Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Oil traders expect OPEC+ to maintain crude oil production at the meeting this weekend and temporarily halt previous accelerated production increases. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) points out that the global oil market will face a significant supply surplus by the end of the year. Geopolitically, the Russia-Ukraine negotiations remain deadlocked, and there are no current plans for leaders' meetings. In the short term, oil prices will oscillate at high levels, with short - term trading in the range of 490 - 500, and long - term long positions are recommended to be held [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Turkish President Erdogan discussed ways to end the Ukraine war with Russian President Putin in China and called Ukrainian President Zelensky, but both sides are "not ready" for a leaders' meeting. Investors are watching the OPEC+ meeting on September 7 for production policy adjustment clues, and market institutions expect no lifting of the voluntary production cuts of eight oil - producing countries including Saudi Arabia and Russia, with a neutral outlook [3]. - **Basis**: On September 2, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $71.9 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $71.28 per barrel, with a basis of 42.62 yuan per barrel, indicating that the spot price was at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending August 22 decreased by 974,000 barrels (expected decrease of 1.725 million barrels), the EIA inventory for the same period decreased by 2.392 million barrels (expected decrease of 1.863 million barrels), the Cushing area inventory decreased by 838,000 barrels (previous increase of 419,000 barrels), and as of September 2, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 5.721 million barrels, remaining unchanged, with a neutral outlook [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average, with a neutral outlook [3]. - **Main Position**: As of August 26, the main long positions in WTI crude oil decreased, while those in Brent crude oil increased, with a neutral outlook [3]. 3.2 Recent News - The US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals upheld a lower - court decision that Trump exceeded his authority in imposing certain tariffs, but investors should not expect significant short - term changes due to slow Supreme Court proceedings and potential congressional intervention [5]. - Kazakhstan's crude oil production (excluding condensate) in August increased to 1.88 million barrels per day from 1.84 million barrels per day in July, a 2% increase, and was higher than its OPEC quota of 1.53 million barrels per day. The total production of oil and condensate increased from 2.09 million barrels per day in July to 2.15 million barrels per day in August [5]. - OPEC+ is expected to discuss production policies on Sunday, and the market is preparing for a global supply surplus, which may put pressure on oil prices. However, the supply surplus has not yet been reflected in inventory data or the crude oil futures structure. OPEC+ agreed to fully lift the voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day one year ahead of schedule, and it is generally expected that the organization will maintain the current policy in the face of macro - economic uncertainties [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The US imposes secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and the Sino - US tariff exemption period is extended again [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: There is hope for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts have decreased, and the risk of trade tariff issues has increased. In the medium - to - long term, supply will increase after the peak season ends [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil increased by $0.99 (1.45%), $1.58 (2.47%), 6.20 yuan (1.28%), and $1.33 (1.89%) respectively [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: The spot prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil in the Pacific Rim, Shengli crude oil in the Pacific Rim, and Dubai crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased by $0.41 (0.59%), $0.90 (1.39%), $0.44 (0.62%), $1.19 (1.82%), and $1.20 (1.70%) respectively [9]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of August 26, the net long position was 109,472, a decrease of 10,737 from the previous period [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of August 26, the net long position was 109,472, a decrease of 10,737 from the previous period [19].

