预期管理，常见于欧美成熟市场。通过预期利好提振市场，市场也受益于预期性的朦胧利好而不断走高。与实质性的利好措施相比，朦胧的利好预期，更容 易满足市场的情绪需求，当朦胧利好得到兑现之后，市场总想着更大的利好预期。从短期的角度分析，股市行情受到市场情绪波动的影响，但从中长期的角 度考虑，股市行情表现与经济基本面、上市公司盈利水平高度相关，这也是影响着股票市场的价值运行中枢水平。 在央行降准降息的背后，股市与楼市，谁受到的影响更大？ 其中，央行降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点，预计向市场提供中长期流动性达到1万亿元左右。与此同时，下调政策利率0.1个百分点，此举将会带动LPR的小 幅下行。LPR下行，有望带动存量房贷利率的继续下降，为存量房贷的购房者减轻房贷压力。 此外，此次政策层面还降低个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点。其中，5年期以上首套房利率从2.85%降低至2.6%，其他期限利率目标也会同步调整。 从直接影响分析，此次央行降准降息有利于缓解股市、楼市的流动性压力，通过政策利好传递出稳定股市、楼市的信号。在现阶段内，提振市场的投资信 心，缓解市场的流动性压力是稳定市场的关键措施。 央行降准降息，并不局限于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a comprehensive set of monetary policies to stabilize the economy and promote high-quality development in response to external uncertainties [1][2][12]. Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced 10 measures to enhance macroeconomic control, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [4]. - The PBOC will lower the policy interest rate by 0.1%, bringing the 7-day reverse repurchase rate down from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [4]. - A 0.25% reduction in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools will be implemented, affecting various special structural tools and re-lending rates [4]. - The personal housing provident fund loan rate will be reduced by 0.25%, with the five-year and above first home loan rate decreasing from 2.85% to 2.6% [4]. - An increase in the re-lending quota for technological innovation and technical transformation from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan will support the implementation of new policies [5]. Financial Regulatory Policies - The National Financial Regulatory Administration announced eight incremental policies to enhance the effectiveness of existing policies and support economic recovery [6]. - New financing systems will be introduced to stabilize the real estate market and expand the long-term investment pilot scope for insurance funds [7][8]. - Policies will be developed to support small and private enterprises, as well as to assist businesses affected by tariffs [9][10]. Capital Market Support - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is set to introduce a package of financial policies to stabilize the capital market and enhance investor confidence [12]. - Reforms in public funds will focus on aligning the interests of fund companies with investors, including a performance-based fee structure [12][13]. - The CSRC will revise regulations to support mergers and acquisitions, enhancing the capacity for innovation and risk management in listed companies [13]. Market Performance - On May 7, the A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.80% to 3342.67 points [14]. - Approximately 3300 stocks rose, with significant gains in sectors such as aerospace, shipbuilding, and agriculture [15]. - Analysts suggest that the newly announced financial policies are expected to boost market liquidity and support the transition to high-quality economic development [15].

Group 1 - The overall financial operation is stable, with banks and insurance institutions conducting business orderly and major regulatory indicators remaining in a healthy range [1] - The Financial Regulatory Administration plans to introduce eight incremental policies to further consolidate the economic recovery, including financing systems compatible with new real estate development models and support for small and private enterprises [2][3] - The approval of "white list" loans by commercial banks has increased to 6.7 trillion yuan, supporting the construction and delivery of over 16 million residential units [2] Group 2 - A financing coordination mechanism has been established to address the financing difficulties of small and private enterprises, with over 67 million businesses visited and loans amounting to 12.6 trillion yuan issued [3] - Policies will be implemented to support foreign trade development, ensuring that banks fulfill lending policies and provide tailored services for businesses affected by tariffs [3] - The capital adequacy ratio of banks and the solvency ratio of insurance companies have shown a stable upward trend, with non-performing loan ratios decreasing by approximately 0.1 percentage points [4] Group 3 - The no-repayment renewal loan policy has provided 4.4 trillion yuan in renewed loans for small and micro enterprises since its expansion, effectively meeting their financing needs [5] - The insurance industry has paid out approximately 1 trillion yuan in claims in the first four months of the year, with over 10 trillion yuan accumulated in long-term reserves for pension and health insurance [5]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a comprehensive set of monetary policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and various structural tools to support consumption and innovation [1][2]. Summary by Category Total Quantity Tools - The RRR has been lowered by 0.5%, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, reducing the average reserve requirement ratio from 6.6% to 6.2% [2]. - The decision to lower the RRR is intended to counteract government bond supply pressures and optimize the funding structure, while also reducing the cost of liabilities for commercial banks [2]. Total Price Tools - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate has been cut by 10 basis points to 1.40%, which is expected to lead to a similar reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3]. - The reduction in the reverse repurchase rate is anticipated to alleviate the pressure on commercial banks' interest margins and improve their cost of liabilities [3]. Structural Tools - The PBOC has expanded the quota for re-loans for technological innovation and transformation from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan, enhancing support for hard technology sectors [5]. - A new 500 billion yuan re-loan for service consumption and elderly care has been established to boost financial support in these areas, aiming to stimulate consumer confidence and address shortages in elderly care facilities [6]. - The quota for re-loans supporting agriculture and small enterprises has been increased by 300 billion yuan, continuing the PBOC's long-term support for inclusive finance [6]. Capital Market Support Tools - The PBOC has merged two existing capital market support tools with a total quota of 800 billion yuan to enhance liquidity and stability in the capital market [7]. - The introduction of a risk-sharing mechanism for technology innovation bonds aims to bolster market confidence and facilitate the development of a technology-focused bond market [8].

