西南证券主要观点如下： 回顾2025年 2025年初截至12月31日，申万家电指数指数上涨9.1%，在申万行业中涨幅排名第24。 西南证券发布研报称，整体而言，2026年在高基数及需求提前消化的大背景下，家电行业仍将处于恢复 期，但也迎来了"国补"和"关税"两大事件影响下的新常态。该行认为中国家电行业作为毫无争议的世界 第一，其中，优秀的公司及蕴含的新赛道都仍存长期投资价值。建议关注主线一：逆境方显龙头本色， 关注龙头公司高性价比，高分红。主线二：关注出海赛道。主线三：消费升级仍是长久趋势，体验提升 +创新品类值得关注 整体而言，2026年在高基数及需求提前消化的大背景下，家电行业仍将处于恢复期，但也迎来了"国 补"和"关税"两大事件影响下的新常态。该行认为中国家电行业作为毫无争议的世界第一，其中，优秀 的公司及蕴含的新赛道都仍存长期投资价值。 主线一：逆境方显龙头本色，关注龙头公司高性价比，高分红 基本面来看，从2025年下半年来看，国补收紧，边际效果递减已经定局。国内需求的提前透支，以及地 产及消费习惯变化导致的需求减少，该行认为内销目前需要一个较长的恢复期，因此，一方面外销占比 更高的个股受到的边际影响 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the transformative impact of the "National Subsidy" policy on consumer behavior and market dynamics, shifting from traditional consumption to a more experience-driven and value-oriented approach [1][2][3] - The "National Subsidy" policy targets major consumer sectors such as automobiles and home appliances, while also extending to new markets like smart wearables and products for the elderly, facilitating access to high-quality goods at more affordable prices [2] - The policy is designed to create a virtuous cycle where demand drives supply and vice versa, encouraging companies to innovate in green technology and smart products while making it easier for consumers to upgrade their goods [2][3] Group 2 - The integration of various sectors such as culture, tourism, sports, and technology is reshaping the consumer landscape, leading to a more immersive and comprehensive shopping experience [3] - The "National Subsidy" policy is seen as a catalyst for unlocking consumer potential, which in turn stimulates economic growth by enhancing the domestic circulation of goods and services [3] - The combination of policy incentives and market innovations is expected to ignite a significant surge in consumer activity, contributing to high-quality economic development in China [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the transformative impact of the "National Subsidy" policy on consumer behavior and market dynamics, shifting from traditional consumption to a more experience-driven and value-oriented approach [1][2][3] - The "National Subsidy" policy targets major consumer sectors such as automobiles and home appliances, while also extending to new markets like smart wearables and products for the elderly, facilitating access to high-quality goods at more affordable prices [2] - The policy is designed to create a virtuous cycle where demand drives supply and vice versa, encouraging companies to innovate in green technology and smart products while making it easier for consumers to upgrade their goods [2][3] Group 2 - The integration of various sectors, such as "consumption + culture and tourism" and "consumption + technology," is reshaping the consumer landscape, allowing for deeper cultural experiences and making smart home devices more accessible [3] - The "National Subsidy" policy is seen as a catalyst for unlocking consumer potential, which in turn stimulates economic growth by connecting production, distribution, and consumption [3] - The combination of policy incentives and market innovations is expected to ignite a significant surge in consumer activity, contributing to high-quality economic development in China [3]

Core Insights - The home appliance industry is expected to remain in a recovery phase in 2026 due to high base effects and pre-consumed demand, but it also faces a new normal influenced by national subsidies and tariff policies [7][9] - The domestic demand is anticipated to experience a turning point in the second half of 2026, despite being impacted by earlier demand exhaustion [6][9] - Export-oriented appliance companies are likely to see valuation recovery and improved performance due to low base effects from 2025 [6][9] Review of 2025 - The Shenyin Wanguo Home Appliance Index rose by 9.1% in 2025, ranking 24th among all industries, but underperformed the broader market in the second half due to declining domestic subsidies and uncertainties in export tariffs [4][17] - The domestic demand for home appliances is expected to require a longer recovery period due to the exhaustion of demand and changes in consumer habits [4][6] - The home appliance industry faced a weak overall fundamental performance in the second half of 2025, with leading white goods companies showing dividend attributes but lacking investor interest due to market competition and rising costs [4][6] Outlook for 2026 - The supply side of the home appliance industry is expected to remain stable, but increased overseas production capacity may lead to domestic overcapacity under weak demand assumptions [6][9] - Cost pressures are anticipated to gradually increase in 2026, particularly for leading companies that possess better pricing power [6][9] - The home appliance industry is projected to experience a consolidation of market structure, with weaker brands and OEMs likely to exit the market [6][9] Investment Themes - Focus on leading companies with high dividend yields and strong fundamentals, as they are better positioned to withstand industry challenges [9] - Attention to companies expanding overseas, as they adapt to tariff changes and enhance their global manufacturing and R&D capabilities [11] - Consideration of consumer upgrades and innovative product categories, as the demand for home appliances continues to evolve [13] Key Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring leading home appliance companies that demonstrate high cost-performance ratios and increasing dividend rates, especially as public funds show a growing preference for high-dividend sectors [9] - Emphasis on the potential of export-oriented companies that are becoming desensitized to tariff impacts and are expected to benefit from improved operational efficiencies [11] - Recognition of the long-term trend of consumer upgrades, with a focus on innovative categories that enhance lifestyle quality [13]

