating a closed loop of "improving people's livelihood - releasing consumption - economic growth" [2][8]. Group 1: Industry Overview - As of October 2025, there are over 17 million enterprises in the elderly care industry, employing more than 49 million people, with a conservative estimate of total employment exceeding 100 million [3]. - The elderly care industry has established 470,000 service facilities, creating a "quarter-hour elderly care service circle" that covers urban and rural areas [3]. - The elderly care technology and smart elderly care service sector comprises over 5.43 million enterprises, accounting for 30.66% of the overall elderly care industry, with smart elderly care services growing at a rate of 22% [3]. Group 2: Policy and Development Goals - The basic elderly care service supply is prioritized as the foundation for expanding the silver economy, focusing on inclusivity and security [4]. - The central government has set a goal to enhance basic elderly care services, particularly for disabled elderly individuals, by 2029 [5]. Group 3: Challenges and Shortcomings - There is a significant care gap for approximately 45 million disabled and cognitively impaired elderly individuals, with only 500,000 certified caregivers available, indicating a shortfall of 550,000 [6]. - The elderly population aged 60 and above in rural areas exceeds 23%, highlighting the need for targeted services for rural elderly and those in difficult circumstances [6]. Group 4: Strategic Focus Areas - The silver economy must focus on three rigid shortcomings: addressing special groups, enhancing service networks, and building professional capabilities [6][7]. - The demand for caregivers and rehabilitation therapists is increasing, with job postings in these areas growing by 36.1% and 25.7% year-on-year, respectively [7]. Group 5: Development Principles - The development of the silver economy should adhere to three principles: not deviating from "elderly-friendly needs," not deviating from "collaborative integration," and not deviating from "China's national conditions" [8][9]. - The health management elderly care service market is projected to reach between 1.4 trillion and 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025, becoming one of the fastest-growing sectors [8].

养老资金储备直接关系到晚年养老的幸福指数，事关居民养老"刚需"，如何充实养老钱袋子？一增一 减，是中国人寿的实践路径。 "增"即通过专业投资，丰盈养老资金储备。中国人寿充分发挥保险、投资、银行三大业务板块协同发展 的综合金融优势，立足于丰富的险资跨周期资金管理经验，全面布局养老三支柱业务。截至2025年三季 度末，第一支柱方面，中国人寿集团旗下养老险公司为超750亿元基本养老保险基金提供投资管理服 务，特定投资组合规模和业绩排名前列，实现基金保值增值；第二支柱方面，中国人寿养老险公司企业 年金和职业年金管理累计规模超2.1万亿元，管理资产总规模稳居行业首位；第三支柱是养老金融发展 的突破口，也是中国人寿落实养老金融的着力点，中国人寿集团成员单位广发银行个人养老金资金账户 开户量超340万，排名股份制银行前列，持续丰富产品货架，积极开发、引进符合不同投资偏好的养老 金融产品，个人养老金产品数量超220只；中国人寿养老险公司陆续发行10款商业养老金产品，商业养 老金累计规模和有效客户数持续保持"行业双第一"；中国人寿集团旗下资产公司立足主业，充分调动公 司本级及子公司多业务单元潜能，为中国人寿养老险公司商业养老金 ...

12月26日，由新京报社与中国老龄产业协会科技委联合主办，主题为"看2026银发经济新趋势研讨会"在 京举行，围绕"十五五"时期银发经济的发展趋势、服务供给与技术落地等议题展开研讨交流。 政策牵引的另一面，是产业体量被更直观地"量化"出来。王永春介绍，以国家统计分类口径划分，养老 产业分为12大类；到2025年10月，我国老龄化水平为18.72%，新注册企业173.8万户、注销129.9万户， 实有企业1775万户；按社保缴纳口径估算，从业人员为4981万。 与此同时，养老供给载体正在形成更清晰的网络。王永春介绍，截至2025年10月，全国服务机构总量约 47万，其中养老机构3.88万、社区服务中心32万、助餐点11万。这些载体共同构成从机构端到社区端、 再到助餐等便民节点的"多载体谱系"，让服务更贴近老年人生活半径，也为后续的专业照护、康复服务 与智慧养老应用提供接入点。 不仅如此，马旗戟表示，在增长路径上，我国银发经济的动力结构也正在发生变化：前一阶段更多依靠 政府完成全覆盖兜底、基础设施建设和制度投入，"十五五"期间，市场化供给的扩张和升级将成为核心 动能。公共服务体系要把底兜牢，社会力量则主要投向以社 ...

