Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how the United States, despite its massive debt of $30 trillion, remains a dominant global power due to the influence of the US dollar, which allows it to benefit from global wealth accumulation and consumption [1]. Group 1: Historical Context of the Dollar - The US dollar's historical link to gold established its position as the world's leading currency, as it was once directly convertible to gold, making it a trusted medium for international trade [3][5]. - The US capitalized on global conflicts, particularly during the World Wars, to accumulate gold reserves by selling military supplies to warring nations [8]. - In 1971, the US decoupled the dollar from gold, allowing for unlimited dollar printing, which was later supported by a deal with Saudi Arabia to conduct oil transactions exclusively in dollars [13][15]. Group 2: Economic Mechanisms and Impacts - The US's strategy involves printing large amounts of money, which can lead to inflation and devaluation of the dollar, impacting other countries holding dollar reserves [11][20]. - The influx of "hot money" into emerging markets can create temporary economic booms, but when the US capital withdraws, it often leads to economic collapse in those countries [22][24]. - The article describes this dynamic as a form of "financial colonialism," where the economic sovereignty of target countries is compromised by US monetary policy [26]. Group 3: Global Response and "De-dollarization" - Many countries are exploring alternatives to the dollar, with 42 nations researching digital currencies to reduce reliance on the US dollar [28][30]. - Initiatives like the establishment of trade mechanisms using local currencies, such as the euro for trade with Iran, signify a shift away from dollar dominance [32]. - Russia and China are leading efforts in "de-dollarization," with increasing use of their currencies in bilateral trade, particularly in energy transactions [35][37]. Group 4: Future Outlook - While the dollar's dominance remains strong, the article suggests that ongoing efforts towards "de-dollarization" could gradually weaken its position, especially as countries seek to mitigate the impacts of US monetary policy [38][40]. - The potential decline of the dollar's status could lead to significant changes in global economic dynamics, reducing the ability of the US to leverage its currency for global influence [42][44].

刷新闻是不是越看越懵？俄乌还在打，巴以没停火，朝韩关系又紧张，伊朗和以色列也时不时互扔导 弹。但说真的，这些顶多算"大戏前的群演互殴"，真正的主角就俩，那就是中国和美国。 大家肯定特关心经济啥时候能回暖，工资啥时候能涨，手里的钱啥时候能更值钱。想知道答案？得先把 这场"对手戏"的套路看明白，不然真等机会来了都抓不住。 相信很多人都还记得这两个关键日子，2022年2月24日俄乌冲突正式爆发，不到一个月，2022年3月美联 储就宣布加息。这时间点凑得也太巧了，根本不是巧合，就是美国精心写的"收割剧本"。 美国先是在欧洲家门口"放鞭炮"，故意拱火让俄乌打起来。欧洲本来安安稳稳的，一打仗产业和资本立 马慌了，就像遇到火灾的游客，赶紧找安全地方躲。放眼全球，最安全的就中国和美国，这些资本自然 想往这俩地方跑。 美国哪能容忍资本跑到中国来？赶紧亮出"加息"这张牌，相当于在全球挂出"存钱利息翻倍"的招牌。简 单说就是告诉全世界：把钱放我这，能赚更多，快来！这一招直接导致全球陷入"钱荒"。 美国这套路可不是第一次用，堪称"金融收割机"，从上世纪80年代开始，拉丁美洲、日本、东南亚、苏 联，挨个被它"薅羊毛"，每次都摧枯拉朽。 ...

更离谱的是，美国农民首当其冲。中国反制关税一上来，美国大豆出口直接被砍掉一大块，2019年美国不得不拿出280亿美元补贴农民。这钱哪来的？税 收。说白了还是美国老百姓埋单。 企业也没好到哪去。根据美小企业联合会的调研，到2025年，美国中小企业因为关税，每家每年平均多花12万美元成本。你想象一下，一个本来利润就不厚 的中小厂商，多背这么个负担，怎么活？ 再说科技公司。2020年开始美国限制高端芯片卖中国，表面上看是要卡中国脖子。结果中国市场占了英伟达和高通接近一半收入，一刀切下去，他们的财报 直接掉头。高通2023年在中国的收入比上一年少了将近20%，股价也跟着跌。研发经费一紧，反过来影响他们自己在全球的竞争力。 你有没有发现，美国这几年跟中国硬刚，最后受伤的好像都是自己人？ 我这两天翻了下数据，2018年特朗普发动贸易战的时候，对中国商品加税超过3000亿美元。他当时说要减少逆差，结果到2024年，美国对华逆差依然有3500 亿美元。美商务部的数据摆在那，这笔账怎么算都不像是赢。 所以特朗普2025年再上台，看财政部报告的时候才皱眉。因为他终于发现，这不是在维护超级大国的地位，而是在消耗超级大国的底子。 美 ...

