期指：静待走稳 2025 年 8 月 4 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 金 融 期 货 研 究 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 4054.93 | ↓0.51 | | 3596.9 | | | | | | IF2508 | 4042.8 | ↓0.52 | -12.13 | 341.1 | 28026 | ↓9717 | 44554 | ↓76 | | IF2509 | 4029.6 | ↓0.52 | -25.33 | 690.2 | 56881 | ↓34566 | 151416 | ↓6186 | | IF2512 | 3997.2 | ↓0.48 | -57.7 ...

"今年上半年，连云港的重大项目无论是开工率还是投资完成率等情况，都优于往年。"连云港市发 改委重大项目办公室相关负责人说，数据显示，上半年，连云港列省重大项目开工率85.7%，517个市 级重点产业项目完成投资860.7亿元，均超序时进度。"其中工业项目占387个，集中于先进制造业、新 能源、新材料等，充分体现了连云港'工业立市、产业强市'的核心战略。" 7月23日，在连云港徐圩新区盛虹化工新材料项目厂区内，EVA装置平稳运转，米粒般大小的半透 明EVA颗粒顺着管道涌入自动灌装设备，随后被封装进白色包装袋中，即将发往国内各大光伏组件厂， 还有部分产品将销往东南亚地区。 目前，这个省重大项目已实现部分建成投产，标志着连云港在新材料领域再添"超级引擎"。"现在 每月产能达6万吨，所有产品还没下线就被预订一空。"中控室里，盛虹石化产业集团聚合物事业部总经 理张庆雨指着屏幕上跳动的数据介绍。 作为国内最早在管式工艺上开发光伏用EVA产品的企业，盛虹打破了光伏级EVA的国外垄断，创造 了行业项目投产达效速度的新标杆——原计划去年12月投产的第一条线提前至去年10月，计划今年5月 投产的生产线2月就已运行，计划在今年9月 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a decline on August 1, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.19% to 3566.55 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.15%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.16% [1][2] - The total trading volume for A-shares reached 1.01 trillion yuan [1] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China conducted a 126 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.40% on August 1, fully subscribing to the 126 billion yuan offered [3] Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice regarding the 2025 annual special energy conservation inspection tasks for the polysilicon industry, requiring local departments to report results by September 30 [3] - The innovative drug sector continues to show strength, while the photovoltaic industry chain is experiencing fluctuations [3] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included BC technology batteries with an average increase of 2.23%, while sectors like gaming and digital currency saw declines [4] - BC technology batteries have achieved an average conversion efficiency of over 27%, with mainstream double-sided glass components reaching a power output of 665W, showing significant advantages over traditional components [4] Company Insights 1. **Jiejia Weichuang**: As a leading player in photovoltaic equipment, the company is well-positioned to benefit from industry changes and is expanding into semiconductor and lithium battery equipment, ensuring long-term performance [8] 2. **Haiyou New Materials**: The company has made significant progress in the industrialization of its dimming film for automotive applications, which is expected to enhance revenue and profitability [8] 3. **Aotwei**: As a leader in photovoltaic equipment, Aotwei has strong technical reserves and is expected to benefit from future technological upgrades and market expansion [8] 4. **Aixu Co., Ltd.**: As a leader in BC technology, the company is poised for growth through technology premiums and expansion into high-value overseas markets [8]

消息面上，7月25日工信部与国家能源局在行业会议上提出推动光伏落后产能有序退出，强化技术 创新与公平竞争，引导行业高质量发展。 华创证券指出，6月国内新增光伏装机14.36GW，同比-38%，环比-85%，主要系"531"政策抢装潮 结束及部分项目因收益率不明推迟建设，但全年装机仍有望延续增长，预计2025年国内、全球装机分别 达270-300GW、570-630GW。多晶硅能耗标准拟大幅提升，修订后1级标准为≤5kgce/kg，目前仅颗粒硅 企业达标，若实施将限制新建扩建产能，但存量企业多数符合3级标准（≤7.5kgce/kg）。光伏玻璃环节 因供应过剩开启减产，库存周环比下降9.1%，叠加主材涨价带动组件囤货需求，库存由增转降。近期 反内卷政策信号密集释放，行业亏损状态下光伏玻璃价格或上调至成本价附近，推动盈利修复。产业链 价格方面，硅料、硅片及电池片价格环比上涨，组件及辅材价格持稳。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的 ...