Overall Summary - The offline retail situation for Q4 2025 shows a narrowing decline in sales, order numbers, and average order spending compared to the previous year, indicating a potential stabilization in the retail sector [4][5][8] - The overall sales decline for Q4 2025 is 4.84%, marking the best performance of the year, with order numbers and average spending also showing declines of less than 3% [4][5] - Consumer confidence has shown a recovery trend since mid-2025, with the index surpassing 90 for the first time in nearly two years, suggesting positive future expectations [8] Retail Performance Overview - The analysis covers four major categories: food, beverages, alcohol, and daily chemicals, using a continuous store model to assess quarterly performance [2] - Q4 2025's performance is significantly better than previous quarters, providing some optimism for 2026 [5] Price Levels - The WPI (Wholesale Price Index) for food, beverages, and daily chemicals remains below 100, indicating ongoing price pressure [9][11] - In Q4 2025, the price indices for these categories are between 98 and 99, reflecting a downward trend in price levels compared to the previous year [11] Key Category Insights - In the food category, the top three segments with increased market share are hot pot ingredients, pure milk, and frozen sausages, while snacks like puffed foods and candies have seen declines [14][17] - The beverage category shows a decline in dairy drinks but growth in ready-to-drink juices and functional beverages, driven by health trends [20][23] Order and Spending Analysis - In Q4 2025, the food category saw growth in sales and order numbers for frozen sausages, hot pot ingredients, and frozen prepared foods, with frozen sausages experiencing nearly 30% growth [27][28] - Conversely, self-heating foods and several snack categories continue to decline significantly, with instant noodles also showing a notable drop of 7% to 10% [28][29] SKU and New Product Trends - The top SKUs in the food category for Q4 2025 include frozen sausages and various nut products, indicating a shift towards healthier and premium offerings [52] - In the beverage category, ready-to-drink coffee and plant-based drinks are gaining traction, with new product launches reflecting market trends towards health and functionality [55][56]

Core Insights - The geographical landscape of China's consumer market is shifting from traditional first-tier cities to emerging urban areas, indicating a significant change in consumption growth dynamics and brand competition [1][7] Group 1: Consumption Trends - The "Box District Housing Index" shows that cities like Shijiazhuang, Xuzhou, and Linyi have indices of 171, 141, and 127 respectively, significantly above the national average of 100, highlighting the rising consumption power in these emerging cities [1] - Retail brands such as Xixifu Bookstore and outdoor brand Salomon are expanding into emerging markets, confirming the trend of a silent yet profound geographical migration in consumption [1] - Consumers in emerging cities are increasingly seeking quality and unique experiences, aligning their demands with those of consumers in first-tier cities [3][4] Group 2: Industrial Upgrades - Industrial upgrades are driving the transformation of cities and reshaping the consumption base, with cities like Yibin becoming key players in the power battery industry, achieving over 100 billion in output value in both 2023 and 2024 [2] - Hefei has emerged as a leader in the new energy vehicle sector, producing 1.097 million vehicles from January to October 2025, and hosting numerous core component enterprises, establishing a robust industrial cluster [2] Group 3: Consumer Behavior Changes - The influx of skilled workers and rising disposable incomes in emerging cities are creating a new consumer demographic with unique spending power, leading to increased consumption [3] - Data shows that 55.7% of non-first-tier cities have GDP growth rates exceeding the national average, with 65.2% of third-tier cities and 60.7% of fourth-tier cities also outperforming the national growth rate [3] Group 4: Retail Innovations - Brands like Hema are transforming traditional shopping experiences into multi-functional destinations that combine dining, socializing, and shopping, thus enhancing consumer engagement [6] - Hema's new stores have seen immediate success, with significant sales figures reported on opening days, indicating strong market demand and consumer interest [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - The shift in consumption dynamics suggests that retail brands capable of maintaining competitiveness in high-tier cities while successfully penetrating emerging markets will likely emerge as the biggest winners [7][8] - The evolving consumer landscape in emerging cities is characterized by a growing demand for quality products and experiences, which is reshaping the retail industry [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the expected deepening development of China's consumer market in 2026, driven by macroeconomic improvements and targeted policies that emphasize quality and efficiency [1][2][8] - The "old-for-new" policy has shown significant results in 2025, with over 2.6 trillion yuan in sales benefiting more than 360 million consumers, indicating a successful expansion of consumption scale and structural upgrades [2][3] - The 2026 consumption policies will focus on "precise efforts and quality enhancement," optimizing support scope, subsidy standards, and implementation mechanisms to ensure effective resource allocation [2][3] Group 2 - The county-level market is emerging as a new growth engine for consumption, with the instant retail sector expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan in 2026, driven by improved digital infrastructure and consumption upgrades [4][5] - Well-known brands in the hotel, restaurant, and retail sectors are accelerating their entry into county markets, indicating a positive outlook for county-level consumption [5] - New consumption hotspots are reshaping the market, with seasonal tourism and emotional consumption gaining traction, reflecting profound changes in consumer demand and driving domestic demand and industrial innovation [6][7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The "New Year Economy" is gaining momentum across China, driven by strong consumer demand and a focus on quality upgrades in products and services [1] Group 1: Market Activity - Various markets across China are experiencing high consumer traffic and transaction volumes, such as over 1.2 million tons of daily transactions in Changsha and significant growth in Fuzhou's fruit market [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is promoting local specialties and quality agricultural products through initiatives like brand directories and live-streaming sales [1] Group 2: Quality Upgrade - Consumers are increasingly seeking high-quality products for the New Year, indicating a shift from merely having goods to desiring premium offerings [1] - Local producers are encouraged to enhance the quality of agricultural products and crafts, tapping into regional resources to meet consumer demands [1] Group 3: Scene Innovation - Innovative consumer experiences are being developed, such as transforming traditional markets into clean, spacious venues and integrating cultural performances with dining experiences [1] - The focus is on creating immersive shopping experiences that combine local culture and modern retail, enhancing consumer engagement [1] Group 4: Long-term Empowerment - The strong performance of the "New Year Economy" is seen as a foundation for sustained economic growth throughout the year, emphasizing the role of consumption as a key driver [1] - Initiatives like issuing consumption vouchers and creating food tourism routes are being implemented to stimulate long-term consumer activity [1] - Establishing mechanisms to connect holiday shopping with everyday consumption is crucial for maintaining momentum in the market [1]