总结而言，本次央行、金监局和证监会三部委出台多项举措，释放积极政策信号，从支持实体经济和支 持资本市场两方面共同发力。1）支持实体经济方面，央行侧重为实体融资提供更多流动性，并有效降 低融资成本，为实体经济节省利息负担，同时可有效激发企业和居民融资需求。并且在结构化货币政策 工具方面加强创新，对房地产、消费养老、科技创新、外贸等领域全方位支持，在降低政策利率的同时 也有助于降低风险溢价。在当前外部挑战加剧的背景下，货币配合财政支持内需是正确的政策方向。 2）支持资本市场方面，发布会强调央行支持汇金公司发挥类"平准基金"作用，并且推动中长期资金入 市，优化政策工具也有望为资本市场持续带来"活水"。同时发布会回应市场关切，提出将加强跨境监管 合作，改善监管环境，支持优质中概股回归内地和香港市场，缓解外部金融风险带来的流动性冲击，有 助于改善市场整体风险偏好。 权益方面，展望后市，市场反弹至前期高点附近难免波动增加，但政策支持叠加市场自身韧性，看好中 期表现。近期市场连续反弹，已基本收复美国关税政策冲击的全部跌幅，关税对经济数据的影响也将逐 步体现，部分资金获利了结可能增加市场波动。但是多项支持性政策提振投资者风险 ...

今年以来，江苏灌云农商银行围绕省联社"千企万户大走访服务实体展担当"活动目标，以"春风润百业 同心惠万企"专项行动为引领，秉持"精准有效服务实体经济"的工作方针，将金融活水精准滴灌至田间 地头、产业链条与民生末梢，于春耕备耕关键时期，全力保障农资采购、农机租赁等领域的资金需求， 为春播春种注入强劲金融动能。 灌云县凭借农业资源优势，以"一镇一业、一村一品"为发展脉络，积极构建"产业+金融+生态"融合服务 体系。 灌云农商银行以"整村（整组）授信"为抓手，截至目前已累计授信1.23万户、金额16.48亿元，实现对全 县302个行政村的全覆盖，发放全县近半数普惠型小微企业贷款及三分之二普惠型涉农贷款。 该行还特别推出"富民兴村贷"专项产品，将利率从5.2%降至3.45%，累计授信8604万元，支持村办企业 153户，重点用于扶持应季特色经济作物种植项目，推动千亩连片蔬菜基地建设，助力村集体经营性收 入突破百万元大关，带动万名群众实现在家门口就业。 本报记者李美丽通讯员张静静 自移动展业平台上线以来，灌云农商银行创新打造"自由贷"普惠金融服务体系，通过精准对接乡村振兴 战略及实体经济发展需求，聚焦新型农业经营主体、 ...

