Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations, while indicating potential future rate cuts depending on mid-term inflation pressures and global economic uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The RBNZ's decision to keep the interest rate unchanged reflects a cautious approach towards the current economic outlook, despite some members advocating for a reduction to 3% to support economic activity [1]. - The current inflation rate in New Zealand stands at 2.5%, which is above the RBNZ's target range of 1%-3% [1]. - The RBNZ anticipates that the annual consumer price inflation rate may rise to the upper limit of the target range by mid-2025 but is expected to gradually decline to around 2% by early 2026 [1]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Risks - The RBNZ acknowledges that global policy uncertainties, rising trade protectionism, and tariff issues are hindering economic growth and may delay New Zealand's economic recovery [1]. - Analysts suggest that the market has already priced in the RBNZ's decision, with future focus shifting to the bank's assessments of inflation, tariffs, and global economic data [2]. - The RBNZ's future monetary policy will adopt a "data-dependent" approach, with upcoming economic indicators and geopolitical changes being crucial for decision-making [2].

Group 1 - The global economic uncertainty remains high, with unclear implications from U.S. tariffs and responses from other countries, although financial markets have rebounded due to the avoidance of extreme scenarios [3] - Domestic private demand is gradually recovering, with actual household income increasing and some financial pressure indicators easing, despite some industries reporting weak demand [3] - Labor market indicators show continued tightness, with low underemployment rates and widespread labor shortages reported by businesses [3] Group 2 - The silver market experienced fluctuations, opening at $37.15, reaching a high of $37.217, and closing at $36.761, forming a long lower shadow hammer pattern [4] - The silver price is currently trading around $36.77, with potential targets for downward movement at $36.6 and $36.4 [4] - The market sentiment indicates a cautious approach, with recommendations for short positions above $37 and preparation for potential exits [4]

声明中还强调，全球经济不确定性高企，尤其是美国关税政策演变或对贸易活动及企业投资决策造成冲 击。尽管澳大利亚受美国关税直接影响有限（钢铁、铝等行业除外），但生产力委员会模型显示，全球 贸易政策不确定性可能拖累澳GDP增长0.37%。国内方面，劳动力市场仍紧张，工资增速高位徘徊，叠 加生产率疲软导致单位劳动力成本高企，加剧通胀压力。 （文章来源：新华财经） 澳洲联储明确维持物价稳定与充分就业为首要目标，承认私人需求复苏步伐或慢于预期，但领先指标显 示劳动力市场存超预期韧性可能。声明特别提及货币政策将保持灵活，若国际动态对澳大利亚经济产生 实质影响，将"果断应对"。 新华财经北京7月8日电（崔凯）澳洲联储意外决定将现金利率目标维持在3.85%，未如市场预期降息25 个基点。尽管自2022年峰值以来，通胀已显著下降，并且当前利率较五个月前已下调50个基点，但鉴于 全球经济不确定性高企以及贸易政策对经济活动的潜在负面影响，委员会认为需等待更多信息以确认通 胀可持续回落至2-3%的目标区间。 澳洲联储承诺将密切关注数据变化和风险评估的发展，以指导未来政策决策。值得注意的是，本次会议 决议以6票赞成、3票反对通过，反映了 ...

德国机械制造业呼吁美欧尽快化解贸易争端 智通财经7月2日电，德国机械设备制造商联合会发布最新数据显示，今年5月，德国机械和设备制造业 实际新订单量同比增长9%。尽管去年同期基数较低，但在当前全球不确定性较高，尤其是美欧贸易摩 擦持续的背景下，这一增长仍被业界视为积极信号。德国机械设备制造商联合会首席经济学家约翰内斯 ·格尔南特当天在一份声明中表示，订单数据反映出行业对下半年形势"谨慎乐观"的预期。他坦言，全 球经济不确定性依然突出，特别是在当前美欧贸易争端未解决的背景下，亟需欧盟与美国尽快达成协 议，避免局势进一步升级。 ...

【冠通研究】 易涨难跌 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 1 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜低开高走尾盘拉涨。中国 6 月官方制造业 PMI 连升两月至 49.7，新订单指 数回升至扩张区 16040 间，非制造业延续扩张。特朗普的高级贸易官员正在缩减与外国 达成全面对等协议的雄心，寻求达成范围更小的协议，以避免美国重新征收关税。伊朗 驻联合国大使强势表态：铀浓缩是伊朗不可剥夺的权利，永远不会停止！基本面来看， 供给端，截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，现货粗炼费为-43.56 美元/干吨，现货精炼费为-4.35 美分/磅。目前铜冶炼端偏紧预期暂时只反映在数据上，铜供应量依然在走强；库存端全 球铜库存去化，其中套利驱使下，伦铜大幅去化，美铜依然在快速累库，国内目前铜去 化幅度较缓，主要系逢低拿货为主。需求端，截至截至 2025 年 5 月，电解铜表观消费 136.35 万吨，相比上月涨跌+8.08 万吨，涨跌幅+6.30%。受铜关税事件影响，铜出口需 求增加，带动表观消费量的提振。全球经济不确定性的影响下，终端市场相对疲软，下 游也多以逢低拿货及刚需补货为主，6 月系消费淡季阶段，终端家电排产减少，高温下 房地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is facing increasing volatility in inflation, which is influenced by global economic uncertainties and supply shocks [1] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - ECB President Lagarde highlighted that uncertainty will continue to be a major characteristic of the global economy, potentially leading to more unstable inflation [1] - The ECB concluded that "appropriate and forceful or persistent" policy actions are necessary to ensure that price growth returns to the target level of 2% [1] - Lagarde acknowledged that while the ECB expects inflation rates to remain around this target in the coming years, there are risks due to changes in corporate pricing behavior [1] Group 2: Global Economic Environment - The global environment has fundamentally changed in the years following the pandemic, leading to a new era characterized by uncertainty and supply shocks [1] - Companies are adapting their pricing strategies more rapidly in response to these changes, contributing to inflation instability [1] - Lagarde emphasized that the future world is likely to be more uncertain, which may exacerbate inflation volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The G7 summit highlighted the internal divisions among member countries, exacerbated by the U.S. government's tariff policies, leading to increased global economic uncertainty [1][2][3] Group 1: G7 Summit Dynamics - The 51st G7 summit in Canada failed to produce a joint communiqué, reflecting deep-seated divisions and a lack of consensus among member states [1] - The summit was marked by a tense atmosphere due to the looming deadline for U.S. tariff policies, which overshadowed discussions on other global issues [2] - The U.S. maintained a hardline stance on its tariff policies, undermining collective efforts to address climate change and economic recovery [2] Group 2: Economic Implications - The G7's economic representation has diminished, with increasing reliance on the U.S. and a lack of unified response to its unilateral trade actions [3] - The ongoing tariff risks could lead to a projected global economic contraction of $1 trillion by 2030 if current U.S. policies persist [3] - The internal conflicts within the G7 have intensified global economic uncertainty, countering expectations for a cohesive trade agreement [3]

