Core Viewpoint - In 2026, China's economy is expected to focus on balancing growth stabilization and structural adjustment, with a projected GDP growth target of around 5% and continued policy support [1][2][3] Economic Policy and Outlook - The fiscal policy is anticipated to maintain momentum, with public fiscal deficit potentially increasing from 4% to 4.2%, adding approximately 1.7 trillion yuan to the broad deficit scale [2][3] - Monetary policy is expected to diversify, including measures such as central bank bond trading, reserve requirement ratio cuts, and open market operations [2][3] - The divergence between domestic demand and export performance is a key focus, with exports expected to grow by about 6% in 2026 despite external pressures [3][4] Domestic Demand and Supply Dynamics - The ideal policy combination for 2026 should prioritize "increasing demand" while also "optimizing supply," focusing on fiscal expansion and enhancing social security [3][4] - Fixed asset investment is projected to see limited recovery, with infrastructure investment growth remaining stable, while consumer spending is expected to shift towards service consumption [3][4] - Key measures to stimulate service consumption include introducing service consumption vouchers and promoting new urbanization [3][4] Capital Market Trends - The A-share market is expected to continue a "slow bull" trend in 2026, driven by asset replacement, capital market reforms, and economic transformation [5][6] - The market's focus is shifting from sentiment-driven to fundamental verification, with corporate earnings being crucial for valuation increases [6][7] - A clear investment direction is suggested, focusing on four main lines: technology growth (self-sufficiency in computing power, semiconductors, AI applications), PPI improvement, global competitiveness (automotive, electronics, machinery), and domestic demand transformation [7][8]

Core Insights - The Muscat Securities Market (MSX) has achieved its strongest performance in nearly a decade, primarily driven by reforms led by the Oman Investment Authority (OIA) [1][3] - Trading volume has increased fivefold since 2021, reaching approximately $8.45 billion, while market capitalization has grown by 51% to exceed $79 billion [1][3] - The MSX index recently surpassed the 5000-point mark for the first time in eight years, indicating renewed investor confidence and increased market activity [1][3] Market Growth and Reforms - The growth reflects broader efforts by Oman to strengthen its capital markets and attract regional and international investments, aligning with Oman’s Vision 2040 [3] - The transformation began with Royal Decree No. 5/2021, which restructured the Muscat Securities Market into a closed joint-stock company fully owned by OIA [3] - OIA's Vice President, Mulham bin Basheer Al Jarf, emphasized the goal of creating an efficient and investor-friendly exchange to drive economic growth and attract quality investments [3] Performance Metrics - Since 2022, the MSX index has increased by 67%, outperforming major global benchmark indices, including the S&P 500 and MSCI indices for Gulf Cooperation Council countries, emerging markets, and China [3] - This growth is attributed to three strategic initiatives by OIA: enhancing liquidity, diversifying listed products, and broadening the investor base [3] IPO Activity - OIA's IPO plans have played a crucial role in this expansion, with Abraj Energy Services raising approximately $244 million, marking the largest IPO since 2010 [4] - OQ Gas Networks raised $749 million, attracting over $10 billion in subscription orders, showcasing global confidence in the Omani market [4] - Upcoming IPOs include OQ Exploration and Production ($2.5 billion), OQ Biodiesel and Industries ($490 million), and ASYAD Shipping ($333 million), indicating a continued trend of public offerings in Oman [4] Liquidity Initiatives - To maintain growth momentum, OIA launched the Tanmia liquidity fund in 2024, starting with $130 million and projected to grow to $390 million by mid-2025 [5] - The fund is managed by Tanmia, United Securities, and Ubhar Capital, aimed at supporting market stability and enhancing liquidity [5] - MSX's CEO, Haitham Al Salmi, noted that OIA's strategic vision has strengthened MSX through improved governance, transparency, and trading efficiency [5]

