Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished products are showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The economic data in August slowed down and were lower than expected, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales are still weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. The export volume decreased slightly last week and remains in a weak and volatile pattern. The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively firm, and the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils have diverged. Steel mills' profits are gradually narrowing, and the weak characteristics of the market are becoming more prominent. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices still have the risk of decline. The raw material prices are relatively firm, and continuous attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by domestic and overseas macro - policies [3]. - The short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate. The overseas iron ore shipments have rebounded to the same - period high, the proximal arrival volume has decreased slightly, and the short - term demand support still exists. The steel mill profitability rate continues to decline, and the port and steel mill inventories have both increased slightly. The terminal data shows that the apparent demand for the five major steel products has increased to some extent, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The rebar data is weak, and the difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar has been strong recently. Attention should be paid to whether the internal contradictions of finished products will be transmitted to the raw material end [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the prices of their main contracts fluctuated higher on September 17. From a disk perspective, they are in a range - bound pattern. The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, mainly due to high - level supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. Ferrosilicon has no obvious contradictions and drivers in its supply - demand fundamentals. Both are likely to follow the trend of the black - sector market, and their operational cost - effectiveness is relatively low [8][9][11]. - The price of industrial silicon fluctuated and strengthened. The fundamentals of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand have not changed fundamentally. The short - term valuation is neutral. If the market continues to discuss topics such as "anti - involution", the price may rise further under the expected drive; otherwise, the weak fundamentals will limit the price increase. The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policy narratives. Before the actual progress of capacity integration, the disk price is prone to fluctuate with the ebb and flow of sentiment [13][14][16]. - For glass, the industry supply has increased slightly, and the enterprise inventory has decreased. The pre - holiday stocking has promoted inventory reduction, but the market supply is still abundant, and the terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish. For soda ash, the industry supply has contracted slightly, mainly due to the maintenance of production lines. Some downstream enterprises have pre - holiday stocking needs, but most are still purchasing based on rigid demand. The market trading atmosphere is tepid, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [18][19]. - Although the black - sector prices still have the risk of short - term phased decline under the influence of real - demand, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary easing, and the opening of China's policy space after the US enters the interest - rate cut cycle, the black - sector may gradually have the cost - effectiveness of long - allocation in the future, and the key node may focus on the "Fourth Plenary Session" around mid - October [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3168 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.063%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 6300 tons, and the position increased by 7123 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3390 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.35%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the position increased by 523 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 804.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.12% (+ 1.00), and the position increased by 2092 lots to 53.45 million lots. The weighted position was 84.05 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 43.25 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.10% [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: On September 17, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) rose 0.77% to close at 5990 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, with a basis of 20 yuan/ton [8]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main ferrosilicon contract (SF511) rose 1.16% to close at 5766 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 yuan/ton [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) was 8965 yuan/ton, up 0.56% (+ 50). The weighted contract position decreased by 2096 lots to 510223 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis was 135 yuan/ton; the 421 price was 9600 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 165 yuan/ton [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract (PS2511) was 53490 yuan/ton, down 0.34% (- 180). The weighted contract position decreased by 4424 lots to 289544 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were 49.5 yuan/kg, 51.05 yuan/kg, and 52.55 yuan/kg respectively, with a basis of - 940 yuan/ton [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: On Wednesday at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1234 yuan/ton, down 0.24% (- 3). The prices in North China and Central China were 1150 yuan and 1130 yuan respectively. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 146.7 million cases (- 2.33%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 12356 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 26149 lots [18]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1334 yuan/ton, down 0.37% (- 5). The price in Shahe was 1239 yuan, down 5 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 2.46 million tons (- 2.33%), with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing by 3.74 million tons and the light - soda inventory increasing by 1.28 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders decreased their positions by 7884 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 13693 lots [19].

