Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future investment returns [4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 40.509 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.51%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -4.955 billion yuan, indicating an expanded loss compared to the previous year [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 24.575 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.44%, with a net profit of -2.363 billion yuan, showing a narrowing loss compared to the previous quarter [1]. - The company holds a global market share of approximately 30% in polysilicon sales, maintaining its industry-leading position, with a sales volume of 161,300 tons in H1 2025 [2]. - The company continues to lead in battery sales with 49.89 GW sold in H1 2025, and is advancing in various battery technologies, including TOPCon and HJT [3]. - Component sales in overseas markets have shown rapid growth, with 24.52 GW sold in H1 2025, and a significant reduction in non-battery costs by 11% year-on-year [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 139.104 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected decline to 91.994 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a slight recovery to 91.133 billion yuan in 2025E [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be -3.034 billion yuan in 2025E, with a gradual recovery to 4.942 billion yuan by 2027E [5]. Market Position - The company maintains a leading position in the polysilicon market with a 30% global market share and a 90% shipment ratio of N-type products [2]. - In the battery segment, the company continues to lead globally with 49.89 GW sold in H1 2025, showcasing advancements in technology and efficiency [3]. Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced its non-battery costs by 11% year-on-year, contributing to improved profitability despite overall revenue declines [4]. - Operating expenses have decreased by 31% year-on-year, indicating effective cost management strategies [4]. Future Outlook - The report projects a recovery in net profit starting in 2026, with expected profits of 1.93 billion yuan and 4.94 billion yuan in 2027 [5]. - The company is expected to enhance its market share further through advancements in battery technologies and component sales [4].

Group 1 - The A-share market showed positive performance last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.49%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.57%, and the ChiNext Index by 5.85, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at a potential interest rate cut in September, contributing to a rally in U.S. stock indices, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a new high [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to accelerate breakthroughs in key technologies such as GPU chips, aiming to enhance the quality of computing power resources [4] Group 2 - Nvidia requested some suppliers to halt production of the H20 chip, reflecting ongoing supply chain dynamics in the semiconductor industry [5] - The National Development and Reform Commission introduced new rules for internet platform pricing behavior, aiming to enhance transparency and regulate competitive practices in the platform economy [6] - A new policy for the rare earth industry was released, implementing total control over rare earth mining and processing, which may impact supply and pricing in this critical sector [7] Group 3 - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association called for self-discipline within the industry to combat unhealthy competition and maintain fair market order [8] - Canada announced the cancellation of several retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, which may influence trade dynamics between the two countries [9] Group 4 - Various securities firms provided insights on market trends, with a consensus on the continuation of a "slow bull" market driven by long-term capital inflows and sector rotation [11][12][17] - The focus on technology and innovation sectors is highlighted, with recommendations to invest in areas such as AI, robotics, and new energy [17][18] - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic, supported by favorable economic indicators and potential easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [19][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - This week, industrial silicon prices decreased by 0.68%, and polysilicon prices dropped by 2.53%. The industrial silicon futures market showed a volatile trend of first falling and then rising, while the polysilicon futures market oscillated at a high level [4]. - Looking ahead, in the industrial silicon market, supply is expected to increase in the southwest region due to the deepening of the wet season, but demand from the three major downstream industries remains flat overall. For polysilicon, supply is increasing while demand is weakening, and the market is likely to face further adjustments and continue to oscillate [4]. - In terms of operations, it is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon oscillates within the range of 8000 - 9000, with a stop - loss range of 7500 - 9500. The main contract of polysilicon is expected to oscillate in the short term, within the range of 46000 - 53000, with a stop - loss range of 44000 - 55000 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures first fell and then rose this week, while polysilicon futures oscillated at a high level. After reaching over 52000, the polysilicon price dropped again due to low market acceptance of high - priced goods [4]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply in the southwest is expected to increase as the wet season deepens, but demand from downstream industries shows different trends. Organic silicon demand is negative, while polysilicon demand is expected to increase in August but may be limited in the long term. Aluminum alloy demand remains stable [4]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening due to factors such as weak terminal demand and a supply - strong and demand - weak market structure in the photovoltaic industry [4]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract of industrial silicon should be mainly range - bound, and the main contract of polysilicon should oscillate in the short term, with specific ranges provided [4]. 2. Spot and Futures Markets - **Price Movements**: This week, both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. Industrial silicon spot prices decreased, and the basis narrowed. Polysilicon spot prices increased, and the basis strengthened [4][10][14]. - **Output and Capacity Utilization**: As of August 21, 2025, the national industrial silicon output was about 79,800 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 54.95%. The output and capacity utilization rate remained unchanged this week [20]. 