一个，是中证Reits ，今天大涨超1%，明显和大盘背离，且1个点以上的涨幅，即使在连续上涨的 二季度，也仅出现过1天； 另一个，是银行股这边 ，继续大涨，港股这边迎来下半年首个交易日，港股银行大涨超2.2%，在 所有恒生行业指数中排第一，且建行领涨接近3%，而中行在四大行里垫底，"仅"上涨1.5%左右， 这背后的逻辑，我们昨天都已经聊过，并提前做出了预测分析，应该说，还是和实际情况相符 的。 今天市场有两块值得关注的亮点。 第一个亮点，依然是"季末调表，兑现利润"的后遗症 ，我们前两天聊的，节前异常下跌的两块资 产： 今天，财联社在 《真相调查， 银行股被险资配到上限了？ 》，也引用了咱们最近的观点，我在 本文的下半部分，会借助 泰康保险大佬 的公开观点，继续阐述一下，为什么说， 很多从业者忽 视了"前所未有的低利率"、"保险资产负债倒挂的紧迫性倒逼监管政策进入宽松周期"的长期性和 重要性。 另外，这回季末，还有一个事，大家关注的比较多，那就是 A500ETF 的冲量，华泰柏瑞最猛， 直接干破了200亿，弯道超车，成为A500的扛把子，堪称花小钱、办大事，季末营销的经典案 例，而嘉实等其他几家，季末也有发力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates significant growth in its annual performance driven by advancements in AI servers, consumer electronics, and accelerated domestic substitution in emerging fields [2][3]. Group 1: Annual Performance Growth - The primary sources of growth are identified as AI servers, consumer electronics, and AIoT, with a focus on enhancing distribution, application innovation, and supply chain services [2]. - The storage business is projected to generate revenue of 20.685 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 134.32%, primarily serving consumer terminals and AI servers [3]. Group 2: Processor Product Lines - The company has long-term partnerships with well-known chip brands for its authorized processor products, including GPU, CPU, and MCU, collaborating with companies such as AMD, NXP, and NVIDIA [4]. Group 3: Inventory Management - As of the first quarter of 2025, the company's inventory stands at 7.904 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 26.09%, attributed to seizing opportunities in the demand for new energy vehicles and AI computing [5]. Group 4: Future Product Line Strategy - The company has a rich resource of authorized upstream product lines, representing 11 of the top 20 domestic semiconductor brands and 9 of the top 20 global semiconductor brands. In 2024, it plans to introduce product lines in smart driving, passive components, and storage, while optimizing its product lines towards higher quality offerings, particularly in AI, automotive electronics, and industrial control applications [6].

Macro Analysis - The current macro variables affecting the market are internal demand recovery, policy implementation effects, and external environment changes[3] - The easing of US-China tariff negotiations helps alleviate pressure on the fundamentals and market risk appetite, but the relationship remains competitive[3] - The economy is undergoing an L-shaped recovery, with manageable short-term pressures on foreign trade and employment, while low inflation remains a core challenge[3] Policy Insights - The policy focus is on the effectiveness of existing policies and the introduction of incremental reserve tools, with a dynamic calibration approach expected[3] - The emphasis is on promoting the effectiveness of existing policies, particularly concerning employment and systemic risks, while external shocks remain uncertain[3] Investment Strategy - A strategic bullish outlook on Hong Kong stocks is recommended, as de-dollarization benefits liquidity-sensitive stocks[3] - A "barbell" asset allocation strategy is suggested, focusing on resilient dividend assets in finance, resources, and public utilities, while technology remains a key theme[3] Company Highlights - Zhuoyue New Energy (688196.SH) is a pioneer in biodiesel production, with a production capacity of 500,000 tons and a focus on raw material substitution and trade breakthroughs[9] - Yipuli (002096.SZ) achieved revenue of 8.546 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 713 million yuan, driven by cost control and increased procurement efforts[14] - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) expects copper production to reach 1.15 million tons in 2025, with significant growth targets set for 2028[21] Risk Considerations - Risks include potential policy support falling short of expectations, execution delays, and slower-than-expected economic recovery[5] - For Zhuoyue New Energy, risks involve policy advancement not meeting expectations and significant fluctuations in raw material prices[12]

