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LPG早报-20251212
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 01:21
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic LPG market shows a situation where the internal valuation is relatively high. Although the domestic chemical industry has poor profits, the operating rate remains strong, and there is an expectation of a slight increase in civil demand, providing short - term support. Attention should be paid to winter weather and oil price conditions [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Data and Information Daily Changes - On Thursday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4415 (-9), in Shandong was 4400 (+30), and in South China was 4420 (-20). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4570 (+0). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of 292 (+164), the 01 - 02 month spread was 68 (-9), and the 03 - 04 month spread was - 237 (-31). As of 21:00, FEI was 527 (-4) and CP was 521 (-3) dollars per ton [1] Weekly Views - The futures market was volatile, with a basis of 143 (+232), the 01 - 02 month spread of 79 (+3), and the 03 - 04 month spread of - 211 (-19). The number of warehouse receipts was 4611 lots (-200). Civil LPG prices rose, and the cheapest delivery product was civil LPG in East China at 4411 (+88). The foreign market FEI declined, while CP and MB increased, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. The internal and external markets weakened, with PG - CP dropping to 100 (-21) and PG - FEI dropping to 79 (-7). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The arrival premium for propane in East China was 97 (-2), and the FOB premiums for propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 30 (+18.75), 25 (-13), and 43 dollars (+4) respectively. Freight rates declined. The spot profit of PDH weakened, and the futures profit decreased; the alkylation unit improved; the MTBE profit fluctuated. Port inventories decreased (-7%) due to a significant drop in arrivals (-18%) and a slight increase in demand; refinery inventories increased slightly (+0.86%). The PDH operating rate was 70.22% (+0.4pct), the alkylation operating rate was 37.93% (+1pct), and the MTBE operating rate was 71.58% (+0) [1]
LPG早报-20251210
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 01:41
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广发期货《农产品》日报-20251209
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 07:00
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oil and Fat Industry - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a volatile adjustment. There are concerns about inventory growth and weak December exports. It is oscillating around 4,100 ringgit, waiting for the MPOB supply - demand report. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures may weaken under the influence of Malaysian palm oil, with a possible decline to seek support at 8,500 yuan. - The market expects an increase in the US soybean ending inventory, which pressures CBOT soybeans and affects CBOT soybean oil. The decline of BMD palm oil also drags down CBOT soybean oil. Domestically, the decline of international related varieties has a greater impact on Dalian soybean oil. Factory开机率 has decreased, but the inventory change is not significant due to limited downstream demand [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry - Spot prices show signs of stabilizing and rebounding. Although large - scale enterprises still have significant sales pressure, the increasing demand for southern curing and the potential entry of secondary fattening may support prices. However, the overall large - scale production increase pattern remains unchanged. - The futures market is affected by a positive macro - atmosphere. Bullish funds are actively entering the market, and the futures may maintain a slightly stronger trend in the short term [3]. 2.3 Meal and Bean Industry - The US soybean price is in a correction, and China's policy - based procurement is uncertain. The domestic meal market remains in a loose pattern, and the single - side price is under pressure. The key lies in whether US soybean purchases can meet the domestic arrival volume in March. The market outlook is weak, but the basis may strengthen [6]. 2.4 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures slightly increase, but the sufficient supply and weak demand in the spot market suppress the upward movement of futures prices. Brazil's sugar exports in early December increased. India's sugar production has increased significantly, and the overall raw sugar price is in a bearish pattern. The domestic sugar price is expected to be in a volatile and weak trend [9]. 