Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **沪镍**: The outer market continues to rebound, with prices standing above the 20 - day moving average. The cost line is firm, but the overall demand boost is limited. In the short - term, pay attention to the impact of anti - involution, and the long - term pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The contract 沪镍2510 will oscillate, with support from the cost line below [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot stainless - steel price remains flat. The cost line is firm, and the inventory continues to decline. Expect consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. In the short - term, anti - involution may affect the black - metal sector again. The contract 不锈钢2511 will oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Overview - **镍**: The price of 沪镍主力 decreased by 230 to 120620 on September 11 compared to the previous day; the price of 伦镍电 increased by 50 to 15220. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 100 to 121450 [12]. - **不锈钢**: The price of 不锈钢主力 decreased by 45 to 12870 on September 11 compared to the previous day. The prices of cold - rolled coils in major regions remained unchanged [12]. 2. Inventory - **镍**: As of September 11, the LME nickel inventory was 223152, an increase of 2058; the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 22111, a decrease of 193. The total inventory increased by 1865 to 245263 [15]. - **不锈钢**: As of September 5, the national stainless - steel inventory was 105.36 million tons, a decrease of 2.94 million tons from the previous period. On September 11, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 97554, a decrease of 734 [20][21]. 3. Price of Raw Materials - **镍矿 and nickel - iron**: The prices of red - soil nickel ore CIF with different grades remained unchanged on September 11 compared to the previous day. The price of high - nickel wet - ton increased by 1 to 953.5 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel wet - ton remained unchanged at 3470 yuan per ton [24]. 4. Production Cost - **不锈钢**: The traditional production cost was 13142, the scrap - steel production cost was 13555, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16760 [26]. 5. Import Cost - **镍**: The imported price was converted to 122520 yuan per ton [29]. 6. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: Expectation of demand boost during "Golden September and Silver October", anti - involution policy, and cost - line support at 120,000 [6]. - **Negative factors**: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production with no new demand growth points, and a year - on - year decline in the installed capacity of ternary batteries [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in housing supply in Shanghai as developers launch new projects following the implementation of the "8·25 new policy," which has stimulated housing demand, particularly in areas outside the outer ring road [1][5][6] - In September, a total of 11 new projects with 1,099 housing units were approved, with most located outside the outer ring, reflecting a strategic shift in the market dynamics post-policy [1][5] - The luxury housing market remains robust, with record-high prices being set, such as the recent listing in Huangpu District at 32.68 million yuan per square meter, indicating strong demand in this segment [1][5] Group 2 - The first batch of pre-sale permits in September covered a total area of 139,000 square meters, valued at approximately 8.31 billion yuan, indicating a strong market response from developers [2][5] - Various promotional activities, such as "Golden Autumn New House Festival," are being launched by local enterprises to attract buyers, showcasing a competitive market environment [2][3] - The average transaction price for new homes remains high, with the overall market expected to stabilize and recover gradually due to the positive effects of recent policies [4][6] Group 3 - Recent statistics show that from September 1 to 7, new residential supply in Shanghai reached 51,600 square meters, with a transaction volume of 106,700 square meters, reflecting a healthy market activity [5][6] - The second-hand housing market has also seen an increase in transactions, with over 5,000 units sold since the beginning of September, indicating a positive trend following the new policy [5][6] - Experts predict that the real estate market in Shanghai will gradually stabilize and improve, driven by the ongoing effects of the "Six Policies" and the traditional sales peak season [6][7]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年9月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC9月报：25/26年度产量2550万吨，消费2550万吨。USDA8月报：25/26年度产 量2539.2万吨，消费2568.8万吨，期末库存1609.3万吨。海关：8月纺织品服装出口265.4亿 美元，同比下降5%。7月份我国棉花进口5万吨，同比减少73.2%；棉纱进口11万吨，同比增加 15.38%。农村部8月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存823万 吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15249，基差1414（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 ...