Economic Performance - In the first quarter of 2025, the US economy contracted by 0.5% on a year-over-year basis, which was below expectations and undermined confidence in sustained economic growth [1][3] - The contraction is attributed to complex structural issues within the economy, with tariff policies significantly impacting both imports and exports [1][5] Trade Dynamics - The US saw an import growth adjustment to 37.9% and export growth adjusted to 0.4%, with net imports dragging down GDP by nearly 4.7 percentage points [3] - The reliance on imports has increased, exacerbating the trade deficit and highlighting the imbalance in the economic structure [3][6] Consumer Spending - Personal consumption expenditure, which accounts for about 70% of GDP, contributed only approximately 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in the first quarter, indicating a decline in consumer purchasing power [3][5] - Consumer confidence has weakened, particularly in an uncertain economic environment, which has become a significant factor in hindering economic growth [3][8] Tariff Policy Impact - The "America First" trade policy implemented by the Trump administration aimed to protect domestic manufacturing but resulted in increased prices for imported goods, raising production costs for US businesses [5][6] - This policy has inadvertently shifted the burden onto consumers, leading to a slowdown in overall economic growth [5][8] Global Economic Uncertainty - The interconnectedness of the US economy with global markets means that uncertainties in other major economies, such as China and the EU, directly affect US export growth [6][8] - The slowdown in global economic growth has led many US companies to reduce investment and production plans, further contributing to domestic economic contraction [6][8] Structural Issues - The current economic challenges reflect long-term structural problems, with the US economy's dependence on external markets making it vulnerable to global uncertainties [8] - Addressing these structural issues, including reducing reliance on imports and adjusting trade strategies, is crucial for sustainable economic growth in the future [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Jerome Powell, emphasizes its independence from political pressures, particularly in response to President Trump's calls for rapid interest rate cuts, opting instead for a patient approach to assess the economic impact of tariff policies [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Environment - Trump's high tariff policies aim to reshape U.S. manufacturing and reduce trade deficits but have led to increased costs for consumers and businesses, contributing to inflationary pressures [3][6]. - The current U.S. economy appears stable, with inflation rising but not yet spiraling out of control, as the Federal Reserve maintains a high benchmark interest rate of 4.25% to 4.50% since December [3][6]. - Powell's focus on preventing temporary price spikes from becoming sustained inflation reflects the Fed's role as a guardian of monetary policy [3][4]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Trump's public pressure on Powell for interest rate cuts is seen as a political maneuver to boost his support among voters, risking economic overheating and potential crises [4][9]. - The Fed's independence is crucial for avoiding short-term political pressures that could destabilize the economy, with Powell's stance serving as a model for global economic management [7][9]. Group 3: Global Implications - The interconnectedness of the global economy means that U.S. policy decisions, such as interest rate changes, can have far-reaching effects, potentially destabilizing financial markets if not handled cautiously [6][10]. - Powell's cautious approach is viewed as stabilizing for global markets amid rising geopolitical risks and trade tensions, helping to maintain the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [6][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Upcoming economic data, including employment, manufacturing, consumer confidence, and inflation indicators, will significantly influence the Fed's decision-making process [9][10]. - The ability of Powell and the Fed to maintain policy independence and rationality will be critical for both U.S. and global economic stability moving forward [9][10].

Group 1 - The World Economic Forum's 2025 Global Economic Outlook predicts a decline in global economic growth to 2.3% from a previous forecast of 2.7%, with trade uncertainty being a key factor affecting economic prospects [1] - Experts at the Summer Davos Forum highlighted that uncertainty is the main theme of the year, leading to reduced corporate investment and cautious consumer spending, although a predicted global recession has not yet materialized [1] - Some countries, such as the US and China, have seen varying economic outcomes, with the US experiencing a slowdown but without catastrophic consequences, while China and Ireland have increased export trade to boost their economies [1] Group 2 - The Minister of Sustainable Development from Bahrain indicated that alliances among certain countries are not aimed at market openness but rather at establishing higher trade barriers, which could exacerbate global economic fragmentation [2] - A report from the World Economic Forum earlier this year warned that increasing economic fragmentation could pose significant risks to the global economy [3]