上证报记者 史丽 摄 保险资金长期投资试点近期拟再批复600亿元 险资股票投资风险因子进一步调降10% 金融监管总局局长李云泽5月7日在国务院新闻办公室举行的新闻发布会上表示，进一步扩大保险资金长 期投资的试点范围，近期拟再批复600亿元，为市场注入更多增量资金。 他还提到，将调整偿付能力的监管规则，将股票投资的风险因子进一步调降10%，鼓励保险公司加大入 市力度；推动完善长周期考核机制，调动机构的积极性，促进"长钱长投"。 李云泽表示，进一步扩大保险资金长期投资试点范围，为市场引入更多的增量资金；调整优化监管规 则，进一步调降保险公司股票投资风险因子，支持稳定和活跃资本市场。 前4个月银行业保险业通过贷款、债券等方式为实体经济新增融资约17万亿元 李云泽表示，前4个月，银行业保险业通过贷款、债券等多种方式为实体经济新增融资约17万亿元，无 还本续贷政策自去年9月以来累计为中小微企业续贷4.4万亿元，更好满足了企业接续融资的需求。 今年1~4月保险业赔付约1万亿元 李云泽表示，前4个月，短期出口信用险承保金额同比增长15.3%，为稳外贸提供了有力的基础；今年 1~4月，保险业赔付约1万亿元，新能源车险承保车辆 ...

本文来自微信公众号： 秦朔朋友圈 （ID：qspyq2015） ，作者：秦朔，题图来自：AI生成 我有好几年没有到现场参加伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的股东年会了。由于芒格前年11月去世，去年的年会上， 人们习惯的"二人转"已经停演。 失去了老友、今年8月30日就要95周岁的巴菲特，在年会上还能亮相多久？我有点担心，所以今年来到奥马 哈，参加了5月3日的年会。 一、能不能首先做个好人、长期做 个好人？ 以前年会是一天时间，8点半开始，先放一部电影，9点多开始问答，午休后，接着问答。今年8点开会，取 消了电影环节，巴菲特寒暄一阵后就进入问答环节，中间短暂休息，再问答，中午快两点时结束。 他头脑依然清醒，但精力明显不如以前，说话的中气也不太够了。显然，压缩会议时间很明智。 在问答的尾声，他突然宣布自己计划在年底退休，将提请董事会批准格雷格·阿贝尔正式接任CEO一职。自 1965年收购伯克希尔，他领导这家公司已整整60年。 今年年会有4万人参加。我们早上7点多一点开始在场外排队，差不多一个半小时才进场，里面座无虚席。 前一天晚上就有人排队，也有花150美元、200美元雇人代排的。我碰到的上海一位投资人说，他是让公司 年轻人 ...

投资策略 | 定期报告 物来顺应 ——策略周报 0505 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 06 日 | 张书铭 | 021-63325888*5152 | | --- | --- | | 17 | zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 | | 张志鹏 | zhangzhipeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522020002 | | 段怡芊 | duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524010001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BVI649 | | 薛俊 | 021-63325888*6005 | | | xuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | | 以稳为主：——策略周报 0428 | 2025-04-28 | | --- | --- | | 缺乏稳定一致预期：——策略周报 0421 | 2025-04-20 | | 市场或仍将保持高波动：— ...

贸易缓和、经济数据强劲、科技巨头财报强劲，推升风险偏好 分析认为，近期美股的显著回暖，主要由以下三大引擎驱动： 1.贸易局势缓和预期: 白宫释放积极信号，显示特朗普政府可能降低对主要贸易伙伴的关税力度，甚至可能与中国达成协议，这大大缓解了市场的焦虑情绪。 2.经济数据强劲： 美国就业市场保持稳健，周五数据显示失业率稳定在4.2%的低位，为经济承受外部冲击提供了信心基础。 3.科技巨头业绩与AI热潮: Meta、微软等科技龙头交出亮眼财报，并重申对人工智能（AI）的巨额投入承诺，不仅自身股价大涨（微软周四涨7.6%，Meta涨 4.2%），更引爆了AI基础设施相关股票（如电力供应商Vistra、Constellation Energy）的行情。 反弹之下的三大质疑 尽管市场高歌猛进，但市场分析认为，支撑此轮反弹的基础却显得并不牢固，质疑之声主要来自以下三个层面： 1.质疑一：对美联储的降息预期是否"一厢情愿"？ 近期，美股上演了一场惊人的"V型反转"，在短短两周内强势收复4月初因特朗普政府"对等关税"言论造成的所有跌幅，标普500指数更是创下20年来罕见的九连 涨。 然而，这场短期内迅猛的反弹并未彻底消除市场内 ...