2.5 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the northeast region, the price is stable due to the support of inventory replenishment and policy procurement. In the north - central region, prices are firm due to the shortage of high - quality grains. On the demand side, some deep - processing enterprises are in deficit, and feed enterprises have low enthusiasm for long - term inventory building. The futures price may decline slightly in the short term, but the decline may be limited [11]. 2.6 Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures closed lower. Traders are cautious before the USDA monthly supply - demand report. US cotton export sales increased significantly in the week ending November 6. Domestically, the hedging pressure on Zhengzhou cotton is increasing, but the rigid demand from the industrial downstream and the good profit situation of textile enterprises may limit the downward space. The cotton price may fluctuate within a range in the short term [15]. 2.7 Egg Industry - The supply side still has significant pressure, with a high inventory of laying hens and slow decline. The demand side lacks obvious positive factors, but the positive market sentiment provides some support. Egg prices are expected to be weak with limited downward space [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil and Fat Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8,600 yuan, the futures price (Y2601) decreased by 0.44% to 8,230 yuan, and the basis increased by 10.78% to 370 yuan. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong decreased by 0.57% to 8,690 yuan, the futures price (P2601) decreased by 0.73% to 8,706 yuan, and the basis increased by 46.67% to - 16 yuan. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.00% to 8,960 yuan, the futures price (OI601) decreased by 1.21% to 9,502 yuan, and the basis increased by 4.30% to 388 yuan [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The soybean oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 6.45% to 198 yuan, the palm oil 01 - 05 spread decreased by 50.00% to 4 yuan, and the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 8.06% to 228 yuan. - **Cross - variety Spread**: The spot soybean - palm oil spread increased by 35.71% to - 90 yuan, the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread increased by 1.76% to - 670 yuan, the spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 7.19% to 1,290 yuan, and the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 5.92% to 1,272 yuan [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry 3.2.1 Futures Indicators - The price of the main contract of live pigs 2605 increased by 1.27% to 11,955 yuan/ton, and the price of 2603 increased by 2.71% to 11,385 yuan/ton. The 3 - 5 spread increased by 20.83% to - 570 yuan. The main contract positions increased by 81.80% to 151,512, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 108 [3]. 3.2.2 Spot Indicators - Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends. The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.07% to 217,041 heads, the weekly white - strip price remained unchanged at 18.21 yuan, the weekly piglet price remained unchanged at 17.00 yuan/kg, the weekly sow price remained unchanged at 32.47 yuan, the weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.46% to 129.82 kg, the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 13.31% to - 168 yuan/head, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 4.25% to - 259 yuan/head, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 1.12% to 3,990 million heads [3]. 3.3 Meal and Bean Industry 3.3.1 Price Changes - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.65% to 3,040 yuan, and the futures price (M2605) decreased by 1.52% to 2,778 yuan. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The futures price (RM2605) decreased by 1.47% to 2,342 yuan. - **Soybean**: The warehouse receipt of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 15,766 [6]. 3.3.2 Spread Changes - The soybean meal 05 - 09 spread decreased by 2.61% to - 3 yuan, the rapeseed meal 05 - 09 spread increased by 4.35% to - 66 yuan, the spot oil - meal ratio increased by 0.66% to 2.83, and the 2605 soybean - rapeseed meal spread decreased by 1.80% to 436 yuan [6]. 3.4 Sugar Industry 3.4.1 Futures Market - The price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.64% to 5,337 yuan/ton, the price of 2605 increased by 0.21% to 5,244 yuan/ton, and the ICE raw sugar main contract increased by 0.07% to 14.83 cents/pound. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 32.86% to 93 yuan/ton. The main contract positions decreased by 8.69% to 289,716, the number of warehouse receipts increased to 181, and the effective forecast increased by 714.21% to 1,490 [9]. 3.4.2 Spot Market - Spot prices in Nanning remained unchanged at 5,360 yuan, and in Kunming decreased by 0.37% to 5,320 yuan. The basis in Nanning decreased by 8.66% to 116 yuan, and in Kunming decreased by 28.97% to 76 yuan. The import price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) decreased by 0.37% to 4,079 yuan, and (outside quota) decreased by 0.39% to 5,168 yuan [9]. 