12月23日，日本央行前审议委员Makoto Sakurai周一表示，在日本央行行长植田和男至2028年初的剩余 任期内，央行可能会进一步加息三次，将利率推升至1.5%。他同时警告称，政府激进的财政支出计划 可能因加剧通胀而产生反作用。 Makoto Sakurai预计，日本央行下一次加息可能发生在明年6月或7月， 届时利率将升至1.0%。具体的加息时点将取决于美国经济的强度，以及日本国内工资和物价的最新进 展。 他指出，虽然日本央行未公开表态，但其内部可能将中性利率水平估算在1.75%左右。将利率提高 至1.5%既能处于该水平下方，又能为未来的降息操作预留足够空间。不过，随着借贷成本接近这一对 经济既不刺激也不抑制的中性水平，进一步的加息举措将面临更大挑战。 另外，摩根大通表示，关税政策的不确定性以及交易所交易基金（ETF）和各国央行的强劲需求，在 2025年将黄金价格推升至每盎司4000美元以上的历史新高。而来自中国保险业巨头和加密货币领域的新 需求，可能帮助这种贵金属在2026年底前突破每盎司5055美元。"虽然此轮黄金涨势并非直线上升，未 来也不会是，但我们相信，推动黄金价格基准走高的趋势并未枯竭，" ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant price increases of Christmas gifts in the U.S. this year, leading consumers to reduce their gift lists or opt for homemade or second-hand items due to the "price tag shock" [2][6]. Price Increases - Popular holiday gifts have seen an average price increase of 26% compared to last year [6]. - Specific categories have experienced notable price hikes: home and kitchen gifts up 38%, electronics up 34%, clothing, shoes, and accessories up 20%, and toys and games up 17% [6]. Consumer Behavior - 40% of households are reducing the number of gifts purchased, and nearly one-third are cutting back on the number of recipients [6]. - Consumers are showing hesitation in purchasing due to high prices, with some negotiating prices at markets [2][4]. Retailer Challenges - Retailers are facing difficulties due to rising costs from tariffs, rent, and wages, leading to increased product prices [4]. - A store owner noted that maintaining previous prices would make it impossible to stay in business [4]. Tariff Impact - The article attributes the price increases to the unpredictable tariff policies of the Trump administration, which have resulted in over $200 billion in tariffs collected since January 20 [6]. - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported that tariffs and fees collected in October amounted to $34.3 billion [6]. Future Expectations - Analysts predict that U.S. importers may eventually pass on tariff costs to consumers, potentially leading to another round of price increases by spring 2026 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant price increases of Christmas gifts in the U.S. this year, leading consumers to reduce their gift lists or opt for homemade or second-hand items due to the "price tag shock" [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Increases - Many popular holiday gifts have seen an average price increase of 26% compared to last year, with specific categories experiencing even higher increases: home and kitchen gifts up 38%, electronics up 34%, clothing, shoes, and accessories up 20%, and toys and games up 17% [3]. - The price of items at local stores has risen sharply, with few products priced below $10, and specific items like a reindeer-patterned hat priced at nearly $30 and a 45 cm artificial Christmas tree close to $20 [2][3]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - 40% of households are reducing the number of gifts they purchase, and nearly one-third are cutting back on the number of recipients [3]. - Consumers are showing hesitation in their purchasing decisions, often comparing prices and negotiating with sellers before making a purchase [1]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The price increases are attributed to rising tariffs, rent, and wages, with store owners indicating that maintaining previous prices is not feasible for business [2]. - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported that over $200 billion in tariffs have been collected since the Trump administration took office, contributing to the increased costs of imported goods [3].

