Group 1: International Currency Status - The international status of the Renminbi (RMB) is under scrutiny, with its share in global foreign exchange reserves at only 4.7%, compared to the US dollar's 57% [1][3] - The dominance of the US dollar is attributed to decades of established international settlement currency status, which has created a currency exchange system that favors the dollar [1][3] - Changing the current situation requires a long-term strategic game with the US, potentially taking ten to twenty years or more, and necessitates the US gradually relinquishing its power [3] Group 2: Cross-Strait Relations and Political Dynamics - Tensions in US-China relations are escalating, with the US sending mixed signals regarding support for Taiwan's ruling party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) [5] - The DPP's attempt to eliminate the Kuomintang (KMT) through a large-scale purge has failed, indicating that the KMT remains a significant political force [7] - The existence of the KMT is seen as necessary for balancing internal power dynamics, especially in the context of ongoing US-China tensions, as a one-party dominance by the DPP could destabilize cross-strait relations [9]

1930年6月，美国国会通过《斯姆特-霍利关税法》，将2000多种进口商品关税提到历史最高点。一年后，全球贸易规模萎缩60%，这场关税战被经济学家公 认为加剧大萧条的元凶。 近百年后的现在，今年的7月31日，特朗普在"真实社交"平台连发三条贺电，欢呼"关税正让美国再次伟大富强"，宣称美国经济从"死寂中复苏"。 全球屏息等待8月1日关税大棒落下时，一支中国舰队正破浪驶向俄罗斯远东，从稀土管制到中俄军演，再到中美深夜达成90天缓冲协议，中国突围战已然打 响。 特朗普的关税政策，三条贺电背后的真相 今年7月，特朗普三天内向22国射出关税子弹：日本韩国挨了25%"盟友税"，巴西因拒绝停止调查前总统博索纳罗被独吞50%惩罚性税率，欧盟汽车关税从 平均4.8%飙升至15%。 更狠的是埋下"转口条款"陷阱，经越南中转的第三国商品追加40%关税，彻底堵死企业绕道之路。 欧盟最后时刻签下"裹着糖衣的毒药"：统一关税压到15%的代价，是未来五年购买7500亿美元美国液化天然气，并向美完全开放汽车市场。 德国车企算盘打得清醒：奔驰宝马北美利润预计缩水40%，马克龙直接撕破脸："欧洲必须减少对美国的依赖！" 东亚盟友同样憋屈。韩国用 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current turmoil in the financial markets, driven by political pressures, internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, rising bond yields, and global trade tensions, all of which are contributing to a potential shift in the global financial order. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The market anticipates a 96.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July, with a 62.6% chance of a rate cut in September [1] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are evident, with three factions emerging: dovish, cautious about inflation, and hawkish, with differing views on interest rate adjustments [4] - The Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates steady reflects the complex interplay of political and economic pressures, with significant implications for future monetary policy [9] Group 2: Political Influences - President Trump's late-night tweet demanding a 300 basis point rate cut caused immediate market reactions, including a spike in gold prices and a drop in the dollar index [3] - The White House has begun the process of selecting a new Federal Reserve chair, indicating potential shifts in monetary policy direction [3] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassed 5%, marking the beginning of a "long-term high interest rate era," which could lead to increased debt servicing costs for the government [5] - The yield curve is approaching levels not seen since the 1980s, raising concerns about potential market instability [5] Group 4: Global Trade and Technology - The U.S.-China tech rivalry continues to escalate, with significant developments such as NVIDIA's approval to export AI chips to China, impacting market sentiment [6] - Trade tensions are further exacerbated by new tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Indonesian products, leading to retaliatory threats from other nations [6] Group 5: Precious Metals Market - Gold futures prices have surged to a historical peak of $3444 per ounce, while silver prices have also seen significant increases, reflecting heightened demand amid market volatility [7] - In contrast, the domestic gold market in China has experienced a decline in sales, indicating a potential shift in consumer behavior amidst fluctuating prices [7]

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, emphasizes that pain and reflection lead to progress, marking his retirement after selling all his shares in the fund [1][2]. Group 1: Bridgewater's Recent Developments - Bridgewater has repurchased all remaining shares from Dalio and issued new shares to the Brunei Sovereign Wealth Fund, granting it nearly 20% ownership [2]. - Dalio has successfully predicted major trends over his 50-year career, including the 2008 financial crisis and the European debt crisis [2]. Group 2: Future Economic Predictions - Dalio warns of a 65% probability of a global debt crisis in the next five years, which could severely impact the dominance of the US dollar [4]. - He believes that entities failing to recognize their position in economic cycles will be overwhelmed by powerful economic forces [4]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy and Historical Performance - Dalio's investment journey began in 1975, leading Bridgewater to become the world's largest hedge fund, with notable performance during crises [5]. - Despite recent challenges, Bridgewater's flagship fund, Pure Alpha, has shown improvement, achieving an 11.3% return in 2024 and 17% in the first half of 2025 [6]. Group 4: Critiques of Dalio's Debt Theory - Dalio's theory on debt accumulation has faced criticism for applying microeconomic reasoning to macroeconomic issues, potentially oversimplifying complex economic dynamics [7][8]. - Critics argue that the sustainability of US debt is tied to the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, which is threatened by various factors [8]. Group 5: Dalio's Legacy and Principles - Dalio reflects on his journey with Bridgewater, emphasizing the importance of culture, decision-making standards, and learning from mistakes [10]. - He outlines seven key investment principles, including understanding causal relationships and the importance of diversification to mitigate risk [10][11].

