Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term cotton prices may face pressure near the gap. Although the macro - environment is expected to improve, the fundamentals are weak and macro uncertainties remain, so the short - term outlook for cotton prices is not optimistic [3][37] - The cotton spinning market continues to fluctuate, with the off - season gradually emerging. Demand has insufficient pulling power on cotton prices [3][10] Summary by Directory Part I: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets 1. Weekly Data Overview - From April 17 to April 25, the CRB commodity price index rose from 296.38 to 298.46, a cumulative increase of 2.08 points, or 0.70%. The Wenhua Commodity Index increased from April 18 to April 25, with an increase of 1.47, or 0.93%. The ICE cotton futures main 07 contract rose from 67.11 to 68.70 cents/pound, an increase of 1.59 cents/pound, or 2.37%. The Zhengzhou cotton main 09 contract rose from 12885 to 12990 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 50,000 lots to 572,000 lots [2][6][8] - The prices of various commodities showed different trends. Gold and crude oil prices declined, while the prices of some agricultural products such as US soybeans rose [8] 2. Cotton Import Quotations in Various Countries - From April 18 to April 25, the CNF quotations of imported cotton in various countries increased, and the corresponding after - tax prices also increased [9] Part II: Basic Situation of the Domestic Market 1. Trend of Textile Mainstream Raw Materials - On April 25, compared with April 18, the price centers of raw materials such as polyester staple fiber, viscose, and CCI3128 showed mixed trends [14] 2. Trend of Cotton Yarn Prices - On April 25, except for R30S, the price centers of domestic yarns decreased compared with April 18. The price centers of foreign yarns in RMB terms also decreased, while the overall price center of foreign yarns remained unchanged [17][21][22] 3. Comparison of Domestic Cotton Futures and Spot Prices with International Cotton Price Index (Tax - Included) - On April 25, the spot price index and the difference between the price of foreign cotton under the sliding - scale duty increased. The difference between Zhengzhou cotton and the price of foreign cotton under the sliding - scale duty also increased. The difference between domestic and foreign yarns and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton also increased [24][25][28] Part III: Analysis of the Zhengzhou Cotton Market 1. Situation of Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - As of April 25, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 10,555 lots (454,000 tons), the valid forecasts were 1,938 lots (83,000 tons), and the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 537,000 tons, a decrease from April 18 [31] 2. Analysis of the Difference between Zhengzhou Cotton Futures and Spot Prices - On April 25, the difference between the Zhengzhou cotton futures price and the CCI3128B index was - 1234 yuan/ton, a decrease from April 18, indicating that the difference between futures and spot prices had narrowed [33] 3. Analysis of Zhengzhou Cotton Prices - Macroscopically, Trump's remarks and the Fed's possible interest - rate cut expectations have boosted market confidence. Domestically, positive policies such as the issuance of special treasury bonds and the continuation of MLF have been implemented [34] - In terms of supply, the total commercial cotton inventory continues to decline, and domestic new cotton sowing is in the later stage, expected to end by the end of April. In terms of demand, the off - season of the downstream market has emerged, demand has insufficient pulling power on cotton prices, and the industry's mentality is cautious [3][35][37] - Technically, the MACD red column of the Zhengzhou cotton main 09 contract is expanding, DIFF and DEA are about to form a golden cross, and the KDJ indicator is also about to form a golden cross, but the technical indicators are weak [39] Part IV: Analysis of the International Market 1. Export Dynamics of US Cotton - From April 11 - 17, the net signing volume of US 2024/25 annual upland cotton decreased compared with the previous week, and the shipment volume also decreased. The net signing and shipment volumes of Pima cotton increased. As of April 17, 2025, the cumulative net signing volume of US 2024/25 annual cotton exports reached 107.55% of the annual expected export volume, and the shipment rate was 68.31% [43] - As of April 15, the net long position of funds in CFTC increased by 5,622 lots compared with the previous week [44] 2. Analysis of ICE Cotton Futures - On April 25, the ICE cotton futures main 07 contract rose by 2.37% compared with April 17. Technically, the MACD red column is expanding, DIFF and DEA are about to form a golden cross, and the KDJ indicator is also about to form a golden cross, but the technical indicators are weak [45] Part V: Operation Suggestions - It is advisable for upstream cotton processing enterprises to conduct batch point - pricing of their existing lint inventories when the price rebounds - Downstream textile enterprises should purchase raw materials in batches according to order situations and can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of lint procurement [47]

