恒生指数假期里大涨了2.76%，更能反映中概科技股情绪的纳斯达克中国金龙指数更是猛冲了4.38%。 咱们散户都知道，放量上涨是好事，放巨量暴涨更是牛市的冲锋号。 但去年最后一个交易日，沪深两 市一口气爆出了3.45万亿的历史级天量，指数却没像很多人想象的那样一飞冲天，反而在3968点附近不 紧不慢地横盘整理了整整十天。 这感觉就像一场盛大的宴席已经备好，宾朋满座，锣鼓喧天，可主人 就是迟迟不宣布开席。 这种"该涨不涨"的诡异平静，比暴跌更让人心慌，也藏着更强烈的信号——要么是憋着惊天动地的大 招，要么就是暗地里进行着决定性的筹码交换。 现在，几乎所有目光都死死盯住了1月5日到6日这两 天，因为种种迹象表明，这场等待已久的"宴席"，主菜很可能就要在这48小时内端上桌了。 这个信号之所以关键，是因为它得到了外围市场的强力"应援"。 元旦假期，当A股休市的时候，隔壁的港股和海外中概股已经先嗨起来了。 光有情绪还不够，真金白银的动向才是硬道理。 目前市场里的钱，处于一种既充沛又克制状态。 充沛 在于，除了那天的天量，像北向资金这种"聪明钱"已经在持续流入，两融余额也维持在高位，说明场内 杠杆资金还在活跃。 克制在于， ...

Market Overview - On the first trading day of 2026, Hong Kong stocks experienced a strong opening, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 700 points, an increase of 2.76%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 4% [1] - The total net inflow into Hong Kong stocks through the Stock Connect in 2025 reached 1.406 trillion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 74%, indicating that domestic capital has become a stabilizing force in the market [5] Stock Performance - The debut of Wallen Technology, the first GPU stock in Hong Kong, saw its share price surge nearly 120% at one point, closing with a gain of over 75%, bringing its total market capitalization to 82.6 billion HKD [2] - Semiconductor stocks led the gains, with Hua Hong Semiconductor rising over 9% and SMIC increasing more than 5% [2] - Baidu Group saw a significant increase of over 9%, New Oriental rose over 7%, and NetEase increased by over 6%, while Alibaba and Tencent both gained over 4% [2][3] Sector Highlights - The photovoltaic solar sector saw widespread gains, with GCL-Poly Energy rising nearly 21% and GCL-Technology increasing by nearly 5% [4] - Precious metals continued to rise, with spot silver and New York silver both increasing by 4%, and spot gold rising by 1.5% [7] Future Outlook - According to Industrial Securities, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its bullish trend in 2026, with a focus on "growth momentum and value reconstruction dividends" [5] - The Hang Seng Tech Index's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 24 times, significantly lower than the Nasdaq 100's 46 times, indicating a valuation gap [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to complete a remarkable year in 2025, with various funds actively participating in sectors such as innovative drugs, internet, new consumption, and technology, contributing to a strong performance of the Hang Seng Index [1] Group 1: Market Trends and Fund Flows - The "Northbound capital flow" has significantly attracted investments, with a record net inflow of nearly 1.3 trillion RMB into the Hong Kong stock market this year, marking a historical high [2] - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index have risen by 28.42% and 23.88% respectively, representing one of the highest levels in the past decade [2] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the public fund investment in Hong Kong stocks reached 1.33 trillion RMB, with passive funds for the first time surpassing active funds in market share [2] Group 2: Fund Performance and Outlook - Funds focused on Hong Kong stocks have yielded substantial returns, with an average return of 28.46% for actively managed equity funds containing "Hong Kong Stock Connect" in their names, and nearly half of these funds seeing net asset value increases exceeding 30% [3] - Fund managers are optimistic about the continuation of net inflows from southbound capital into the Hong Kong market in 2026, citing favorable conditions in terms of fundamentals, valuations, and liquidity [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Focus Areas - Fund managers are particularly interested in sectors such as AI, internet, new consumption, and resource products for 2026, highlighting the attractiveness of technology stocks, especially in AI applications [7] - The focus on innovative drugs is driven by the expansion of business development overseas and supportive policies, while traditional consumption remains appealing due to attractive valuations [7] - Investment strategies include a focus on cyclical assets, innovative-sensitive assets, and upstream resource opportunities in the context of global inflation [8]