他在接受最新采访时表示，"如果我们降低贸易逆差，我们就会从美国公司购买商品，这样我们大家都 会受益——这种想法很诱人，但这只是一个不完整的观点。与预算赤字不同，贸易赤字毫无意义。" "这与可负担性无关，也与增长无关，所以这完全是在转移注意力。"他补充说。 12月23日，为了让美国选民们相信，在中期选举之前，美国经济正在好转，特朗普近日在全国讲话中， 将贸易逆差减少和关税收入增加吹捧为他上任以来的主要经济成就。 但经济学家似乎不认可这一说法。自由市场智库太平洋公共政策研究所（Pacific Research Institute）的 商业和经济高级研究员Wayne Winegarden警告称，较小的贸易逆差和创纪录的关税收入往好了说可能是 整体经济健康状况的糟糕指标，往坏了说可能是经济出现问题的迹象。 美国劳工部上周二报告称，10月份全美裁员10.5万个，11月份新增岗位6.4万个，而失业率在过去一个月 升至4.6%的四年高位。此外，在国内制造业方面，劳工统计局报告称，截至2025年9月，该行业的员工 人数为1270.6万人，比特朗普上任时的2025年1月底的1275.5万人减少了4.9万人。 Winegarde ...

Market Overview - The market is experiencing gains and a broad-based rally, with positive movements across various sectors including AI, banks, retailers, and industrials [1] - There is optimism about the market's trajectory into 2026, with indications of underlying economic strength despite challenges faced by businesses [2] Earnings and Predictions - The market has shown resilience, with a 17% gain for the S&P this year, marking the third consecutive year of double-digit percentage gains [5] - Historical data suggests that average bull markets last about five years, indicating that the current market is still in its early stages [6] Economic Factors - Recent legislative measures and clarity around tariff policies are expected to positively impact the economy, alongside consumer support from back tax refunds and deregulation efforts [7] - The market's performance last year amidst uncertainties suggests that current clarity and fundamental support for earnings may sustain stock prices [8] Market Dynamics - There is ongoing confusion regarding market leadership, with fluctuations between major tech stocks and broader market indices [9] - The Federal Reserve's stance and continued earnings growth are critical factors for market stability moving forward [9] Historical Context - The market has only seen stocks rise in double-digit percentages four times consecutively in the last century, highlighting the uniqueness of the current situation [10]

Coming to the economy. Investors are watching for signals from policymakers heading into a key year for the Federal Reserve, with a new chair expected to be announced soon. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack among those, preferring to hold rates higher for longer.Well, our next guest is taking the other side, voting for a 50 basis point cut at the Fed's last meeting. Joining us now is Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Myron. Very good morning to you, Stephen.Thank you so much for joining us. Good morning. ...

Core Insights - The report from the Cologne Institute for Economic Research indicates that U.S. tariff policies are causing a significant decline in German exports to the U.S. before the third quarter of 2025, putting immense pressure on transatlantic trade [1][2] Group 1: Export Decline - German exports to the U.S. are projected to decrease by an average of 7.8% in the first three quarters of 2025, contrasting with an average growth of nearly 5% from 2016 to 2024 during the same period [1] - The automotive, machinery, and chemical sectors, which account for over 40% of Germany's total exports to the U.S., are particularly hard hit, contributing to a decline of more than 5.2 percentage points in overall exports [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Impacts - The automotive sector experienced a significant drop of 14% in exports to the U.S., largely attributed to relatively high tariff burdens prior to the expected tariff agreement in August 2025 [1] - Machinery exports to the U.S. fell by 9.5%, influenced by a tariff rate as high as 50% on steel, aluminum, and related products [1] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The report suggests that the current export levels have reverted to those seen in 2022 and even early 2019, indicating a potential "new normal" for German exports to the U.S. due to the unlikely restoration of previous tariff levels in the short term [2]

Core Insights - 2025 is anticipated to be a strong year for IPOs and M&A transactions, with optimism from Wall Street that this growth momentum will continue into the new year [1][3]. M&A Market Performance - The total announced M&A transaction value in 2025 reached $4.8 trillion, marking the highest since 2021 and the second-highest in the past decade [8]. - There were 166 M&A deals exceeding $5 billion, the highest number since 2021, although the total number of deals was the lowest in at least ten years [8]. - The technology sector dominated the M&A market with a transaction value of $1 trillion, accounting for over 20% of the global total, significantly outpacing the healthcare sector [8]. - The resurgence of leveraged buyouts is a key indicator of the M&A market's recovery, with private equity transaction volume reaching $1 trillion, the highest since 2021 [8][11]. - The overall market environment is favorable for continued M&A activity, driven by a need for scale and a more lenient regulatory stance from the Trump administration compared to the Biden administration [12]. IPO Market Performance - In 2025, 1,372 companies successfully went public, raising a total of $170.6 billion, the best performance since 2022, but still significantly lower than the $606.4 billion raised in 2021 [13][16]. - The technology sector was the leading force in the IPO market, representing 29% of the global IPO market, with notable listings from companies like CoreWeave and Figma [16]. - The largest IPO of 2025 was from Medline, a medical supplies provider, raising nearly $6.3 billion, indicating a broader acceptance of various business models in the market [16]. Market Outlook for 2026 - There is a general optimism among investment bankers regarding the market performance in the first half of 2026, with expectations that it will likely continue the strong activity seen in the latter half of 2025 [17][18]. - Communication with clients and the number of ongoing projects for 2026 are at high levels, suggesting a robust pipeline for future transactions [18].