在谨慎的市场氛围下，聚烯烃下游需求在"金九银十"旺季是否还有增长机会？ "聚烯烃装置9月检修率较高，且受上半年市场行情影响，中下游企业在旺季前库存偏低、备货不多，这 为需求短期反弹提供了空间。"钱程表示，但是，"旺季不旺"已逐渐成为近年来聚烯烃行业的常态，旺 季的"热度"可能会打折扣。 "金九银十"本是大宗商品市场期待的消费旺季，然而，今年聚烯烃下游却"冷暖不一"，市场信心受到考 验。 聚烯烃下游表现明显分化。嘉悦物产集团有限公司高级业务总监钱程告诉期货日报记者，家电等行业受 补贴政策退坡影响，需求增长乏力；管材行业则长期处于低位运行，复苏动力不足。不过，并非所有下 游环节都"一片冷清"。据钱程介绍，包装膜行业有所回暖，订单量稳步增长，开工率也随之提升；农业 膜行业虽然启动时间与往年相比偏晚，但依然扛起了旺季"主力军"的大旗，在下游市场中发挥了重要的 支撑作用。 "虽然市场期待'金九银十'引领需求复苏，但聚烯烃供应持续增长，中期来看供应压力依然较大。"广发 期货能化首席分析师张晓珍表示，即便当下处于需求旺季，从业者依然担心供应过剩会进一步冲击市 场，影响产品价格和企业利润水平。 "今年聚烯烃新项目大量投产，实 ...

Group 1 - The traditional sales peak season "Golden September and Silver October" has arrived, with developers actively preparing for new project launches and sales events [1][4] - In Shanghai, the first batch of pre-sale permits in September has a total supply area of 139,000 square meters and a total value of approximately 8.31 billion yuan, covering multiple hot areas [1][6] - In Beijing, the new housing policy has led to a noticeable increase in sales, particularly among clients who were previously hesitant, with some projects seeing sales volumes double [2][4] Group 2 - In Chengdu, over 1,500 new homes are expected to enter the market in September, with several notable projects being launched [7][8] - The luxury market in Shanghai remains strong, with the highest recorded new home price reaching 326,800 yuan per square meter [4][6] - In Shenzhen, the relaxation of purchase restrictions has significantly increased both the number of property viewings and sales, with a reported 30% increase in viewings and a 60% increase in sales volume following the new policy [9][10]

Core Insights - The traditional sales peak season "Golden September and Silver October" has arrived, with developers actively preparing for increased sales opportunities [2][5][12] - New housing policies have positively impacted market sentiment, leading to increased buyer interest and sales in various cities [4][6][12] Group 1: Market Activity - In Shanghai, the first batch of pre-sale permits in September totaled 139,000 square meters with a total value of approximately 8.31 billion yuan, covering multiple hot districts [2][9] - In Beijing, new housing policy implementation has resulted in a three-week consecutive increase in new home registrations, indicating a positive market response [4][5] - In Shenzhen, the first weekend after the new policy saw a 48% increase in property visits and a 60% increase in sales volume [12] Group 2: Developer Strategies - Developers are leveraging the "Golden September and Silver October" period to launch promotional campaigns, such as Vanke's "2025 Golden Autumn Quality Housing Festival" [11] - In Shanghai, the housing authority's direct promotion of new projects has led to increased buyer engagement, particularly in areas outside the city center [6][9] - In Beijing, developers are focusing on projects located in the outer ring, where the new policies have opened up opportunities for previously hesitant buyers [5][12] Group 3: Regional Highlights - Chengdu is expecting over 1,500 new homes to enter the market in September, with several notable projects set to launch [10][11] - In Shenzhen, the easing of purchase restrictions has allowed previously excluded buyers to enter the market, significantly boosting both viewings and sales [12] - The luxury market in Shanghai remains robust, with the Jinling Huating project setting a new record for new home prices at 326,800 yuan per square meter [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen's new real estate policy, implemented on September 5, aims to stimulate the housing market during the traditional peak sales season of "Golden September and Silver October" by relaxing purchase restrictions, easing corporate buying, and optimizing credit conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The new policy includes four main adjustments to purchase restrictions: 1. Residents with Shenzhen household registration or proof of tax and social security payments for one year can now purchase in a reduced area [1]. 2. Non-residents can buy two homes in non-restricted areas without proof of tax and social security payments [1]. 3. In Yantian District and Dapeng New District, there are no purchase qualification checks [1]. 4. Single individuals are treated as families for purchasing, allowing an additional purchase [1]. - Credit optimization means that housing loan interest rates will no longer differentiate between first and second homes, allowing financial institutions to set rates based on market conditions [1]. Group 2: Market Response - The first weekend after the policy implementation saw a significant increase in both property viewings and sales, with some projects reporting a 30% increase in viewings and 16 units sold in one weekend [2][4]. - However, the initial surge in activity did not sustain into the following weekdays, indicating a potential short-term spike rather than a long-term trend [2][3]. Group 3: Pricing and Discounts - Many projects continue to offer discounts, with prices ranging from 86% to 93% of the listed price, indicating ongoing competitive pricing strategies [3][4]. - For example, a 92.54 square meter unit at a project was originally priced at approximately 5.03 million yuan but was discounted to about 4.68 million yuan, translating to around 50,600 yuan per square meter [3]. Group 4: Secondary Market Trends - The secondary housing market in Shenzhen is experiencing a "volume increase and price stability" trend, with a notable rise in viewings by about 12% following the new policy [5][6]. - The number of second-hand homes with price increases reached 163, while those with price reductions exceeded 1,000, indicating a mixed market response [5][6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the new policy is a supplement to last year's measures and aims to boost market confidence during the peak sales season, with expectations of increased transactions in September [6][7]. - However, the sustainability of this recovery remains uncertain, as developers are cautious and primarily focused on maintaining cash flow through sales rather than increasing prices [7].