Group 1 - The core of the ongoing geopolitical struggle revolves around the defense and challenge of US dollar hegemony, with the US expressing strong opposition to energy cooperation among China, Russia, and Iran due to fears of a "de-dollarization" process [4][6] - The construction of a "non-dollar" system is shaking the foundations of the entrenched "petrodollar" system, with countries like India, Brazil, and Turkey actively seeking diversification strategies under US sanctions pressure [6][8] - The contrasting strategies of the US's "wall-building" (protectionism and high tariffs) and China's "bridge-building" (multilateral cooperation and industrial upgrading) highlight a potential decline in US international influence as more countries seek collaboration with China [8] Group 2 - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's comments on the "collapse" of the Chinese economy reflect Washington's anxiety and strategic goals, citing pressures in the real estate market and accusations of dumping cheap goods as unsustainable practices [8][9] - However, these claims are contradicted by international assessments and China's own economic data, which show a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, surpassing the annual target of 5% [9][11] - The rapid convening of a trilateral meeting in Tehran among China, Russia, and Iran directly counters US efforts to isolate China, with all parties opposing unilateral sanctions not authorized by the UN Security Council [13][15] Group 3 - The US's strategy of building alliances while simultaneously imposing tariffs on allies raises questions about its strategic consistency, leading to internal dissent within the US regarding the rapid implementation of sanctions [15][16] - The diplomatic contrast between Yellen's rhetoric and China's proactive actions illustrates that the reality of multipolarity is reshaping the international order, with US pressure inadvertently catalyzing deeper cooperation among China, Russia, and Iran [16][18] - This geopolitical struggle signals the emergence of a more balanced and multipolar international order, accelerating amidst the anxieties and struggles of the old hegemony [18]

Core Insights - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has sold all his remaining shares and stepped down from the board, marking his retirement after a 50-year investment career [1][8] - Bridgewater has repurchased Dalio's shares and issued new stock to the Brunei sovereign wealth fund, giving it nearly 20% ownership [1] - Dalio warns of a 65% probability of a global debt crisis in the next five years, which could severely impact the dominance of the US dollar [1] Performance - Bridgewater Associates, founded by Dalio in 1975, has become the world's largest hedge fund under his leadership, achieving significant returns during key financial crises [2] - The flagship fund, Pure Alpha, has seen a decline in assets from $168 billion at the end of 2019 to an expected $92.1 billion by the end of 2024, with a cumulative return of only 5.9% over five years [3] - However, after limiting its size, Pure Alpha improved its performance, achieving an 11.3% return in 2024 and 17% in the first half of 2025 [3] Controversies - Dalio's debt theory has faced criticism, particularly regarding his approach to macroeconomic analysis, which some argue is overly simplistic [4][5] - Critics suggest that his view of national debt as a direct precursor to crises does not account for the complexities of macroeconomic behavior and the unique position of the US as the issuer of the world's primary reserve currency [5][6] Legacy - Dalio has emphasized the importance of principles in his investment philosophy, including the need for a culture of transparency and learning from mistakes [8] - He has expressed excitement about the future of Bridgewater without his direct involvement, hoping for continued success under new leadership [8] - Dalio's investment principles highlight the significance of understanding causal relationships, diversification, and the importance of adapting to changing market conditions [10]

Core Insights - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has sold all his remaining shares and stepped down from the board, marking his retirement after a 50-year investment career [1][8] - Bridgewater has repurchased Dalio's shares and issued new stock to the Brunei sovereign wealth fund, giving it nearly 20% ownership [1] - Dalio warns of a 65% probability of a global debt crisis in the next five years, which could severely impact the dominance of the US dollar [1][9] Performance - Dalio founded Bridgewater in 1975 and has successfully predicted major trends, including the 2008 financial crisis and the European debt crisis, achieving significant returns for investors [2][3] - Bridgewater's assets under management have decreased from $168 billion at the end of 2019 to an expected $92.1 billion by the end of 2024 [3] - The flagship fund, Pure Alpha, has underperformed compared to the US stock market, with a cumulative return of only 5.9% over five years, although it improved to 11.3% in 2024 [3] Controversies - Dalio's debt theory has faced criticism, particularly regarding his approach to analyzing macroeconomic issues with a microeconomic mindset [4][5] - Critics argue that his views on national debt do not account for the unique position of the US as the issuer of the world's primary reserve currency, which allows for sustainable debt levels as long as the dollar remains accepted globally [5][6] Legacy - Dalio has emphasized the importance of principles in his investment philosophy, including the need for a diversified portfolio and understanding the causal relationships that drive market changes [9][10] - He has outlined seven key investment principles, stressing the importance of risk management and the need to adapt to changing market conditions [9][10] - Dalio expresses confidence in the future of Bridgewater under new leadership, hoping it will thrive without his direct involvement [8][9]