Group 1 - The offshore RMB against the USD broke the 7.1 mark for the first time since November 7, 2024, with a peak of 7.0965 on September 17, indicating a 0.34% increase since the beginning of September [1] - The onshore RMB is also approaching the 7.1 threshold, closing at 7.1056 on September 17, reflecting a 0.46% increase in September [1] - The appreciation of the RMB is attributed to market expectations of the Federal Reserve initiating a rate cut cycle, leading to a weaker USD and increased demand for RMB assets from foreign investors [1][2] Group 2 - Despite external pressures and weak domestic demand, China's economy has maintained a stable and progressive development trend due to effective macro policies and the acceleration of the national unified market [2] - Key economic indicators have remained stable in the first eight months of the year, supporting the long-term positive outlook for the economy [2] - The recent rise in the RMB against the USD is driven by expectations of significant rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and strong inflows of foreign capital into the domestic stock market [2][3] Group 3 - The USD index is expected to face downward pressure, while major non-USD currencies, including the RMB, are likely to appreciate [3] - The significant decline of the USD in the first half of the year has been largely priced in, and the current economic conditions in Europe and Japan may provide the USD with stronger resistance against further declines [3] - Domestic counter-cyclical adjustment policies are expected to ensure basic stability in economic operations, providing intrinsic support for the RMB exchange rate [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic policies and industry trends in investment strategies, highlighting the ability to identify investment opportunities through careful analysis of policy changes and market dynamics [1][3][17]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy of the company is characterized by a balance between aggressive and defensive strategies, adapting to market conditions through a dynamic asset allocation approach [6][11]. - The company focuses on capturing economic cycles and industry rotations, selecting 3 to 5 high-prospect industries for investment each year [6][7]. - The investment strategy includes a mix of long-term holdings and opportunistic trades, with a keen eye on emerging trends and sectors [15][17]. Group 2: Historical Context and Experience - The company’s investment manager, Yin Tao, has a rich background in macroeconomic research and media, which has shaped his investment acumen over 27 years [3][4]. - Yin Tao transitioned from journalism to investment management in 2008, where he developed skills in asset allocation and risk management during the global financial crisis [4][5]. - The company has successfully navigated multiple market cycles, demonstrating resilience and adaptability in its investment approach [5][12]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - The company’s managed funds have shown significant performance, with a net value growth rate of 19.18% over the past six months and 18.70% over the past year [5]. - According to data from Galaxy Securities, the company’s products ranked in the top 5% of their category over the past two years, indicating strong competitive performance [5]. Group 4: Sector Focus - The company identifies key sectors for investment, including AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption, which are seen as the main drivers of future growth [17]. - Yin Tao has successfully invested in leading stocks within these sectors, capitalizing on trends such as the rise of electric vehicles and innovative consumer products [14][15]. Group 5: Research and Analysis - The company employs a rigorous research methodology, including in-depth analysis of financial statements and market conditions, to identify high-quality growth stocks [10][9]. - Yin Tao emphasizes the importance of patience and thorough investigation in investment decisions, often revisiting companies to validate investment theses [9][10]. Group 6: Market Adaptation - The company adapts its strategies based on market conditions, employing a flexible approach to portfolio management that allows for quick adjustments in response to market volatility [12][13]. - Yin Tao’s strategy includes a focus on maintaining a balanced portfolio, with adjustments made to stock allocations based on performance and market signals [12][13].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content [1][2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is under pressure due to the strong stock market, and the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows has increased. The bond market oscillates between stable growth and loose expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [2]. - Repo rates have rebounded, and Treasury futures prices are oscillating. Attention should be paid to the decline of the 2512 basis. There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [3]. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [8]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 433.66 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.40 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.56%; M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, with no change; the manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a growth rate of 0.20% [8]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 96.67, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.65 and a decline rate of 0.67%; the offshore US dollar against the RMB is 7.1126, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.010 and a decline rate of 0.14%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.48, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.34%; DR007 is 1.50, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.98%; R007 is 1.51, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 and a decline rate of 3.26%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.08%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.08% [8]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of Treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each Treasury bond futures variety, the precipitation fund trend of each Treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each Treasury bond futures variety, etc. [10][13][15] III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the local bond issuance situation [25][31] IV. Spread Overview There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the inter - period spread trend of each Treasury bond futures variety, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [29][33][34] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [36][40][46] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [48][52] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [55][56] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [62][68]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The