3. Industry Situation - **Cost and Price**: This week, the raw materials for industrial silicon decreased, and electricity prices remained stable during the wet season, keeping the overall cost low. The price of aluminum alloy increased, and the inventory increased significantly [23][45]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 21, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 51,166 lots, a net increase of 465 lots [30]. - **Downstream Industry**: - **Organic Silicon**: Output and the operating rate decreased, and profits declined due to cost and price changes [32][37][43]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The inventory increased significantly, and it is expected that the demand for industrial silicon will remain weak [45][47]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell**: Prices remained flat, which is expected to drag down the demand for polysilicon [52][57]. - **Polysilicon Industry**: Costs decreased, profits and output increased, indicating that the industry is gradually improving [59][62].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of photovoltaic glass has rebounded, with the mainstream price of 2.0mm coated (panel) photovoltaic glass at 11 yuan/square meter as of August 8, up from the previous week, and the 3.2mm coated mainstream price at 18 yuan/square meter, remaining flat from the previous week. The price increase in August was mainly driven by an industry internal meeting, and the price - holding efforts of glass groups were effective. - Supply in the photovoltaic glass industry remained stable last week, with no cold - repairs or production cuts in production lines, and it is expected to remain stable this week. - Due to the possible cancellation of export tax - rebates for downstream component manufacturers, many component factories are increasing production in the short term, which boosts the consumption of photovoltaic glass. - As the consumption of photovoltaic glass increases, the supply - demand gap in the industry has further narrowed. The industry inventory has decreased for multiple consecutive weeks, and the current actual inventory is within a normal range, with no inventory pressure on manufacturers. - With the increase in the price of photovoltaic glass, the industry's profit has also recovered recently. - After the price increase of photovoltaic glass, it has become the mainstream transaction price, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term. [1][7] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Photovoltaic Glass Weekly Outlook - Supply: Supply remained stable last week with no cold - repairs or production cuts in production lines, and is expected to stay stable this week [7][11]. - Demand: Due to the possible cancellation of export tax - rebates for downstream component manufacturers, many component factories are increasing production in the short term, driving up the consumption of photovoltaic glass [7][20]. - Inventory: As consumption rises, the supply - demand gap narrows, inventory has decreased for multiple weeks, and the current inventory is in a normal range with no pressure on manufacturers [7][23]. - Cost - profit: With the price increase, the industry's profit has recovered [7][26]. - Price trend: After the price increase, it has become the mainstream transaction price, and the price is expected to be stable in the short term [7]. 2. Overview of the Domestic Photovoltaic Glass Industry Chain Data 2.1 Photovoltaic Glass Spot Price - As of August 8, the mainstream price of 2.0mm coated (panel) photovoltaic glass was 11 yuan/square meter, up from the previous week, and the 3.2mm coated mainstream price was 18 yuan/square meter, remaining flat from the previous week. The price increase in August was driven by an industry internal meeting [8]. 2.2 Supply End - Supply remained stable last week with no cold - repairs or production cuts in production lines, and is expected to remain stable this week [11]. 2.3 Demand End - Due to the possible cancellation of export tax - rebates for downstream component manufacturers, many component factories are increasing production in the short term, boosting the consumption of photovoltaic glass [20]. 2.4 Inventory End - Due to the increased production of component factories, the consumption of photovoltaic glass has increased, the supply - demand gap has narrowed, inventory has decreased for multiple weeks, and the current inventory is in a normal range with no pressure on manufacturers [23]. 2.5 Cost - Profit End - With the price increase of photovoltaic glass, the industry's profit has recovered recently [26]. 2.6 Trade End - From January to June 2025, China's photovoltaic glass export volume increased by 9.7% compared with the same period in 2024 [33].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][19]. Core Views - The company is currently facing short-term performance pressure due to a downturn in the photovoltaic industry, but its electronic materials and functional film businesses are growing rapidly, creating a second growth curve with clear long-term growth momentum [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 22,589 million, with a year-on-year growth of 19.7%. However, a decline of 15.2% is expected in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 10.1%, 10.6%, and 12.9% in the subsequent years [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,850 million in 2023, with a decrease of 29.3% expected in 2024, before rebounding to 1,691 million in 2025, and reaching 2,890 million by 2027 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is estimated to be 0.71 in 2023, dropping to 0.50 in 2024, and then increasing to 1.11 by 2027 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline to 8.0% in 2024, before recovering to 14.7% by 2027 [4]. Target Price - The target price for the company is set at 17.00 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 25 times the estimated EPS for 2025 [12]. Business Growth Drivers - The company has established itself as a leader in the domestic photosensitive dry film market, with significant sales growth expected in 2024, projected to reach 15,933.90 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 37.97% [12]. - The functional film materials business, including aluminum-plastic films and RO support films, is also expected to accelerate growth, driven by increasing demand in the new energy vehicle and water resource treatment markets [12].