3.4.3 Industry Situation - National sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1,116.21 million tons, sales increased by 9.17% to 1,048.00 million tons, the national sales ratio decreased by 2.60% to 93.90%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 41.20% to 68.21 million tons. Sugar imports increased by 37.50% to 55.00 million tons [9]. 3.5 Corn and Corn Starch Industry 3.5.1 Corn - The price of corn 2601 decreased by 1.48% to 2,261 yuan, the basis increased by 97.14% to 69 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 144.44% to - 4 yuan. The northern - southern trade profit decreased by 20.41% to 39 yuan, the import profit decreased by 15.13% to 314 yuan, the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 13.64% to 399, the positions decreased by 2.25% to 2,354,124, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 57,705 [11]. 3.5.2 Corn Starch - The price of corn starch 2601 decreased by 1.51% to 2,549 yuan, the basis increased by 1950.00% to 41 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 40.74% to - 38 yuan, the 01 spread between starch and corn decreased by 1.71% to 288 yuan, the Shandong starch profit decreased by 25.00% to 6 yuan, the positions decreased by 2.52% to 333,585 [11]. 3.6 Cotton Industry 3.6.1 Futures Market - The price of cotton 2605 increased by 0.04% to 13,725 yuan/ton, the price of 2601 remained unchanged at 13,750 yuan/ton, the ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.33% to 63.74 cents/pound. The 5 - 1 spread increased by 16.67% to - 25 yuan. The main contract positions decreased by 1.75% to 489,062 hands, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 1.62% to 2,753, and the effective forecast increased by 8.02% to 3,004 [15]. 3.6.2 Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.17% to 14,847 yuan, the CC Index of 3128B decreased by 0.09% to 15,009 yuan, and the FC Index of M: 1% decreased by 0.08% to 12,843 yuan [15]. 3.6.3 Industry Situation - Commercial inventory increased by 28.7% to 468.36 million tons, industrial inventory increased by 0.9% to 93.96 million tons, imports decreased by 10.0% to 9.00 million tons, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.8% to 32.20 million tons [15]. 3.7 Egg Industry 3.7.1 Futures and Spot Prices - The price of the egg 01 contract increased by 1.15% to 3,153 yuan/500KG, and the price of 02 increased by 0.80% to 3,038 yuan/500KG. The egg - producing area price increased by 0.41% to 2.98 yuan/FT, the basis decreased by 15.45% to - 178 yuan/500KG, and the 1 - 2 spread increased by 11.65% to 115 yuan [19]. 3.7.2 Related Indicators - The price of laying hens increased by 5.56% to 2.85 yuan/feather, the price of culled chickens increased by 1.58% to 3.86 yuan/FT, the egg - feed ratio increased by 3.90% to 2.40, and the breeding profit increased by 20.35% to - 22.62 yuan/feather [19].
LPG早报-20251209
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 01:47
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The domestic market has a relatively high valuation. Although the domestic chemical industry has poor profits, the operating rate remains firm, and there is an expectation of a slight increase in civil demand, so there is still short - term support. Attention should also be paid to winter weather and oil price conditions [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Daily Changes - On Monday, for civil gas, the prices in East China were 4401 (-10), in Shandong 4500 (+0), and in South China 4460 (-10). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4540 (+70). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 91 (-52) and a 01 - 02 month spread of 71 (-8). As of 21:00, FEI was 528 (+2) and CP was 508 (+2) dollars/ton [1]. Weekly Views - The futures market fluctuated. The basis was 143 (+232), the 01 - 02 month spread was 79 (+3), and the 03 - 04 month spread was -211 (-19). The number of warehouse receipts was 4611 (-200) hands. Civil gas prices rose, and the cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4411 (+88). The external market FEI declined, while CP and MB increased, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. Both domestic and external markets weakened. PG - CP dropped to 100 (-21); PG - FEI dropped to 79 (-7). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The arrival premium of propane in East China was 97 (-2), and the FOB premiums of propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the US were 30 (+18.75), 25 (-13), and 43 dollars (+4) respectively. Freight rates decreased [1]. - PDH spot profits weakened, and the futures market profits declined; the alkylation unit improved; MTBE profits fluctuated. Port inventories decreased (-7%) due to a significant drop in incoming ships (-18%) and a slight increase in demand; refinery inventories increased slightly (+0.86%). The PDH operating rate was 70.22% (+0.4pct), the alkylation operating rate was 37.93% (+1pct), and the MTBE operating rate was 71.58% (+0) [1].