Core Viewpoint - The securities sector is expected to enter a prosperous cycle due to ongoing global liquidity easing, improved China-U.S. relations, and strengthened policy expectations [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The implementation of capital market reform policies is anticipated to enhance trading activity and accelerate industry restructuring, leading to a potential increase in both performance and valuation for brokerage firms throughout the year [1] - The new regulations on public fund performance benchmarks are expected to reinforce the constraints on benchmarks, shifting the industry focus from "scale-oriented" to "investor interest-oriented," thereby optimizing the asset management business ecosystem [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - It is projected that the activity level in the capital market will remain high, suggesting a recommendation to focus on the largest and most liquid securities ETF (512880) to seize investment opportunities within the securities sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is entering a significant growth phase starting in 2025, characterized by capital market reforms and economic structural transformation, leading to a "transformation bull" market [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4000 points on October 28, 2025, marking a new high in ten years and indicating the ongoing momentum of the "transformation bull" [1][2] - The underlying logic of the Chinese stock market is shifting, with three core factors that previously led to valuation discounts—concerns over US-China conflicts, declining economic visibility, and asset-liability contraction—now being dismantled and reshaped [2][3] - The transition in the underlying logic suggests that the Chinese stock market is entering a phase of valuation repair and expansion [3] Group 2: Drivers of Growth - The "transformation bull" is driven by three main factors: 1. The decline of risk-free returns, as traditional asset returns are unlikely to return to previous highs due to the end of rapid urbanization and the reduction of high-yield, risk-free financial assets [3] 2. Capital market reforms that enhance the investability of Chinese assets and markets, initiated by the "New National Nine Articles" [3] 3. Increased certainty in China's transformation and development, with new technologies and industries emerging, leading to a potential recovery in economic expectations and asset returns [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The market re-evaluation is broad, with opportunities in both technology and non-technology sectors, shifting from a barbell strategy to a quality strategy [4] - Key recommendations include: 1. Technology growth sectors such as internet, robotics, semiconductors, media, computing, and communication [4] 2. Global expansion of Chinese manufacturing, focusing on sectors like power equipment, consumer electronics, machinery, automotive, and innovative pharmaceuticals [4] 3. Cyclical consumption sectors showing signs of bottoming out, with a focus on non-involution and new materials [4] 4. Continued optimism for financial stocks, driven by economic stabilization and surging asset management demand, recommending brokers, insurance, and banks [4] Group 4: Thematic Recommendations - Emphasis on investing in China's innovative potential across various themes: 1. New technological momentum in AI, robotics, commercial aerospace, and advanced materials [4] 2. New opportunities in domestic consumption, particularly in service consumption and anti-involution trends [4] 3. New energy strategies focusing on new energy storage, hydrogen, and nuclear fusion [4] 4. New patterns in overseas expansion and regional economic development, particularly in innovative pharmaceuticals and western infrastructure [4]

（责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 注：数据来源wind、截至2025.11.3，证券ETF规模为622.34亿，在同类21只产品中排名第一。如提 及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示未来表 现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不构成任 何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相匹配的 产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 西部证券指出，2025年前三季度非银金融行业中，证券板块方面，上市券商三季报业绩符合预期， 经纪和自营业务是业绩修复主要驱动，证监会推动公募基金业绩比较基准改革，规范行业生态，证券行 业景气上行趋势不变，是年内相对低估且业绩同比高增的细分资产。 预计后续资本市场活跃度维持高位，建议关注全市场规模最大、流动性最好 ...

Core Insights - The securities ETF (512880) has seen a net inflow of over 3.8 billion yuan for three consecutive days, with a total scale exceeding 62.2 billion yuan, ranking first among similar products [1][2]. Industry Overview - The securities industry is expected to deepen reforms during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on building a strong financial nation [1]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) plans to introduce a refinancing framework to broaden merger and acquisition channels and promote the integration of listed companies [1]. - Reforms will also include optimizing listing standards to support emerging enterprises and promoting the high-quality development of the Beijing Stock Exchange [1]. Market Outlook - The capital market reforms will emphasize the development of direct financing through equity and bonds, fostering high-quality listed companies, and expanding high-level institutional openness [1]. - The industry is anticipated to benefit from a liquidity-rich environment and policy support, with long-term growth potential for the brokerage sector due to increased market activity and reform dividends [1]. - It is expected that the capital market's activity level will remain high, suggesting a focus on the largest and most liquid securities ETF (512880) to seize investment opportunities in the securities sector [1].