经济学家任泽平发文，提出未来十年中国经济的十大趋势。1. 2035年中国经济规模将超过美国，成为世 界第一大经济体，全球经济、贸易、科技、地缘秩序重新洗牌，未来十年将是大国博弈的关键期。2. 人 工智能的超级应用大爆发，成为经济的新增长点，引领新一轮康波周期，成为新一代年轻人人生逆袭和 财富逆袭的机会。3. 生命科学取得重大突破，在AI的助力下创新药研发势如破竹，人的寿命被大幅提 高到120岁，60岁被称为银发青年。4. 人形机器人在社会上到处都是，替代人类的简单重复劳动，人类 解放出来从事创造、社交、情感活动。5. 自动驾驶势不可挡，燃油车彻底被淘汰，自动驾驶将是城市交 通拥堵、空气污染和安全出行的终极解决方案。6. 新型绿色能源体系诞生，光伏、风电和可控核聚变彻 底替代煤电，能源供应体系转型为"分布式发电+储能"，地球温室效应极大改善。7. 后房地产时代到 来，市场二八分化，20%人口流入地区的房价有望触底甚至创新高，80%人口流出地区的房价漫长阴 跌。8. 人口老龄化、少子化、不婚化到来，银发经济、宠物经济、单身经济、情绪消费崛起，机器人和 AI助手越来越走进人类生活，成为每个人的伙伴、甚至恋人和伴侣。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Consumer Sector Outlook for 2026**: The consumer sector is expected to recover significantly, driven by a focus on domestic demand and policy support, particularly in service consumption and new product categories. The real estate sector's negative impact is diminishing, with core CPI showing six months of recovery [2][5][8]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Long Bull Market Prediction**: A long bull market similar to 2016-2019 is anticipated to begin in the second half of 2026, led by AI-driven new products, service consumption, overseas opportunities, and durable goods. The first half of 2026 will see strong performance in overseas markets, while domestic demand will gain attention in the latter half [1][5][6]. - **Policy Support for Consumer Spending**: The introduction of a resident income increase plan by the central economic work conference, along with the appreciation of the RMB and favorable trade policies, will provide a solid foundation for consumer spending in the coming years [1][9][10]. - **AI and 3D Printing Opportunities**: The AI and 3D printing sectors are poised for significant growth, with opportunities across the entire supply chain, including leading companies and innovative hardware products like AI glasses and smart mattresses [1][12]. Key Sectors and Companies to Watch - **Service Consumption**: Focus on service consumption growth in 2026, particularly in travel and tourism, as well as the elderly care sector, which is expected to see increased demand [3][15]. - **Alcohol and Snack Industries**: The liquor sector, particularly major brands like Moutai, is expected to maintain strong performance due to price stability measures. The snack sector is also showing promise, with companies like Wanchen and Yanjin expected to perform well during the pre-Spring Festival period [16][20][24]. - **Elderly Economy**: The silver economy is anticipated to grow, with companies like Sanxia Tourism and Aima Technology showing potential in the elderly travel and mobility sectors [15][11]. Investment Logic and Recommendations - **Consumer Sector Investment**: The consumer sector is seen as undervalued, with significant room for valuation recovery. The focus should be on companies benefiting from policy support and improving domestic demand [2][30]. - **Emerging Technologies**: Investment opportunities in AI and new technologies, particularly in 3D printing and AI-enhanced products, are highlighted as key growth areas [12][35]. - **Overseas Expansion**: Companies with strong overseas branding and supply chain capabilities are recommended for investment, especially in light of the RMB appreciation [13][31]. Additional Insights - **Real Estate Market Impact**: The negative impact of the real estate market on consumer spending is expected to be limited, as government measures to boost public spending and social security are likely to stabilize purchasing power [7][8]. - **Consumer Market Drivers**: Key drivers for the consumer market include urbanization, rising GDP per capita, and demographic shifts, particularly the aging population, which will influence consumption patterns [10][11]. - **Food and Beverage Sector**: The snack and beverage sectors are expected to benefit from new retail models and consumer trends, with specific companies recommended for their growth potential [20][24][27]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and recommendations from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated trends and investment opportunities in the consumer sector for 2026.

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the challenges and solutions for elderly care in rural areas of Shandong Province, particularly focusing on the initiatives taken in Huimin County to address the increasing number of disabled elderly individuals due to urbanization and labor migration [1][2]. Group 1: Elderly Care Initiatives - Huimin County has implemented a series of measures including home modifications for elderly individuals, integrating medical and nursing care, and providing home care services to address the needs of disabled elderly residents [1][2][4]. - Since 2022, the county has completed home modifications for 3,942 households, focusing on creating a safe living environment with features like smoke detectors and emergency buttons [2][4]. - The home care services are tailored to the needs of elderly individuals, with caregivers providing assistance with daily activities and even running errands for them [2][3]. Group 2: Medical and Nursing Integration - The integration of medical and nursing care is exemplified by the establishment of the Zhongkang Elderly Care Rehabilitation Center, which offers 24-hour medical services and a closed-loop system for health management [4][6]. - The center serves 110 elderly individuals, with 80% being from rural areas, and provides not only medical care but also social activities to enhance their quality of life [4][6]. - The county has also established a green channel for severe cases, allowing elderly individuals to receive immediate medical attention without the need for appointments [6][7]. Group 3: Challenges in Elderly Care - Despite the improvements, there are still cultural barriers preventing some elderly individuals from utilizing nursing homes, as many associate them with abandonment [6][7]. - Concerns about end-of-life arrangements and the stigma associated with moving to a nursing home continue to hinder the acceptance of institutional care among rural elderly [7][8]. - The county is exploring community-based solutions, such as involving retired professionals in providing care and creating a points system to incentivize support for elderly individuals [8].