LPG早报-20251208
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-08 02:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic market has a relatively high valuation. Although the domestic chemical industry has poor profits, its operation remains stable, and there is an expectation of a slight increase in civil demand. Therefore, there is still short - term support for the driving force. Attention should also be paid to winter weather and oil price conditions [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Daily Changes - On Friday, in the civil gas market, the price in East China was 4411 (+0), in Shandong was 4500 (+20), and in South China was 4470 (-50). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4470 (+10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 79 (-22), and the 01 - 02 month difference was 79 (+0). As of 15:00, FEI was 516 (-1) and CP was 498 (-4) dollars/ton [1] 3.2 Weekly Views - The futures market fluctuated. The basis was 143 (+232), the 01 - 02 month difference was 79 (+3), and the 03 - 04 month difference was -211 (-19). The number of warehouse receipts was 4611 lots (-200). The price of civil gas increased, and the cheapest deliverable product was East China civil gas at 4411 (+88). The external market FEI declined, while CP and MB increased, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. Both domestic and international markets weakened. The PG - CP spread reached 100 (-21); the PG - FEI spread reached 79 (-7). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened [1] - The arrival premium of propane in East China was 97 (-2), and the FOB premiums of propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 30 (+18.75), 25 (-13), and 43 dollars (+4) respectively. Freight rates declined. The spot profit of PDH weakened, and the futures profit decreased; the alkylation unit improved; the MTBE profit fluctuated [1] - Port inventories decreased (-7%) due to a significant drop in arrivals (-18%) and a slight increase in demand; refinery inventories increased slightly (+0.86%). The PDH operating rate was 70.22% (+0.4pct), the alkylation operating rate was 37.93% (+1pct), and the MTBE operating rate was 71.58% (+0) [1]
LPG早报-20251205
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-05 01:41
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The PG futures price declined. The basis was -43 (-57), and the spread between January and February contracts was 109 (-19). Domestic civil LPG prices decreased, the spread between propane and civil LPG narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts was 4561 (-54). [1] - The prices of overseas paper goods decreased, the monthly spread strengthened, the change in the oil - gas price ratio between North Asia and North America was small. The domestic - overseas PG - CP spread was 126 (-2); PG - FEI was 114 (+3). The discounts for East China arrival, North America, and AFEI departure remained flat, the Middle East supply was tight with a discount of 35 US dollars (+13). Freight rates decreased slightly. [1] - The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -55 (+11). The profit of propylene production from PDH in Shandong slightly recovered, the alkylation unit slightly improved but was still poor, the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit was still good. [1] - The arrival volume increased, the external release decreased, factory inventories slightly increased, and port inventories increased. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan was expected to restart next week. [1] - Overall, the domestic chemical sector was relatively strong, and civil demand increased, but the arrival volume was expected to be high in December; the Middle East supply was tight, but the market may tend to wait and see as the CP official price was approaching. Attention should also be paid to the weather and oil prices. [1] 3) Summary According to Related Data Daily Changes - On Thursday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4411 (+0), in Shandong was 4480 (+0), and in South China was 4530 (+0). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4460 (-20). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 101 (-21), and the spread between January and February contracts was 79 (-17). [1] - As of 15:00, FEI was 517 (+10) and CP was 502 (+3) US dollars per ton. [1] Weekly View - The PG futures price declined, the domestic civil LPG price decreased, the difference between propane and civil LPG narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased. [1] - Overseas paper goods prices declined, the monthly spread strengthened, the change in the oil - gas price ratio between North Asia and North America was small, and the domestic - overseas spreads changed. The discounts and freight rates had corresponding changes. [1] - The profit of some chemical production units changed, the arrival volume increased, the external release decreased, inventories increased, and the PDH operating rate decreased. [1] - The domestic chemical sector was relatively strong, civil demand increased, but the arrival volume was expected to be high in December, and the market may wait and see as the CP official price was approaching. Attention should be paid to the weather and oil prices. [1]
油脂产业期现日报-20251204
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-04 05:12
| 油脂产业期现日报 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 土泽辉 Z0019938 2025年12月4日 | | 原田 | | 现价 江苏一级 8620 8620 0 0.00% | | 期价 Y2601 8286 8288 -2 -0.02% | | 墓差 Y2601 334 332 2 0.60% | | 江苏1月 01+260 01+270 现货基差报价 -10 | | 8619 | | 棕榈油 | | 12月3日 12月2日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 8720 8620 现价 广东24度 100 1.16% | | 8720 0.11% 期价 P2601 8730 10 | | 基差 P2601 -10 -100 90 90.00% | | 现货基差报价 广东1月 01+50 01+0 50 ត | | 盘面进口成本 广州港1月 9195.1 9091.7 103.4 1.14% | | 盘面进口利润 -372 -93 -25.14% 广州港1月 -465 | | 仓单 352 355 0.00% 0 | | 菜籽油 | | 现价 江苏三级 10050 10080 ...