performance of finished products is expected to be weak with a downward - shifting center of gravity, showing an oscillatory and consolidating trend [1][2] - Aluminum ingot prices are expected to be supported by macro - expectations, with short - term price strength. Attention should be paid to inventory consumption during the peak season [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown will affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output; Anhui short - process steel mills' shutdown will affect a daily output of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [2] - Finished products prices continued to decline, and the market was pessimistic under the pattern of weak supply and demand. Winter storage was sluggish this year, providing little price support [2] Aluminum Ingot - Aluminum prices were strong yesterday. Investors are waiting for the Fed to resume interest rate cuts, and Trump called for faster monetary policy easing. China's industrial growth in August supported aluminum demand [1] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained high, with a slight increase in the industry's operating rate. The proportion of molten aluminum is expected to rise slightly [2] - Alumina prices fluctuated narrowly, and the immediate cost of electrolytic aluminum changed little. Although the weekly cost decreased, the demand improved, and the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises rose by 0.4 percentage points to 62.1% [2] - On September 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased. The inflection point of inventory reduction in September needs further observation [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2) Core Viewpoints - Domestic policy expectations are rising to counter increasing external pressures, with potential for incremental policies and fiscal expansion [1]. - The US inflation outlook is clearer, and the Fed is likely to restart the interest - rate cut cycle in September, with focus on the subsequent rate - cut path [2]. - There are investment opportunities in different commodity sectors, and it is advisable to allocate more to industrial products and precious metals at low prices [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In August, China faced increased external pressure including weaker exports to the US and potential tariff hikes. The government has signaled more active macro - policies. Economic data showed mixed results: industrial增加值 rose 5.2% year - on - year, retail sales growth slowed to 3.4%, and investment growth was far below expectations. Economic momentum continued to decline in July and August, and incremental policies are expected [1]. - In the US, the August ISM manufacturing index contracted for the sixth consecutive month, CPI increased to 2.9% year - on - year, PPI growth slowed, and employment data were disappointing, supporting Fed rate cuts. The CBO has lowered the US economic growth forecast [2]. Commodity Analysis - The black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to domestic supply - side factors; precious metals and agricultural products are affected by overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is dragged by downstream demand, the non - ferrous sector has long - term supply constraints, the energy sector has a relatively loose supply outlook, the chemical sector has "anti - involution" potential, and agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation but need fundamental support. Precious metals are a good investment opportunity ahead of the Fed's rate - cut cycle [3]. Strategy - It is recommended to allocate more to industrial products and precious metals at low prices in the commodity and stock index futures markets [4]. Key News - The National Bureau of Statistics stated that the national economy in August was generally stable but faced risks. Retail sales in August were 39668 billion yuan, up 3.4% year - on - year. Housing prices in 70 cities showed a narrowing decline. Sino - US trade talks were held in Spain from September 14 - 17 [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All products (steel, iron ore, coking coal and coke, thermal coal) are rated as "Oscillating Strong" [2][4][7] Core Views - The steel market is influenced by increasing macro - expectations, with steel prices oscillating strongly. The iron ore market has a significant increase in shipments, and it follows the sector. The coking coal and coke market has positive sentiment and prices have risen significantly. The thermal coal market has stable chemical terminal procurement, and the origin coal prices are oscillating strongly [1][3][5][8] Summary by Product Steel - **Market Analysis**: Steel futures prices oscillated and rose yesterday. Spot trading was average, with better low - price trading mainly for terminals and pre - oversold restocking. National building material trading volume was 11760 tons, and steel inventories increased. Building materials face increased fundamental contradictions under inventory pressure, while plate demand remains resilient [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: With the increasing probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, there are stronger expectations for domestic policy stimulus. Anti - involution policies and double - festival restocking expectations stimulate steel prices [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating strongly [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices weakened slightly yesterday. In the spot market, prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. Global iron ore shipments increased significantly to 3573000 tons, with notable growth in Brazil and non - mainstream regions. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 2362000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 86000 tons. National main port iron ore trading volume decreased by 13.90% to 96000 tons, while forward spot trading volume increased by 179.41% to 180500 tons [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore shipments recovered this week, arrivals decreased, and iron - water production increased significantly. Demand remains high, and inventory is at a medium level. Considering double - festival restocking demand, iron ore consumption is resilient [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating strongly [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices of coking coal and coke rose significantly yesterday. In the spot market, the second round of coke price cuts was implemented, and there are still expectations for further cuts. Downstream coke enterprises mainly maintain on - demand procurement. The price of imported Mongolian coal (Meng 5) is around 940 - 960 yuan/ton [5][6] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Policy