钢材周报 2025 年 4 月 28 日 政策积极有为 期价震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 ⚫ 宏观面：中共中央政治局召开会议，会议强调，要加 紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极 的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。加力实施城市更 新行动，有力有序推进城中村和危旧房改造。加快构 建房地产发展新模式，加大高品质住房供给，优化存 量商品房收购政策，持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势。 持续稳定和活跃资本市场。 ⚫ 基本面： ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 2025 年 4 月 28 日 铜铝周报 专业研究·创造价值 节前有色震荡运行 核心观点 铜：期价冲高后震荡，节前预计维持震荡运行 上周铜价冲高后整体在 7.8 万下方震荡整理。期价的上涨主要受 益于海外宏观回暖，即美国关税政策放松预期，以及产业支撑。产业 层面，上游加工费持续下跌，低利润下炼厂减产预期上升；4 月中旬 下游生产积极性较高，补库意愿上升，基差和月差持续走强，对应电 解铜社会库存下降明显。五一节前下游存在备货需求，这一定程度上 也助推了铜价。海外宏观扰动边际下降，国内产业支撑不断增强。短 期铜价已修复至 2 月的水 ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策面利好预期与外部不确定性 风险并存 | 备注： ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 4 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周五今日各股指均冲高回落，全天震荡整理。股市成交金额为 11370 亿元，较上日缩量 19 亿元。近期股市的成交量能保持相对稳定，一方 ...

宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 4 月 28 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 短期内降息预期减弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 观点参考 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周五国债期货均震荡整理，多数收涨，其中 30 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing a rally, driven by macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and addressing external shocks, with a focus on employment, enterprises, and market expectations [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The China Securities Red Chip Low Volatility 100 Index (930955) increased by 0.34%, with notable gains from stocks such as Yangyuan Beverage (603156) up 7.25% and Baosteel (600019) up 6.02% [3]. - The Red Chip Low Volatility 100 ETF (159307) rose by 0.19%, marking its third consecutive increase, with the latest price at 1.03 yuan [3]. Group 2: Economic Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau meeting on April 25 emphasized the need to solidify the foundation for economic recovery, highlighting the importance of proactive macroeconomic policies to counter external uncertainties [3]. - The meeting called for timely implementation of established policies and the introduction of additional measures based on changing circumstances, focusing on stabilizing growth [3][4]. Group 3: Banking Sector Outlook - Eastern Securities noted that the current period is characterized by intensive policy implementation aimed at stabilizing growth, with monetary easing leading the way, followed by fiscal measures [4]. - The banking sector is expected to benefit from increased fiscal policy support, which will bolster social financing and credit, enhancing economic expectations [4]. - The net interest margin for banks may face short-term pressure due to broad interest rate declines, but regulatory measures against high-interest deposit solicitation will provide support [4]. Group 4: ETF Performance Metrics - The Red Chip Low Volatility 100 ETF saw a significant increase in scale, with a growth of 16.59 million yuan over the past week, ranking second among comparable funds [4]. - The ETF's one-year net value increased by 8.14%, leading among comparable funds, with a maximum drawdown of 6.18% year-to-date, the smallest among peers [5][6]. - The ETF has a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, the lowest among comparable funds, with a tracking error of 0.017%, indicating high tracking precision [6]. Group 5: Index Composition - As of March 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Red Chip Low Volatility 100 Index accounted for 19.3% of the index, with notable stocks including Jizhong Energy (000937) and Daqin Railway (601006) [6][8].