LPG早报-20251204
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-04 01:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The PG futures price has declined, with a decrease in the basis and a change in the 01 - 02 spread. Domestic civil gas prices have fallen, and the cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas with a shrinking propane - civil gas price difference. Warehouse receipts have decreased. The overseas paper - cargo prices have dropped, and the spread has strengthened. The price ratio between North Asian and North American oil and gas has changed little. The PG - CP and PG - FEI spreads have changed. The premiums and discounts for East China arrival, North American and AFEI departure have remained flat, while the premium for Middle Eastern goods has increased. Freight rates have slightly declined. The FEI - MOPJ spread has narrowed. The profit of Shandong PDH to produce propylene has slightly recovered, and the alkylation unit has slightly improved but is still poor. The MTBE production profit has fluctuated, and the export profit is still good. There is an increase in arrivals, a decrease in external sales, a slight accumulation of factory inventories, and an accumulation of port inventories. The PDH operating rate has decreased, and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week. Overall, domestic chemical demand is relatively strong, and civil demand has increased, but there are expected to be more arrivals in December. Middle Eastern supplies are tight, but the market may be more inclined to wait and see as the CP official price announcement approaches. Additionally, weather and oil prices need to be monitored [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Daily Price Changes - On Wednesday, for civil gas, the price in East China was 4411 (+35), in Shandong was 4480 (+10), and in South China was 4530 (+0). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4480 (-20). The lowest - delivery area was East China, with a basis of 129 (+65) and a 01 - 02 spread of 91 (+4). As of 21:00, FEI was 509 (-1) and CP was 500 (+0) dollars/ton [1] 3.2 Weekly Price and Market Conditions - The PG futures price has decreased, with a basis of - 43 (-57) and a 01 - 02 spread of 109 (-19). Domestic civil gas prices have dropped, and the cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4315 (-49), with a shrinking propane - civil gas price difference. Warehouse receipts are 4561 hands (-54). Overseas paper - cargo prices have declined, and the spread has strengthened. The price ratio between North Asian and North American oil and gas has changed little, and the PG - CP has reached 126 (-2); the PG - FEI has reached 114 (+3). The premiums and discounts for East China arrival, North American and AFEI departure have remained flat, while the premium for Middle Eastern goods is 35 dollars (+13). Freight rates have slightly decreased. The FEI - MOPJ spread has narrowed to - 55 (+11) [1] 3.3 Profit and Operating Rate - The profit of Shandong PDH to produce propylene has slightly recovered. The alkylation unit has slightly improved but is still poor. The MTBE production profit has fluctuated, and the export profit is still good. The PDH operating rate is 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week [1] 3.4 Inventory and Market Outlook - There is an increase in arrivals, a decrease in external sales, a slight accumulation of factory inventories, and an accumulation of port inventories. Overall, domestic chemical demand is relatively strong, and civil demand has increased, but there are expected to be more arrivals in December. Middle Eastern supplies are tight, but the market may be more inclined to wait and see as the CP official price announcement approaches. Additionally, weather and oil prices need to be monitored [1]
LPG早报-20251201
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 00:57
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PG futures prices have declined The basis is -43 (-57), and the spread between January and February contracts is 109 (-19) Domestic LPG prices for civil use have decreased The cheapest deliverable is the civil - use LPG in East China at 4315 (-49), and the price difference between propane and civil - use LPG has narrowed The number of warehouse receipts is 4561 (-54) [1] - The paper prices in the overseas market have decreased, while the spread between contracts has strengthened The ratio of oil and gas prices in North Asia and North America has changed little The spread between domestic PG and CP has reached 126 (-2); the spread between PG and FEI has reached 114 (+3) The discounts for East China's arrival, North America's and AFEI's departure have remained stable The supply of Middle - Eastern goods is tight, with a discount of 35 USD (+13) Freight rates have slightly decreased The spread between FEI and MOPJ has narrowed to -55 (+11) [1] - The profit of propylene production from PDH in Shandong has slightly recovered The profit of alkylation units has slightly improved but remains poor The profit of MTBE production has fluctuated, and the export profit is still good The arrival volume has increased, the external release has decreased, the factory inventory has slightly accumulated, and the port inventory has increased The PDH operating rate is 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week [1] - Overall, the chemical industry in China is relatively strong, and the civil demand has increased, but more arrivals are expected in December The Middle - Eastern supply is tight, but the market may tend to wait and see as the CP official price announcement approaches Attention should also be paid to weather and oil price conditions [1] Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Daily Changes - On Friday, for civil - use LPG, the price in East China is 4323 (+13), in Shandong is 4460 (+10), and in South China is 4360 (+25) The price of ether - post - carbon - four is 4490 (+10) The lowest delivery location is East China, with a basis of -43 (-57), and the spread between January and February contracts is 109 (-19) FEI is 537 (+10) USD/ton The official CP prices for December have been released, with propane and butane at 495/485 (+20/+25) [1] Weekly Views - The PG futures prices have declined, with a decrease in the basis and the spread between January and February contracts The domestic civil - use LPG prices have dropped, the cheapest deliverable has decreased in price, and the propane - civil LPG price difference has shrunk The number of warehouse receipts has decreased [1] - Overseas paper prices have fallen, contract spreads have strengthened, and the oil - gas price ratio in North Asia and North America has changed little The spreads of domestic PG - CP and PG - FEI have changed, and the discounts in different regions have different trends The freight rates have slightly decreased, and the FEI - MOPJ spread has narrowed [1] - The profits of some chemical production processes have shown different trends, with the arrival volume increasing, external release decreasing, and inventory accumulating in factories and ports The PDH operating rate has decreased, and a PDH unit is expected to restart next week [1] - The domestic chemical industry is relatively stable, civil demand has increased, but more arrivals are expected in December The Middle - Eastern supply is tight, and the market may wait and see before the CP official price announcement Attention should also be paid to weather and oil prices [1]
《农产品》日报-20251128
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 02:25
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Oils and Fats - Palm oil: As the end of the month approaches, the market focuses on export and production data, with potential downside risks. Dalian palm oil futures may continue to rise and could break through the 8,600 yuan resistance [1]. - Soybean oil: Chinese purchases of US soybeans boost CBOT soybeans, but domestic supply is ample and demand is weak, with inventory likely to increase and prices unable to rise in the short term [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - The market supply is accelerating, and although southwest curing has started, demand support is limited. Pig prices are expected to remain weak and volatile, and the strategy of inter - month reverse spreads can be continued [3]. Meal Products - The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern. With the one - price rising with the market and the basis slightly falling, the market is unlikely to see a continuous upward trend, and there is a risk of a decline after short - term chasing [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - In the short term, the market remains firm due to farmers' reluctance to sell, but there is still a large amount of grain to be sold, limiting price increases. Attention should be paid to the pace of corn supply and market sentiment [7]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar is expected to consolidate around 14 cents per pound. With new sugar from Guangxi on the market, the market is expected to remain weak and bottom - oscillating this week [11]. Cotton - ICE US cotton futures were closed for the US Thanksgiving holiday. Domestically, the high output of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/26 season creates hedging pressure, but the firm basis and resilient demand support prices, so short - term prices may oscillate within a range [13]. Eggs - Egg prices have fallen below the feed cost line, and with reduced inventory at all levels and recovering demand, futures prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [15]. Key Points by Product Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On November 27, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,560 yuan, up 1.18% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,224 yuan, up 0.91%; the basis of Y2601 was 336 yuan, up 8.39%; the warehouse receipts decreased by 34.03% [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8,390 yuan, up 1.21%; the futures price of P2601 was 8,558 yuan, up 1.04%; the basis of P2601 was - 138 yuan, up 8.00%; the import profit in Guangzhou Port in January increased by 14.08% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 10,110 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of OI601 was 9,772 yuan, down 0.48%; the basis of OI601 was 338 yuan, up 16.15% [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The basis of the main contract was - 225 yuan/ton, down 60.71%; the price of LH2605 was 11,990 yuan, down 0.58%; the price of LH2601 was 11,585 yuan, up 0.39% [3]. - **Spot**: Prices in various regions showed mixed trends, with slaughter volume increasing by 0.47% daily, and most breeding profits decreasing [3]. Meal Products - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,030 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of M2601 was 3,055 yuan, up 1.33%; the basis of M2601 was - 25 yuan, down 266.67% [6]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,470 yuan, up 1.23%; the futures price of RM2601 was 2,469 yuan, up 1.23%; the basis of RM2601 was unchanged [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of C2601 was 2,243 yuan, up 0.36%; the basis decreased by 14.55%; the import profit increased by 0.93%; the number of trucks at Shandong deep - processing plants decreased by 32.43% [7]. - **Corn starch**: The price of CS2601 was 2,572 yuan, up 0.82%; the basis decreased by 53.85%; the starch - corn 01 spread increased by 4.11% [7]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of SR2601 was 5,403 yuan, up 0.45%; the price of SR2605 was 5,322 yuan, up 0.30%; ICE raw sugar rose 1.48% [11]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning was 5,450 yuan, unchanged; the basis decreased; the import volume increased by 37.50% [11]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of CF2605 was 13,605 yuan, up 0.15%; the price of CF2601 was 13,640 yuan, up 0.11%; ICE US cotton rose 0.59% [13]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B grade cotton rose 0.69%; the commercial inventory increased by 24.2% [13]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of JD12 was 2,947 yuan/500KG, up 0.96%; the price of JD01 was 3,282 yuan/500KG, up 1.77% [15]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price rose 1.20%; the egg - to - feed ratio decreased by 3.33%; the breeding profit decreased by 18.60% [15].