筑牢产业根基、着力扩大内需、深化改革开放、提速城市更新、巩固申遗成果……1月26日，在北京市 第十六届人民代表大会第四次会议"解读北京市国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要"专题新闻发 布会上，市发展改革委、市住房城乡建设委、市委宣传部等相关负责人分别对北京市"十五五"期间的重 点任务进行解读。 万亿投资、千亿地标、万亿产业集群 "十五五"时期，北京将主动服务和融入新发展格局、推动经济持续健康发展，安排了筑牢产业根基、着 力扩大内需、深化改革开放等重点任务。北京市发展改革委党组书记、主任杨秀玲就"十五五"规划纲要 （以下简称"规划纲要"）作了详细介绍。 打造千亿级融合消费新地标 实施扩大内需战略是更高效率促进经济循环的关键支撑。规划纲要指出，"十五五"时期，坚持惠民生和 促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，全面激发有潜能的消费。 杨秀玲表示，"十五五"时期，要构建更具活力的内需体系，"促进投资与消费良性互动，深化国际消费 中心城市建设，推进文商旅体展融合发展，打造2—3个千亿级融合消费新地标"。 根据规划纲要，"十五五"时期，北京要建设文商旅体融合发展的消费集聚区。打造2—3个千亿级融合消 费新地标，将环球 ...

中经记者 赵毅 广州报道 陈维靖表示，将英西峰林纳入全省户外运动目的地建设重点布局，并积极争取纳入国家后续批次建设名 单，不仅能进一步做大广东体育消费市场，更能带动周边镇村走出"户外运动+文旅+乡村振兴"的特色 发展路径，让体育消费红利持续赋能乡村发展。 2026年广东两会期间，体育消费升级、户外运动产业发展等议题备受关注，广东省政协委员、德高信控 股集团有限公司董事长陈维靖聚焦清远英西峰林发展潜力，围绕将其纳入全省户外运动目的地建设布局 提出系列针对性建议，以体旅融合新模式助力广东扩大内需，推动"百千万工程"高质量实施。 在国家"十五五"规划将促进消费、扩大内需置于重要位置的背景下，户外运动目的地建设成为广东释放 体育消费潜力、推动文旅融合的重要抓手。 规划引领方面，陈维靖提出由省体育、文化和旅游等部门指导清远市，编制《英西峰林户外运动与文旅 融合专项规划》，结合喀斯特地貌特色科学布局攀岩、徒步、骑行、露营、热气球等户外项目，同时统 筹生态保护、安全管理与游客容量控制，明确与周边乡村的联动发展路径，让规划更具发展层级和可操 作性。 尽管发展潜力巨大，但英西峰林打造高水平户外运动目的地仍面临多重现实瓶颈。在陈 ...

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 自1月9日国常会部署实施财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策后，近期多项财政金融协同促内需一揽子政 策落地。 1、设备更新贴息政策： 1月19日，财政部等关于优化实施设备更新贷款财政贴息政策的通知。政策实 施期限延迟至2026年底，新增建筑和市政、用能设备、航空器材、电子信息、安全生产、设施农业、 渔船、冷链设施、粮油加工、废弃物循环利用、小水电、消费商业设施、人工智能、养老等领域。1月 22日，国家发改委公告2026年第一批936亿元超长期特别国债支持设备更新资金已经下达，支持工 业、能源电力、教育、医疗、粮油加工、海关查验、住宅老旧电梯、节能降碳环保、回收循环利用等 领域约4500个项目，带动总投资超过4600亿元。 2、消费贷贴息政策 ：1月20日，财政部等发布《关于优化实施个人消费贷款财政贴息政策有关事项的 通知》，将政策延续到2026年底，将信用卡账单分期业务纳入支持范围，扩大经办机构范围等。 3、中小企业及民间投资 ：财政部等印发《关于实施中小微企业贷款贴息政策的通知》《关于实施 ...

人民财讯1月26日电，上海市委常委会1月26日举行扩大会议，传达学习省部级主要领导干部学习贯彻党 的二十届四中全会精神专题研讨班精神。会议指出，要推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合，加快培育发 展新质生产力，深化落实三大先导产业"上海方案"，推动制造业数智化、绿色化转型，促进服务业优质 高效发展，持续优化创新生态和产业生态。充分发挥"五个中心"建设先手棋作用，强化功能布局，深化 联动发展，相互赋能、相互促进。深入实施扩大内需战略，深化国际消费中心城市建设，接续实施提振 消费专项行动，持续推动文旅商体展深度融合。优化投资结构，提高投资效益，激发民间投资活力，加 大投资于人的力度。持续深化高水平对外开放，高质量建设东方枢纽国际商务合作区先行启动区，依托 走出去综合服务平台，加大专业服务人才引育，提升海外综合服务能力。扎实推进人民城市建设，坚持 把发展经济和改善民生结合起来，高水平滚动实施好民心工程。抓好社会治理创新，提高城市治理现代 化水平。加强韧性安全城市建设，提升本质安全水平。 ...