10 月我国制造业 PMI 为 49.0%；资金面持续宽松，债市延续暖势 【内容摘要】10 月 31 日，资金面持续宽松；债市延续暖势；转债市场主要指数集体收涨，转 债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率走势分化，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【习近平出席亚太经合组织第三十二次领导人非正式会议并发表重要讲话】当地时间 10 月 31 日上午，亚太经合组织第三十二次领导人非正式会议第一阶段会议在韩国庆州和白会议中心 举行。国家主席习近平出席会议并发表题为《共建普惠包容的开放型亚太经济》的重要讲话。 习近平在讲话中指出，亚太经合组织成立 30 多年来，引领亚太地区走在全球开放发展前列， 助力亚太成为全球经济最具活力的地区。当前，世界百年变局加速演进，亚太地区发展面临的 不稳定不确定因素增多。越是风高浪急，越要同舟共济。各方要坚守亚太经合组织促进经济增 长、增进人民福祉的初衷，坚持在开放发展中分享机遇、实现共赢，推进普惠包容的经济全球 化，构建亚太共同体。 【李强主持召开国常会，研究深化重点领域改革扩大制度型开放工作】国务院总理李强 10 月 31 日主持召开国务院常务会议 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of developing direct financing through equity and bonds to optimize financing structure and reduce costs, thereby stimulating market vitality and enabling high-quality economic development [1][2] - Experts suggest that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, efforts should be made to increase the proportion of direct financing in social financing, promoting a dual-driven approach of equity and bonds to provide more flexible and diverse financing channels for enterprises [1][2] - The Chinese equity financing market is experiencing a new phase with the development of multi-tiered capital markets like the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, Growth Enterprise Market, and Beijing Stock Exchange, which offer inclusive and efficient financing platforms for various types of enterprises [1][2] Group 2 - There is a call for enhancing the inclusiveness of the capital market by deepening reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and Growth Enterprise Market, focusing on supporting innovative and specialized enterprises through capital market financing [2][3] - The construction of a favorable ecosystem is essential, with an emphasis on improving the professional service capabilities of intermediary institutions and establishing differentiated listing standards and valuation systems for technology enterprises [2][3] - The development of private equity and venture capital funds is encouraged to broaden the sources of patient capital and enhance capital circulation efficiency, particularly focusing on hard technology sectors [2][3] Group 3 - The bond market is recognized as a crucial component of direct financing, with suggestions to improve the multi-tiered bond market system and promote the development of technology and green bonds to better serve the real economy [3][4] - There is a focus on developing a multi-layered bond market framework to enhance market efficiency and safety, as well as to diversify bond products to meet various financing needs [3][4] - The promotion of green bonds is highlighted, with recommendations to establish standards for identifying and certifying green technologies to guide bond funds towards supporting low-carbon technology innovations [4][5] Group 4 - The synergy between equity and bond markets is seen as a way to optimize risk-sharing and financing structures, enabling high-risk startups to secure funding while helping mature companies reduce financing costs [4][5] - The exploration of more technology-themed bonds is anticipated, with efforts to facilitate financing for eligible enterprises through technology bonds to lower the cost of capital for technology innovation [4][5] - The development of real estate investment trusts (REITs) is encouraged, particularly in new infrastructure and technology innovation sectors, to promote asset revitalization and support the digital transformation of traditional infrastructure [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the CSI 300 index by more than 5% over the next six months [38]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continuous advancement of financial power construction as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on enhancing the central bank's role and promoting financial stability and risk management [3][11]. - The Financial Street Forum highlighted key policy signals from major financial regulators, including the People's Bank of China, which will maintain liquidity and support economic recovery [5][14]. - The report notes a significant increase in weekly stock trading volume, with average daily transactions reaching 28.83 trillion yuan, reflecting a 23.7% increase from the previous week [26][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Focus Areas - The 14th Five-Year Plan suggests a deepening of financial reforms, including the enhancement of the central bank's system and the promotion of direct financing through capital market development [11]. - The plan also emphasizes the importance of developing technology finance, green finance, and digital currency, alongside improving financial infrastructure and regulatory frameworks [11][12]. 2. Industry Data - Banking sector: The central bank's open market operations resulted in a net injection of 1.2008 trillion yuan, with SHIBOR rates showing slight increases [22]. - Securities sector: The average daily trading volume of stock funds reached 28.83 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase [26]. - Insurance sector: The yield on ten-year government bonds decreased by 5.32 basis points, indicating a favorable environment for insurance investments [34]. 3. Market Performance - The banking, securities, and insurance indices experienced declines of -2.16%, -0.53%, and -0.89% respectively, while the fintech index rose by 1.92% [10][16]. - Notable performers included Xiamen Bank and Dongxing Securities, which saw increases of 5.54% and 6.03% respectively [18][19].

