（原标题：新台币，突发！） 【导读】汇总假期大事以及十大券商的最新研判 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，五一假期结束，A股马上就要开盘了，一起回顾一下假期的大事，以及看看券商分析师们的最新研判！ 假期大事 美方主动向中方传递信息希望谈起来 中方回应：正在评估 中方注意到美方多次表态，表示愿与中方就关税问题进行谈判。同时，美方近期通过相关方面多次主动向中方传递信息，希望与中方谈起来。对 此，中方正在进行评估。中方立场始终如一，打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。关税战、贸易战是由美方单方发起的，美方想谈就应拿出谈的诚 意，要在纠正错误做法、取消单边加征关税等问题上做好准备，拿出行动。 特朗普：将对所有在国外制作的电影征收100%的进口关税 "五一"假期期间，全球风险资产延续修复行情，其中中国资产领涨，恒生科技指数上涨3.1%，纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨2.7%，恒生指数上涨 1.7%，富时中国A50期货上涨0.3%。美股方面，三大指数整体上涨，纳斯达克指数上涨3.0%、标普500指数上涨2.3%、道琼斯工业指数上涨 1.9%，其中纳指与标普500已修复4月2日以来全部跌幅。 欧洲方面，德国DAX指数上涨2.9%，法国CAC ...

Group 1 - The market is expected to continue showing a warming risk appetite and thematic rotation, focusing on low institutional holdings and trading opportunities [2] - The overall market is currently in a narrow fluctuation range, and investors are advised to adopt a low-buy high-sell strategy within this range [3] - Domestic policies are entering an observation period, with a focus on internal demand and technology sectors as key investment themes [4] Group 2 - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to boost "Chinese assets," with AI+ becoming a significant investment theme in May [5] - Consumption and technology are both seen as growth directions, with a preference for technology investments due to their relative low position [6] - Defensive strategies are recommended, with a focus on bonds and dividend assets, as well as potential opportunities in safe-haven assets like gold and military [7] Group 3 - The consumption data during the May Day holiday showed significant recovery, driven by extended holiday time and favorable policies [10] - The market outlook for May suggests a continuation of the fluctuation pattern, with an emphasis on independent industry trends and policy expectations [10]

宏观•要闻 《民营经济促进法》出台 4月30日，十四届全国人大常委会第十五次会议表决通过《民营经济促进法》出台，自2025年5月20日起 施行。民促法是我国首部专门关于民营经济发展的基础性法律，从"公平竞争""投资融资促进""科技创 新"，到"规范经营""服务保障""权益保护"，民促法对民营企业发展中的重点关切予以积极回应。 商务部新闻发言人就中美经贸对话磋商情况答记者问 5月2日，商务部回应中美经贸对话磋商情况称，中方注意到美方高层多次表态，表示愿与中方就关税问 题进行谈判。同时，美方近期通过相关方面多次主动向中方传递信息，希望与中方谈起来。对此，中方 正在进行评估。 蓝佛安：更加积极财政政策的科学设计与成功实践 5月1日出版的最新一期《求是》杂志，刊发财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安的署名文章《更加积极财政政 策的科学设计与成功实践》，传递出积极财政政策设计的丰富内容和实施重点。文章指出，2024年出台 的一批有针对性的财政增量政策，是我国财政宏观调控史上的一次重大创新。具体包括一次性增加6万 亿元地方专项债务限额置换存量隐性债务，加力支持地方化解债务风险；研究发行特别国债支持国有大 型商业银行补充核心一级资本 ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts generally expect a "strong start" for A-shares after the holiday, with a market structure characterized by "stable heavyweight indices and active technology growth" throughout May [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Factors - The easing of Sino-US trade tensions during the May Day holiday has boosted global risk appetite, leading to a rapid appreciation of the RMB and a significant rebound in Chinese equity assets [1][4]. - The global stock markets are gradually returning to pre-"equal tariffs" levels, indicating two potential scenarios: resolution through negotiations or continued fiscal expansion by major economies if negotiations fail [2][4]. - Analysts highlight that the market is currently in a policy observation phase, with a focus on domestic demand and the potential impact of US Federal Reserve policies and LPR dynamics [5]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - AI+ is expected to be a key investment theme in May, driven by high capital expenditure in the AI sector from overseas firms and significant advancements in domestic technology industries [1][3]. - Analysts are optimistic about technology stocks in the 5-6 month period, considering factors such as the resolution of negative first-quarter reports and ongoing progress in AI applications and computing power [2][4]. - The focus on themes such as military, self-sufficiency, and new consumption sectors is emphasized, with a particular interest in AI applications, computing power, and consumer goods [3][4].