今天（11月21日）上午，不论A股还是港股，都遭遇了比较大幅度的回撤。沪指一度跌了近90点，港股 跌得更凶，尤其恒生科技指数，跌幅一度超过3%。 如果从10月初的高点算起，恒生科技指数累计最大跌幅达到了20%。这可以说是超跌的市况了，下周能 不能反弹，我不敢下定论，但现在的市场情绪，已经达到或接近冰点。 简单分析一下，为什么港股最近跌那么厉害。 这一波回落，大致分为三个阶段。 打开百度APP畅享高清图片 第一阶段，从10月2日阶段高点，快速下跌到10月17日，恒生科技指数的阶段跌幅约为15%。这一波回 落，主要是前期市场情绪高涨之后技术修复。当然，期间肯定有外部环境因素在催化，但市场层面，我 认为还是正常的获利回吐。 第二阶段，是10月18日到11月13日，这是一个反复震荡，反复确认支撑位的筑底过程。 还有另一部分投资者，前期的仓位本来就不重，他们还有多余的"子弹"，那么此时的港股，或许已经等 到了抄底的机会。而且现阶段，抄底的资金并不少。 谁在抄底？首先是南向资金。刚刚说的第三阶段的杀跌过程中，南向资金每天都在大规模净买入港股。 其中，11月14日净买入128亿港元，昨天净买入近160亿港元。这些都是真金白 ...

Group 1 - The core driving factors for the continuous growth of Hong Kong stock funds are identified as the "valuation gap" effect, structural advantages, and the increasing attractiveness of Chinese assets [2][3] - The Hang Seng Index's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 11.97 times, significantly lower than major global indices like Germany's DAX (18.44 times) and the UK's FTSE 100 (20.23 times), indicating a favorable valuation for investors [2] - The dividend yield of Hong Kong stocks stands at 3.05%, which is more attractive compared to the S&P 500's 1.11%, further enhancing the appeal of Hong Kong stocks [2] Group 2 - Hong Kong's stock market offers a dual allocation strategy, catering to both defensive and growth needs, with blue-chip stocks providing around 6% dividend yield for defensive positioning and sectors like technology, biomedicine, and new consumption representing growth opportunities [2][3] - The market is seen as a key platform for high-quality Chinese enterprises, attracting both domestic and foreign investments, especially as China's economy recovers and the high-tech sector continues to innovate [2][3] - Key investment areas in the Hong Kong market include high-dividend stocks, technology internet, biomedicine, and new consumption, which are gaining attention from investors seeking stable returns and growth potential [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in the Chinese liquor industry, particularly focusing on the performance of major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, highlighting the challenges and potential investment opportunities within the sector [4][11][12]. Industry Overview - As of Q3 2025, the liquor industry experienced a revenue decline of 6%, with a more pronounced drop of 13% when excluding Moutai. Net profit also fell by 7%, with a 18% decline when excluding Moutai [4]. - The industry is entering its first year of performance decline since the peak in July 2021, with Q3 2025 showing a 19% revenue drop and a 22% net profit decline [4][5]. Company Performance - Moutai's revenue growth was 15.71% in 2024, but it dropped to 0.56% in Q3 2025. In contrast, Wuliangye's revenue growth fell sharply to -52.66% in Q3 2025 [5]. - The financial data indicates that the liquor industry is undergoing a significant "performance washout," marking a shift from growth to a more cyclical and dividend-focused investment approach [11][12]. Market Sentiment - Despite the poor performance of Wuliangye's Q3 report, the stock price did not react negatively, suggesting that the market still favors the liquor sector, viewing the report as a sign of proactive adjustments by companies [6]. - Investors are increasingly looking at the liquor sector as a "valuation pit" with high safety margins, especially after a prolonged period of declining valuations [7]. Pricing and Inventory Dynamics - The article notes that the pricing of high-end liquor products has been under pressure, with Moutai's price dropping by approximately 600 yuan annually for two consecutive years [19]. - Inventory levels are not significantly rising, but the structure and distribution of inventory are concerning, as sluggish sales hinder effective turnover [16][17]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to remain in a downward cycle, with no clear bottom in sight. The resilience of distribution channels is still present, but the adjustment period may be longer than anticipated [22][23]. - The overall market is experiencing a downward shift in price bands, with the main consumption range moving downwards, indicating a contraction in market size [23].