Core Viewpoint - The prices of high-end fruits such as lychee, durian, and cherries have plummeted, with some experiencing price drops exceeding 70% over the past year, and further declines are expected in the future [1]. Price Decline of Specific Fruits - Lychee prices have drastically fallen, with some varieties like "Feizi Xiao" dropping to 2-4 yuan per kilogram from last year's peak of 24 yuan, and even e-commerce platforms offering promotions at 9.9 yuan for three kilograms [2]. - Durian prices have also seen a significant drop, with wholesale prices falling from 35 yuan per jin to 22.4 yuan within a month, a decrease of over one-third [2]. - The price of "Sunshine Rose" grapes has plummeted from 500 yuan per jin a decade ago to just 3 yuan per jin, indicating a dramatic decline in demand [3]. - Cherry prices have decreased from over 100 yuan per jin to around 10-20 yuan, marking the end of their "golden era" in the Chinese market [3]. - Blueberry prices have similarly dropped from over 100 yuan per unit to around 10 yuan per box [4]. Reasons for Price Collapse - The primary reason for the price collapse is a significant increase in production capacity, with lychee production expected to double this year to 3.45 million tons, leading to oversupply [5]. - The planting area for high-end fruits like "Sunshine Rose" grapes has expanded over 50 times in less than a decade, resulting in a surge in production [5]. - Technological advancements in agriculture have enabled local cultivation of blueberries, cherries, and durians, reducing reliance on imports and contributing to increased supply [5][6]. - The logistics sector has improved significantly, with cold chain technology reducing transportation losses from 30% to 10%, and faster shipping methods lowering costs and spoilage [7]. - Consumer behavior has shifted towards more rational spending, with younger generations prioritizing value over brand prestige, leading to increased demand for affordable fruit options [7]. Market Dynamics - E-commerce subsidies and supermarket promotions have accelerated the "de-aristocratization" of high-end fruits, making them more accessible to consumers [8]. - The ongoing trend of domestic production and technological advancements suggests that prices for these fruits may continue to decline in the future [8].

2025 年 07 月 02 日 证券研究报告 | 财富生态周报 ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报 2025/7/2 分析师：卫以诺 分析师登记编码：S0890518120001 电话：021-20321014 邮箱：weiyinuo@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890522110001 电话：021-20321297 邮箱：chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 销售服务电话： 021-20515355 2025/6/24》2025-06-24 2、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/6/18》2025-06-18 3、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/6/10》2025-06-10 4、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/6/3》2025-06-03 5、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/5/27》2025-05-27 投资要点 分析师：程秉哲 ◆网格交易策略概述：简单来说，"网格交易"本质上是一种高抛低吸的交易 策略。但与依赖判断长期走势的趋势交易不同，网格交易是一种基于价格波动 的策略，它不预测市场的具体走势，而是利用价格在一 ...

编号：2025-07 | 投资者关系活动类别 | 特定对象调研 ☐分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | | ☐媒体采访 ☐业绩说明会 | | | ☐新闻发布会 ☐路演活动 | | | ☐现场参观 | | | ☐其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 活动参与人员 | 泰康基金 卞学清 | | 时间 | 2025年7月2日14:30-15:30 | | 地点 | 公司会议室 | | 形式 | 线下 | | 上市公司接待人员姓名 | 董事会秘书 刘同刚 | | | 证券事务专员 邓丽婷 | | 交流内容及具体问答记录 | 公司与投资者就其关注的问题进行了交流，主要内容包括： 1、公司认为全年业绩增长的空间是什么？ | | | 目前增长主要来源为AI服务器、消费电子、AIoT等新兴领域 | | | 的技术迭代与国产替代加速。公司将聚焦分销主业，加强应用创 | | | 新及生态服务、供应链服务和产业数据服务等能力建设，把握行 | | | 业发展新机遇。 | | | 2、公司存储主要应用于哪些领域？ | | | 公司2024年授权分销业务中，存储器业务收入206.85亿元，同 | | | 比增长134.32 ...