Core Viewpoint - The trade tensions between the U.S. and China have escalated, leading to significant impacts on both economies, with the U.S. facing rising import costs and potential GDP decline, while China diversifies its export markets and maintains overall trade growth despite reduced exports to the U.S. [1][3][25] Group 1: U.S. Economic Impact - The introduction of high tariffs by the U.S. has resulted in a significant drop in Chinese exports to the U.S., with a year-on-year decrease of 18.9% by November 2025, totaling $385.9 billion, which is 28% lower than the peak in 2022 [1] - U.S. import costs have surged, leading to increased consumer prices and potential closures of small and medium-sized enterprises, with economists predicting a GDP decline of around 4% [3] - The U.S. trade deficit has worsened, reaching $890 billion in August, a 17% increase from the previous year, indicating self-inflicted economic challenges [7] Group 2: China's Trade Resilience - Despite a significant drop in exports to the U.S., China's overall exports grew by 5.4% year-on-year, exceeding $3 trillion, due to market diversification [9][11] - Exports to ASEAN countries increased by 12%, and to Latin America by 13%, with Brazil seeing a 22% rise, showcasing China's ability to offset U.S. tariffs through new markets [11] - High-tech exports, including chips and machinery, have seen substantial growth, with chip exports increasing by 17.4% and overall machinery and electronics exports rising by 8.7% [13] Group 3: Future Outlook - Economists predict a 5% growth in Chinese exports by 2025, supported by strong demand in emerging markets and a resilient manufacturing sector [15][25] - The U.S. is expected to face ongoing economic pressure, with predictions of a GDP growth of only 0.5% compared to China's 4% [17] - The trade war is likely to continue, but China's diversified trade strategy and strong economic fundamentals position it favorably for future growth [19][25]

Core Insights - The Thai Baht is experiencing its largest annual appreciation against the US dollar in eight years, with a 10% increase in 2025, outperforming other Southeast Asian currencies [1][2] - The strong performance of the Baht is attributed to rising gold prices and unexpected benefits from US tariff policies, despite Thailand's economic challenges [1][2] - The appreciation of the Baht poses challenges for Thailand's export-driven economy and the new Prime Minister, who faces an election in February [1][5] Group 1: Factors Contributing to Baht Strength - The Baht's strength began in mid-2024, coinciding with government economic stimulus plans and traders selling dollars ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2] - A significant portion of the Baht's appreciation is linked to a 60% increase in gold prices, driven by a weakening US labor market and seasonal peaks in Thailand's tourism [3] - The US tariffs have inadvertently boosted Thailand's economy by encouraging manufacturers to shift production to Thailand, benefiting from lower tariffs compared to Chinese goods [2][3] Group 2: Economic Implications of a Strong Baht - A strong Baht makes Thai products more expensive in international markets, leading to slower export growth [4] - The tourism sector is under pressure as the strong Baht diminishes Thailand's appeal as a low-cost destination, with a downward revision of foreign tourist arrivals expected [4] - While a stronger Baht reduces import costs for households, the overall impact on an economy reliant on exports and tourism is negative [4] Group 3: Government and Central Bank Responses - The Thai government is addressing concerns from export-oriented businesses regarding the Baht's appreciation, amidst political instability and upcoming elections [5] - The central bank has intervened in the foreign exchange market to manage excessive volatility and has proposed measures to increase flexibility for businesses managing offshore earnings [6] - Discussions are ongoing regarding potential taxation on physical gold transactions to mitigate the impact of gold prices on the Baht's strength [6]