黄金的"千元时代"已逝？别做梦了！ 朋友圈里哀嚎遍野，国际金价一日暴跌30美元（约合人民币194元），国内首饰金价纷纷跌破千元大关。不少人惊呼："400元/克的黄金时代是不是要来 了？" 醒醒吧，朋友！这种想法过于天真，至少三个关键因素将黄金价格牢牢锁定在目前水平，让400元/克的黄金梦成为泡影。 一、美联储加息的"大锤"挥不动了 3. 市场情绪成熟理性: 黄金ETF近三周净流入23亿美元，机构投资者将金价下跌视为抄底良机。某黄金交易APP甚至在凌晨三点仍有交易记录，市场参与者 早已洞悉"割肉"的风险。期货市场看涨期权持仓量也创下三个月新高。 美元指数近期徘徊在105点左右，与当年压制黄金价格的110点高位相比，差距甚远。反观欧元区，德国PMI连续13个月萎缩；日本日元更是贬值严重。全球 资本除了美元，还能选择什么避险资产呢？美元越强势，黄金就越显得黯然失色，如同无人问津的废铁。 三、地缘政治风险与市场情绪交织 全球局势动荡不安，以色列与伊朗刚刚签署停火协议，却又传出核设施受威胁的消息；普京宣布增兵北约边境，特朗普又重提关税问题……甚至巴菲特都在 股东大会上表达了对美元信用的担忧。 在这种动荡的国际环境下，谁 ...

特朗普在输掉这场战斗之后，才逐渐意识到，和我国对抗无论如何都会使美国陷入困境。于是，他开始调整态度，逐步软 化对华政策。如今，他甚至计划访华，寻求通过合作实现双赢。但令人意外的是，在计划访问北京之前，特朗普却先给我 国送上了一个极具战略价值的机遇：美国的盟友们正面临新的困境。 虽然我国尚未正式发出邀请，但特朗普这几天已经将访华计划提上了日程。据说，他甚至已经组建了一支高规格的访问团 队。为了进一步彰显其访华的决心和分量，特朗普有可能会带上包括黄仁勋等在内的商界大佬，像几个月前访问沙特时那 样，力图在科技和经贸领域与我国展开深入的合作交流。双方若达成共识，可能会在访华期间立即签署合作协议。这意味 着，特朗普已经迫不及待地希望访问我国，只待我国的邀请。 特朗普自重新当选美国总统以来，始终与我国保持对抗，尽管他屡次试图换新招，但最后还是回到了老套路：通过加征关 税与我国对抗。特别是在今年4月，他发起了近年来中美之间最为激烈的一场关税战。面对我国的强力反击，特朗普的计划 最终宣告失败。 就在此时，特朗普突然对美国的一大亚洲盟友——日本，展开了猛烈的攻击。根据最新报道，特朗普再次强调要对日本加 征25%的汽车关税，并表 ...

Group 1 - The core issue is a global sell-off of U.S. Treasury bonds, with China liquidating $80 billion and Japan's central bank selling $20.6 billion, indicating a significant loss of confidence in U.S. debt [1][6] - The U.S. national debt has reached $36 trillion, with daily increases of $5.5 billion, yet U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen downplays the situation, suggesting it is not a major problem [1][6] - The dominance of the U.S. dollar is highlighted, with 59% of global foreign exchange reserves and 40% of international trade conducted in dollars, allowing the U.S. to maintain its financial position despite high debt levels [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury market sees daily trading volumes exceeding $600 billion, making it a safe haven during crises, despite significant sell-offs by countries like China and Japan [3][6] - The manipulation of interest rates, transitioning from LIBOR to SOFR, has placed global borrowing costs under U.S. control, further entrenching the dollar's dominance [3][5] - The U.S. is facing a looming fiscal crisis, with interest payments on national debt projected to reach $881 billion in 2024, surpassing military spending, and expected to rise to $1.8 trillion by 2035 [6][7] Group 3 - The depreciation of the dollar is seen as a strategy for the U.S. to manage its debt, with projections indicating a drop in the dollar index from 105 to 85 between 2023 and 2025, leading to significant losses for countries holding U.S. debt [5][6] - The shift towards de-dollarization is accelerating, with BRICS nations increasingly using local currencies for trade, and significant gold purchases by central banks indicating a move away from dollar reliance [7]

Core Insights - The rapid emergence of stablecoins is influenced by both opportunistic factors, such as U.S. President Trump's policy preferences, and the inevitable trends of globalization and financialization in the digital economy [1][2] - The U.S. places significant emphasis on stablecoins to maintain the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the global financial system [1][2] Group 1: Characteristics of Stablecoins - Stablecoins represent a stage in the evolution of currency forms in the tokenized era, demonstrating initial monetary attributes despite existing challenges [1] - They achieve three balances: the combination of public and private rights, the integration of centralization and decentralization, and the collaboration between on-chain and off-chain systems [1] Group 2: Criticism and Future Outlook - The Bank for International Settlements has criticized stablecoins for failing to meet basic monetary functions, yet a more open and inclusive perspective is encouraged towards this emerging phenomenon [1] - The future landscape will see competition and cooperation between technology companies and financial institutions as commercial banks gradually participate in stablecoin issuance, further advancing the digital financial ecosystem [1] Group 3: Globalization and Strategic Considerations - The U.S. aims to create a tokenized global financial system based on the dollar, leveraging stablecoins to generate operational demand for U.S. Treasury bonds [2] - For the internationalization of the Renminbi, a "dual-track parallel" strategy is recommended, focusing on accelerating the development of central bank digital currency while exploring Renminbi-pegged stablecoins [2]