Group 1 - IMF has significantly raised China's economic growth forecast for this year by 0.8 percentage points [1] - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade president met with representatives from the US-China Business Council [1] - The National Postal Administration held a symposium with express delivery companies [1] Group 2 - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that some media reports on the photovoltaic industry "anti-involution" are severely inconsistent with actual conditions [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority released a series of documents regarding the regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers, effective from August 1 [1] - Jiangsu Province's Medical Insurance Bureau announced the pricing for medical services related to brain-computer interfaces, with a non-invasive brain-computer interface adaptation fee set at 966 yuan per session [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: Driven by the continuous push of the macro "anti - involution" sentiment, the industrial silicon futures and spot prices have rebounded in resonance, and the market has gradually stabilized above 9,500 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a firm short - term trend. However, after the price rebound, the selling hedging pressure above the market may increase, which may stimulate production - cut enterprises to resume production. The actual production dynamics of silicon enterprises should be continuously monitored [1]. - Polysilicon: Since the end of June, driven by the supply - side reform expectation and spot price increase, the polysilicon market has continued to rise, reaching a new high since listing. It is expected to maintain a relatively strong consolidation in the short term, but the risk of chasing long positions is high, and cautious operation is recommended. The price transmission situation in the industrial chain and the warehouse receipt registration situation should be continuously monitored [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.03% to 9,850 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon increased by 0.98% to 10,350 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 1.73% to 9,690 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: On July 24, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 53.5 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons compared with last week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses remained unchanged at 12 tons, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses (including unregistered warehouse receipts and spot parts) decreased by 1.2 tons to 41.5 tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: On the supply side, large northern factories have production - cut plans with no resumption news yet. The southwest production area is about to enter the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise operation, but the resumption speed is slow. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the supply may decrease. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and some silicon material factories plan to resume production in July, which will bring some demand increase. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but the demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. The operation of domestic monomer enterprises is mixed, and the overall operation has declined, further weakening the demand for industrial silicon. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream has insufficient willingness to stock up at low levels [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The price of N - type dense material remained unchanged at 45 yuan/kg; the price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 46 yuan/kg; the price of N - type mixed material remained unchanged at 43.5 yuan/kg; the price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 44 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 7.36% to 53,765 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output is expected to increase slightly, with the July output expected to approach 110,000 tons. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is generally weak, with an increase in the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials. Recently, due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, the price of downstream silicon wafers has followed the increase, and the transaction atmosphere has improved. However, the demand was greatly overdrawn by the rush to install in the first half of the year, and the terminal market is still weak [1].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The antimony market is expected to stabilize and rise due to anticipated export recovery, similar to trends observed in rare earths and tungsten [1] - The global antimony production from 2014 to 2024 is projected to have nearly zero growth, with China dominating global production at 70% [1][5] - Antimony demand in China has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3% over the past five years, primarily driven by the photovoltaic (PV) industry [1][5] - Current visible antimony inventory is at a five-year low of 3,000-4,000 tons, with hidden inventory cleared last year, reducing future inventory pressure [1][5] Core Insights - The antimony sector is expected to benefit from a risk-on sentiment in the industrial metals market due to a liquidity easing environment [2] - Export recovery is anticipated to drive a reversal in marginal demand, with low-price optimism potentially reversing in the near term [2] - The long-term outlook for antimony remains bullish, supported by supply-demand dynamics, inventory levels, and funding factors [2][5] Marginal Demand Analysis - A marginal demand table has been constructed to predict price reversals based on PV glass export and import data [3] - The table successfully predicted price reversals in October 2024, March 2025, and May 2025, correlating with changes in export volumes and marginal demand [3][4] Long-term Bull Market Factors - Supply-side constraints are evident, with a compound growth rate of only 0.16% in global antimony mining from 2014 to 2024 [5] - The domestic TPU production in China has decreased by 17% year-on-year, with imports down 48% [5] - Demand from the PV sector is expected to remain resilient despite potential short-term declines, supported by price control policies [5] Recommended Companies - Companies to watch include Huaxi Nonferrous, Hunan Gold, and Huayu Mining, with a specific recommendation for Yuguang Gold Lead due to its low valuation and significant by-product recovery [6] - Yuguang Gold Lead has seen a doubling in small metal recovery revenue and a quadrupling in gross profit since 2019, with stable costs [6] - The company is currently valued at less than 8 times earnings, presenting a potential investment opportunity if the antimony sector fully activates [6]

Group 1 - The company expects a net loss attributable to shareholders in the range of 15 million to 20 million yuan for the current reporting period, a significant decline of 210.69% to 247.59% compared to a profit of 13.55 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The basic earnings per share are projected to be a loss of 0.08 to 0.10 yuan per share, compared to a profit of 0.07 yuan per share in the previous year [1] - The decline in performance is attributed to a rapid decrease in product prices and inventory impairment, following a short-term surge in demand and a quick rebound in the sales price of photovoltaic glass [1] Group 2 - The company plans to continue practicing industry self-discipline and rational capacity planning to maintain stable and orderly operations amid challenges in the photovoltaic industry [2] - The company aims to accelerate its overseas industrial layout to enhance global competitiveness [2]

合盛硅业(603260.SH)公告称，合盛硅业预计2025年上半年归属于母公司所有者的 净利润亏损3亿元-4亿 元，同比由盈利转为亏损。业绩变动主要原因是工业硅下游需求疲软， 光伏行业开工率低，工业硅和 多晶硅价格持续下行，导致公司销售价格下滑，叠加光伏板块停工损失及存货跌价准备影响，公司出现 阶段性亏损。 ...