Macro Analysis - The current market is influenced by three main macro variables: domestic demand recovery, policy implementation effects, and external environment changes[9] - The easing of US-China tariff negotiations helps alleviate market risk appetite pressures, but the long-term relationship remains competitive[9] - The economy is undergoing an L-shaped recovery, with manageable short-term pressures on foreign trade and employment, while low inflation remains a core challenge[9] Investment Recommendations - Strategic focus on Hong Kong stocks is advised, as de-dollarization benefits liquidity-sensitive markets[10] - A-shares are expected to experience high volatility, emphasizing the need to capture structural opportunities[10] - Suggested asset allocation includes resilient dividend assets in finance, resource sectors, and public utilities, with technology remaining a key focus[10] Company Highlights - Excellence New Energy (688196.SH) is a leader in biodiesel production, with a capacity of approximately 500,000 tons and a focus on raw material substitution[12] - Yipuli (002096.SZ) achieved revenue of 8.546 billion yuan in 2024, a 1.4% increase, with net profit rising by 12.49% to 713 million yuan[17] - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) expects copper production to reach 1.15 million tons in 2025, with gold production projected at 85 tons[24] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy support falling short of expectations, execution delays, and slower-than-expected economic recovery[5] - For Excellence New Energy, risks involve trade barriers and raw material price fluctuations impacting profitability[16] - For Yipuli, risks include raw material price volatility and project execution delays affecting revenue growth[21]

公司报告 | 首次覆盖报告 亚翔集成（603929） 证券研究报告 AI 驱动半导体资本开支景气延续，看好洁净室龙头出海&大订单持续兑现 深耕洁净室领域多年，布局新加坡大订单持续落地 亚翔集成作为一站式洁净室系统集成工程服务的专业提供商，具备"工程 施工设计+采购+施工+维护"EPCO 的能力，背靠母公司中国台湾亚翔， 深耕 IC 产业链、云计算中心和生化制药等领域，聚焦高附加值的大型洁净 室及机电工程项目，同时公司积极拓展新加坡、越南等海外市场，2024 年 公司累计新签订单为 36.08 亿元，受高基数影响同比下滑 49.60%。公司 4 月份公告中标新加坡世界先进 31.6 亿大订单，有望受益于东南亚地区半导 体产业链转移，我们认为公司仍有较好的订单预期。我们预计公司 25-27 年归母净利润为 4.78、6.34、7.12 亿，估值显著低于同行可比公司，认可 给予公司 2025 年 20 倍 PE，对应目标价 44.83 元，首次覆盖给予"买入" 评级。 AI 驱动下芯片需求持续增长，晶圆厂建设保持较高景气 AI 需求激增带动半导体产业需求，根据 Gartner 预测，2025 年和 2026 年 半 ...

科创板迎来AI芯片上市潮的关键时刻。6月30日晚间，国内GPU领域两大创业公司摩尔线程与沐曦集成 同时披露招股说明书，正式向科创板发起冲刺。其中，因旗下业务与英伟达高度重合，摩尔线程被市场 冠以中国版英伟达的称号，此次该公司拟募集资金80亿元，保荐机构为中信证券。 在AI算力需求爆发与美国芯片管制的双重刺激下，国产GPU站上了前所未有的风口。然而，行业光环 下的财务数据却不容乐观：摩尔线程2022-2024年累计亏损超50亿元。尽管"前辈"寒武纪上市曾点燃市 场热情，但在资本日趋理性的当下，摩尔线程能否重新激发市场热情还未可知。 另一方面，摩尔线程的多名高管均出自英伟达：其中，摩尔线程创始人、董事长、总经理张建中，曾于 2006年4月至2020年9月任英伟达全球副总裁、大中华区总经理；摩尔线程联合创始人、职工董事周苑曾 在2004年10月至2020年9月于英伟达任市场生态高级总监；摩尔线程联合创始人、董事、副总经理张钰 勃曾于2013年10月至2017年11月在英伟达任GPU架构师。 过去几年，人工智能在资本市场迎来吸金热潮，因此在开启上市流程之前，摩尔线程其实已经完成多轮 融资。比较瞩目的是，该公司股东众多 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨建材 [Table_Title] AI 特种玻纤升级加速，关注高阶产品放量 ——建材周专题 2025W25 报告要点 [Table_Summary] AI 特种玻纤升级加速，关注高阶产品放量 基本面：水泥价格延续下跌，玻璃库存环比下降 推荐国产替代链和非洲链，存量龙头为全年主线 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 范超 张佩 李金宝 李浩 董超 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490518080002 SAC：S0490516040002 SAC：S0490520080026 SAC：S0490523030002 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BVZ972 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title AI 特种玻纤升级加速，关注高阶产品放量 2] ——建材周专题 2025W25 [Table_Summary2] AI 特种玻纤布升级加速，关注高阶产品放量 AI 特种玻纤布升级加速。低介电电子布（一代 Low-Dk/二代 Low-Dk/石英纤维布）用在 PCB， 下游是 ...