Group 1: Gold Market - Economists express concerns that the Federal Reserve may lose its independence in setting interest rates due to Trump's actions, with 25% fearing this could happen before the end of his term in 2029 [1] - The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates an 89.6% probability of a rate cut in September, with a 47.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut in October [1] - Gold prices have been rising, nearing the historical high of $3500, with no immediate signs of a peak; short-term support is at $3466 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting is crucial, especially after the last meeting announced an increase in production by 547,000 barrels per day [3] - The U.S. crude oil production reached a record high of 13.58 million barrels per day in June, while the IEA warns of a global supply increase of 2.5 million barrels per day, significantly outpacing demand growth of 700,000 barrels per day [3] - Oil prices have been fluctuating between $62 and $65 since mid-August, with a potential for further declines if the price does not break above $65 [3] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a significant drop at the end of July and have been fluctuating between $4.32 and $4.50 in August, indicating a potential for further declines [6] - A short-term breakout above $4.50 was not sustained, with resistance at $4.51 and support at $4.46 [6] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index shows a weak downward trend, recently bouncing back from the support level around 41800; a stable position above 42400 could indicate a return to an upward trend [7]

Gold Sector - The recent dismissal of Fed Governor Cook by Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, as Trump has appointed four out of seven members [1] - Analyst Owen from Zhisheng Research notes that expectations for Fed rate cuts are increasing, contributing to a strong bullish trend in gold prices, which recently reached a high of $3,453 [1] - The technical outlook for gold remains positive, with a key support level at $3,429 [1] Oil Sector - OPEC plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, fully lifting the voluntary cut of 2.2 million barrels per day that began in November 2023, aiming to regain market share [3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a global oil supply increase of 2.5 million barrels per day, surpassing the demand increase of 700,000 barrels per day, raising concerns about oversupply [3] - The recent tariff announcement by Trump on Indian goods, aimed at curbing India's oil imports from Russia, has not deterred India from increasing its Russian oil imports, indicating potential market volatility [3] - The technical outlook for oil shows a weak trend, with resistance at $65 and support at $63, with risks of further declines if support levels are breached [3] Copper Sector - Copper prices have been fluctuating between $4.32 and $4.50 throughout August, indicating a weak rebound after a significant drop in late July, with potential for further declines [5] - Short-term outlook suggests that if copper prices rise, they may target the $4.60 level [5] Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index has shown a weak downward trend, with the 42,000 level at risk, indicating that the adjustment phase is not yet over [6] - Key support is noted at 41,800, while resistance is at 42,650, with potential for a return to an upward trend if structural support is established [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices oscillated weakly due to concerns about global crude oil supply surplus and seasonal demand decline. OPEC+ relaxing production cuts and non - OPEC+ countries increasing production led to higher supply expectations. While refinery profits are good currently, the approaching end of the US summer driving season reduces gasoline demand expectations. Geopolitical factors offer some support but the overall market sentiment is bearish, with a high probability of short - term weak oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and look for opportunities to widen spreads on the option side after volatility increases [1]. Polyester Industry - PX: Supply is increasing as检修 devices restart, and downstream PTA has many unplanned shutdowns due to low processing fees. Although the "Golden September and Silver October" demand expectation exists, terminal load declined this week, and the demand support is limited. PX11 should focus on the support around 6800, and the strategy of widening the PX - SC spread should exit at high levels [43]. - PTA: In August - September, supply - demand situation has improved compared to expectations due to more unplanned shutdowns. However, terminal load declined this week, and demand support is limited. TA should focus on the support around 4750 and adopt a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 [43]. - Ethylene Glycol: Domestic supply is increasing as devices resume production, and port inventory is at a low level. With the approaching of the demand peak season, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. Sellers of the short - put option EG2601 - P - 4350 can hold [43]. - Short - fiber: Supply load remains high, demand is uncertain, and it mainly follows raw material fluctuations. The single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk oscillates between 800 - 1100 with limited upward and downward drivers [43]. - Bottle chips: In August, it is the peak consumption season, and inventory is slowly decreasing. The processing fee has support at the bottom, but it is suppressed by the short - term strengthening of the cost side. The PR single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the main - contract processing