Core Insights - The launch event for the new residential project "Zijing Chenyuan" by China State Construction Intelligent Land (CSCI) indicates the company's strong commitment to the project [1] - The Beijing real estate market is experiencing a boost in sales due to new policies and the traditional peak sales season of "Golden September and Silver October" [3][5] - The new policy allows eligible families to purchase unlimited properties outside the Fifth Ring Road, which has encouraged previously hesitant buyers to enter the market [3][5] Market Response - Over 1,200 groups visited the marketing center of Zijing Chenyuan on its opening day, reflecting strong interest [3] - Following the implementation of the new policy on August 9, the new housing contract volume in Beijing has shown a "three consecutive increases" trend, with new residential contracts reaching 2,824 units in August, a 2.3% month-on-month increase [5] - The second-hand housing market also saw a rise, with 13,119 contracts signed, marking a 4.1% month-on-month increase [5] Developer Strategies - Real estate developers are actively ramping up marketing efforts to capitalize on the policy window, with various promotional activities and project launches taking place [6][7] - Developers are focusing on enhancing project amenities, such as gardens and clubhouses, to attract buyers, with some projects aiming to match high-end properties in terms of quality [9] - The marketing strategies are increasingly tailored to meet the demands of discerning buyers, particularly those looking for improved living conditions [8][9] Sales Trends - There is a noticeable acceleration in sales for new homes outside the Fifth Ring Road, while interest in properties within the Fifth Ring Road has also increased [7] - The new policy has allowed some families to qualify for purchasing properties within the Fifth Ring Road, leading to a surge in viewings and potential sales [7] - Developers are optimistic about the upcoming sales season, with some reporting doubled sales volumes shortly after the policy announcement [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international gold prices has attracted significant market attention, coinciding with the traditional consumption peak season and an increase in wedding-related purchases, leading to a booming gold consumption market [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of September 11, the international spot gold price reached $3644.29 per ounce, with domestic prices at 834.68 yuan per gram, marking an increase of nearly $1000 per ounce this year [3]. - Major jewelry brands have adjusted their pricing in response to rising gold prices, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang increasing their prices by approximately 5 yuan per gram [3]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The demand for gold jewelry remains strong among couples preparing for weddings, with many opting to purchase essential items like the "three golds" and "five golds" despite high prices [5][6]. - In Shenzhen's Shui Bei area, the daily gold buyback volume is reported to be three times the sales volume, indicating a trend where customers are more inclined to sell gold due to rising prices [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The increase in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which enhance gold's appeal as an asset [7][8]. - Global central banks are projected to purchase a record amount of gold, with 2024 expected to see net purchases of 1136 tons, indicating strong institutional demand [8].

导语：今年的"金九银十"尤其不一样，这个向来传统的销售旺季，由于叠加了楼市新政和有关新规，各 地的开发商们都铆足了劲。每经记者实地走访北京、上海、深圳、成都四个热点城市重点项目，带来最 新报道。 ...