最近刷到广东那位兄弟聊潮汕生意口诀，"再穷不打工，宁可睡地板也要当老板"，看完我这做了20年财经记者、专做中长线的投资者，真是越品越有味道！ 不是说打工不好，是这股子潮汕人的生意智慧，跟我多年投资的门道简直不谋而合。 潮汕人说"算盘要打穿，人情要留香"，投资里也是这个理。中长线不是瞎捂股，得把行业逻辑、企业护城河算透，就像他们做生意看重回头客，投资也要给 优质企业成长的时间，别被短期涨跌带偏。"老街开新铺，新街开老铺"，本质就是不追热门、找估值洼地，这跟我一直强调的"冷门赛道挖真金"完全契合。 20年财经记者生涯，见多了追涨杀跌的亏家，也见证了不少守得住耐心的赢家。其实潮汕生意经和中长线投资的核心都一样：耐住性子、找对逻辑、稳扎稳 打。跟着帮主郑重，咱们不贪快钱，只赚看得懂、拿得住的稳当收益。 前两年我去潮汕采访，跟一位开特产铺的老板喝茶，他在小县城开了家挺大的店，反而在广州深圳没布局。我问他为啥反着来，他笑着说"小地方开大店， 竞争少还能攒住老客"，这话一下戳中我了。就像我当年盯新能源赛道，别人都扎堆追短线热点，我偏沉下心研究行业政策和企业技术壁垒，熬了三年才等 到真正的爆发期，这不就是生意经里的"不跟风、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among institutions regarding the food and beverage sector is accelerating, as it becomes a core focus for reallocating investments due to its low valuation and high safety margin in the context of high-tech stock valuations and increasing differentiation in the new energy sector [1] Market Performance - On November 10, the food and beverage sector experienced a significant surge, supported by a recent explosion in trading volume for the food and beverage ETF (515170), indicating a strong willingness of institutional funds to enter the market [1] Macro Support - The food and beverage sector is benefiting from three favorable factors: stabilization of prices, a capital dividend from market rotation, and its own valuation advantages, marking the opening of an investment window that is expected to become a core investment theme in A-shares [1] ETF Overview - The food and beverage ETF (515170) tracks the CSI segmented food and beverage industry theme index, focusing on high-barrier and resilient sectors such as liquor, beverages, dairy products, and seasoning [1] - The top ten constituent stocks include major brands like "Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe," providing investors with a convenient way to access core assets in the "food and beverage sector" with lower investment thresholds compared to individual stocks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Guosen Securities highlights an extreme divergence between "old" and "new" assets in the market, emphasizing that high growth does not necessarily equate to high investment returns, and that finding fundamentally sound valuation opportunities can lead to significant returns [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Divergence - Since 2025, "small new stocks" have significantly outperformed "old stocks," with the "small new stock" portfolio rising by 183.8% compared to just 3.9% for "old stocks" [2]. - From April 7, 2025, "small new stocks" surged over 200%, while "old stocks" only increased by 13.6% [2]. - The "small new ETF" has risen by 53.1% since 2025, while the "old ETF" has only seen a 13.1% increase [2]. Group 2: Valuation and Market Activity - As of October 24, the PE ratio for "small new" sectors like electronics and computing is at the 99th percentile since 2019, while "old" sectors like real estate and liquor are at the 56th percentile [8]. - The trading volume for "small new" sectors has increased to 33%, while "old" sectors have dropped to below 2.8%, indicating a significant divergence in market activity [8]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The report stresses the importance of not only selecting high-quality stocks ("buy good") but also ensuring they are purchased at favorable valuations ("buy well") to achieve high returns [11]. - Historical examples illustrate that higher growth does not guarantee better returns, as seen in the comparison between IBM and New Jersey Standard Oil from 1950 to 2003 [11][12]. - The banking sector has shown resilience, with a decline of only 3.9% compared to a 31.1% drop in the overall market, highlighting the potential for finding undervalued stocks with solid fundamentals [15]. Group 4: Market Trends and Seasonal Effects - The current market is characterized by a "small new stock" era, but there are seasonal opportunities for "old stocks," particularly in real estate, liquor, and brokerage sectors [20][29]. - Historical bull markets have shown that each cycle has a leading sector that aligns with prevailing economic trends, with AI and technology being the current focus [21]. - Seasonal effects suggest that value sectors may outperform in the fourth quarter, with historical data indicating a 64% success rate for value over growth during this period [23].

Core Viewpoint - The valuation attractiveness of the Hong Kong technology sector is particularly prominent, exhibiting significant "valuation pit" characteristics [1] Valuation Comparison - As of October 27, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index is approximately 26.58 times, compared to 43.99 times for the mainland ChiNext Index, indicating a valuation discount of about 40% for the Hong Kong technology sector [1] - The valuation levels of Hong Kong technology-related indices are also significantly lower than those of the US S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, with the Nasdaq experiencing high valuations driven by the AI boom [1] Market Trends - The AH share premium index, which measures the price difference between A-shares and H-shares, has decreased from about 40% at the beginning of the year to the current range of 20%, indicating that the value of Hong Kong stocks is being rediscovered and revalued by the market [1] - This convergence trend suggests that the Hong Kong technology sector is at a critical stage of value reassessment, presenting a good opportunity for rational long-term investors to strategically allocate resources in this evident "valuation pit" [1] Relevant ETFs - Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101) covers the entire technology industry chain [1] - Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) focuses on leading internet companies [1]