中信证券：5月A股将继续呈现风偏回暖、主题轮动的特征；中信建投：操作上以震荡区间低买高卖波 段策略为主；申万宏源：消费和科技都是景气方向。 ②中信建投：操作上以震荡区间低买高卖波段策略为主 中信建投认为，展望后市，只要情绪指数处于50以上，且全A指数处于年线和半年线上方，都应该维持 战略性乐观判断，配置半仓以上仓位。整体看，当前市场已经进入窄幅震荡区间，情绪指数波动带来的 右侧买卖信号作用下降，建议投资者更关注情绪指数整体水平和分项指标的提示意义，操作上以震荡区 间低买高卖波段策略为主。 ③平安证券：政策呵护、内需韧性与科技自主可控将继续支撑A股市场向上空间 平安证券指出，综合来看，五一假期出行旅游、观影消费数据亮眼，伴随国内政策加速落地显效，消费 对经济增长的推动力将持续强化，同时AI科技革命与自主可控逻辑不变，政策呵护、内需韧性与科技 自主可控将继续支撑A股市场向上空间。结构上建议关注两条主线：一是国产科技自主可控（新质生产 力、先进制造、国防军工等）；二是受益于扩内需政策支持，基本面预期修复且具备估值性价比的内循 环消费优质资产。 ④申万宏源：消费和科技都是景气方向 申万宏源表示，维持二季度震荡市判断。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the principle of "trading facts, not expectations" should guide responses to uncertainties arising from the trade war, indicating a potential recovery in risk appetite and a focus on thematic trading opportunities in the A-share market [1][4]. Market Performance - Since the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by Trump, major global stock indices have experienced a noticeable pullback of -20% to -5%, but indices such as India's NIFTY 50, Nikkei 225, and NASDAQ have fully recovered and recorded positive returns [3]. - The commodity market shows a mixed performance, with precious metals and agricultural products achieving positive returns, while industrial metals like aluminum, nickel, and copper have seen minimal declines [3]. Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0% in April, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating weakening economic conditions [12]. - The new export orders index dropped to 44.7%, significantly below the five-year average, primarily due to reduced exports to the U.S. [12]. Investment Strategy - The article suggests focusing on three enduring trends: the enhancement of China's independent technological capabilities, Europe's reconstruction of autonomous defense, and the necessity for China to promote domestic circulation and improve social security [14][15]. - A-shares are expected to exhibit a warming risk preference and thematic rotation, with an emphasis on low institutional holdings [9][10]. Future Outlook - The article anticipates that May may see more bilateral trade agreements that are more symbolic than substantive, with a focus on maintaining economic stability [7][8]. - The potential impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation and retail is expected to become evident by late May to mid-June, as American consumers deplete their pre-tariff stockpiles [13].