1日早盘，沪指盘中窄幅震荡，深证成指、创业板指回落翻绿，场内近3000股飘红。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 盘面上看，旅游、石油、半导体等板块走低，物流板块拉升，医药、环保、农业等板块上扬，辅助生 殖、创新药、光伏产业链股活跃。 东莞证券表示，连续反弹后，沪指近期在3600点上方遇阻，短线存在一定的抛压释放，特别是创业板指 收出两连阴，显示短期休整压力加大，而从统计局最新公布的PMI数据来看，7月份经济数据或有所走 弱，也对基本面带来一定压制，短线需要注意市场的震荡反复。展望中期，7月底政治局会议定调偏积 极，在外部经贸摩擦缓和预期、国内稳增长政策持续发力以及流动性环境维持合理充裕的多重因素驱动 下，中期市场仍将保持稳定。 截至午间收盘，沪指跌0.19%报3566.55点，深证成指跌0.15%，创业板指跌0.16%，科创50指数跌 0.84%，沪深北三市合计成交10082亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tongwei Co., Ltd. is experiencing significant financial challenges, with a projected loss of 4.9 billion to 5.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking one of the largest losses among publicly listed companies that have disclosed earnings forecasts [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Tongwei Co., Ltd. operates in two main sectors: photovoltaic renewable energy and agriculture, being a leading manufacturer of solar cells and modules globally [1] - The company has a comprehensive business model covering the entire photovoltaic industry chain from upstream polysilicon to downstream power plant construction, alongside a complete agricultural industry chain layout [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - As of July 31, 2025, Tongwei's stock price closed at 20.43 yuan, down 6.50% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 3.152 billion yuan [1] - The stock reached a low of 20.01 yuan during the trading session, with a price fluctuation of 6.27% [1] - The company's current price-to-earnings ratio stands at -8.87, and the price-to-book ratio is 2.07, with a total market capitalization of 91.976 billion yuan [1] - On July 31, there was a net outflow of 272 million yuan in principal funds, accounting for 0.3% of the circulating market value [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in polysilicon prices is attributed to rising downstream silicon wafer prices and reduced inventory pressure among wafer manufacturers, leading to a slight price increase in polysilicon materials [1][2] Polysilicon Market - The average transaction price for N-type polysilicon is 47,100 yuan/ton, up 0.64% week-on-week, while N-type granular silicon averages 44,300 yuan/ton, up 0.68% week-on-week [1] - From January to July, the cumulative polysilicon production is 704,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 41.5% [1] - The expected domestic polysilicon production for August is around 125,000 tons [1] - The integration of polysilicon production capacity is crucial for maintaining a balance in supply and demand, with a target capacity reduction to approximately 2.3 million tons per year [1] Silicon Wafer Market - The average price of silicon wafers has continued to rise, with 183RN single crystal wafers averaging 1.20 yuan/piece (up 9.09%), 210RN at 1.35 yuan/piece (up 8.00%), and 210N at 1.55 yuan/piece (up 7.64%) [2] - The increase in wafer prices is driven by rising raw material costs and an increase in downstream purchasing orders [2] Market Outlook - The market sentiment is optimistic due to effective policy implementation and industry self-discipline, with strong price support from silicon wafer manufacturers [3] - The future price trends will depend on the downstream market's acceptance of price increases, as current price rises are based on expectations and short-term policy effects [3] - Battery cell prices have also increased, with 183N averaging 0.29 yuan/W and both 210RN and 210N at 0.285 yuan/W, reflecting a rise of 5.6% to 7.4% [3] Component Market - The demand for components is expected to recover slightly as domestic orders increase, with manufacturers responding to supply chain fluctuations and policy adjustments [4][5] - The current transaction prices for TOPCon components range from 0.68 yuan/W to 0.72 yuan/W, although the transaction volume remains low [5]

Group 1: Industry Overview - In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 14.36 GW, representing a year-on-year decrease of 38% and a month-on-month decrease of 85% [1] - As of the end of June, the total installed power generation capacity in the country was 3.65 billion kW, with solar power capacity at 1.1 billion kW, showing a year-on-year growth of 54.2% [1] - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased by 162 hours compared to the same period last year, totaling 1504 hours [1] Group 2: Company Developments - Canadian Solar has established a silicon company to enhance its vertical integration and cost control in the photovoltaic industry [2] - The new company, Uratqi Haoxi Silicon Industry Co., Ltd., was registered on June 17 with a capital of 1 million yuan and is fully controlled by Canadian Solar [2] - Highview Solar has commenced mass production of its 2 GW BC module project, achieving an efficiency of 24.6% [3] - The BC modules utilize cells from Aiko Solar and feature proprietary packaging technology to enhance efficiency and durability [3] - Highview Solar plans to build an additional 1 GW BC module production line in Yibin, Sichuan, which has completed environmental assessment [3] Group 3: Investment Decisions - Sichuan Hebang Biotechnology Co., Ltd. has decided to suspend further investment in its 10 GW N-type ultra-high-efficiency monocrystalline silicon wafer project due to market conditions [4][5] - The company has already invested approximately 340 million yuan into its subsidiary, Anhui Fuxing New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., which has established a production capacity of about 1.5 GW N-type wafers [5] - The decision to halt additional investment is based on price fluctuations in the silicon wafer industry and a temporary mismatch in overall photovoltaic market capacity [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the photovoltaic industry is experiencing price increases in upstream