Core Insights - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has sold all his remaining shares and stepped down from the board, marking his retirement after a legendary investment career [1][8] - Bridgewater has repurchased Dalio's shares and issued new stock to the Brunei sovereign wealth fund, giving it nearly 20% ownership of the firm [1] - Dalio warns of a 65% probability of a global debt crisis in the next five years, which could severely impact the dominance of the US dollar [1][10] Performance - Dalio founded Bridgewater in 1975, and under his leadership, it became the world's largest hedge fund, achieving significant returns during major financial crises [1][2] - The flagship fund, Pure Alpha, saw a cumulative return of only 5.9% over five years ending in 2024, but improved to 11.3% in 2024 and 17% in the first half of 2025 [3][10] Controversies - Dalio's debt theory has faced criticism, particularly regarding his approach to macroeconomic analysis, which some argue is overly simplistic [4][5] - Critics suggest that his understanding of macroeconomics as a machine fails to account for the complexities and unpredictability of economic behavior [6] Legacy - Dalio has emphasized four key principles for success at Bridgewater: the importance of people and culture, learning from mistakes, the value of transparency, and the equation "Pain + Reflection = Progress" [8][9] - He expresses confidence in the next generation of leaders at Bridgewater to continue its legacy of success [8]

Core Viewpoint - Gold has historically been viewed as a stable asset, contrasting with the volatility of paper currencies and stock markets, and serves as a strategic reserve for central banks, particularly in China [1][4]. Group 1: Historical Context - After World War II, the Bretton Woods system established the U.S. dollar as the core of the international financial system, with over two-thirds of global gold reserves held by the U.S. [1][2]. - Countries stored their gold in the U.S. for safety and convenience, as the U.S. was the world's strongest economy at the time [1][2]. Group 2: Current Gold Storage Practices - Despite the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, many countries, including China, have retained their gold in the U.S. due to the dollar's continued dominance in international trade [2][4]. - China is estimated to have about 600 tons of gold stored in the New York Federal Reserve, which is known for its high security [2][4]. Group 3: Reasons for Storing Gold Abroad - Storing gold in the U.S. helps diversify risk, protecting against potential domestic disasters or geopolitical conflicts [4][9]. - The liquidity of gold transactions is enhanced by its storage in New York, facilitating participation in global markets [4][9]. Group 4: Challenges in Repatriating Gold - Historical attempts by countries like Germany to retrieve gold from the U.S. have faced delays and complications, indicating that repatriation is not straightforward [8][9]. - The U.S. has previously frozen foreign assets, raising concerns about the security of gold reserves held abroad [6][9]. Group 5: China's Strategy - China has been increasing its gold reserves while reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, reflecting a strategy to mitigate risks associated with U.S. dollar dominance [9][11]. - As of December 2024, China's gold reserves reached 2,271 tons, a 16.6% increase over two years, while its U.S. debt holdings decreased by over 40% [9][11]. Group 6: Future Implications - The rising importance of gold in the international financial system is expected to grow alongside the increasing international status of the Chinese yuan [13]. - The dual strategy of maintaining gold reserves abroad while increasing domestic holdings aims to safeguard China's economic interests amid global uncertainties [11][13].

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong is set to launch a licensing system for stablecoins backed by fiat currency, which may pave the way for the issuance of RMB-denominated stablecoins, especially in the context of the U.S. pushing for USD-backed stablecoins through the GENIUS Act [2][6]. Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) emphasizes the importance of promoting the healthy and responsible development of digital assets to reinforce Hong Kong's status as an international financial center [4]. - The new stablecoin regulations, effective from August 1, 2023, require companies to obtain a license from the HKMA to issue and sell stablecoins [6]. - Approximately 50 companies have reportedly applied for licenses to issue stablecoins in Hong Kong [6]. Group 2: Market Context and Implications - The stablecoin market is currently dominated by USD-backed stablecoins, which account for 99% of the total [2][8]. - The introduction of stablecoins linked to the Hong Kong dollar or USD is expected to facilitate online shopping and may have broader applications in digital asset settlements [4]. - The offshore RMB market in Hong Kong is significant, with the region accounting for about 76% of offshore RMB transactions, and the offshore RMB deposits reaching 1 trillion yuan [7]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning - The issuance of RMB-denominated stablecoins is seen as a strategic move for China to counter the dominance of the USD in the digital currency space, especially as the U.S. strengthens its financial position through legislation like the GENIUS Act [6][8]. - The Chinese government is cautious about capital outflows and has banned domestic virtual currency trading while supporting Hong Kong as a testing ground for virtual currency policies [6]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that the issuance of offshore RMB-denominated stablecoins could occur between the end of 2025 and 2026, despite existing challenges [8].