22002255年年44月月2211日日--22002255年年44月月2255日日基基金金投投顾顾观观点点 本周中美关税战有缓和迹象推动风险偏好回升，A股延续反弹，黄金冲高回落，债市平稳运 行，全球股市普遍上涨。具体来看，本周市场有以下几个重要方面： 01 本周市场延续反弹，上半周上涨，下半周在指数点位接近修复4月7日跳空缺口时，市场有所 犹豫、走势震荡。基本面方面，A股上市公司一季报披露进入高峰期，对市场整体未形成显 著影响。流动性方面，沪深两市日均成交额近1.12万亿元，相比上周有明显提升。成交金额 的放大代表了流动性的恢复，对流动性反应敏感的小盘表现好于大盘，本周表现从高到低依 次为国证2000、中证1000、中证500、沪深300。从行业表现看，汽车、美容护理、基础 护工表现较好。今日中共中央政治局会议提出了系列宏观政策，要加紧实施更加积极有为的 宏观政策、适时降准降息等。 02 AA股股延延续续反反弹弹，，黄黄金金冲冲高高回回落落 债市方面，本周资金面均衡偏松，债券市场整体震荡为主。本周市场影响因素包括消息面、 债券供给和资金面。消息面较多，小作文传政治局会议地产政策以及美国表态降低对华关税 等， ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for stronger macroeconomic policies to stabilize the economy amid increasing external shocks, highlighting the importance of proactive fiscal and monetary measures to support growth and employment [1][2][3]. Economic Performance - In Q1, China's economy grew by 5.4% year-on-year, surpassing the growth rates of the previous year and positioning it among the leading global economies [2]. - The meeting acknowledged the need to solidify the foundation for ongoing economic recovery due to heightened external pressures [2]. Policy Tools - The meeting called for the enhancement of the policy toolbox to include both flexibility and unconventional features, aiming to respond effectively to economic fluctuations [2]. - It was noted that the policies should be timely and responsive to changes in the economic landscape, with a focus on stabilizing employment and economic growth [2][3]. Monetary Policy - The meeting reiterated the commitment to maintaining liquidity and supporting the real economy through structural monetary policy tools, including potential interest rate cuts and the establishment of new financial instruments [4][5]. - Recent data indicated a significant increase in social financing, with March's increment reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, reflecting robust monetary support for economic recovery [4]. Fiscal Policy - The meeting emphasized accelerating the issuance and utilization of local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds, with a total issuance plan of 1.3 trillion yuan announced [6]. - The focus will be on expediting fiscal spending and optimizing expenditure structures to ensure the stability of basic public services [6][7]. Future Expectations - Analysts anticipate that fiscal policies may include measures such as increasing the issuance of government bonds and expanding consumer subsidies to stimulate new consumption growth areas [7]. - The meeting highlighted the urgency of addressing local government debts owed to enterprises, indicating a potential allocation of funds to resolve these issues [7].

近日，2025年超长期特别国债发行"开闸"，两期共计1210亿元债券顺利发行。与此同时，中央金融 机构注资特别国债也启动发行。中央政治局会议强调，"要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用 足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使 用"。宏观政策加速落地显效，推动我国经济稳中有进、持续向好，更有效应对外部变化的不确定性。 从2024年起连续几年发行超长期特别国债，是党中央作出的一项重大决策部署。2024年我国发行1 万亿元超长期特别国债，其中，7000亿元用于支持国家重大战略和重点领域安全能力建设；3000亿元用 于支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，特别是加大汽车报废更新、家电产品以旧换新补贴力度，拉 动消费效应明显。1万亿元超长期特别国债的发行使用，有力支持了"两重"建设、"两新"工作。 今年我国财政政策进一步加力，明确要"更加积极"，超长期特别国债也更加给力。一方面，资金规 模更大。按照预算安排，今年我国拟发行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元，比上年增加3000亿元，其中， 8000亿元用于更大力度支持"两重"项目，5000亿元用于加力扩围实施"两新"政策。另一方 ...

从理财市场一季报来看，2 0 2 5Q1末理财规模较年初下降0 . 8 1万亿元，同比多减0 . 6 4万亿元。资产配置方面，一季度理财产品增 配同业资产，减配存款和同业存单。展望来看，随着二季度债市修复和银行负债压力减弱，理财规模有望重回景气扩张。从银 行板块投资看，在宏观"审慎"和"走弱"的两种假设情形下，银行板块相对于大部分行业而言，基本面具备相对稳健特征，相对 价值显著。 ▍ 事项： 本周银行业理财登记托管中心发布《中国银行业理财市场季度报告（2 0 2 5年一季度）》；中共中央政治局4月2 5日召开会议， 分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。 ▍ 市场规模：2 0 2 5Q1末理财规模较年初下降0 . 8 1万亿元。 1）2 0 2 5Q1年末理财存续规模2 9 . 1 4万亿元，同比增长9 . 4 1%，较年初下降0 . 8 1万亿元，同比多减0 . 6 4万亿元。 2 0 2 5年一季 度，理财市场整体景气度处于低位，当季债市波动较大影响理财收益率，根据我们的样本测算，2 0 2 5Q1纯债型和非纯债型固 收类理财产品平均年化收益率分别为1 . 5 6%/ 1 . 3 7%（2 0 2 4Q1分别为 ...