silicon materials, which is driving up the prices of silicon wafers and battery cells, indicating potential short-term rebound in component prices [1] - BC batteries are expected to achieve premium pricing due to their high efficiency, which will enhance corporate profitability [1] - The offshore wind power sector is benefiting from the UK easing auction entry requirements and extending contract terms, which will accelerate global offshore wind project implementation, particularly benefiting domestic leading companies from increased overseas orders [1] Group 2 - The new energy vehicle market is entering a deep penetration phase, with high cost-performance models driving sales growth, and the introduction of new technologies such as fast charging and solid-state batteries injecting vitality into the industry [1] - In the energy storage sector, Gansu has introduced capacity pricing policies to optimize the profitability of long-duration energy storage projects, which have advantages in renewable energy consumption [1] - The demand for AI computing power is driving the need for high power density server power supplies and liquid cooling systems, while the ongoing construction of ultra-high voltage projects provides performance support for equipment manufacturers [1] Group 3 - The Mechanical ETF (516960) tracks a segmented mechanical index (000812) compiled by China Securities Index Co., which selects listed companies in engineering machinery and industrial robotics from the A-share market to reflect the overall performance of high-end manufacturing and automation industries [1] - The index constituents exhibit high growth potential and technological leadership, reflecting the development trend of China's manufacturing upgrade and transformation, with strong attributes of technological innovation [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 21, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, with the main 2509 contract closing at 9,260 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 4.99%, and the position decreased by 3,956 lots to 383,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 9,297 yuan/ton, up 186 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rose to 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 185 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated higher, with the main 2509 contract closing at 45,850 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 3.36%, and the position increased by 16,518 lots to 172,000 lots. The price of N-type polysilicon refeed material rose to 45,550 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material rose to 45,500 yuan/ton, with the spot discount widening to 385 yuan/ton [2]. - Large industrial silicon manufacturers have not yet resumed production. The increase in the southwest is less than the decrease in the northwest. After the cancellation of the electricity price subsidy in Xinjiang, the cost support strengthening and the resumption of production expectation have entered a game, returning to the range - oscillation mode, with the upper limit being the position where the capacity enters the market after the profit in the southwest is repaired. The photovoltaic industry chain is boosted by the anti - involution policy, but there is no actual improvement in supply and demand. The bulls trade on the confidence that if the spot price does not fall, the futures price will not fall, and the overall support of the disk is relatively strong. After both industrial silicon and polysilicon rose to high levels, large - scale hedging positions entered the market, and there were cases where polysilicon long positions left the market with profits. The margin of polysilicon has been increased, further increasing the difficulty of chasing the rise. Attention should be paid to the PS/SI ratio and the policy implementation rhythm to see if there will be a new wave of upward pull after the callback [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,820 yuan/ton on July 18 to 9,110 yuan/ton on July 21, an increase of 290 yuan/ton. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon spot also generally increased, with the current lowest deliverable price rising from 8,750 yuan/ton to 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from - 90 yuan/ton to - 185 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 43,850 yuan/ton on July 18 to 45,660 yuan/ton on July 21, an increase of 1,810 yuan/ton. The price of N - type granular silicon material increased by 9,000 yuan/ton, and the price of P - type polysilicon dense material and refeed material also increased by 3,500 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price rose from 43,500 yuan/ton to 45,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from - 350 yuan/ton to - 385 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The spot prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, 107 glue, and dimethyl silicone oil all increased, with increases of 800 yuan/ton, 700 yuan/ton, 500 yuan/ton, and 2,500 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 252, the industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 1,400 tons, the polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the polysilicon social inventory decreased by 0.5 tons [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10] 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][15][17] 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [20][23] 3.2.4 Cost - profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, industrial silicon weekly cost - profit, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [26][28][35] 3.3 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures Research Institute includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research and new energy industry chain tracking [37][38]