Core Insights - The CF40 macroeconomic policy report for Q4 2025 indicates that China's economy is in the early stages of recovery, with significant improvements in financial indicators such as the stock market, RMB exchange rate, social financing growth, and corporate deposits [1] - Corporate profits have reversed the downward trend observed over the past several years, while consumption and the labor market remain stable [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing counter-cyclical policy efforts in 2026, particularly through proactive fiscal policies and a focus on monetary policy to stimulate internal economic growth [1] Fiscal Policy - The report suggests that fiscal policy should maintain necessary spending levels through active borrowing [1] - Emphasis is placed on the role of monetary policy as a critical tool for activating internal growth dynamics [1] Monetary Policy - The current focus should be on the role of moderately loose monetary policy in expanding domestic demand [1] - Two key changes are necessary to encourage investment from businesses and consumption from residents: altering future expectations and ensuring that businesses and residents can "calculate the benefits" [1] - Monetary policy can leverage changes in expectations and incentives for investment and consumption to stimulate market-driven expansion of domestic demand [1]

1月26日，中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）发布的2025年第四季度宏观政策报告认为，2026年逆周期政策 力度是关键。财政政策需保持必要的支出力度。货币政策是重中之重，是激活经济内生增长动力的关键 依托。在力度充分的逆周期政策支持下，中国经济运行有望继续边际改善。 2025年，我国宏观经济出现诸多经济复苏的早期阶段特征：股票市场、人民币汇率、社融增速、企业存 款等金融指标有明显提升，企业盈利止住连续多年的下行趋势，消费、劳动力市场总体运行平稳。 上月召开的中央经济工作会议确定，2026年经济工作将抓好8项重点任务。其中，第一条就是"坚持内需 主导，建设强大国内市场。" 经济复苏的支撑力量主要来自财政、外需和前期的价格调整。CF40资深研究员、中国社科院世界经济 与政治研究所副所长张斌表示，经济复苏仍缺乏可持续的内生动力。这背后的主要原因是，相对于融资 成本而言，企业盈利预期较低，企业投资算不过来账；相对于租房而言，购买和持有住房的成本较高， 买房也算不过来账。 "2026年是非常关键的一年。经济已经初步具备复苏的势头，政策再往前迈一步就能让经济持续复 苏。"他建议，宽松货币政策要通过"改变预期"和"让微观主体 ...

1月26日上午，广东省十四届人大五次会议在广州开幕，省长孟凡利代表省人民政府作政府工作报告。 报告提到，2026年广东的主要预期目标是：地区生产总值增长4.5%—5%，在实际工作中全力争取更好 结果，地方一般公共预算收入增长3%左右，居民收入增长与经济增长同步。 可以预见，围绕扩大内需、科技创新、产业升级、区域协调、优化营商环境等关键领域，一系列更具针 对性、突破性的政策措施将加快落地，驱动经济航船在守住基本盘的同时，不断向着更高水平乘风破 浪。这份"全力争取"的斗志，源于广东雄厚的产业根基和澎湃的创新活力，也必将转化为推动经济持续 回升向好的强大动能。 （文章来源：南方都市报） 从经济环境角度看，2025年广东人均GDP约为11.48万元。这样的数据直观反映了人民的生活水平，同 时也意味着过去那种凭土地、靠低人力成本优势的经济发展模式难以为继。而在国际层面，近年来，全 球地缘冲突不绝，关税战此起彼伏，扰动不止，不确定性增加，外部压力持续加大。过去很长一段时 间，广东经济一路领跑，现在到了经济发展的十字路口，必须直面房地产调整、动能转换、模式更迭等 现实，抓住新的技术革命大风口，戮力推动经济转型。 沿着高质量 ...

