Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments surrounding Pop Mart, highlighting significant shareholder sell-offs and the company's impressive growth trajectory, particularly in overseas markets, while also raising concerns about potential valuation bubbles and future growth sustainability [2][6][12]. Group 1: Shareholder Actions - Early investor Fengqiao Capital has completely liquidated its holdings in Pop Mart, selling approximately 11.91 million shares for a total of 2.264 billion HKD, equivalent to about 2.11 billion RMB [2]. - Prior to this, Fengqiao Capital held 0.9% of Pop Mart's shares, making it the seventh-largest shareholder [4]. - The founder of Pop Mart, Wang Ning, also reduced his stake by selling 21.7 million shares at an average price of 71.98 HKD, cashing out over 1.56 billion HKD [7]. Group 2: Company Performance - Pop Mart's stock has surged over 1100% since the beginning of 2024, establishing itself as a top-performing stock in the Hong Kong market, although its dynamic price-to-earnings ratio has reached 76 times [6]. - The company reported a revenue of 13.04 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 106.9%, with adjusted net profit rising by 185.9% to 3.4 billion RMB [10]. - The overseas market has been a significant growth driver, with revenue from international operations increasing by 375.2%, contributing nearly 40% to total revenue [10]. Group 3: Market Strategy and Future Outlook - Pop Mart's international expansion strategy has shown promising results, with overseas revenue reaching 3.76 billion RMB in the first half of 2023, a 139.8% increase year-on-year [10]. - The company has expanded its business to nearly 100 countries and regions since its internationalization began in 2018 [13]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Nomura have raised their earnings forecasts for Pop Mart, citing strong sales momentum and a robust IP ecosystem, while also adjusting target prices upward [14][15]. Group 4: Concerns and Risks - Despite the impressive growth, there are concerns about the sustainability of Pop Mart's overseas success and the potential for valuation bubbles, especially given the significant shareholder sell-offs [12][16]. - The article emphasizes the need to be cautious about the company's high valuation and the risks associated with potential declines in growth rates, which could lead to significant stock price volatility [16].

Core Viewpoint - Shiji Information plans to acquire 13.50% of Shenzhen Sihon Software Co., Ltd. through a share issuance, which may indicate a continuation of high premium pricing based on historical acquisition patterns [1][2] Group 1: Company Overview - Shenzhen Sihon Software, established in April 2004, specializes in digital solutions for the retail industry, offering products such as smart retail, SaaS, digital operations, and Sihon Pay [1] - In 2023, Sihon Software attempted an IPO on the Beijing Stock Exchange but later terminated it [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, Sihon Software reported a 10.79% year-on-year decline in revenue and a 12.38% decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders [1] - As of September 2024, Shiji Information's goodwill reached 1.194 billion yuan, accounting for 12.5% of total assets, primarily from multiple acquisitions [1] Group 3: Acquisition Context - Historical acquisitions by Shiji Information, such as those of Zhongdian Devices, showed significant premiums due to shareholder differences, suggesting a potential for high premium pricing in the current acquisition [1] - The acquisition of Sihon Software may have limited synergy with Shiji Information's main hotel information business, as evidenced by past integration challenges faced by Alibaba Group with Shiji's retail business [2] Group 4: Financial Risks - In 2019, Shiji Information did not recognize impairment for goodwill related to loss-making subsidiaries, raising concerns about aggressive accounting practices [2] - As of Q3 2024, Shiji Information's cash reserves decreased by 276 million yuan, and while the acquisition will not directly consume cash, it may dilute earnings per share [2]

与此相呼应的是，在递交招股书后的第三天，也就是4月18日，遇见小面公关总监在社交媒体上发布了一系列动态，随后引发广泛关注。4月18日，该总监 首次发声，透露自己在孩子生病且不在公司的情况下，突然收到公司的裁员通知，且通知发给了其家人而非联系本人。 据了解，该总监自1月入职遇见小面，收到解除劳动关系通知时仍处于试用期。根据通知说明，在其离职时，遇见小面会正常为其结算工资和发薪，且参 照法定标准给予离职赔偿。截至发稿，针对该事件，遇见小面暂无官方回应。 而在此之前，遇见小面已经长跑11年，三百多家门店主要集中在广东市场，品牌走过了O2O和互联网高峰时代，2021年估值逼近30亿元，却带着行业彼时 不可遏制的"泡沫"。 即使从现在的视角看，遇见小面也撑不起30亿元估值。进一步来说，挤掉估值泡沫，或是遇见小面冲击IPO的第一课。 那么，这个刚刚走到IPO阶段的遇见小面，在快速斩掉公关总监后，能够顺利登录资本市场么？ 作者/壹览商业 响马 很少有人会料到，川渝街头再寻常不过的重庆小面会激发创业热情，落地、发展成连锁餐饮品牌，并摇身一变，向"中式面馆第一股"发起冲锋。 这正是遇见小面的经历。 去年，该品牌成立十周年时，创 ...

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长按即可免费加入哦 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：16发财油菜君 来源：雪球 一 、 科技 " 七姐妹 " 估值泡沫与交易拥堵风险 估值水平创历史新高 2025年初 ， 美股整体前瞻市盈率及中位数均升至过去22年 （ 除疫情泡沫期外 ） 的最高水平 ， 市场乐观情绪达到极端状态 。 尤其是 " 七姐妹 " （ 苹果 、 微软 、 亚马逊 、 英伟达等 ） 的市 值占美国GDP比重接近60% ， 远超合理区间 ， 形成显著的估值泡沫 。 这种高估值在美国利率较 高时更显脆弱 ， 形成 " 泡沫易被戳破 " 的市场环境 。 三 、 特朗普政策反复放大市场不确定性 关税与产业政策扰动 交易拥堵与资金集中风险 美国家庭部门直接和间接配置于股票的金融资产比例高达43.4% ， 创历史新高 ， 市场风险承受 能力已达极限 。 资金过度集中于科技巨头 ， 导致市场流动性高度依赖少数公司的表现 。 一旦出 现负面冲击 （ 如DeepSeek的技术突破 ） ， 资金踩踏式撤离将加剧波动 。 二 、 DeepSeek打破AI垄断 ， 估值溢价逻辑崩塌 技术突破颠覆行业 ...