expectations for counter - cyclical adjustment are strong. Fundamentally, production is restricted by over - production inspection policies, and consumption benefits from high iron - water production and pre - festival restocking. Inventory is decreasing, which may trigger price rebounds [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to be oscillating strongly in unilateral trading [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the origin, coal prices are rising steadily. Some mines have gradually restored supply after maintenance, and chemical terminal procurement is stable. In the port market, prices rebounded after stopping falling. Inventory did not increase significantly, and some traders were reluctant to sell. Imported high - calorie coal prices were stable, and low - calorie coal prices rebounded, narrowing the price gap with domestic coal [8] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Supply in the production area is recovering slowly. Although daily power coal consumption has decreased, non - power coal demand remains strong. In the short - term, prices will oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply is still abundant [8] - **Strategy**: Not provided in the report

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is in a weak recovery, with all Treasury bond futures closing higher. The bond market is oscillating between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. - The stock market's strong performance boosts risk appetite, which suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and rising global trade uncertainties add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale is 433.66 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.40 trillion yuan (+0.56%); M2 year - on - year growth is 8.80% with no month - on - month change; the manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% (+0.20%) [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 97.32, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.29 (-0.30%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 7.1213, with a month - on - month increase of 0.005 (+0.07%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.47, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 (+0.68%); DR007 is 1.48, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 (+1.76%); R007 is 1.51, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 (-3.26%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.57, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 (+0.40%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 (+0.40%) [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple figures are presented, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of Treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various Treasury bond futures varieties, the precipitation of funds in various Treasury bond futures varieties, the proportion of open interest in various Treasury bond futures varieties, the net open interest proportion of the top 20 in various Treasury bond futures varieties, the long - short open interest ratio of the top 20 in various Treasury bond futures varieties, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, and the issuance of Treasury bonds [14][15][18][24]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - Figures show the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase and the issuance of local government bonds [27]. IV. Spread Overview - Figures display the inter - delivery spread trend of various Treasury bond futures varieties and the term spread of cash bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [31][36][37]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [39][40][48]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [50][54]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [57][59]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [64][70]. 4. Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: As the repurchase rate rises, the price of Treasury bond futures oscillates [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - position holders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Economic Overview - In August, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 5.2% year-on-year, indicating a sustained rapid growth [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year in August, with significant growth in trade-in related goods [1] - The total import and export volume rose by 3.5% year-on-year in August, with both exports and imports achieving three consecutive months of growth [1] Production and Services - Industrial and service sectors maintained rapid growth, with industrial added value growth rates of 5.7% and 5.2% in July and August respectively [2] - The service production index grew by 5.8% and 5.6% in July and August, outpacing industrial growth [2] Employment and Prices - The urban survey unemployment rate was 5.3% in August, slightly up from the previous month but unchanged from the same period last year [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.4% year-on-year in August, primarily due to declining food prices, while core CPI continued to rise for four consecutive months [1] Investment Trends - Private investment in fixed assets decreased by 2.3% year-on-year from January to August, largely due to a 16.7% decline in real estate development investment [6] - Excluding real estate, private project investment grew by 3% year-on-year, indicating stability in other sectors [6] - Manufacturing sector private investment increased by 4.2% year-on-year, with 16 out of 31 manufacturing industries experiencing double-digit growth [6][7] Market Dynamics - The construction of a unified national market is enhancing market vitality, with manufacturing profits rising by 4.8% year-on-year from January to July [4] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed positive expectations, with indices for manufacturing and service sectors at 53.7% and 57% respectively in August [4] High-Tech and Infrastructure Investment - Private investment in high-tech industries, particularly information services, grew by 26.7% year-on-year from January to August [7] - Infrastructure private investment increased by 7.5%, surpassing the overall infrastructure investment growth rate [7]

资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 16 日 白糖：关注宏观政策 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 16.67 | 0.14 | 91 价差（元/吨） | 0 | 26 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5940 | 0 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 23 | 0 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5549 | 9 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 391 | -9 | 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：印度季风降水量再度增强。巴西出口下降，引发对于全球消费的担忧。巴西 8 月出口 374 万 吨，同比减少 5%；巴西 7 月出口 359 万吨，同比减少 5%。Conab 下调 25/26 榨季巴西产量至 4450 万吨，前 值 4590 万吨。中国 7 月进口食糖 74 万吨（+32 万吨）。 国内市场：CAOC 预计 24/2 ...