fee on the disk is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [43]. Methanol - Port inventory is increasing significantly, the basis is weak, and imports in September remain high. The supply side has high domestic and rising overseas non - Iranian production. The demand side is weak due to the off - season, but there is an expectation of MTO device restart in September. Future attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [72][74]. Urea - The rebound of the urea futures is driven by short - term supply contraction due to more device shutdowns for maintenance. Although daily production is still higher than last year, the expected production reduction supports the market. Downstream restocking also strengthens the supply - contraction expectation. However, the market is still in a state of inventory accumulation, and the rebound strength may be limited. Future attention should be paid to device restart progress, port collection, and industrial demand in North China before the parade [85]. Polyolefins - PP: Devices scheduled for restart next week will increase production. The price center is moving down, and the weighted profit is compressed. PP achieves inventory reduction with both supply and demand increasing. - PE: High - level maintenance will continue until September. It shows a stable - to - downward trend. Supply decreases while demand increases, with upstream inventory reduction and mid - stream inventory accumulation. Before mid - September, the overall supply pressure is not large, and the LP01 spread should be held [88]. Chlor - Alkali - Caustic Soda: The futures price is slightly falling, and the previous high - level resistance is obvious. Although the spot market was strong before, with good demand from Shandong's downstream alumina plants and inventory reduction, the supply is expected to increase as some plants resume production. The demand is growing, but the short - term futures pressure may be transmitted to the spot market, and short - selling can be considered [91]. - PVC: The futures price is weakening, and the spot price is also decreasing. Supply is expected to increase as new production capacity is put into use and maintenance decreases. Demand from downstream products is weak, and export pressure increases due to the Indonesian anti - dumping tax. Previous short positions can be held [91]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene: There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in the third quarter, but as previous maintenance devices resume and there will be a concentrated arrival of pure benzene at the terminal in the second half of the month, the fundamental advantage is weakening. It oscillates weakly, and BZ2603 should follow the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [94]. - Styrene: Downstream 3S load declined slightly this week. The industry is in a loss, supply is high, and port inventory is high, so the short - term drive is weak. However, there are more maintenance plans in September - October, and export expectations increase, so the supply - demand situation may improve. EB10 short positions should be closed at low levels, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [94]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 29, Brent crude was at $68.62/barrel (up $0.57 or 0.84% from August 28), WTI was at $64.19/barrel (down $0.41 or - 0.63%), and SC was at 500.10 yuan/barrel (up 6.60 yuan or 1.34%). Different price spreads also showed various changes [1]. - **Product Oil**: NYM RBOB increased by 2.34%, NYM ULSD decreased by 0.71%, and ICE Gasoil decreased by 0.04%. Different product oil spreads also changed on August 29 compared to August 28 [1]. - **Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads in different regions and for different products showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased, CFR Japan naphtha increased, CFR China MX decreased, etc. [43]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of POY, FDY, DTY, etc. showed different changes, and cash flows also varied [43]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX, PX futures prices, and various PX spreads all changed [43]. - **PTA - Related**: PTA spot and futures prices decreased, and processing fees also changed [43]. - **MEG - Related**: MEG prices, basis, and cash flows showed different trends, and port inventory was at a low level [43]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 increased slightly, MA2509 decreased, and the MA91 spread and various regional spreads changed [72]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increased [73]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: Domestic upstream开工率 decreased slightly, overseas upstream开工率 increased slightly, and downstream开工率 showed different trends [74]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Different futures contracts showed different price changes, and contract spreads also changed [80][81]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in different regions showed small fluctuations [84]. - **Supply and Demand**: Daily and weekly production, inventory, and开工率 all changed, with production slightly decreasing and inventory increasing [85]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all decreased, and various spreads and basis changed [88]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and trade - related inventories showed different trends [88]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: PE and PP装置开工率 and downstream加权开工率 changed slightly [88]. Chlor - Alkali - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: Prices of different types of caustic soda and PVC in the spot and futures markets showed small changes [91]. - **Supply and Demand**:开工率 of caustic