Group 1: Dollar System and Oil Trade - The acceptance of RMB for oil transactions by Saudi Arabia marks a significant challenge to the petrodollar system, with 28% of Middle Eastern oil trade with China using RMB by 2025 [3] - The integration of the Saudi central bank into China's cross-border payment system has reduced transaction costs by 50% and transaction time from 3 days to 10 seconds [3] - The sale of $634 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds by Saudi Arabia has further destabilized the petrodollar system [3] Group 2: Rare Earths and U.S. Manufacturing Challenges - China implemented export controls on seven types of heavy rare earths, directly impacting the U.S. military industry, as key components for F-35 jets and Tomahawk missiles rely on these materials [5] - The U.S. lacks sufficient domestic refining capacity for heavy rare earths, with only one company, MPMaterials, producing at industrial-grade purity [5] - The Pentagon has warned that the F-35 production line could halt within six months due to supply chain disruptions [6] Group 3: Energy Crisis and China's Strategic Position - The U.S. saw zero oil imports from March to May 2025, the longest interruption since 2018, leading to a drop in U.S. oil exports to a two-year low [8] - Texas oil fields faced a backlog of over 43 million barrels, with WTI prices falling below $70 per barrel, while shale oil production costs remained high [8] - China's diversified energy network has allowed it to increase oil imports from Iran and Canada significantly, while reducing reliance on U.S. oil [9] Group 4: U.S. Policy Adjustments and Global Reactions - In response to the energy crisis and rare earth supply issues, the Trump administration made several concessions, including lifting restrictions on chip design software for China and approving GE's engine supply for China's C919 aircraft [12] - The U.S. faced backlash from allies regarding tariffs, with the EU and Japan resisting U.S. agricultural tariffs, leading to a breakdown in negotiations [12] Group 5: U.S.-China Relations and Strategic Shifts - Chinese officials emphasized a desire for peace while asserting core interests, particularly regarding Taiwan, which led to a halt in U.S. military actions in the Taiwan Strait [13] - China's economic strategies, including supply chain adjustments and technology controls, have forced the U.S. to reassess its strategic approach [13] Group 6: Rise of New Energy and China's Global Leadership - China dominates the global renewable energy market, producing 73% of solar components and 68% of power batteries [15] - The digital RMB cross-border payment system supports 38% of global trade, facilitating China's energy trade with various countries [15] - As the world shifts towards renewable energy, China's leadership in this sector signifies a pivotal change in the global economic landscape [15] Group 7: Conclusion and Future Outlook - The ongoing competition between the U.S. and China reflects a silent struggle for dominance in the energy sector, with China emerging as a leader in renewables while the U.S. grapples with its energy challenges [17] - This transition marks a significant milestone in China's rise within the global economic framework [17]

据报道，7月3日，商务部例行新闻发布会上，有记者提问，据报道特朗普考虑9月初带企业团访华，中 方能否确认？商务部发言人回应称没有相关信息可提供 。而在此之前，美方刚释放特朗普可能访华消 息不久，就高调宣布逮捕中国公民，这背后到底有着怎样的算计？中方又将如何应对？ 在外交战略方面，特朗普同样失误连连。他暂停与日本的贸易谈判，甚至直接威胁日方，若不达成协议 就再加税30%。可在美国精心布局的"印太战略"中，日本占据着至关重要的地位，其主要作用是对解放 军动向进行"监视"。如今特朗普对日本步步紧逼，无疑给了中国一个绝佳的战略机遇 。 面对美国的种种行径，中国外交部迅速做出强硬回应。外交部发言人明确指出，中方坚决反对任何没有 国际法依据、未经联合国安理会授权的单边制裁行为。并且强调，中方必将采取一切必要措施，坚定维 护中国公民的正当合法权益 。这不仅是对美国非法行为的有力回击，更是向世界表明中国维护自身公 民权益的坚定决心。 与此同时，王毅外长飞赴欧洲，前往欧盟总部所在地比利时布鲁塞尔，与比利时首相德韦弗、欧盟"外 长"卡拉斯、欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩举行会面。中方深知，一旦美国的"印太战略"受阻，极有可能将 战略重心 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "One Big Beautiful Bills" legislation is crucial for the global capital market's trajectory in the second half of the year and could significantly impact wealth over the next few years [1][6]. Summary by Sections Legislation Overview - The "One Big Beautiful Bills" legislation aims to reduce taxes by $4 trillion and increase the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, primarily benefiting corporations and wealthy individuals to attract investment back into the U.S. manufacturing sector [7]. - The legislation's core logic involves providing tax cuts for the wealthy while increasing the debt ceiling to maintain fiscal spending, leading to a historical high of over $41 trillion in U.S. debt [7]. Debt Management Strategy - The increase in U.S. debt is seen as a means to manage the existing debt crisis and maintain the dollar's global dominance, despite concerns about the declining credit quality of U.S. debt [9]. - The proposed "Pennsylvania Bill" aims to convert foreign-held debt into domestic debt, reducing reliance on foreign investors by encouraging domestic institutions and individuals to hold U.S. debt [11]. Economic Policy Implications - The strategy includes depreciating the dollar and lowering interest rates to facilitate the debt replacement process, similar to Japan's long-term economic approach [13][15]. - The U.S. government may implement policies to ensure domestic entities, such as pension funds and insurance companies, are compelled to purchase U.S. debt, potentially with the Federal Reserve acting as a backstop [11][12]. Future Considerations - The introduction of stablecoin legislation is intended to maintain the dollar's status in the global economy, as it could facilitate digital payments while binding stablecoins to the dollar [16]. - The overall strategy may lead to a significant depreciation of the dollar and U.S. debt, creating a favorable environment for alternative assets such as commodities and high-dividend stocks [16]. Investment Opportunities - The anticipated depreciation of the dollar and U.S. debt prices suggests that the second half of the year may favor safe-haven assets, including precious metals and stable income-generating investments [16].