Core Viewpoint - The "Foreign Trade Quality Products" series of events in Shandong Province aims to boost holiday consumption through an innovative "tourism + foreign trade" model, showcasing high-quality international products from local exporters [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The first event took place at Daming Lake in Jinan, with simultaneous activities in four other popular tourist areas, featuring 56 foreign trade companies and over a hundred international quality products [1][3]. - The event focuses on six key scenarios: entering scenic spots, business circles, pedestrian streets, government agencies, universities, and communities, offering direct supply of quality goods at local prices [3]. Group 2: Consumer Engagement - The main venue at Daming Lake included six themed areas with interactive experiences, attracting over 30,000 visitors on the first day, with promotional activities leading to a single-day visitor count exceeding 10,000 [5]. - Popular products included textiles and clothing, with significant interest from young tourists in domestic cultural and creative products, resulting in multiple group purchase intentions within just half a day [5]. Group 3: Future Plans - Shandong Province plans to hold 300 more "Foreign Trade Quality Products" events by the end of the year, aiming to expand 500 domestic sales outlets and cultivate 100 integrated demonstration enterprises [6]. - The initiative seeks to establish a long-term mechanism combining "scene integration + channel empowerment" to enhance the local economy [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for forward-looking adjustments in economic layout in response to international developments and challenges [1][2] - The internal circulation and domestic demand are highlighted as significant advantages for a large economy, with "dual circulation" being the most stable economic layout [2][3] - The importance of maintaining strategic determination and proactive measures in economic management is underscored, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations [3][4] Group 2 - The current economic environment is characterized by both strategic opportunities and risks, necessitating a balanced approach to development and security [4] - The need for a modernized national security system and enhanced capabilities to manage risks is emphasized, ensuring that development and safety are mutually reinforcing [4] - The urgency of implementing the "14th Five-Year Plan" goals while planning for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is highlighted, calling for unity and practical efforts in achieving economic and social development [4]

Group 1 - The China-Arab Cooperation Forum's 11th Entrepreneurs Conference and 9th Investment Seminar focused on deepening bilateral economic and trade exchanges and promoting cooperation in global supply chains and industrial chains [1] - Chinese and Arab representatives emphasized the need to leverage their respective advantages to build a "dual circulation" cooperation platform, particularly in energy, new energy vehicles, and digital economy sectors [1] - There is a consensus among attendees to expand cooperation from traditional sectors like energy and infrastructure to emerging fields such as smart manufacturing and green economy [1] Group 2 - The UNIDO representative highlighted the necessity for enhanced vocational training cooperation, specifically calling for China's assistance in technology development [2] - The Libyan-China Business Council chairman noted that Chinese enterprises have participated in over 50 large projects in Libya in recent years, expressing hope for Chinese technical support in future smart city developments [2] - Representatives from various Chinese trade promotion agencies shared cooperation achievements and extended invitations for on-site visits to the Arab business community [2]

钱凯港地处南美洲西海岸中段，背靠拉美、面朝太平洋，是连接亚洲与南美洲贸易的关键节点，也是中 秘共建"一带一路"的标志性项目。 钱凯港开港后，秘鲁到中国的海上运输时间缩短至23天，可节约20%以上的物流成本。 海 广州港首条直航南美西岸的WSA3航线将广州南沙港与秘鲁钱凯港、墨西哥曼萨尼约港、智利圣安东尼 奥港等拉美核心港口串联。 陆 北京时间4月29日12时，中吉乌铁路吉尔吉斯斯坦境内段重点控制性工程开工建设，标志着中吉乌铁路 项目正线工程进入实质性施工阶段。 空 中国南方航空首飞广州经莫尔兹比港至瓦努阿图首都维拉港的客运航班，实现了中国内地至南太平洋岛 国瓦努阿图的首次试运行，这也标志着中国民航通航国家数量增至79个。 广州港南沙港区开通南美西直航航线 广州日报讯（全媒体记者杨朝露、林琳通讯员曹畅、朱嘉明、关悦）4月29日，"中远海运伏尔加河"轮 稳稳停靠广州港南沙二期码头，标志着广州首条直航秘鲁钱凯港航线——中远海运南美西三线 （WSA3）正式开通。该航线自广州港直航南美西岸，将广州南沙港与秘鲁钱凯港、墨西哥曼萨尼约 港、智利圣安东尼奥港等拉美核心港口串联，开通后将助力粤港澳大湾区与拉美西岸地区的物流通道 ...