soda and PVC industries, downstream开工率 of caustic soda and PVC products, and inventory all changed [91]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene prices changed, and pure benzene - related prices and spreads also varied [94]. - **Styrene - Related Prices**: Styrene spot and futures prices, spreads, and cash flows changed [94]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports changed [94]. - **产业链开工率**:开工率 of different parts of the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical concerns and are expected to trade in the 480 - 490 range. Long - term, it is recommended to hold long positions, but there is significant upside pressure due to rumored Saudi price cuts and continued Russian oil imports by India [3]. - Citi maintains its forecast for the average price of Brent crude in the third quarter at $66 per barrel and expects the benchmark crude to average $63 in the fourth quarter. By the end of the year, the supply surplus will have a greater impact on the oil supply - demand balance [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Fundamental factors for crude oil 2510 are mixed: 9 - month Russian oil exports to India may increase; Saudi may cut October official export prices; oil supply to Hungary and Slovakia from Russia has resumed. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. US API and EIA inventories decreased last week, and Cushing area inventories also declined. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the average. WTI long positions increased, while Brent long positions decreased. Short - term, prices are expected to trade between 480 - 490, and long - term, long positions should be held [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Russia launched a large - scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine, causing damage to buildings in Kiev, strong reactions from European leaders, and casualties. Ukraine also attacked Russian refineries [5]. - German Chancellor Merz believes that a direct meeting between Putin and Zelensky is unlikely, casting doubt on Trump's efforts to promote a cease - fire agreement [5]. - Citi believes that Russia - related tariffs, sanctions, and attacks on Russian oil facilities are keeping oil prices high. Despite an impending supply surplus, OPEC + production increases are lower than expected, and India may diversify its oil procurement [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: US secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; extension of the Sino - US tariff exemption period [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: A possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine; continued tension in US trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, and trade tariff risks are rising. In the long - term, supply will increase after the peak season ends [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: Brent crude settled at $67.98 (up $0.54, 0.80%), WTI at $64.60 (up $0.45, 0.70%), SC at 481.1 (down 5.30, - 1.09%), and Oman at $68.53 (down $0.92, - 1.32%) [7]. - **Spot Market**: UK Brent Dtd was at $67.51 (up $0.13, 0.19%), WTI at $64.60 (up $0.45, 0.70%), Oman at $69.81 (up $0.38, 0.55%), Shengli at $65.11 (up $0.01, 0.02%), and Dubai at $69.98 (up $0.53, 0.76%) [9]. - **Inventory Data**: US API crude inventories decreased by 974,000 barrels in the week ending August 22, and EIA inventories decreased by 2.392 million barrels. Cushing area inventories decreased by 838,000 barrels. Shanghai crude oil futures inventories remained at 5.721 million barrels as of August 28 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - As of August 19, WTI crude oil long positions increased, and Brent crude oil long positions decreased [3]. - WTI crude oil fund net long positions were 120,209 on August 19, an increase of 3,467 [17]. - Brent crude oil fund net long positions were 182,695 on August 19, a decrease of 23,852 [18].

Core Viewpoint - The new round of fuel price adjustments in China will take effect on August 26, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 180 yuan/ton and 175 yuan/ton respectively, reflecting fluctuations in international oil prices during the adjustment period [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - From August 26, the price of 92 gasoline will decrease by 0.14 yuan per liter, saving consumers approximately 7 yuan for a full tank of 50 liters [1][4]. - The price of 95 gasoline will decrease by 0.15 yuan per liter, and the price of 0 diesel will also decrease by 0.15 yuan per liter [4]. Group 2: International Oil Price Trends - During the adjustment period from August 12 to August 25, international oil prices experienced a decline followed by an increase, with the average price level being lower than the previous adjustment cycle [2]. - The International Energy Agency has revised down its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 while significantly raising the global oil supply growth forecast by 400,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day [2]. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration anticipates that U.S. crude oil production will reach a record high of 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025, with a substantial increase in U.S. crude oil inventories expected in the fourth quarter [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Russia regarding the Ukraine conflict, have contributed to fluctuations in oil prices, with market sentiment shifting from optimism to a stalemate [2]. - As the summer driving season comes to an end, oil demand is expected to gradually decline, compounded by increased production from OPEC+ and rising U.S. oil output, leading to a continued oversupply in the global oil market [2].