Group 1: Consumption and Trade Development - In 2026, China will implement special actions to boost consumption, promote trade innovation, and gradually expand the autonomous opening of the service sector [1][5] - The focus will be on cultivating new growth points in service consumption, optimizing the old-for-new consumption policy, and enhancing the international consumption environment [1] - The development of digital, green, and health consumption will be prioritized to stimulate consumption in lower-tier markets [1] Group 2: Foreign Investment and Trade Integration - China aims to create new advantages in attracting foreign investment and will expand the autonomous opening of the service sector [8] - The country will optimize and upgrade goods trade, significantly develop service trade, and encourage service exports [5] - Innovations in digital and green trade will be promoted to facilitate the integration of trade and investment [5] Group 3: Agricultural Development and Rural Revitalization - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will prioritize grain production to ensure stable supply of grain and important agricultural products [10][13] - A new round of actions to enhance grain production capacity will be implemented, aiming for a target of 1 trillion jin of grain [13] - Efforts will be made to consolidate and expand poverty alleviation achievements, transitioning to a normalized and precise assistance phase [15] Group 4: Energy Sector Outlook - The 2026 energy economic forecast indicates that high-innovation fields such as hydrogen energy, new energy vehicle batteries, and photovoltaic components will maintain high levels of interest [19] - There is potential for collaborative development in nuclear power and biomass energy [19] Group 5: Corporate Financing - In 2025, over 2,300 enterprises financed more than 10.1 trillion yuan in the interbank market, effectively reducing financing costs and supporting the transformation of private enterprises [21]

Market Data - As of January 9, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.92% to 4120.43 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.15% to 14120.15 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.77% to 3327.81 points, with total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reaching 31,227 billion yuan [1] - In the US market on January 9, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.48% to 49,504.07 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.65% to 6,966.28 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.81% to 23,671.35 points [1] Regulatory Updates - The State Administration for Market Regulation announced a revised "Complaint Handling Measures" effective April 15, which clarifies the jurisdiction for complaints against online store operators and live streaming platforms [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized eight key areas for the national business system to focus on by 2026, including boosting consumption and developing digital, green, and health consumption [2] - The National Health Insurance Administration is launching a pilot program for "Personal Medical Insurance Cloud" from February to December, aiming to create a smart healthcare management model [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is committed to deepening investment and financing reforms to enhance the capital market's quality and growth [2] Fund Management - New regulations on fund sales fees will take effect on January 1, 2027, prohibiting fund managers from charging subscription fees and requiring a "pay first, refund later" model for sales service fees [4] - Fund managers must complete adjustments to ensure fair treatment of investors by merging fund shares and standardizing fee rates by the deadline [4] Market Investigations - The State Council's Anti-Monopoly and Anti-Unfair Competition Committee is investigating the competitive landscape of the food delivery platform industry due to issues like price wars and market saturation [5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is investigating abnormal stock price fluctuations of Ningbo Tianpu Rubber Technology Co., Ltd., which has raised market concerns [7] New Stock Offerings - Two new stocks are scheduled for subscription this week: Aisheren (920050.BJ) on Monday and Hengyun Chang (688785.SH) on Friday [8][9]