Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The actual impact of OPEC+ production increase and the updated over - production compensation plan remains to be seen. The probability of OPEC+ unitedly cutting production to support prices at the current oil price level is lower than before. The demand side may focus on the market's expectation of the US debt scale, and a halt in US debt growth may affect crude oil demand. Geopolitical factors are trending towards缓和 but still require sensitivity to emergencies. In a macro - pressured situation, the probability of new geopolitical information is higher. The short - term rebound of oil prices is facing resistance, and the medium - term weak pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended to sell high in the medium term and try to place short positions or bearish positions near the pressure level in the short term, and consider placing out - of - the - money put options due to the approaching holiday in China [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On April 25, the Sc crude oil futures price was 496.10 yuan/barrel, up 0.55% from the previous day and 1.10% from the previous week; WTI was 63.17 dollars/barrel, up 0.64% from the previous day; Brent was 66.91 dollars/barrel, up 0.62% from the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The Sc - WTI spread was 5.67 dollars/barrel, up 0.09% from the previous day; the Sc - Brent spread was 1.93 dollars/barrel, down 0.26% from the previous day; the Brent - WTI spread was 3.74 dollars/barrel, up 93.32% from the previous day [2] - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was 68.83 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.18% from the previous week; Brent DTD was 67.51 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.13% from the previous week; Oman was 67.45 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.45% from the previous week; Dubai was 67.45 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.45% from the previous week; ESPO was 63.99 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and up 2.55% from the previous week [2] - **Product Spot Prices**: Diesel in East China was 6680.09 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from the previous day and down 0.64% from the previous week; gasoline in East China was 7888.91 yuan/ton, down 0.00% from the previous day and down 0.59% from the previous week [2] 3.2 Inventory and Position Data - **Inventory**: The US strategic petroleum reserve was 397.48 million barrels, up 0.12% from the previous week; commercial crude oil was 443.10 million barrels, up 0.06% from the previous week; Cushing crude oil was 25.02 million barrels, down 0.34% from the previous week; gasoline was 229.54 million barrels, down 1.91% from the previous week; distillates were 106.88 million barrels, down 2.15% from the previous week [2] - **Position**: The non - commercial net position of CFTC was 17.10 million contracts, up 16.80% from the previous week; the commercial net position was - 17.39 million contracts, down 13.12% from the previous week; the non - report net position was 0.29 million contracts, down 60.11% from the previous week [2] 3.3 Geopolitical and Policy News - US Secretary of State Rubio said the US would not expand sanctions on Russia to avoid interfering with the peace process in the Ukraine conflict, but Trump proposed possible financial or secondary sanctions on Putin. Russia and Ukraine are closer to a peace agreement. The Iran's Abbas Port explosion injured 195 people, and the explosion did not affect energy facilities. The US - Iran talks will continue next week, and a high - level meeting is tentatively scheduled for May 3. Trump said he would not cancel tariffs on China unless China made substantial concessions, while China emphasized that the US should correct its mistakes and cancel all unilateral tariffs [3][5] 3.4 Market and Macro News - The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate in May is 90.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in June is 58.6%. European Central Bank policymakers are more confident about a rate cut in June due to continuous inflation decline. The impact of US tariff policies will start to show nationwide at the end of next month, and it will have a greater impact on low - income Americans. Crude oil futures have rebounded strongly from the trough earlier this month, but in euro terms, Brent oil futures have fallen 11% this year, and European buyers' actual oil purchase cost has dropped more significantly, which may boost oil demand marginally [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, particularly regarding propylene profitability and the expected tightening of supply-demand dynamics [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the anticipated reduction in operating rates for PDH units due to high costs associated with U.S. propane imports, which could lead to a significant drop in propylene supply [4][5]. - It emphasizes the potential for increased imports from Japan and South Korea, although these may not fully compensate for the domestic supply gap [4][5]. - The report suggests that the overall profitability of PDH units remains low, and future tariffs could delay or cancel planned new capacity [4][5]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices closed at $66.87 per barrel, a decrease of 1.60% from the previous week, while WTI prices fell by 2.57% to $63.02 per barrel [4][22]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 244,000 barrels, while gasoline inventories decreased by 4.476 million barrels [25][22]. - The report notes a stable day rate for self-elevating drilling rigs, indicating a recovery trend in the oil service sector [4][22]. Refining Sector - The report indicates an increase in overseas refined oil crack spreads, with Singapore's refining margin rising to $10.75 per barrel [4][22]. - The profitability of domestic refining products is expected to improve gradually as economic recovery progresses [4][22]. Polyester Sector - PTA profitability has increased, while polyester filament profitability has decreased, indicating mixed performance within the polyester supply chain [4][22]. - The report suggests that the polyester industry may see improvements in the medium to long term as new capacity comes online [4][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong due to favorable competitive dynamics [4][17]. - It also highlights the potential for valuation recovery in companies like Satellite Chemical and Tongkun Co., given the expected improvements in the industry [4][17].

报告日期：2025 年 4 月 25 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：央行 MLF 操作，黄金强势依旧 中美没有就关税问题磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。据新华网，有记者问：近 来美方不断有消息称，中美之间正在谈判，甚至将会达成协议。你能否证实双方 有没有开始谈判？外交部发言人郭嘉昆说，这些都是假消息。"据我了解，中美 双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。"特朗普考虑对华 关税分级方案。央视网援引《华尔街日报》报道，美方高级官员透露，特朗普政 府正考虑多种方案。中国央行 25 日将开展 6000 亿元 MLF 操作，将实现净投放 5000 亿。本月有 1000 亿元 MLF 到期，在 4 月 25 日进行 6000 亿元 MLF 操作后， 将实现净投放 5000 亿元。3 月央行超量续作 MLF，实现净投放 630 亿元，是 2024 年 7 月以来 MLF 首次净投放，展现了适度宽松的货币政策取向。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、集运指数 原油：SC 上涨 1%。有消息援引哈萨克新任命的能源部长的话说，在决定石油产 量水平时，哈萨克斯坦将优先考虑国家利益，而非欧佩克及其减产同盟国的利益。 他还表 ...