Core Viewpoints - The capital market is undergoing profound changes in its underlying logic, with a significant increase in the attractiveness of equity asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment, indicating a positive development cycle ahead for the market [2][15] - The brokerage sector is expected to see performance growth potential and high cost-performance value recovery in the new cycle, with current A and H share valuations still at mid-low levels [2][6] Capital Market Building a "New Ecology" - The capital market is experiencing top-down reforms aimed at creating a healthy balance between investment and financing, with the central government elevating its strategic importance [3][18] - Policies such as the "New National Nine Articles" and the "1+N" policy system are being implemented to encourage companies to increase dividends and buybacks, enhance the delisting mechanism, and stimulate mergers and acquisitions [3][19] Incremental Capital Forming a "Positive Cycle" - Long-term funds are steadily flowing into the market, with significant increases in new account openings and private fund registrations, indicating a robust influx of incremental capital [4][36] - The total number of new accounts opened in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 20.15 million in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 50% year-on-year increase [41] Brokerage Business Reaching a "New Level" - The brokerage sector has seen a substantial expansion in market capacity, with a 68% year-on-year increase in net profit for listed brokerages in the first nine months of 2025 [5][16] - The A-share daily trading volume is expected to stabilize at around 2 trillion yuan, supported by strong new account openings and record-high financing balances [5][16] Positive Outlook for Brokerage Performance and High Cost-Performance Opportunities - The long-term upward trend in the capital market remains unchanged, with an expected industry ROE of 7.7% in 2026 under neutral conditions [6][17] - Current valuations for large and small A-share brokerages are still at historical mid-low levels, indicating significant potential for value recovery [6][17] Encouraging Dividends and Buybacks, Moving Towards a Mature Market - The 2024 dividend payout ratio is expected to reach 45%, with buyback amounts hitting 165.9 billion yuan, both setting historical highs [23][24] - The capital market is transitioning towards a more mature structure, with equity financing scales aligning more closely with those of mature markets [24][29] Enhancing Company Quality through Mergers and Acquisitions - The number of significant mergers and acquisitions has surged, with nearly 100 major deals in the first three quarters of 2025, surpassing the total for 2021-2024 [33][34] - Policies are being implemented to facilitate mergers and acquisitions, enhancing the quality of listed companies and supporting the transformation of the real economy [33][34] Long-term Funds Entering the Market, Laying a Foundation for Stability - Long-term funds such as social security and pension funds are steadily growing, providing a solid foundation for the market [37][38] - The total assets of social security funds increased from 1.5 trillion yuan at the end of 2014 to 3.3 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, indicating robust growth [37][38] Optimizing Foreign Capital Systems, Enhancing Allocation Space - The QFII system has undergone significant reforms to enhance the participation of foreign investors, with various measures implemented to simplify cross-border capital flow management [50]