财政部表示，将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，2026年财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量将保持必要水 平，实现"只增不减"的总体支出力度和"只强不弱"的重点领域保障。这表明积极的财政政策将继续支持 经济增长和关键领域发展，同时更加注重战略性、结构优化和精准滴灌。此外，财政部还提到财政金融 协同促内需一揽子政策已经陆续发布，旨在通过协同发力，更大力度地"激发民间投资"和"促进居民消 费"。在支持科技创新方面，财政部提出了多维度培育新动能的政策举措。 整体看，在积极的财政政策、适度宽松的货币政策以及财政金融协同发力的推动下，国内经济将呈现结 构更优、内生动能更强的良好发展态势。 工业生产稳中有进，2025年规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.9%，其中制造业增加值同比增长6.4%，表 现强劲。装备制造业增加值同比增长9.2%，占全部规模以上工业增加值的比重达到36.8%。高技术制造 业增加值同比增长9.4%，已成为引领工业高质量发展的核心驱动力。在新旧动能加速转型期，虽然整 体经济仍受房地产等传统领域调整的影响，但消费市场活力提升、新质生产力加快形成，为经济复苏奠 定了坚实基础。 宏观政策积极发力 1月20日，国新办举办两场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in China has shown zero growth over the past 15 years, despite a significant GDP increase of 250% during the same period, indicating a persistent weakness in PPI and underlying demand issues [1][5]. Group 1: PPI Trends and Historical Context - The PPI has been in a declining trend since October 2021, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% reported for December 2025, marking 39 consecutive months of decline [1][5]. - Historical data shows that from March 2012 to August 2016, PPI experienced negative growth for 54 months, and from July 2019 to January 2021, there were 18 months of negative growth [1][5]. - The PPI index, set at 100 in December 2010, remained at 100 by December 2025, indicating no overall price increase in 15 years [1][5]. Group 2: Factors Influencing PPI - The PPI's long-term decline is attributed to an oversupply in production capacity, particularly after China's entry into the WTO, which led to a significant drop in export dependence [12][13]. - The fluctuation in PPI is primarily influenced by the prices of production materials, which have shown a cumulative increase of zero over the past 15 years, while living material prices have increased by 4.4% [8][11]. - The prices of living materials peaked at 108.4% in November 2022 before declining, likely due to the end of pandemic-related restrictions [9]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The weak demand in the downstream market, particularly after the real estate sector peaked in 2021, has hindered the transmission of price increases from upstream to downstream sectors [41][42]. - The relationship between real estate investment and PPI is evident, with a significant drop in real estate investment correlating with the decline in PPI [36][38]. - The overall demand for consumer goods has been on a downward trend, with industrial value-added growth outpacing terminal demand growth since 2020, indicating a supply surplus [31][33]. Group 4: Recommendations for Economic Adjustment - To promote a moderate recovery in price levels, it is essential to adjust the supply-demand relationship, particularly by expanding effective demand [42]. - The focus should be on increasing the income of middle and low-income groups to stimulate consumption, while stabilizing the real estate market to alleviate oversupply issues [52]. - The government should optimize fiscal spending structures to enhance direct transfers to residents, thereby increasing disposable income and consumption [52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the consumer services industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [41]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in ticket bookings for domestic and international flights during the upcoming Spring Festival travel period, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 7.54 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 12% [5]. - The Ministry of Finance and other departments have established a special guarantee plan with a scale of 500 billion yuan to support loans for small and micro enterprises, which is expected to leverage nearly 900 billion yuan in private investment [5]. - The report suggests that the pre-holiday booking window for the Spring Festival has opened, with positive year-on-year performance in flight bookings, particularly benefiting destinations like Hainan due to increased tourist flow [5]. - The report recommends monitoring changes in booking data for transportation and hotels leading up to the Spring Festival, as well as investment opportunities arising from policies promoting service consumption [5]. Industry Data - The consumer services industry consists of 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.8 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 457.1 billion yuan [2]. - The industry experienced a weekly increase of 3.20%, outperforming the overall A-share market, which saw a 1.80% increase, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.62% [8][10]. - The report notes that the hotel and restaurant sectors showed positive performance, with hotel stocks rising by 3.69% and restaurant stocks by 3.31% during the reporting period [18]. Related Companies - Recommended companies include hotels with balanced supply and demand such as Junting Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, and Huazhu Group, as well as human resources services like Core International and Beijing Renli [5]. - The report also highlights companies in the duty-free sector benefiting from new policies, such as China Duty Free Group and Zhuhai Duty Free Group [5]. - Other notable mentions include online and offline integrated platforms like Meituan and Alibaba, and innovative tourism companies like Three Gorges Tourism and Changbai Mountain [5].