Core Insights - The urgency of the U.S. in Sino-U.S. trade negotiations is highlighted by significant Chinese sales of U.S. Treasury bonds, with China selling approximately $53.7 billion (about 382 billion RMB) in the first seven months of the year [1][2][3] - In July alone, China sold $25.7 billion (approximately 182.9 billion RMB) in U.S. Treasuries, bringing its total holdings down to $730.7 billion, the lowest level since 2019 [1][3] Group 1 - China's large-scale reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings has reached a new low not seen since 2009, indicating a significant shift in international capital flows [2][3] - The reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings by China could exacerbate market fears and potentially trigger a wave of selling, impacting U.S. fiscal stability and the dominance of the dollar [5][6] - The U.S. government is facing budgetary challenges, with a potential government shutdown looming if bipartisan agreement on the budget is not reached by the October 1 deadline [5][6] Group 2 - The reliance of the U.S. on borrowing is acknowledged, with measures such as tariffs and budget cuts being proposed to address fiscal issues, but these may not be sufficient to resolve underlying economic problems [7] - A call for comprehensive domestic reform and a cooperative global approach is suggested as necessary for the U.S. to stabilize its economic situation [7]

Group 1 - China has sold $53.7 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds in the first seven months of this year, with a significant sale of $25.7 billion in July alone, bringing its total holdings to $730.7 billion, the lowest in nearly 16 years [1][3] - The U.S. national debt has exceeded $37 trillion, and the country relies on issuing bonds to finance its operations, which raises concerns about the sustainability of this approach [3][5] - The potential for a sell-off of U.S. Treasuries by major holders like China could lead to increased market panic and a loss of international trust in U.S. debt, threatening the dollar's dominance [3][5] Group 2 - The ongoing budget negotiations between the U.S. Democratic and Republican parties have reached a stalemate, with President Trump warning of a government shutdown if a budget is not passed by October 1 [7] - The U.S. House has passed a temporary funding bill, but it was halted in the Senate, raising concerns about the implications of a government shutdown on domestic stability and law enforcement [7][9] - China's actions in selling U.S. debt reflect a strategic shift in the economic battle with the U.S., moving from trade and technology to financial arenas, indicating a growing confidence in its position [9][10]

这是真正影响全球80亿人生计的大事件！ 美联储时隔9个月终于宣布降息，直降25个基点。此刻，全球资本巨头、华尔街大佬以及无数人的心跳，都因这一数字彻底改变。全球经济、你我手中的存 款、股票、未来的物价、油价，甚至未来世纪的趋势，都因美联储此次降息发生巨变。 这次美联储降息与以往大不相同——美国正因降息爆发近50年来最大规模的"天王山之战"，特朗普对阵鲍威尔，美联储对阵最高领袖。 美联储的独立性正面临有史以来最强大的挑战——特朗普。延续50年霸权的美元货币体系，可能在特朗普的"励精图治"下被推向深渊。 这场降息究竟是好是坏？它会带来什么影响？房子能买了吗？股票会涨吗？手中纸币的购买力会大幅贬值吗？这场降息为何成为美国的"天王山之战"？ 要回答这些问题，需从最基础的问题入手：被传得神乎其神的美联储究竟是什么？ 美联储全称美国联邦储备系统，通俗来说就是美国版的央行，负责发行和管理美元、维护美国金融稳定。它是全球金融体系中为数不多带有半私有化特征的 巨型机构。 不少博主称"美联储被神秘大佬操控，是世界主宰"，但这种说法很片面——经过上百年演化，美联储早已摆脱资本大佬的直接控制。 看美联储的架构便知：其银行实体由12家 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve signifies a strategic shift in the global financial landscape, indicating cracks in the dollar hegemony system [1][5] - The traditional "tide" mechanism of dollar hegemony, which involves aggressive interest rate hikes followed by cuts to acquire undervalued assets, has been disrupted for the first time in decades [3] - The U.S. faced challenges in executing its capital extraction strategy aimed at China, as the latter successfully stabilized its economy through dual circulation strategies and made advancements in key sectors [3][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates without achieving its intended capital extraction reflects a strategic failure, as high interest rates have burdened the U.S. economy and diminished its competitive edge [5] - The acceleration of the global de-dollarization process poses a fundamental threat to the dollar's status as a reserve currency, necessitating a reconsideration of high interest rates [5] - The unconventional rate cut may lead to significant impacts on the U.S. economy, potentially inflating stock market bubbles and increasing the risk of a severe market correction if new technologies do not quickly achieve commercial viability [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has led to unexpected market reactions, including a significant drop in the dollar index to its lowest level since 1995, indicating underlying economic vulnerabilities that could impact the global financial system [2][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices experienced declines, with market participants expressing disappointment over the smaller-than-expected rate cut [4]. - The simultaneous drop in the dollar index, which reached a 30-year low, has created a paradox where a move intended to stimulate the economy has instead led to market turmoil [4][5]. Group 2: Interest Rate Signals and Gold - The Fed's indication of potential further rate cuts in 2025 has prompted a reassessment of long-term dollar interest rates, leading to a surge in gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets [5]. - This shift reflects a growing lack of confidence in the dollar and an increasing preference for gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty [5]. Group 3: Internal Fed Dynamics - The dissenting vote within the Fed regarding the rate cut highlights a deeper trust crisis concerning the dollar's status as the global reserve currency [8]. - Market sentiment is increasingly concerned about the stability of the dollar, with traders expressing fears that the real issue is a loss of confidence rather than the rate cut itself [8]. Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical developments in the Middle East have weakened the "petrodollar" system, as some countries explore alternative currencies for oil transactions, challenging the dollar's dominance [9]. - The interplay between U.S. domestic policies and the Fed's monetary strategies is creating tensions that could further erode confidence in the dollar [9]. Group 5: Chinese Assets and Market Dynamics - The Fed's rate cut and the weakening dollar may temporarily enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets, potentially leading to increased foreign investment in A-shares and bonds [10]. - However, this influx of capital may not reflect long-term confidence in the Chinese economy but rather a search for yield and safety amid global uncertainties [10][14]. Group 6: Future Implications for the Dollar - The dollar's long-term supremacy is under threat from both structural adjustments in the global monetary system and a gradual erosion of trust [13]. - The sustainability of foreign capital inflows into U.S. assets, particularly Treasuries, is uncertain, with potential risks of rapid capital withdrawal if market conditions shift [14][15]. Group 7: Market Sentiment and Future Risks - The market's reaction to the Fed's decision indicates a growing non-rational sentiment, as the decision has not alleviated fears about the broader economic landscape [15]. - The next critical points of concern will revolve around U.S. fiscal deficits, geopolitical tensions, and shifts in reserve currency allocations by major economies [17].