稳定币作为数字金融领域的新兴产物，近年来在全球范围内快速发展，其对主权货币体系、跨境支付与 金融稳定的影响日益凸显。 7月3日晚，复旦大学经济学院成功举办第3期复旦大学南土国际金融政策圆桌会，主题为"跨学科视野下 的稳定币问题"。本次圆桌会由复旦大学经济学院牵头组织，旨在从法学、新闻学等多学科视角，深入 探讨稳定币发展现状、影响及未来趋势，为应对国际金融格局新变化提供学术参考。来自复旦大学经济 学院、计算机学院、国务学院、新闻学院、法学院和中文系的专家学者齐聚一堂，围绕稳定币的核心议 题展开了富有深度的交流与研讨。 会议由复旦大学国际金融研究中心主任杨长江教授主持，吸引了众多业内人士和学术研究者关注，观察 者网进行独家报道。 复旦大学思想史研究中心秘书长、中国语言文学系教授白钢探讨了中美在稳定币领域的竞争，从文化和 认知的角度提供了新视野。他指出，以稳定币为代表的新型的货币，实际上是新的历史条件下，各国对 于世界货币发行主导权的争夺。美国通过稳定币转嫁债务危机，维护其金融主导地位，而中国则应依托 制造业和供应链优势，构建符合自身利益的稳定币体系。他强调，中国在物质层面的"实力"已然足够， 应重视在意识形态层面 ...

Group 1 - The Freemasons originated in medieval Europe as a guild for stonemasons and architects, evolving into a modern organization in 1717 with principles of reason, freedom, and equality [3][5] - The Freemasons gained significant influence in the United States, with notable members including George Washington and Benjamin Franklin, impacting key historical events such as the American Revolution [6][8] - The establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913 is closely linked to the Freemasons, with key figures in its creation being members, raising suspicions about their influence over the U.S. financial system [10][14] Group 2 - The assassination of President John F. Kennedy in 1963 is surrounded by conspiracy theories, with some suggesting it was linked to his monetary policies that challenged the Federal Reserve [18][20] - Abraham Lincoln's assassination in 1865 is also speculated to be connected to his financial policies, particularly the issuance of "greenbacks" that bypassed traditional banking systems [21][23] - The dominance of the U.S. dollar as the world's primary currency has historical ties to the Freemasons, with their influence seen in the establishment of the Bretton Woods system and subsequent shifts to a petrodollar system [25][30] Group 3 - The Freemasons' historical presence in the U.S. has been significant, with their influence noted in the formation of financial systems and key political events, although mainstream historians often regard these connections as speculative [16][32] - The current trends of de-dollarization and the rise of digital currencies pose challenges to the U.S. dollar's supremacy, potentially affecting the Freemasons' influence in the future [34]

Group 1 - The "Big Beautiful Bill" was narrowly passed in the Senate with a vote of 51-50, indicating a contentious political environment [2] - The bill has undergone changes from its version passed in the House, necessitating further negotiations between the two chambers [3] - The core of the bill is described as favoring military spending and tax cuts for the wealthy, while reducing welfare benefits for the poor [5][11] Group 2 - The bill's tax cuts disproportionately benefit large corporations and wealthy individuals, raising concerns about increasing fiscal deficits and national debt [5][15] - The elimination of subsidies for renewable energy is seen as a significant threat to companies like Tesla, which rely on these incentives [6] - The political dynamics suggest that traditional energy interests are prioritized over renewable energy, leading to potential conflicts for companies in the green sector [8][10] Group 3 - The bill is criticized for shifting the financial burden onto lower-income individuals while providing minimal tangible benefits to them [11][12] - The narrative surrounding the bill is manipulated to distract the public from its regressive nature, similar to historical tax policies that favored the elite [13] - The potential long-term consequences of the bill could lead to inflation and a devaluation of the dollar, impacting global economic stability [15][20]