Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold price fell on May 16, recording its largest weekly decline in six months, primarily due to a stronger dollar and reduced concerns over the US-China trade war, which diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][2] - As of the report, spot gold dropped by 1.83% to $3,181.19, with a daily low of $3,154, marking a nearly 4% decline for the week, the worst since November of the previous year [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by approximately 58 basis points by the end of the year, a significant reduction from the 120 basis points anticipated during the peak of panic in April [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold's price action on Friday mirrored that of Thursday, with a significant drop followed by a potential rebound, indicating a possible double bottom formation [2][4] - The key support levels are identified at $3,152 and $3,140, while resistance is noted at $3,210-3,212, suggesting a wide trading range for the upcoming week [4] - The strategy for the upcoming week is to focus on buying on dips above $3,150 and selling on rallies, with a close watch on the resistance and support levels [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - On May 16, international oil prices experienced slight upward movement, trading around $61.98 per barrel, following a significant drop the previous day due to easing global trade tensions [5] - The market's concerns regarding oil demand were alleviated by a temporary suspension of tariffs between major economies, which is expected to help mitigate fears of a global economic slowdown [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The mid-term outlook for oil prices remains bearish, with the price expected to test lower levels around $50 after a series of fluctuations [6] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on selling on rallies, with key resistance levels at $63.50-64.00 and support levels at $60.5-60.0 [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold price fell on May 16, with a potential for the largest weekly decline in six months, driven by a stronger dollar and reduced concerns over the US-China trade war, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] - As of the report, spot gold decreased by 1.83% to $3,181.19, with a weekly drop exceeding 3%, marking the worst weekly performance since November 2024 [2] - The market has adjusted its expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, now anticipating a reduction of about 58 basis points this year, down from a peak of 120 basis points during the panic in April [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - On the daily chart, gold showed a strong bullish reversal after hitting a low of 3,120, with a target to test the upper channel at 3,500-3,438, provided that the 3,120 level holds [3] - The recent trading has been influenced by the timing of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, with key resistance at 3,211-3,212 [3] - Short-term analysis indicates a potential for a second bottom test followed by a rebound, with critical resistance at 3,211-3,212 and support levels at 3,150 and 3,140 [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - On May 16, international oil prices experienced slight upward movement, trading around $61.98 per barrel, following a significant drop the previous day [6] - The rebound was attributed to easing global trade tensions, which alleviated concerns about the global economy and oil demand, despite ongoing supply surplus pressures [6] - Oil prices had previously fallen over 2% due to comments from President Trump regarding nearing a nuclear deal with Iran, although key differences remain unresolved [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The mid-term outlook for oil prices indicates downward pressure from the moving average system, with expectations of a decline towards the $50 level after a series of price fluctuations [7] - Short-term trends show oil prices testing the $60 support level, with a potential for a small upward movement before facing resistance around $63.50 [7] - The recommended trading strategy suggests focusing on short positions during rebounds, with key resistance at $63.5-$64.0 and support at $60.5-$60.0 [7]

南方中心董事、中国公共外交协会会长吴海龙表示，美国滥施关税影响发展中国家贸易与经济，冲击产 业链供应链合作，造成金融市场动荡。中方始终站在多边主义、公道正义和国际社会共同利益一边，希 望与国际社会加强合作、共同应对。 与会各方积极呼应中方发言，强调应坚持开放合作、互利共赢，共同维护好多边贸易体制，一致认为应 加强南南贸易合作，发挥好贸易对发展的促进作用，共同落实联合国2030年可持续发展议程。(新华社) 中国常驻联合国日内瓦代表团与南方中心8日在瑞士日内瓦万国宫共同举办"全球贸易紧张局势对发展中 国家影响"对话会，就发展中国家团结合作应对美国滥施关税行径展开讨论，共30多个发展中国家参 加。与会代表表示，关税等单边主义措施冲击全球经济和发展中国家经济社会发展，各方应加强对话合 作，妥善处理分歧。 中国常驻联合国日内瓦办事处和瑞士其他国际组织代表陈旭发言指出，美国"对等关税"是典型的单边主 义、保护主义做法，剥夺了发展中国家的发展机遇，严重冲击全球经济和贸易秩序。中国始终坚持开放 合作、互利共赢，将加强与其他发展中国家合作，继续维护以联合国为核心的国际体系和以世贸组织为 核心的多边贸易体制。 ...

当地时间8日，中国常驻联合国日内瓦代表团与南方中心在日内瓦万国宫共同举办"全球贸易紧张局势对 发展中国家影响"对话会，重点就发展中国家团结合作应对美国滥施关税行径展开讨论，30多个发展中 国家参加。与会代表纷纷表示，关税等单边主义措施冲击全球经济和发展中国家经济社会发展，各方应 加强对话合作，妥善处理分歧。(央视新闻) ...

英国央行将实施去年8月以来的第四次降息。面对特朗普关税对全球经济的影响，市场将密切关注英国 央行是否会释放加快降息步伐的信号。 自去年6月以来，欧洲央行已经降息了七次。华尔街见闻此前提及，在关税的冲击下，市场预期欧洲央 行6月及以后将继续降息。 美联储周三按兵不动，但指出经济前景的不确定性已经增加，失业率和通胀率上升的风险均有所提高。 自去年9月以来，美联储连续三次降息，幅度100个基点。 投资者目前完全预期到2025年底前英国央行将再实施三次降息，这将使基准利率从目前的4.5%降至 3.5%。 5月8日，据报道，在今天的货币政策会议上，英国央行预计将基准利率下调25个基点至4.25%。 英国央行行长贝利（Andrew Bailey）一直强调需要采取"渐进、谨慎"的降息策略。然而，贝利最近强调 了全球贸易紧张局势对经济构成的风险。 分析认为，由于特朗普关税政策加剧全球贸易紧张局势，英国央行将不得不重新评估其经济预测。今 天，英国央行将发布最新的经济预测，投资者将从中观察未来降息步伐的信号。 英国央行降息步伐或加速 这将是自去年8月以来英国央行的第四次降息，步伐慢于美联储和欧洲央行，原因在于英国央行对劳动 力市 ...

越南总理：全球贸易紧张局势为重组经济和市场提供了机遇。 ...

Canalys（现已并入Omdia）研究数据显示， 2025年第一季度，全球智能手机市场同比增长1% 。尽管面临持 续的宏观经济下行、消费者信心疲软以及渠道库存出货延迟等挑战，市场仍实现温和增长。三星以20%的市场 份额重夺全球第一 ， 苹果紧随其后，市场份额为18% 。 小米以14%的市场份额位居第三 ，与去年同期持 平； vivo与OPPO分别以8%的市场份额排名第四和第五 。 Canalys研究经理刘艺璇（Amber Liu）表示 ：" 尽管全球市场整体仍处于复苏进程中，但2025年第一季度的整 体环境比预期更加动荡。在 2024年末的强劲表现中，厂商纷纷向渠道 大量压货以争夺市场份额 ，但实际销售 （sell-through）低于预期，导致库存周期拉长，进而抑制了2025年初的出货动能（sell-in）。与2024年由疫情 后换机潮和大众市场价格优势推动的复苏不同， 今年的反弹显得更加脆弱 。" Canalys高级分析师Sanyam Chaurasia表示："受全球宏观经济挑战影响，消费者情绪依然谨慎，抑制了第一季 度本应出现的季节性增长。即便是在如斋月等关键市场的节庆期间，需求也低于预期。面对出货量 ...