文 | 听云霭 编辑 | 听云霭 2025 年 9 月 18 日凌晨两点，对于全球金融界来说，是一个不寻常的时刻。 美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔准时出现在全球记者的镜头前，他说出了那句让唐纳德・特朗普心心念念的话：下调联邦基准利率25 个基点。 资料参考：2025-09-18证券时报——凌晨！美联储宣布：降息25个基点！鲍威尔重磅发声！ 1.美联储降息 降息这件事，我们之前也见过不少次，但这一次却完全不一样。 今年以来，在美国的经济领域，一直有一个巨大的争论，那就是美联储到底要不要降息。 从 9 月 18 日凌晨开始，全球金融行业的投资大佬们几乎都不约而同地发出了相同的感叹：美联储所谓的尊严，所谓神圣不可侵犯的独立性，在这一刻正式 幻灭。 以鲍威尔为代表的传统老派技术型官员，他们有着理工男的风格，始终坚持不降息。 他们觉得美国现在通胀还没散去，物价还很贵，降息根本没有理由，谁降息谁就是美国老百姓的罪人。 而另一派呢，就是以特朗普为代表的白宫西翼政客群体。 前几天，特朗普骂得都上头了，他说在自己的领导之下，美国经济这么好，随便来个人都能干得比鲍威尔出色。 这俩加起来都 150 多岁的人了，为啥骂得这么不留情面呢？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike has triggered a return of global capital to the U.S., adversely impacting emerging market currencies, particularly the Chinese yuan [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of U.S. Federal Reserve's Actions - The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on December 16, 2015, marking the first increase in nearly a decade, aimed at stabilizing the U.S. economy while making the dollar more attractive [1]. - The interest rate hike led to a significant capital outflow from emerging markets, with international speculators targeting the yuan, which was already under pressure due to declining exports and capital outflows from China [3]. Group 2: Speculative Activities and Market Reactions - Speculators, including notable figures like George Soros, began shorting the yuan, betting on further depreciation, which caused the offshore yuan to drop to over 6.6 against the dollar [3][7]. - The situation escalated as the offshore yuan market became a battleground, with daily trading volumes in Hong Kong reaching thousands of millions of dollars [3]. Group 3: China's Response and Market Stabilization - In response to the speculative attacks, the Chinese government took decisive actions, including raising interbank lending rates dramatically and intervening in the currency market to stabilize the yuan [9][11]. - The People's Bank of China utilized its foreign exchange reserves, which exceeded $3 trillion, to support the yuan, ultimately consuming about $500 billion in reserves to maintain stability [9][11]. Group 4: Long-term Implications and Lessons Learned - The events highlighted the importance of financial stability and the effectiveness of rapid policy responses in mitigating the impact of external shocks [11][13]. - Following the crisis, China strengthened its financial regulations and improved its exchange rate mechanisms to prevent extreme volatility in the future [13].