Core Viewpoint - The new round of fuel price adjustment will take effect from August 26, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 180 yuan/ton and 175 yuan/ton respectively, reflecting fluctuations in international oil prices during the adjustment period [1][2]. Price Adjustment Details - From August 26, the average price changes are as follows: 92 gasoline will decrease by 0.14 yuan per liter, 95 gasoline by 0.15 yuan per liter, and 0 diesel by 0.15 yuan per liter [3]. - Filling a 50-liter tank with 92 gasoline will save approximately 7 yuan [4]. International Oil Price Trends - During the adjustment period (August 12 to August 25), international oil prices experienced a decline followed by an increase, with the average level being lower than the previous adjustment period [5][6]. - Factors influencing this trend include heightened expectations of oversupply in the global oil market, with the International Energy Agency lowering the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and increasing the supply growth forecast by 400,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day [6]. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that U.S. crude oil production will reach a record high of 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025, with significant increases in U.S. crude oil inventories expected in the fourth quarter [6]. Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing discussions between the U.S. and Russia regarding a peace agreement related to Ukraine have shifted market sentiment from optimism to a stalemate, with geopolitical risks contributing to oil price fluctuations [6]. - As the summer driving season comes to an end, oil demand is expected to gradually decline, compounded by increased production from OPEC+ and rising U.S. oil output, maintaining a global oversupply situation [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-08-26 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，原油震荡偏强 | 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期国际能源署（IEA）发布能源展望报告，由于需求增长缓慢且供应激增，在 OPEC+产 油国扩增产量的背景下，预计明年全球原油市场将面临创纪录供应过剩局面。虽然 IEA 同步上调了 今明两年的全球原油需求数据，但需求增速有所下滑，甚至不到 2023 年的一半。由此导致原油库存 将以 296 万桶日的速度累积，甚至超过 2020 年疫情期间的平均累积速度。随着美联储降息预期升温， 在偏多氛围支撑下，本周一夜盘国内原油期货 2510 合约维持震荡偏强的走势，期价小幅收涨 1 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-26原油早报 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2510： 1.基本面：乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，他计划与美国特使凯洛格讨论与俄罗斯总统普京可能的会晤的 准备工作；匈牙利油气集团MOL表示，如果没有德鲁日巴管道供应，中欧可能在短期内面临燃料短 缺，可能导致燃料价格上涨，匈牙利和斯洛伐克周五表示，在乌克兰最近袭击俄罗斯的一处设施后， 通过德鲁日巴管道的石油供应可能会暂停至少五天；中性 2.基差：8月25日，阿曼原油现货价为70.11美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为69.57美元/桶，基差 28.65元/桶，现货平水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至8月15日当周API原油 ...

Core Insights - The international crude oil market is experiencing a rare reversal in its pricing structure due to expectations of oversupply and geopolitical factors [1] - Brent crude futures prices fell below Dubai crude by 3 cents per barrel, marking the first negative spread since April of this year [1] - This price inversion indicates significant changes in the supply-demand fundamentals in the key European and Asian markets [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The primary factor leading to the weakening of Brent prices is the market's pessimistic outlook on future supply [1] - Traders expect that both OPEC+ and non-OPEC oil-producing countries will increase production, resulting in an oversupply situation in the coming months [1] - This expectation has not only depressed the forward prices of Brent futures but also weakened the inter-month price spread, which typically signals ample short-term supply and a bearish market sentiment [1] Geopolitical Influences - Demand for Middle Eastern crude has been unexpectedly boosted by geopolitical factors [1] - Reports indicate that U.S. President Trump is pressuring India regarding the procurement of Russian oil, leading Indian refiners to seek alternative supplies from the Middle East [1] - As most crude oil exported from the Persian Gulf is priced based on Dubai crude, this additional demand has provided stronger support for Dubai prices compared to Brent, ultimately driving the reversal in their price spread [1]